The Somaliland President and His Flawed Understanding of Geopolitics

[Deeq A.]

Bihi: “The West facilitated the break up of Sudan  when oil was discovered in South Sudan”.

Mogadishu (PP Editorial) — In his latest speech in Hargeisa on the murder a Somali aviation professional in Mogadishu the President of Somaliland Administration Muse Bihi Abdi claimed that “President Hassan Sheikh resorts to complaints” after the signing of the illegal maritime Memorandum of Understanding between Abiy Ahmed and Bihi. “The West facilitated the break up of Sudan when oil was discovered in South Sudan” said Bihi. His remarks are as politically absurd as what he said in Addis Ababa on 1/1/2024 :”Somaliland will lease a 20 KM coastal area to Ethiopia, and in return for the lease Ethiopia will recognise Somaliland as a country.”

Bihi’s only claim so far is that he managed to drag Ethiopia into geopolitical maelstrom from which it finds hard to extricate. Abiy Ahmed peddles conflicting arguments about Ethiopia’s relations with Somalia. He claims that Ethiopia played a role in building state institutions in Somalia. This claim is partly based on the defence pact Somalia signed with Ethiopia in 2014 and was renewed in December 2023. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud did not think through the decision to let Ethiopia deploy its troops to Somalia without being accountable to ATMIS (then AMISOM). Nor did President Mohamud seek professional advice before committing Somalia to agreements that jeopardise its sovereignty.

How can one explain the behaviour of Ethiopia for signing a defense pact with Somalia in December 2023, followed by the signing of an illegal maritime MoU with a secessionist entity in Northern Somalia in January 2024? Sovereignty has no a substantive meaning if it can be dispensed with easily in countries whose interests lie in protecting the world order.

The advisers of President Bihi forget that Ethiopia can benefit more from the state of political limbo (non-recognition) in which Somaliland administration is stranded. How would Ethiopia be able to cope with three countries with three Somali heads of state? Outlet to the sea for Ethiopia will upend the commercial advantages for Berbera and Djibouti Ports. Since the maritime agreement has no legal foundations Ethiopia will have the advantage to claim more coastal territories in Northern Somalia and Djibouti. Bihi now looks to the West for diplomatic recognition, but the West, like Ethiopia, wonders how North East Africa could cope with three Somali Presidents if Somaliland had been allowed to secede from the Federal Republic of Somalia. Bihi temporarily outwitted both President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Abiy Ahmed, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia.

© Puntland Post, 2024

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