Ethiopian incursions and MoU: Evaluating options for Somalia’s diplomacy and security

[Deeq A.]

Exclusive Summary

The Horn of Africa is witnessing increased tensions and strategic manoeuvring in its geopolitical environment. Ethiopia’s military actions in Somalia have further complicated the regional dynamics. This critical study examines the consequences of Ethiopian acts. It also evaluates the recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) agreement between Ethiopia and the breakaway part of Somalia, providing insight into Somalia’s choices for its diplomatic and security strategies. The involvement of the Ethiopian military in Somalia has been a recurrent and prominent aspect of the region’s historical events. The latest invasions, supposedly intended to combat terrorism and establish stability in the Somali, have raised questions over sovereignty and the possibility of more destabilisation. The geopolitical rationales behind Ethiopia’s engagement prompt inquiries about the genuine essence of the intervention and its repercussions on Somalia’s domestic matters. As per the (MoU) accord, the secession of a portion of Somalia adds extra complexity to the issue. Although agreements might serve as a means for resolving conflicts, the one-sided character of this separation raises concerns about the validity of such arrangements.  

The international community should thoroughly assess the circumstances behind this secession and its possible ramifications for regional stability. Nevertheless, the agreement has been scrutinised due to its insufficient openness and vagueness in crucial aspects. Detractors contend that the contract lacks explicit protocols for resolving conflicts and ensuring responsibility, creating opportunities for manipulation and abuse by either side. An essential dilemma for Somalia is managing its dependence on Ethiopia for security aid while safeguarding its interests and independence. The historical backdrop of tense ties between the two states, exacerbated by the intricate ethnic and tribal divisions inside Somalia, gives the scenario an extra level of intricacy. Achieving a delicate equilibrium between diplomatic contacts and security measures is paramount for Somalia to declare its sovereignty while safeguarding its security requirements. Somalia is now at a critical juncture in its diplomatic affairs. The country must carefully manage the intricate equilibrium between fostering regional collaboration and protecting its national interests. It is crucial to actively collaborate with foreign partners and organisations to adopt a multilateral strategy that effectively tackles security problems and promotes economic growth and political stability in Somalia.  

Somalia must thoroughly evaluate the consequences of its dependence on the Ethiopian military regarding security measures. External assistance is vital in addressing insurgency and terrorism, but it is also essential to have a comprehensive national plan that focuses on strengthening the domestic security system. To achieve long-term security, Somalia should allocate resources towards enhancing its military capabilities, training programmes, and intelligence infrastructure. This would help lessen reliance on foreign entities. Furthermore, Somalia should use its diplomatic interactions to get backing from the global community, promoting cooperative endeavours in tackling the fundamental factors contributing to instability in the area. Forging more robust relationships with neighbouring nations like Kenya, Djibouti, and Ethiopia may enhance Somalia’s foreign policy by promoting diversification and balance, ultimately benefiting Somalia’s interests. 

In conclusion, the Ethiopian invasions and the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) are substantial obstacles and prospects for Somalia. The country must traverse the complicated network of regional factors, long-standing hostilities, and internal intricacies to establish a path that guarantees security and independence. An intricate and calculated approach to diplomacy and investments in internal security capacities will be crucial in determining Somalia’s destiny in the unstable Horn of Africa.

Addis Ababa’s latest actions exacerbate the relationship

The relationship between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu has recently been characterised by growing tensions, with higher-ranking officials and diplomats playing a pivotal role in creating an environment of hostility. Addis Ababa’s recent moves, notably the submission of a letter to the UN Security Council, have worsened the situation. Many claim that the letter has inaccurately depicted the situation. Furthermore, President Bihi’s remarks in a recent interview have exacerbated the divide, especially on an agreement that Bihi has asserted to have military ramifications. The language used by prominent officials and diplomats has notably influenced the tense relationship between Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, and Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu. Diplomatic ties are established by cultivating mutual respect, comprehension, and unambiguous communication. Nevertheless, the current expressions and language have diverged from these ideals, leading to deteriorating communication and confidence between the two countries. 

Addis Ababa’s submission of a letter to the UN Security Council has exacerbated the situation. The letter, which discusses the current disputes between Ethiopia and Somalia, has faced criticism for its purported distortion of the facts. Engaging in such acts on the global platform threatens the image of the states concerned and weakens the trustworthiness of international organisations such as the UN Security Council. Ensuring openness and honesty is vital for promoting authentic collaboration among states and presenting inaccurate information to an international organisation establishes a worrisome precedent. 

The recent interview with President Bihi has intensified the situation, mainly due to his announcement that a bilateral deal between the Ethiopian and the breakaway part of Somalia includes creating a military facility. If this information is accurate, it would undeniably have substantial ramifications for the area’s stability. Nevertheless, the absence of transparency and openness about the specifics of this agreement prompts inquiries regarding the reasons and intents driving this action. The omission of subheadings in this critical analysis shows the interrelatedness of the discussed problems. The worsening ties between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu are being exacerbated by a series of factors, including using undiplomatic language, submitting a deceptive letter to the UN Security Council, and disclosing possible military consequences in a bilateral agreement. 

Ultimately, the latest measures implemented by Addis Ababa have unquestionably escalated the tensions with Mogadishu. The usage of sophisticated terminology by senior officials and diplomats, along with dubious presentations to international organisations, has fostered an atmosphere characterised by doubt and scepticism. The absence of unambiguous communication and openness about bilateral agreements exacerbates the fragility of regional stability. Both countries must communicate openly, prioritise transparency, and strive to restore a relationship based on mutual respect and understanding. 

Evaluating options for Mogadishu’s following diplomatic measures 

The diplomatic situation in Mogadishu has received significant attention, especially with the Ethiopian military’s involvement in Somalia and the recent interview with the ambassador to Somalia. Given the international community’s intensive scrutiny of these events, it is imperative to assess the potential diplomatic choices for Mogadishu carefully. Primarily, the departure of the Ethiopian soldiers from Somalia requires meticulous deliberation. The presence of foreign military troops on Somali territory has been a controversial matter, including issues about national autonomy and the sustainability of the situation in the long run. An essential reason for withdrawal is to promote self-sufficiency and self-rule in Somalia. The city can establish its sovereignty and reconstruct its institutions by granting Mogadishu the autonomy to govern its internal affairs without foreign military interference. 

Nevertheless, the departure must be carried out intelligently to avoid the creation of a power vacuum and associated security complications. A sudden departure might lead to instability; hence, it is crucial to implement a gradual pullout strategy that includes a well-defined plan for transferring security duties to Somali troops. Furthermore, it is essential to maintain open diplomatic lines to promote constructive communication between the two countries, ensuring the withdrawal is considered a joint decision rather than a one-sided move. Many factors come into play regarding the expulsion of the Ethiopian ambassador to Somalia after his interview. Expelling an ambassador is a significant diplomatic action with extensive and profound implications. Detractors contend that such measures can destroy crucial alliances, impede effective communication, and exacerbate geopolitical tensions. However, supporters of expulsion argue that it effectively communicates a clear message of disapproval, highlighting the seriousness of the remarks made during the interview. 

It is crucial to evaluate the possible advantages and disadvantages of this measure. Expulsion may be seen as a symbolic act of asserting independence and opposition to outside influence, but it can also limit opportunities for peaceful settlement and conversation. An alternative and calculated strategy may include filing an official objection, recalling the ambassador to explain, or pursuing mediation via regional or international organisations. In all scenarios, Mogadishu must be aware of the broader geopolitical ramifications. The Ethiopian military’s departure and the expulsion of an ambassador have the potential to impact regional politics and relationships significantly. Achieving equilibrium between promoting national interests and preserving diplomatic ties is a nuanced undertaking that requires meticulous deliberation of the possible ramifications.

To properly assess the effectiveness of these diplomatic actions for Mogadishu, it is crucial to have a sophisticated and discerning viewpoint. The strategic approach to the departure of the Ethiopian military is essential to achieve a smooth transition. At the same time, the choice of the ambassador should be taken with careful consideration of the long-term consequences on diplomatic ties. In the face of these obstacles, it is crucial to prioritise the welfare of the Somali population and strive for a future characterised by stability and the opportunity to make their own decisions. 

External Influences and Regional Proxy Conflicts 

The Horn of Africa has a history of geopolitical complications and historical rivalries. The situation between Somalia and Ethiopia reflects the complicated network of foreign influences and regional proxy battles that define the area. The main issue is the (MoU) between Ethiopia and the secessionist region of Somalia, worsened by the influential involvement of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a significant actor with essential interests in the area. This critical examination examines the dynamics involved and investigates the underlying elements that contribute to the tensions and their consequences for stability in the Horn of Africa. The (MoU) signed between Ethiopia and the self-proclaimed autonomous territory inside Somalia has been a source of intense regional conflict. The signature of this contentious pact has been driven by Ethiopia’s strategic interests in the Horn, its historical ties and territorial concerns. The agreement not only prompts inquiries over the authority of the Somali state but also exacerbates pre-existing divisions, intensifying ethnic and regional conflicts in Somalia itself. 

The involvement of other parties, notably the UAE, has significantly contributed to worsening the Somalia-Ethiopia rivalry. The UAE has been heavily engaged in the Horn of Africa, establishing military outposts and cultivating partnerships with other regional stakeholders. The UAE’s influence in Somalia has played a crucial role in assisting in areas seeking independence and forming alliances with individuals or groups that oppose the central government’s authority. The introduction of foreign assistance has exacerbated the division in the area, compromising efforts to achieve regional collaboration and stability. The Horn of Africa has immense strategic importance, and the area has become a battleground for proxy battles as foreign countries vie for control. The UAE’s engagement in Somalia signifies its broader geopolitical aspirations and exemplifies how foreign players may use existing divisions to further their objectives. The ramifications of such meddling are extensive since it not only obstructs regional integration but also impedes the capacity of local actors to tackle their difficulties. 

The intricate equilibrium of the Horn of Africa is further convoluted by the engagement of international organisations and neighbouring governments. The African Union and the United Nations, whose mission is to promote peace and stability, operate in a complicated environment where conflicting interests sometimes take precedence over regional collaboration. Adjacent nations, like Kenya and Djibouti, are also confronted with the repercussions of the Somalia-Ethiopia conflict since the instability in one country has a ripple effect that extends beyond its boundaries, without meddling from foreign actors. 

In conclusion, the ongoing dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia on the MoU highlights the more significant difficulties encountered in the Horn of Africa, a region characterised by foreign pressures and conflicts involving neighbouring countries. The UAE’s engagement, driven by geopolitical interests and affiliations, adds complexity to an already nuanced issue. To tackle the intricate challenges in the Horn of Africa, the global community must make a united and determined endeavour to confront the underlying reasons for instability, facilitate constructive discussions, and encourage collaboration among the neighbouring countries. This is essential to guarantee a secure and prosperous future for the area. 

By: Mohamed H Salad: Researcher and Analyst, Studied International Security & Peace Conflict, Specialist in the Horn of Africa, and Secretary of former President of Somalia Dr Abdikasim Salad Hassan (TNG).

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