Re-thinking Ethiopias political move on Somalis- Ethiopia is in deep internal crisis and collapse

[Khadafi]

It is easy to make analyzes based on emotions. What made Ethiopia's Abey Ahmed make this erratic political move? We Somalis have an inferiority complex and think we are seeing the Ethiopia of that time. The truth is that Ethiopia underwent a failed coup a month ago. Abey Ahmed's has completely lost his grip. This political move by him is a move by him out of weakness to appease the Amhara people.

Many forget that Abey Ahmed does not even control the Amhara region. No control over Gondar, Tigray and even in the south the Jimma of the Oromo people. Chaos reigns in Ethiopia. To be honest, I think that we Somalis have simply suffered from traces of the deep internal ethnic crisis in Ethiopia which is currently undergoing a defacto Yugoslavia balkanization. Abey knows that "recognizing other countries" outside Africa's colonial borders is a form of irrendtism and illegal.

If you read the agreement, you see the word choice recognition in "due course" What is sad is that we Somalis have now been directly affected by Ethiopia's collapse. Will he succeed? He will not succeed. The ethnic antagonisms continue. Even if Abey Ahmed sings and dances to extremist ethno-nationalist fetish about "Borders of the Kingdom of Aksum from Assab to Saylac" i.e. what Meneleik and Xayle Sailasse used to say, it won't help him. It is important that Somalis realize this.

 

What is tragic about this is a somali president went down to the soomali ballade 10 years ago and danced the dhaanto. The first president in the history of Somalia who went voluntarily to a disputed Somali area which in our constitution was "disputed" His laughter and dance and visit were applauded by many but behind the scenes what many thought, this is not a form of legitimization of this. The same Somali president now condemns Abey Ahmed, Neftgna Ahmed, Amxaaro Cabey for his erratic political moves. We all know the demographics of Somaliland

. An area that has been relatively stable since 1991. One hundred thousand Oromo is enough for the whole country to become a subsidized bizarre country that will lack the power to choose its destiny. For the low conscious who scream in their intoxication under the influence of qayillaada "ICTIRAAF" forget about "countries" like Transistria, Abkhazia, countries recognized by Russia and only Russia. These areas have one thing in common. They have Russian military bases and a large influx of Russians. Ictiraafka xabashida waa deedi. Ilaahy Soomal ha ilaaharo.

AUN all Somali martyrs. Cigal must now be rolling in his grave along with all those who fought for liberation from the British and Italians. Who knew that Somalis themselves would actually accept an Ethiopian military base targeting the sea.? What do you think? YAAB!

[Che -Guevara]

It is interesting to see Amharas defending Somali sovereignty on X and other social media platforms. Amharas want him out. They felt betrayed as they believed Abiy owed them for defending him against the TPLF.  The current OLA wants him out as they are not interested in unified Ethiopia. They want independent Oromo with Addis Ababa as their capital.

The Tigray are not in a position to help them. Amharas control Western Tigray (land claimed by Amhara) and Eritrea is still in many parts of Tigray. 

In any case, Somalis will always face the same problem regardless of who occupies Melenik Palace. A strong Somalia that is at peace with itself is the only answer even if Ethiopia balkanized. In today's world, might is right.

[Arafaat]

 

12 hours ago, Khadafi said:

For the low conscious who scream in their intoxication under the influence of qayillaada "ICTIRAAF" forget about "countries" like Transistria, Abkhazia, countries recognized by Russia and only Russia. These areas have one thing in common. They have Russian military bases and a large influx of Russians. Ictiraafka xabashida waa deedi. Ilaahy Soomal ha ilaaharo.

The ‘ictiraaf’ thing has really confused some, Ethiopia already enters agreements with Somaliland, has a diplomatic mission that reports directly to Addis, has direct flights to Hargeisa. What more ictiraaf than that will Ethiopia bring you, changing the sign board of its Consular Mission to Embassy is that worth selling your land for it.

 

 

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

7 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

It is interesting to see Amharas defending Somali sovereignty on X and other social media platforms. Amharas want him out. They felt betrayed as they believed Abiy owed them for defending him against the TPLF.  The current OLA wants him out as they are not interested in unified Ethiopia. They want independent Oromo with Addis Ababa as their capital.

The Tigray are not in a position to help them. Amharas control Western Tigray (land claimed by Amhara) and Eritrea is still in many parts of Tigray. 

In any case, Somalis will always face the same problem regardless of who occupies Melenik Palace. A strong Somalia that is at peace with itself is the only answer even if Ethiopia balkanized. In today's world, might is right.

Hadduu Xasan Socdaal caqli leeyahay, siyaasad yaqaan dadkaan Abiy Axmed ku kacsan ayuu Xamar ugu wici lahaa and fund them, hubna siiyo.

[Che -Guevara]

1 hour ago, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:

Hadduu Xasan Socdaal caqli leeyahay, siyaasad yaqaan dadkaan Abiy Axmed ku kacsan ayuu Xamar ugu wici lahaa and fund them, hubna siiyo.

As long as Xasan is appeasing the secessionists and by extension IOG and Emirates, he will not take advantage of the situation. He can't even bring himself to settle SSC issue and get in touch reer Awadal elites. What matters the most is the support of the people in the North and South. A foreign power and adversaries won't trust a man who can't unite his people.

The majority of the Northerners outside Heego and some diaspora know this is a land grab and eventual annexation.

[Arafaat]

15 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

As long as Xasan is appeasing the secessionists and by extension IOG and Emirates, he will not take advantage of the situation. He can't even bring himself to settle SSC issue and get in touch reer Awadal elites. What matters the most is the support of the people in the North and South. A foreign power and adversaries won't trust a man who can't unite his people.

The majority of the Northerners outside Heego and some diaspora know this is a land grab and eventual annexation.

I don’t think IOG on this deal either. But he is fearing an antagonised Ethiopia and has been sidelined earlier by Abiy and Farmaajo. 

[Khadafi]

Could not agree more with you all.  Ismaacil Cumar gheele did what he could when received intelligence about what the xabashida were planning and called these leaders.  Hassan socdaal should have been more firm and more bold in regards to the issue.  We have a saying, if someone unlawfully obtains your house and you stay silent about it why should you be suprised if the bandit comes after your other houses.   With all due respect,  as MMA  indicated,  Hassan socdaal was the first somali president to visit "soomaligalbeed" and dance with  the bloodthirsty tigree stooge Iley. This was the first indication for the ethiopians set their eyes upon the somali coast. Symbolism is important.

Arafaat,  well said bro. The word "ictiraaf" dadka ayuu sixray, yaab, The Mou isnt even legally binding and said in clouded words "recognition" in its  "due course". Giving up your land for a bizarre worded Mou and then flooding the media with words "Ictiraaf" in order appease the gullable masses.  Allow soomali alle ha hu gargaaro. War dadkaa maxaaa ku dhacay? Yaakhay dadka manakoobiyo maa le geeya?  Whats more sad is that how Muuse used this bizarre wording to make the whole thing as  the "wicked soomalis in the south  against the somalis from hargeysaa". Does not he even see that his own backyard gave up that game with SSC and the saylac folks`and even some moderate elements within the SNM?. 

Xamaasad and emotionally driven politic based upon nacayb only leads "fitna" The books of history will judge the guy. Poor saylac folks for being a second abkhazia or south ossestia soon.

The dust will settle down, the oromo preacher will find his own impending collapse. Balaayo ku aragtee dheh, mar  in uu la dagaalaamo tigreerga, marna oromodiisa, marna amxaarada. His divertion tactics and defauting the nation  and then starting issues with somalis will fail.  I will say it again, The west is tired and no longer see mini-cat to keep peace. It has its own issue. They too see a fragile yoguslavian nation on the brinks of collapse. 

Mark my words in this forum. Its 2024.  Lets forget about "ethiopia" as we did in the 70-ties.  Its a house built upon cards. Mengistu, the woleyta communist  semi- destroyed the first pillar by destroying the whole concept  of what it means to be ethiopian by erasing that amhara church grip. Mengistu who hailed from slave origins knew the tinder box and as true communist never adressed the rights of ethnicities.  The second blow to the pillar was the eritreans who defeated the amhara led army.  The third pillar was indeed the Somali nation that gave  identity the oromos. 4th and final pillar that nailed the coffin was the tigrayans who out of ethnic chauvinism preferred to use ethnic federalism despite Meles fully knowing that Yoguslavia awaited nation.

 

All pillars are down now,  By 2026 the second phase will happen. Hopefully dadkeena way fahmaayaan in guri xaaran iyo xoog Meneliq ku dhisay  barako laga heleynin.

YAAB!

[Che -Guevara]

Khadafi,

There's another thing about the West. Despite their support for Ethiopia, they don't want a powerful Ethiopia with vast resources and the population to match it. They want someone who can control and use from time to time.