Abdullahi Yusuf: The besieged Mayor of Baidoa city.

[RedSea]

Somali President: The Besieged Mayor of Baidoa City

 

 

Colonel Abdullahi Yussuf—the current president of virtually demised Somali regime—is about to be deposed. His government barely controls Baidoa city, the seat of his infamous foreign-imposed puppet regime, much less run the rest of Somalia. The Somali fighters are now closing in on the capital, Mogadishu, and surrounding Baidoa. Too old to rule Somalia, too obtuse to comprehend the dirty game of realpolitik, militarily and politically defeated, Col. Yussuf—the besieged Mayor of Baidoa contemplates whether he should go into exile to England, or wait for his fate in his tribal enclave of Puntland.

 

As history will attest, Col. Yussuf—a notorious war criminal that will be known as the most disgraceful Ethiopian stooge—now has more faith in his feet than in his fist. Both the Ethiopian and his Puntland ragtag army are fleeing. As the clock ticks, death knell rings for his Transitional Federal Government TFG (or Tigray Founded Government) and no rescue mission appears on the horizon. (Tigray: the Ethiopian tribe that rules Ethiopia).

 

In October 2004, no sooner the International community parachuted Col. Yussuf into power than he demanded the deployment of foreign troops—not aid—to Somalia. And above all, under false pretext of fighting against terrorism in Somalia, the U.S. imprudently calculated that although the cruel warlord Col. Yussuf may not be the right leader for Somalia, he would brutally crush any terrorist suspects in Somalia. But in reality, he plunged thousands of innocent Somalis into abyss. And neighbouring countries—namely Ethiopia and Kenya—thought that they finally installed a client Somali regime in Mogadishu. After all, Col. Yussuf spent twenty eight years in Ethiopia and received his presidential inauguration in Kenya. Bingo! So while U.S. provided the logistics and intelligences, Ethiopia invaded Somalia in December 2006. Kenya also joined the feast and readied itself to imprison hundreds of fleeing Somali refugees and sent them to the Ethiopian torture champers—the Guantanamo Bay of Africa. But both U.S. and Somalia’s neighbours now realise that Somalis have the unyielding determination to fend off foreign occupiers.

 

The Ethiopian onslaught and the U.S. bombings slaughtered tens of thousands of Somalis and pulverised Somalia to dust, however; the Somalis neither surrendered to savage foreign troops, nor gave up removing pests—the TFG group—from Somalia. On the other hand, despite pouring millions of dollars into Col. Yussuf’s regime, it remained on life support from 2004 to 2008. Worse yet, it is just a matter of time before the plug is pulled out and the regime left to its own devices.

 

 

What Next?

 

Although the forceful eviction of the Ethiopian troops from Somalia, and the unavoidable prosecution of the Somali collaborators—the fifth column—bring euphoria and pride on the streets of ravaged Somali cities, a bleak future and an uncertainty lurks around the corner. If wise decisions are not made, just as the jubilant celebrations due to the collapse of the former in1991 were ensued by bloodshed, the current re-liberation of Somalia could be shattered by yet another mindless tribal war and revenge. A number of possible scenarios could take place after the TFG collapses.

 

First scenario: Alshabaab and the Islamic Court Union I.C.U could wrestle for control of the country and fight a bloody war in Southern Somalia. But the outcome is predictable. Remember, in 2006 when Ethiopia invaded Somalia the I.C.U fled the country, however; Alshabaab remained and fought in the streets of Mogadishu and elsewhere. That is, Alshabaab is not in the mood for sharing power with I.C.U; after all, Alshabaab re-liberated Somalia, so its battled-hardened fighters could overrun the I.C.U’s. But once Alshabaab annihilates its opponents, it won’t stop there.

 

Both Somaliland and Puntland we will be the next target. To the surprise of many Somalis, the founder of Alshabaab Ahmed Abdi Aw Mohamed hails from Somaliland. http://www.awdalnews.com/wmview.php?ArtID=10836 And although Alshabaab fighters will battle against Somaliland as to bring it back to Somalia, they will fight against Puntland as to eradicate those who collaborated with Ethiopia and the remnants of the disgraced TFG quisling leaders.

 

Puntland will desperately attempt to forge a military alliance against Alshabaab with Somaliland. But will Somaliland fall for Puntland’s deception again? In 2002 Col. Yussuf forced General Adde Musse (Gen. Adde)—the current leader of Puntland to go into exile to Somaliland. While in Somaliland capital Hargaisa, the defeated leader Gen. Adde promised that he will not claim the Somaliland regions of Sool and Eastern Sanag. Somaliland mediated the warring factions and Gen. Adde returned home. However, as soon as he became the president of Puntland, he attacked Somaliland to claim Sool and Eastern Sanag regions. What a nice payback!

 

As a result, many Somalilanders view him as a faceless backstabber who doesn’t deserve to be rescued from Alshabaab’s onslaught. That is, he should be left in the dust. Let him fight his battles, just once. However, others would argue that Somaliland should see the big picture of defeating Alshabaab, and the government should form a military alliance with Puntland. And the latter argument may well be the case.

 

Puntland is military and economically weak; after all, much of its resource has been drained by the TFG. Somaliland, on the other hand, has an estimated thirty thousands security forces. Its army is led by former Somali Army Generals and Colonels who fought against Ethiopia in 1977 ****** battle between Somalia and Ethiopia.

 

Furthermore, in the face of Alshabaab’s threat, without a doubt Somaliland population will vehemently defend their land. In other words, Alshabaab will not only find impossible to overrun well-trained and experienced Somaliland armed forces, but it will have to fight against 2.5 to 3 million determined Somalilanders.

 

Meanwhile, both Ethiopia, and U.S. forces in Djibouti will possibly provide training and military support for Somaliland troops as to stop Alshabaab advances against Somaliland territory. Somaliland Army could round up the invading Alshabaab forces, with or without help.

 

Also, many countries that are sympathetic towards Somaliland causes could unilaterally or multilaterally recognised Somaliland. Why hold back the recognition of a nation that has been peaceful and democratic for decades? Paradoxically, Puntland, TFG, I.C.U and Alshabaab agree on one thing and that is: Somaliland should never be an independent country.

 

From 2004 to 2008, the International community refused to recognise Somaliland because supposedly such a move would be a setback for the TFG’s “peace” process. What a load of nonsensical argument! What would be the excuse now? Perhaps the world is reluctant to recognise Somaliland as to avoid sabotaging Alshabaab fighters’ ambition to wreck havoc in Somaliland.

 

Second scenario: Ethiopia, Kenya and U.S. may leave no stones unturned as to avoid having Ashabaab-I.C.U in power. Ethiopia will continue supplying weapons to Puntland. And in fact, some of the worst Somali stooges such as, the former Somali Prime Minster Mr. Geedi, the Speaker of the Parliament Mr. Adan Madobe and Col. Yussuf himself supposed to meet in Puntland with the Ethiopian commanders to device yet another villain strategy to keep Somalia unstable. In the longer, if Puntland continues hosting Ethiopian troops and its Somali collaborators, Ashabaab-I.C.U forces will engage a fierce battle—not in Mogadishu this time but in the streets of Puntland cities.

 

Worse yet, because of Puntland’s unequivocal support for the TFG-Ethiopia cruel forces against Somalia, some Somalis strongly believe that Gen. Adde’s regime must be punished. Others—of course while they live comfortably in the hearts of Europe and North America—are calling for a wider war between major Somali tribes—namely ****** and ******. http://www.awdalnews.com/wmview.php?ArtID=10872 Puntland must not fall into the trap of hosting Ethiopian troops and the remnants of the TFG.

 

Third scenario: Alshabaab and I.C.U could form a coalition government and share power. But the Somalis will demand that both the names: Alshabaab and I.C.U to be dropped. The majority of the Somalis prefer a government that is based on notational identity over one that is built on religious character. If the coalition is formed successfully, rather than hunt down its former enemies—the Somali collaborators and the remnants of the TFG—a new leadership that employs Somaliland’s conflict resolution strategy could emerge. This new leadership may also seek cooperation with Puntland while giving Ethiopia and Kenya the assurance that Somalia’s violent storm is finally over. The victorious Somali leaders could in fact reach out both Ethiopia and Kenya to end hostilities between the East African people.

 

Moreover, it would be foolish for the new leaders not seek Somaliland's help—most important training Somalia’s security forces. On the other hand, Somaliland cannot nurture Alshabaab-I.C.U government that is bent to obstruct Somaliland recognition. That is, the Southern leaders must sign an agreement with Somaliland to end the emotional union between Somaliland and Somalia. For Somaliland the divorce process is irreversible, however; the government needs to stop acting like a stick-in-the-mud and find a negotiating partner. Somaliland’s unwilling to mediate between Somalia’s warring factions, became an obstacle to its [somaliland] recognition. Hargaisa ought to think outside the box. If the conditions are right, Somaliland may take the lead to rebuild Somalia’s stained leadership from bottom-up and convince the Southern leaders to adapt Somaliland’s home-grown and successful policies to conflict resolution. No more parachuting another foreign-imposed regime into Somalia.

 

However, for Somaliland helping the new Somali leaders is a classic example of catch22: if Hargaisa doesn’t assist Somalia to stand on its feet, Somaliland could remain in limbo because the U.N. demands that before Somalia and Somaliland separate both nations must be stable; and if Somaliland trains Somali security forces—they could eventually attack Somaliland as to force it back to Somali parcel.

 

To sum up, ironically, the same I.C.U that the U.S. once considered as an extremist group now holds the crown as the new “moderate” group, whereas Alshabaab takes I.C.U’s old seat—“extremists”.

 

While Somalis overwhelmingly support and admire the I.C.U and Alshabaab’s struggle against the Ethiopian Army, they disapprove either group to govern Somalia. In fact, Somalis prefer that these groups to melt into the background and a new government formed. Somalis know that if the preceding groups remain in power, Somalia may face decades of economic and political isolation. Neither Alshabaab’s “Conservative” Party, nor I.C. U’s “Liberal” Party has what it takes to rule Somalia and to have it engage with the International community.

 

It is time for the upcoming victorious Somali leaders to put down their guns and fight their battles in local and International courts. Seek justices for the raped Oceans of Somalia where nuclear waste dumped underneath the deep ocean seabed. Salvage the looted marine resource of Somalia: the millions of dollars worth of fish stolen by foreign fishing fleets—which now enjoy the protection of NATO, EU, and Indian navies. Seek justices for the tens of thousands of Somalis butchered during the Ethiopian occupation, as well as Somali villagers annihilated through U.S. bombings. Rescue the ruined nation of Somalia.

 

For these leaders, forgiving one other, adopting Somaliland’s approaches to conflict resolution, and signing peace treaties with Somalia’s fearful neighbours is the “audacity of hope”—not only for Somalia, but also for the entire East Africa. Will you give peace a chance?

 

 

Dalmar Kaahin

dalmar_k@yahoo.com

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Moreover, it would be foolish for the new leaders not seek Somaliland's help—most important training Somalia’s security forces. On the other hand, Somaliland cannot nurture Alshabaab-I.C.U government that is bent to obstruct Somaliland recognition. That is, the Southern leaders must sign an agreement with Somaliland to end the emotional union between Somaliland and Somalia. For Somaliland the divorce process is irreversible, however; the government needs to stop acting like a stick-in-the-mud and find a negotiating partner. Somaliland’s unwilling to mediate between Somalia’s warring factions, became an obstacle to its [somaliland] recognition. Hargaisa ought to think outside the box. If the conditions are right, Somaliland may take the lead to rebuild Somalia’s stained leadership from bottom-up and convince the Southern leaders to adapt Somaliland’s home-grown and successful policies to conflict resolution. No more parachuting another foreign-imposed regime into Somalia.

iga waleh wa xadiis dawlada somaliya waxay oo b ahantahay ciid dhex dhexaadiisa

[nuune]

it would be foolish for the new leaders not seek Somaliland's help—most important training Somalia’s security forces.

Is this guy appreciating my idea of Samaliland Peacekeepers to Mogadishu

[Paragon]

Alla maxaa caaddaa sare la duulayaa lol. Diyaaraddii wey duushay indeed!

[nuune]

^^^ Xillimaa ay soo dagaysaa talaw, meeja waanu ku cidloonee

[Paragon]

^Waa la duulin yaqaan, balse la ma dejin yaqaan! Duuliyihiina wuu hurdooday lol.

[Dhubad.]

^^Markii Riyaale jagada lagaqaado ayay bahashu cagadhigan...

[nuune]

^^ Oo haduu Faysal cali Waraabe qabsado meesha wax soo caga dhigto waa la weyn, outer space ayuu la aadi alien buu cunsiini

[Allamagan]

^oo hadduu FCW meesha qabsado geeddu way aay soo degi, danna uguma ay jirto taageerayaasha "waay duushay" in bahashani dib dhulka ugu soo noqoto.

[nuune]

^^^ lool, kama shaki qabo inuu FCW soo dajin, waa Pilot waalan, he is my fav politician by da way, waxba ma qariyo odeyga, wax unbuu seyraa

[Allamagan]

^ lool @ pilot waalan. ok mar lee ha loo dhiibo next level II ha geeye or ver WayDuushay 2.0 (dooms day)

[Jacaylbaro]

Your idea is working nuune ,,