Lifting the Arms Embargo on Somalia Carries Long-term Global Security Risks

[Deeq A.]

Mogadishu (Commentary) – Lifting arms embargo on a country divided into rival federal member states and with parallel forces is hardly a peace-making effort. Without canvassing the views of the federal member states Britain drafted a resolution to lift the arms embargo on Somalia. If the UN Security Council decides to lift the embargo on Somalia it will turn out to be a top-down decision expressly designed to deepen political rifts and mistrust within Somali political elites to perpetuate the country’s dependency on peacekeeping forces.

The UN Security Council will today vote on a UK-drafted resolution to lift the arms embargo on Somalia

It will not be a decision that will be celebrated throughout Somalia.  In the South Central, an area near Mogadishu two subclans used weapons supplied by the Somali National Army to fight Al-shabaab under the Macawisley scheme. In Mogadishu the perception that certain subclans receive preferential armament treatment from the government is strong due to the absence of mechanisms aimed to prevent government weapons falling into the hands of rival subclans.

Lifting the arms embargo on Somalia will undermine the spirit of reconciliation that, although to some extent flawed and discriminatory, has provided a basis for successive governments in Somalia since the year 2000. Somalia does not have parliamentarians elected through one person, one vote elections. Until Somalia puts in place a government based on the rule of law, consequential decisions such as lifting the arms embargo should not be rushed. The Federal Government of Somalia will forfeit the trust and legitimacy its institutions enjoy despite being unable to return Mogadishu to its pre-1991 status as a melting-pot.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has yet to   explain to Somali citizens and his national partners the need to lift embargo while a large segment of Somalis remains politically deprived under the 4.5, their deprivation is based on their status as having no armed clan militias or never seeking to conquer a territory or occupy private or public properties illegally.

Britain, the penholder, could be accused of prioritising its interests over the national interest of Somalia when it uses its diplomatic heft to push for the lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia. In 2017 at the London Somalia conference António Guterres, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, cited global risks from Somalia as the rationale for keeping ATMIS (then AMISOM) in Somalia. Failure of Somali politicians has resulted in state collapse and the subsequent security threat posed to maritime routes along Somali seas by pirates and transnational, proscribed groups. Somalia’s national interest is best served if the arms embargo does not get lifted.

By Adan M. Dawad

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