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Donald Trump will be president again Second term

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What to expect from Colorado

 

The mountain state - which is traditionally Democratic - has been in headlines as of late for its court’s decision to kick Donald Trump off its ballots, citing 14th amendment laws which bar insurrectionists from running for office.

Earlier this week, the US Supreme Court unanimously ruled in favour of Trump, effectively reversing the decision and allowing him to run.

How many delegates? 37 for Republicans and 72 for Democrats.

Who will do best? Haley tends to perform better than Trump in Democratic states, but even with efforts to kick Trump off the ballot, his supporters in Colorado remained undeterred.

The former president remained on the ballot as his case before the US Supreme Court played out, and those who wanted to cast a vote for him can do so.

One piece of context: In Colorado’s primary elections, everyone can vote - meaning those unaffiliated with the Republican Party could cast their vote in the Republican presidential primary. How well Haley performs in this state could provide clues on Colorado’s overall support for Trump come November.

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Super Tuesday may underline Trump’s transformation of the GOP

Analysis by Ronald Brownstein, CNN

 

Updated 1:06 PM EST, Tue March 5, 2024

 

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CNN — 

Heading into Super Tuesday, former President Donald Trump remains on track to potentially win more primaries and caucuses than any previous Republican presidential candidate other than an incumbent.

His performance so far reflects his success at transforming the Republican Party in his image. He’s reshaped the GOP into a more blue-collar, populist and pugnacious party, focused more on his volatile blend of resentments against elites and cultural and racial change than the Ronald Reagan-era priorities of smaller government and active global leadership that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has stressed. The refusal of almost any GOP elected officials to endorse his last remaining rival – despite the qualms some of them hold about the direction Trump is imposing on the party –testifies to their recognition that the former president now commands nearly unquestioned loyalty from a majority of the GOP coalition.

RELATED ARTICLEWhat to know about Super Tuesday

But while the primaries have underscored Trump’s grip on the GOP, they have also demonstrated continued vulnerability for him in the areas where he has labored since he first announced his candidacy in 2015 – particularly among the white-collar suburban voters who mostly leaned toward the GOP before his emergence. The early 2024 nominating contests have shown that a substantial minority of Republican-leaning voters remain resistant to Trump’s vision. Even while posting such convincing victories, he has struggled with college-educated voters and moderates. Trump has carried only about 40% of independent voters who participated in the three contests where exit or entrance polls of voters have been conducted.

Capturing both strength and weakness, the presidential primaries, as always, have offered important clues about the direction of the party holding them. As Trump nears what could be a crushing performance Tuesday, here’s a look at some of the key lessons about the GOP suggested by the results, and patterns of support, from this year’s primaries.

The most important message from the primaries is the most straightforward: Trump’s coalition is the dominant faction in the GOP. Haley’s victory in Sunday’s low-turnout Washington, DC, primary will prevent Trump from winning every primary and caucus (as the past four incumbent GOP presidents have done.) But Trump is still faring better than any other Republican who was not an incumbent. (Reagan in 1980, Bob Dole in 1996, George W. Bush in 2000 and Mitt Romney in 2012 all won about 45 contests.)

Veteran GOP pollster Whit Ayres said the primaries have shown that Republican voters are viewing Trump, in effect, as an incumbent president to a greater extent than the other candidates expected. Trump is trying to become the first defeated incumbent to win a rematch four years later against the man who ousted him from the White House since Democrat Grover Cleveland beat Republican Benjamin Harrison in 1892. Trump “is running as a quasi-incumbent,” Ayres said. To understand his dominance, Ayres continued, “What we really need are entrance polls and exit polls from the 1892 Democratic coalition for Grover Cleveland. That’s the analogy: a former president running again to defeat the guy who beat him.”

Chris Wilson, who polled for the super PAC supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis during the primary, likewise said, “Trump’s lead in the GOP race at this point” is rooted in “the perception among a large number of GOP primary voters that Trump is effectively our incumbent candidate.” None of the other candidates, he said, “found the message that makes them think they should dump their de facto incumbent.”

Yet in important ways, Trump is a different candidate than he was in 2016. This time he’s much stronger among – and more reliant on – the party’s most conservative elements. In his first run, Trump attracted almost exactly the same level of support among voters who described themselves as very conservative, somewhat conservative and moderate, according to a cumulative analysis by Gary Langer of ABC News of all the exit polls conducted that year. This time – in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the three states where exit or entrance polls have been conducted – voters who describe themselves as very conservative have given him a much higher share of their votes than the other two groups; he’s lost moderates badly in all three states, never exceeding 28% of the vote among them.

Likewise, Trump is posting huge advantages this year among Republican voters who identify as White evangelical Christians, while facing a much closer split among voters who don’t. The gap in his support between evangelicals and everyone else is much wider than it was in 2016.

Education was already the most important dividing line in the 2016 race, with Trump running 12 percentage points better among voters without a degree than those with at least a four-year college education, in the cumulative analysis. That gap, too, is much wider this time: Trump has run at least 25 points better among voters without a degree than those with one in each of the three states that have been polled on Election Day. (There’s some preliminary evidence as well that those non-college voters are comprising a larger share of the total vote than they did in 2016.)

“Trump’s strength has kind of changed,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the political newsletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which is published by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “It’s made him a more durable Republican candidate. But it remains to be seen what that means for the general election.”

For all Trump’s strength, he has faced stubborn resistance from a significant minority of primary voters. Despite his sweep of the early nominating contests, his share of the vote hasn’t quite reached the heights of some other primary candidates in both parties. Counting Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan, Trump has won a little over three-fifths of the total combined vote so far. That slightly exceeds the share that Reagan won in 1980 and equals the percentage George W. Bush won in 2000, according to results compiled by Northeastern University political scientist William Mayer. But Trump still lags behind the last two candidates who most closely matched his advantages as a quasi-incumbent: vice-presidents George H.W. Bush in 1988 (who hit 68%) and Democrat Al Gore in 2000 (who reached 75%), according to Mayer’s tabulation.

ADVERTENTIE

Trump’s total vote share may approach those heights after Super Tuesday, when six deeply conservative Southern states are among the 15 contests. But the size and consistency of the hold-out coalition behind Haley has surprised many in the GOP. Even with all his advantages, Trump in Iowa only won a little over one-third of voters with at least a four-year college degree. Haley beat him soundly among that group in New Hampshire and South Carolina. No exit poll was conducted in Michigan, but Trump’s totals lagged his statewide percentage there too in white-collar places like Oakland, Washtenaw and Kent counties. These trends are likely to continue on Super Tuesday.

Haley’s consistent advantage among independents participating in the GOP primaries partly explains that trend, but even a substantial share of college-educated Republicans voted against Trump in the three states where voters were polled on Election Day. Moderates have flocked to Haley in large numbers in the early contests as well.

Yet the clear message of the primaries is that those traditional center-right, often suburban, Republicans now constitute the subordinate minority in a party dominated by Trump’s more populist and volatile coalition. This power shift has changed both the party’s agenda and its priorities.

The most significant shift is evident on foreign policy. When internationalist Dwight Eisenhower beat isolationist Sen. Robert Taft for the 1952 GOP presidential nomination, it marked a lasting turning point in the GOP’s internal balance of power. In every Republican presidency over the next six decades, the internationalist forces that supported a robust American role in the world set the course. Trump rejected that consensus when he was elected in 2016, but even during his tenure, Republican internationalists in Congress and his own administration resisted many of his efforts to downplay or abandon traditional alliances.

Now that resistance is crumbling, both in the party’s elite and grassroots. A majority of House Republicans last fall voted against providing further aid to Ukraine; so did a majority of Senate Republicans this year. The Chicago Council on Global Affairs found last year that, for the first time in a half century of polling on American attitudes about foreign policy, a majority of Republicans now say the US would be better off to mostly stay out of global affairs; that view was strongest among the Republicans most sympathetic to Trump.

More than any other prominent Republican, Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, who was first elected the year Reagan won his 49-state landslide reelection in 1984, has defended the Reaganite vision of America as the stalwart leader of the free world – the “shining city on a hill.” McConnell’s announcement last week that he would step aside as Republican leader in November marked an implicit acknowledgement that in Trump’s GOP, that Reaganite torch is flickering.

Like McConnell’s announcement, the choices by GOP elected officials in the primary contest signal their acknowledgement of the party’s direction. The share of GOP elected officials who have endorsed Haley isn’t anywhere near as large as her share of the total vote. (Her list of prominent endorsers doesn’t extend much beyond New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu and two moderate senators who backed her in the past few days, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.) Meanwhile, Republicans are scrambling over each other to bend their knee to Trump.

The long line of GOP elected officials endorsing Trump reflects many factors. He’s demolished the standing of his critics – from former Rep. Liz Cheney to DeSantis – among Republican voters, and most in the GOP have grown deeply reluctant to challenge him. Trump’s early primary victories, and huge lead in the national primary polls, convinced other Republican officials that opposing him was a suicide mission.

But a deeper factor also explains the imbalance in support among GOP elected officials. Trump has changed the electoral incentives for virtually everyone in the GOP. In the Trump era, hardly anyone in the party running in a competitive state can now rely on as much support from the college-educated voters who once anchored their coalition. That means virtually all Republicans need big turnout and margins among the same blue-collar, non-urban and culturally conservative voters most passionate about Trump. That gives other Republicans a powerful electoral incentive to move in Trump’s direction, in tone and substance. “There is no doubt the composition of our base is changing,” said Wilson.

The reluctance of other elected GOP officials to cross Trump in the primaries suggests he would face even less internal resistance in a second term than he did in his first. At times in that first term, GOP congressional leaders resisted him, particularly on foreign policy. That seems much less likely now, with staunch Trump loyalist Mike Johnson installed as House speaker and McConnell stepping aside as Senate GOP leader.  “No one could make the argument that McConnell or Kevin McCarthy gave Trump any significant pushback,” said Jennifer Horn, a former Republican Party chair in New Hampshire who has become a staunch Trump critic. “And they weren’t enough. Neither one of them could be loyal enough for him.”

As Trump nears a possible knock-out blow on Tuesday, the most important unanswered question is what Haley and her voters do in November. The primaries have shown her coalition is not nearly big enough to deny Trump the nomination. But it is more than big enough to deny him a general election victory. Through Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, a consistent four-fifths of Haley voters have said they don’t think Trump would be fit to serve as president if he’s convicted of a crime, according to the entrance and exit polls. In the AP/NORC VoteCast polls, two-thirds of Haley voters in Iowa, three-fourths in New Hampshire and about three-fifths in South Carolina said they would not vote for Trump in a general election.

In practice, it’s unlikely that so many Haley voters would actually reject Trump. In the days before the South Carolina primary, almost everyone I spoke with at Haley events disparaged Trump but said they would still vote for him over Biden, whom they viewed as both a failure and too old for the job. Distaste for Biden’s record and capacity may severely limit Democrats’ ability to convert Republican voters skeptical of Trump into crossover voters for Biden, predicted William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, who has sparred with the GOP as an adviser to prominent Democrats since the 1980s. “Yes, there is a division” among Republicans, Galston said. “But is it going to manifest itself where it counts, in votes cast [for Biden]? I don’t see a lot of evidence for that so far.”

Yet Republicans skeptical of Trump have noted that Trump might not be able to survive if even a meaningful fraction of Haley’s voters ultimately reject him. With Biden facing plenty of cracks in his own coalition, the independent, center-right, college-educated Republican-leaning voters who flocked to Haley present probably Democrats’ best opportunity to find new voters.

“I expect most of those [Haley] voters to ‘come home’ by November, but the big caveat is that if Donald Trump keeps picking at the scab rather than letting the party heal, he could absolutely hurt himself,” said GOP pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson, a CNN political commentator. “You need your party unified behind you to win a general in an era of deep polarization. You can’t afford to lose 10%+ to the other side.”

One final point is clear as Trump nears his third consecutive GOP nomination: He isn’t relinquishing his grip on the party any time soon. Galston noted that since World War II, the GOP has undergone two previous fundamental shifts – when Eisenhower installed internationalism and greater acceptance of the New Deal as the party consensus in 1952, and when Reagan cemented a more aggressive economic, national security and social conservatism in 1980. “Trump is the third great transformer of the Republican Party since the end of the Second World War,” Galston said. “And like the previous two, the consequences will be with us for a long time.”

Trump is consolidating his hold on the party infrastructure with the likely installation of his loyalists (including his daughter-in-law) in the top positions at the Republican National Committee. Ambitious younger Republicans are mostly defining themselves in his image. After the latest Ukraine vote, first-term Missouri GOP Sen. Eric Schmitt noted on social media that almost all of the 17 Republican senators elected since 2018 opposed the aid.

Given the level of dominance Trump has displayed in this year’s primaries among both voters and elected officials, there’s no reason to assume that even if he loses a general election he wouldn’t try for the GOP nomination again in 2028, when he’d be about the same age Biden is now. But whether or not Trump regains the White House this year, and whatever he does next if he doesn’t, it seems certain that his shadow will envelop the GOP for years.

“I think he will continue to be a significant influence over the party, its elected officials, its platform, its position on all of these important issues, for as long as he’s alive frankly,” said Horn.

“I said back in 2016 that if the party embraced him and took him on, it would be 25 years before they were able to truly cleanse themselves of him. Now I don’t know if I gave it enough time,” she added.

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i doubt they are gonne  replace sleepy joe  there is no contester from the democrats

i really hope these leftist liberal hippies lose democrats

 

 

 

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Dems freak out over Biden’s debate performance: ‘Biden is toast’

One prominent operative texted, “Time for an open convention.”

Biden stumbles, rambles at first presidential debate beside Trump

President Joe Biden's performance was widely panned online and will likely reinforce the impression that he’s lost a step.

By LISA KASHINSKY, ADAM CANCRYN and EUGENE DANIELS

06/27/2024 10:15 PM EDT

Updated: 06/28/2024 12:17 AM EDT

All Joe Biden needed to do was deliver a repeat performance of his State of the Union address.

Instead, he stammered. He stumbled. And, with fewer than five months to November, he played straight into Democrats’ worst fears — that he’s fumbling away this election to Donald Trump.

The alarm bells for Democrats started ringing the second Biden started speaking in a haltingly hoarse voice. Minutes into the debate, he struggled to mount an effective defense of the economy on his watch and flubbed the description of key health initiatives he’s made central to his reelection bid, saying “we finally beat Medicare” and incorrectly stating how much his administration lowered the price of insulin. He talked himself into a corner on Afghanistan, bringing up his administration’s botched withdrawal unprompted. He repeatedly mixed up “billion” and “million,” and found himself stuck for long stretches of the 90-minute debate playing defense.

And when he wasn’t speaking, he stood frozen behind his podium, mouth agape, his eyes wide and unblinking for long stretches of time.

'There's still time': Van Jones says Biden should be replaced

 

“Biden is toast — calling it now,” said Jay Surdukowski, an attorney and Democratic activist from New Hampshire who co-chaired former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley’s 2016 presidential campaign in the state.

In text messages with POLITICO, Democrats expressed confusion and concern as they watched the first minutes of the event. One former Biden White House and campaign aide called it “terrible,” adding that they have had to ask themselves over and over: “What did he just say? This is crazy.”

“Not good,” Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) wrote.

POLITICO spoke to about a dozen Democrats, some of whom were granted anonymity to discuss Biden’s performance.

Biden’s team was quick to defend the president’s performance. First they said he had a cold (and that he was negative for Covid-19). Then they insisted Trump was hurting himself by insulting Biden’s presidential record.

Biden did grow stronger throughout the night, at one point seizing on Trump’s reported dismissal of fallen soldiers as “suckers and losers” to skewer the former president as the real “sucker” and “loser.” At others, he hammered Trump’s criminal conviction in New York.

“The only person on this stage who’s a convicted felon is the man I’m looking at right now,” Biden said.

But first impressions matter — particularly to voters just tuning into the election and who were more likely to watch the first debate than the second that’s scheduled for September. And instead of setting the tone of the next phase of the presidential campaign, Biden’s shaky performance reignited fears among Democrats that the octogenarian whose mental acuity and physical fitness have stood as voters’ chief concerns about returning him to the White House might not even be able to carry the party through to November.

“Time for an open convention,” one prominent operative texted.

Biden’s team had tried to engineer the debate in his favor — pushing for it to be early and without an audience. And the president agreed to hold the event in part to calm Democratic nerves over whether he could win in November.

Afterward they didn’t try to cover up his poor performance, but instead tried to emphasize that Trump remained a threat to American interests at home and abroad.

“It was a slow start, that’s obvious to everyone. I’m not going to debate that point,” Vice President Kamala Harris told CNN’s Anderson Cooper an hour after the debate wrapped. “I’m talking about the choice in November. I’m talking about one of the most important elections in our collective lifetime. And do we want to look at what November will bring and go on a course for America that is about a destruction of democracy?”

Biden flubs early lines at first presidential debate

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While some Democrats were quick to brush aside Biden’s blunders — Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) said Biden “isn’t a TV showman, he’s a workhorse” — the trajectory of the race appears dramatically changed.

“My job right now is to be really honest. Joe Biden had one thing he had to do tonight. And he didn’t do it,” former Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) told MSNBC. “He had one thing he had to accomplish. And that was reassure America that he was up to the job at his age. And he failed at that tonight.”

Already, some Democrats were openly saying that Biden should end his campaign. One major Democratic donor and Biden supporter said simply: “Biden needs to drop out. No question about it.”

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Biden struggled at times to articulate strong arguments on some of his campaign’s biggest selling points, bungling his health care record and stumbling through a response on his support for abortion rights.

“I support Roe v. Wade. You have three trimesters. First time is between a woman and a doctor. Second time is between a doctor and an extreme situation. Third time is between the doctor — I mean, between the woman and the state,” he said.

Trump tripped, too. He called former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s daughter, a documentary filmmaker, a “fil-i-maker.” He accused Democrats of wanting to “take the life” of a child “after birth.” He inflated the country’s economic strength under his presidency.

He reiterated his defense of the Jan. 6 insurrectionists, launching into a lengthy diatribe against the convictions of hundreds of Trump supporters who stormed the Capitol in an effort to overturn the 2020 election. And asked repeatedly if he would accept the results of the election no matter the winner, Trump refused to give a straight answer — eventually specifying that he’d only do so “if the election is fair and free.”

But Trump largely did what Republicans had begged him to do: show a modicum of restraint while also laying bare Biden’s weaknesses. The former president, who delights in calling Biden “sleepy” and “crooked” at every turn, waited a full 20 minutes to draw attention to the Democrat’s initially shaky performance.

“I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence,” Trump said, after Biden stuttered through an answer to a question about immigration. “I don’t think he knows what he said, either.”

And in a relatively staid debate, it was Biden who fell short of even the lowest of expectations.

“Biden seems to have needed a few minutes to warm up,” said one veteran Democratic operative. “Poor guy needs a tea. Maybe a whiskey.” Another suggested that Biden get a throat lozenge.

Both Biden and Trump, who is just three years younger than the incumbent, faced questions toward the end of the debate about their fitness for another four years of the presidency.

Biden, with a cough, urged voters to judge his competence based on his record, attacking Trump as “three years younger and a lot less competent.”

“Look at the record. Look at what I’ve done,” he said, reprising a line he’s often deployed on the campaign trail.

Trump then offered his own meandering case for his aptitude, claiming to have “aced” a pair of cognitive tests and pointing to golf tournament championships he’s won at his own golf course as evidence of his physical stamina.

The exchange quickly devolved into a game of one-upmanship — “I’m happy to play golf if you carry your own bag,” Biden shot back at one point. But by that point, many viewers’ opinions were likely long cemented.

Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire GOP chair and “Never Trumper” who is considering voting for Biden, had warned that Democrats would need to reconsider their ticket if the president delivered a poor performance on Thursday.

After the debate, Cullen said: “Anyone who has watched a parent grow old, frail, and foggy recognizes what they are seeing and knows it only gets worse, at an accelerating rate, from here.”

Nicholas Wu and Josh Seigel contributed to this report.

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It is official guys trump is our next leader   what a great leader he will be , better then those lefty democrats.

 

 

 

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galbeedi   

Xaaji,

The democrats are corrupt, by they are not stupid. 

Italian say" Never fear Rome, the serpent lies coiled in Napoli".

In terms of conspiracy and treachery the democrats are experts while Trump is blowhard who doesn't understand the great game. Debates usually take place after convention when the nominee and his deputy are crowned. In order to get rid of Biden , they proceeded to hold the debate early in order to expose the weaknesses of Biden and hold the convention and nominate a new candidate.

Trump was duped and has accepted the debate and killed Biden last night. Now, a new candidate , most likely Gaven Newsome of California who is 30 years younger than TRump will step in the cage and defeat Trump. He should have waited the debate until August, but felt on the democratic trap.

Even the way CCN conducted the debate was very strange. The headlines from mainstream media is " Biden should quit". Even the New York time wrote an editorial demanding his resignation.TRump is cooked.

 

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10 hours ago, galbeedi said:

Xaaji,

The democrats are corrupt, by they are not stupid. 

Italian say" Never fear Rome, the serpent lies coiled in Napoli".

In terms of conspiracy and treachery the democrats are experts while Trump is blowhard who doesn't understand the great game. Debates usually take place after convention when the nominee and his deputy are crowned. In order to get rid of Biden , they proceeded to hold the debate early in order to expose the weaknesses of Biden and hold the convention and nominate a new candidate.

Trump was duped and has accepted the debate and killed Biden last night. Now, a new candidate , most likely Gaven Newsome of California who is 30 years younger than TRump will step in the cage and defeat Trump. He should have waited the debate until August, but felt on the democratic trap.

Even the way CCN conducted the debate was very strange. The headlines from mainstream media is " Biden should quit". Even the New York time wrote an editorial demanding his resignation.TRump is cooked.

 


 

interesting let’s wait and see the new candidate 

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What is with secessionists always being fooled by obvious con people? Does it have to do with endless sessions of marqaamid in tiny marfishes. It seems they have no critical thinking and skills.

Or perhaps in their twisted rationale they think since this Orangecon is an enemy of xildhibaanad Ilhaan, then he might 'help' and sympathetic to their delusions. Ar yaa u sheego inuu Soomaalida u simanyihiin. His new regime will try to deport tens of thiusands of ummadda Soomaaliyeed and will stop more tens of thousands not to come to U.S. legally.

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I have always preferred republicans over the silly leftist democrats  as for mr trump even from an American perspective he is better for Americans then Joe Biden . Why on earth would any one support Joe Biden I mean it is sleepy Joe . This has nothing to do with ilhaan she is meaningless in all of this 

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