Is Ethiopia’s disintegration inevitable?

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

53 minutes ago, maakhiri1 said:

please stop this revisionist history, Somalis were sacrificing for free Djibouti, do U think the French just handed over Djibouti? Where is Loyal Cade? This one of many  incidents for struggle for independence 

1976 Loyada Hostage Rescue Mission | French Foreign Legion Information

FOREIGNLEGION.INFO

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If you ask him who was Maxamuud Xarbi, a prominent ultra-Soomaaliweyn leader that led the struggles of Jabuuti gobonnimo from Xamar, he night draw a blank face. Dugsiga Maxamuud Xarbi ayaa ilaa iyo hadda Xamar ku yaalo.

Secessionist wax walba Soomaali dan u ah waaka soo horjeedaan, including their own dan. Reer Soomaali Galbeed saan uma dhaqmaan, Reer NFD saan ma'aha, Reer Jabuuti haba sheegin - it is only them with beyond the pale extreme cuqdad. Yaabkooda iyo yaabkiisa.

Haddee Soomaali rabin, ha iska guuraan, let them live among with cirfiidka iyo jaajuumka, anaga iyo dhulkeena amaan hana siiyaan.

[Illyria]

3 hours ago, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:

If you ask him who was Maxamuud Xarbi, a prominent ultra-Soomaaliweyn leader that led the struggles of Jabuuti gobonnimo from Xamar, he night draw a blank face. Dugsiga Maxamuud Xarbi ayaa ilaa iyo hadda Xamar ku yaalo.

Not only that, but M Xarbi was imprisoned, exiled, and eventually died whilst still fighting for Jibouti's independence, and its eventual union of Somalia. It was claimed he was assassinated. Not only Jibouti, but Somalia too. I now have greater respect for you knowing that you actually knew about Xarbi's role. Well done, mate!

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Yes xarbi and others fought for independence and prefered perhaps Some Somaliweyn ideals. but in the end  Abtidoon and others when that region gained independence they preffered to be independent and thats what matter. what does that have to do with anything , Sure there were some Somaliweyn sympathisers back then but it  all melted down , to the end to declare Djibouti Independent and not attach it to the Failed state called Somalia . Bal maanta ka so dhaadhiciya ina cumar geele oo 79 jir ah  ku soo biir bunkerka. bal aynu eegno halkay somaliweyn maskaxdisa kaga jirto , its non existend joojiya hadaba beenta

 

 

[Illyria]

The role of the Somali government, and military in Jibouti's independence, an account of a Sr military officers stationed in Lughaya in 1974 during the independence uprising.

 

[maakhiri1]

, there's a movie about the bus, and is the same I posted above,

[Che -Guevara]

Ethiopia’s Oromo rebels torch vehicles defying strike

bbc.com 

 

Ethiopian rebel group Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has burnt vehicles that ignored its call for a transport strike in the populous Oromia region, local media report.

Reports say many businesses, including banks and government offices have been closed since the strike was declared on Monday.

Several trucks were destroyed in various parts of Oromia during the strike that also left some civilians injured, privately-owned Wazema Radio news website reported.

"Unknown number of people were also reportedly injured in a grenade attack in Nekemt town, East Wollega Zone," it added.

The OLA claims to fight for self-determination of the Oromo people - Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group.

It was designated a terrorist organisation by the Ethiopian federal parliament in May 2021.

The national army continues to conduct operations against the rebel group.

 

 

[Tallaabo]

On 1/30/2024 at 11:14 PM, Che -Guevara said:

This begs the question will Muse be willing to give 20 km coast and a naval base to Somaligalbeed for ictiraaf

I don't think this will work because if Somali Galbeed becomes independent, they will be in a unique situation where they are officially landlocked but in reality have unlimited access to the sea and seaports. I mean who can stop maryoolay from peddling their cheap China made ware across the borders. I doubt the different authorities can even tax them properly. 

[Arafaat]

There were times that many Somali’s thought or assumed that the collapse of the state would lead to a much better alternative or times for everyone’s, which wasn’t the case across the board. And there were times that many believed waging a war against Ethiopia will lead to the unity of the Somali people and on the contrary the opposite happened and it led to disintegration.

So let us not assume this false that Ethiopian disintegration is in Somalia’s interest or Somali’s interest. Better focus on what’s in the interest of the Somali region, and I still think that one shouldn’t just wait for the outcomes of the power politicking in Addis, but think, conceive and nurture an alternative political pathways and narrative for the Somali region, such as seising the opportunity to steer the strengthening of economic, business, social and cultural ties between Somali region(Kilinka) and rest of Somali peninsula. 

 

[Che -Guevara]

2 hours ago, Arafaat said:

There were times that many Somali’s thought or assumed that the collapse of the state would lead to a much better alternative or times for everyone’s, which wasn’t the case across the board. And there were times that many believed waging a war against Ethiopia will lead to the unity of the Somali people and on the contrary the opposite happened and it led to disintegration.

So let us not assume this false that Ethiopian disintegration is in Somalia’s interest or Somali’s interest. Better focus on what’s in the interest of the Somali region, and I still think that one shouldn’t just wait for the outcomes of the power politicking in Addis, but think, conceive and nurture an alternative political pathways and narrative for the Somali region, such as seising the opportunity to steer the strengthening of economic, business, social and cultural ties between Somali region(Kilinka) and rest of Somali peninsula. 

 

Like the clan rebels that toppled Barre regime, I don't think they have any plan for the day after. They are not even doing much to secure the rights of Somalis within Ethiopia.

[Illyria]

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is at war with the Amhara and Oromo and he is beating the drums for a new war with Eritrea. He is talking publicly about Ethiopia’s greatness by taking a seaport by force of arms.

Tigray in the Eye of the Storm - Reinventing PeaceReinventing Peace

SITES.TUFTS.EDU

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Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is at war with the Amhara and Oromo and he is beating the drums for a new war with Eritrea. He is...

 

The ongoing military engagement of the ENDF against the Amhara Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Oromia, and the failures of its attempts to achieve battlefield victory, indicate that the ENDF today is less of an army and more of a gathering of conscripts in uniform.

According to sources of the Ethiopian government, Isaias has intensified that support. Now that his anti-Tigrayan alliance with Abiy is officially broken, he is also engaged in political rhetoric that emphasizes the incapability of Abiy’s regime to govern Ethiopia.

As well as responding defensively to whatever might come from Ethiopia, it is also possible that Isaias may opt for a pre-emptive attack, anticipating a war that he sees as inevitable, or escalate the conflict in Amhara region.

 

[Arafaat]

6 hours ago, Illyria said:

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is at war with the Amhara and Oromo and he is beating the drums for a new war with Eritrea. He is talking publicly about Ethiopia’s greatness by taking a seaport by force of arms.

Tigray in the Eye of the Storm - Reinventing PeaceReinventing Peace

SITES.TUFTS.EDU

---

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is at war with the Amhara and Oromo and he is beating the drums for a new war with Eritrea. He is...

 

The ongoing military engagement of the ENDF against the Amhara Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Oromia, and the failures of its attempts to achieve battlefield victory, indicate that the ENDF today is less of an army and more of a gathering of conscripts in uniform.

According to sources of the Ethiopian government, Isaias has intensified that support. Now that his anti-Tigrayan alliance with Abiy is officially broken, he is also engaged in political rhetoric that emphasizes the incapability of Abiy’s regime to govern Ethiopia.

As well as responding defensively to whatever might come from Ethiopia, it is also possible that Isaias may opt for a pre-emptive attack, anticipating a war that he sees as inevitable, or escalate the conflict in Amhara region.

 

I sense that’s what Abiy is also hoping for and preparing for, a war against Eritrea and hoping to unify Ethiopians in the toppling of the regime and catching of the sea there. He desperately hopes for a National cause to win, and this recipe has been successfully tried before by TPLF. 

[Che -Guevara]

11 hours ago, Arafaat said:

I sense that’s what Abiy is also hoping for and preparing for, a war against Eritrea and hoping to unify Ethiopians in the toppling of the regime and catching of the sea there. He desperately hopes for a National cause to win, and this recipe has been successfully tried before by TPLF. 

Soomaaliya waa cad meel yaala waiting to be snatched. If Abiy couldn't convince Ethiopians to steal the Somali coast, I don't think he can convince them to attack Eritrea which already has a presence in Tigray and is embedded with Fano.

That won't stop him from trying though.

[Illyria]

On 2/1/2024 at 2:14 PM, Arafaat said:

...many believed waging a war against Ethiopia will lead to the unity of the Somali people and on the contrary the opposite happened and it led to disintegration.

Point of historical correction: To be fair, we won the military encounters on the battle fields, but failed at politics and diplomatic bouts in foreign capitals. Consider reading Erich Honecker's & Fidel Castro's memoirs about the 1977 war, and how Warsaw favoured Ethiopia, which was on its knees, with Mingistu agreeing to Siyad's demands, and with divisions of Somali armies stationed some 60 miles outside of Adis awaiting the western front to collapse. As a young lad, I had the pleasure of meeting with one of Siyad's legal team luminaries round that time.

[Illyria]

Faysal Roble's analyses of the situation in Habasha is worthy of reading.

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State Decay: The case of Ethiopia and the Somali demand for self-determination

Over the spoils of the decaying state are three forces competing to shape Ethiopian political narrative.

• The first group calls for a central government that seeks to remove Article 39 that guaranteed the right of nations and nationalities for self-determination from the 1995 FDRE Constitution.
• The other group, from the newly formed opposition political party Sidama Federalist Party (SFP), to the oldest ones Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), as well as armed groups such as the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), Gambella Liberation Front (GLF),
• The third group largely comes from hitherto colonized peoples the ‘periphery’ such as the Somalis, Afaris, and the Sidama, among dozens of other nations, whose core beliefs in the right to self determination is sacrosanct, and seem to settle for either complete independence or a functioning multinational democratic federal system.

https://wardheernews.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/State-Decay-The-case-of-Ethiopia-By-Faisal-Roble.pdf

[Che -Guevara]