Ethiopia will not formalise the maritime Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland Administration

[Deeq A.]

If Ethiopia proceeds with formalising the maritime Memorandum of Understanding with the Somaliland administration, it will lead to consequences such as severing diplomatic ties between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu.

Mogadishu (Comment) —  The Foreign Minister of Somaliland administration Essa Keyd told the BBC Somali Service that efforts were underway to formalise the maritime Memorandum of Understanding with Ethiopia. He claimed that Türkiye understands that Somaliland government “controls its seas” and that the maritime defence agreement between Türkiye and Somalia “does not concern Somaliland”.

Both claims were timed to give Muse Bihi Abdi, the President of Somaliland administration, an electoral advantage over his rivals. Upon signing the maritime MoU with the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in January 2024, Bihi claimed that Ethiopia would grant Somaliland administration diplomatic recognition in return for a 50-year lease on naval base for Ethiopia in the Northern coast of Somalia.

The maritime MoU casts Ethiopia as a rogue African state that hosts the African Union but chooses to play fast and loose with the key articles of the AU Charter on the sovereignty of member countries.

No African Union member state can enter into an agreement with a secessionist entity that violates the sovereignty of another member country. If Ethiopia proceeds with formalising the maritime Memorandum of Understanding with the Somaliland administration , it will lead to consequences such as severing diplomatic ties between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu. Ethiopia’s troops in Somalia operate under the ATMIS mandate. The Federal Government of Somalia will revoke the defence pact between the two countries and ask Abiy Ahmed to pull out  his troops in Somalia.  Al-Shabaab has begun to exploit the maritime MoU, described by the United States as a hindrance to operations by the Federal Government of Somalia to liberate territories under Al-Shabaab.

Abiy Ahmed cannot risk to turn his country into a pariah state by undermining the rules-based system that values sovereignty of United Nations member countries. The ability for Ethiopia to attract investors or enter into economic agreements with other countries will be adversely affected if Addis Ababa allows itself to be manipulated by a secessionist Somali administration. That will exacerbate the domestic, ethno-nationalist security situation with which Abiy Ahmed is grappling.

© Puntland Post, 2024

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