Failure of the insurgency a report...

[General Duke]

The insurgency: a report

 

The groups fighting:

 

A combination of desperate groups, the most are made up of the defated and exiled Clan Courts militias who were the same militioas who held Mogadishu , lower Shabbele and parts of the Juba regions hostage for a decade or more. This group was led by Yusuf IndaCade and the late Adan Hanshi Cayrow. Bolstering their ranks and holding the intelligence are the foreign fighters who for the past 10 years made Somalia and Mogadishu their safe haven. This group is independent from the clan militias and their interst is to hide in the anarchy and build their networks interest in the country. They hide in religious garb and are the brains behind the new types of attacks that were never known throught the long years of Somali’s deadly civil war. Car bombings, suicide attacks and martyrdom operations. This group uses Abu Mansuur Robow as their point man and his recent interviews gives away the game.

 

Thus a clan militia who are fighting for pride and what they see as an attack on their interests are allied with a desperate foreign group who need a safe haven and who are wanted criminals in their home nations. The disheartening issue is that the clan militia have brought havoc on behalf of the second group on the very people they claimed to have been defending. The clan has lost property, man power and influence while fighting has escalated. Most see the damage done but are too cowardly and blind sided to admit that the actions of these militias are doing are destroying the people.

 

This reminds the author of the total denial these groups lived in when Aydeed & Ali Mahdi were at war, it took years after the event for people to realize that what went on was a catastrophic failure of leadership and human suffering. Now the actions of the inheritors of Aydeed and Mahdi will only be condemned long after the event when the deaths are mere numbers and statistics.

 

The events thus far: The constant attacks and daily raids on government targets and the battles have led to huge amounts of suffering, displacement and the deaths of many combatants and many times tht number of civilians. However the aims of the “insurgency” has not been met in any way. The international troops are still there. The TFG is still holding its ground in Mogadishu, and has not lost a single police station or barracks. The government has not been toppled and the armed struggle has brought about few substantial gains for this group.

They have lost some of their greatest and most important commanders from Cayrow to Aspiro. Their unity has been shattered their supreme leader Xasan dahir is in exile and stuck in Asmara a pawn in Aferwarki’s hand. Their more popular leader Sharif Ahmed has disavowed their recent mad actions.

 

The Somali national government has as usual been plagued by political failures within it, which has resulted in it not taking coherent action. However the military option for this group seems very weak and hence the constant terror attacks and the much hyped capture of areas which were never in contest. They have managed to gain success by routing few weak warlords like Hiiraale, but have not been able to match the armed forces in any open battle. Every exchange they have had with the TFG, Ethiopian and now Ugandan forces they have lost easily and convincingly.

 

Thus their strategy is one inherited by the Aydeed era, to break the will of their opponent by sheer terror to frighten it to submission and thus to claim victory. This is not working today.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

[Fabregas]

You call that a "report"? A report is supposed to be balanced and objective. What is up there is pure hearsay and propoganda.

[N.O.R.F]

^^Come on now, Duke was proud of that

[dhulQarnayn]

Duke, you're wasting your time dealing with our resident morons by posting such immaculately reasoned and well thought out reports.

 

You've been wiping the SOL floor with these naysayers ever since I joined this forum. Marka, keep preaching to them my brother!

 

dhulQarnayn :cool:

Republic Of California

[General Duke]

Adeer two horns. Where is their analysis, what have they contributed to the debate?

 

You have a dude who only supports Abdiqasin & Sharif Xasan and nothing else and no stance.

 

You have a religious secessionist who loves the unity of the Ummah but wants to seperate Somalia because of the British colonial era.

 

The other dude is well meaning but harmless.

 

Anyhow lads thanks for the input on the topic.

[Fabregas]

Originally posted by Norf 1:

^^Come on now, Duke was proud of that

I didn't mean to spol his painting, i mean report.

[General Duke]

Again thanks for the input on the topic.

[General Duke]

Failure of the insurgency: part 2

 

The “insurgency” has so far failed to deliver a major blow to the TFG let alone a knock out, with all its weaknesses the government has been able to hold the capital. This includes all the police stations, the airport and the port and other strategic areas.

The government did not have the intelligence network or the familiarity with the capital which was the base of the defeated and exiled militias for the past 17 years. The insurgents have used their familiarity and the support of the criminal merchant clan centered on the Bakara Market and the clan media to project themselves on the world stage as effective fighters of the kind they have no doubt watched on Al Jazeera and other world media.

They have used every trick, propaganda and outright lies, targeting civilians, suicide bombings and other crude means to scar the populations psyche. The aim is simple to keep the population in terror on the run and to blame it all on the Christian Ethiopians, the Aids bringing Ugandans and the Puntland clan that has come back to get revenge.

 

Their main mouth Abu Mansur has declared that he is “defending the Bakara” and fighting the “Puntlanders” , you have their other leaders Ahmed Diriye who confuses his enemies one minute its Ethiopia the other minute its Puntland and so on. Thus even the most primitive of minds can fathom that this group are no more religious than Morgan and others before them and Morgan has a great beard and has taken up wearing the head scarf of Yasser Arafat.

 

The insurgency is failing not in its effectiveness in killing civilians, the murders of NGO workers and the late MP Usman Maye unarmed and coming from prayers have proven that Somali blood is cheap to these folks. However it is failing because it has not frightened the opponent nor has it scared away its support base. It has not stoped the bleeding of their political, financial and other institutions. IndaCade, Xasan Dahir, Turki and others are shadows of what they once were, this is the important paradigm shift that has taken place. The fact that these clan militia can still kill is not the issue, its that they can not impose their wills on the majority of Somali’s anymore.

[Gabbal]

Balloy ballo.

[General Duke]

Horn, Hiiraales defeat is another important factor in the shift towards normality. Gone is Hiiraale, Taano, Goobanle, Seeraar, cirfo, IndaCade. All individuals who took over from the locals of the Shabbele and the Jubas.

 

True peace will come when the locals take control of the regions, just like they do in Somaliland, Puntland. Then it will be all quite.

 

And with the demise of these individuals and the failure of their clan Jihad we are close to it.

[Gabbal]

Originally posted by General Duke:

Horn, Hiiraales defeat is another important factor in the shift towards normality. Gone is Hiiraale, Taano, Goobanle, Seeraar, cirfo, IndaCade. All individuals who took over from the locals of the Shabbele and the Jubas.

 

True peace will come when the locals take control of the regions, just like they do in Somaliland, Puntland. Then it will be all quite.

 

And with the demise of these individuals and the failure of their clan Jihad we are close to it.

I thought the "locals" defeated Hiiraale and took over the region. What is this "we are close to it".

[General Duke]

^^^Adeer Kismayu has been taken by its locals. "we" signifies the whole Somali's and not a sub group.

 

Anyhow its closer than ever.