The sea is ours, and the ship is ours: Ethiopian (Oromo) nationalism on steriods

[Arafaat]

1 hour ago, Che -Guevara said:

Abiy meeting with Afars, and one of his arguments is Afars have the right use to Asseb since Asseb is an Afar-majority city. He made similar arguments when it comes to reer Somaligalbeed. 

 This is quite strategic, also getting Afar on board  gives Ethiopia quite some strategic leverages in the broader region, incl Djibouti.  

[galbeedi]

Che,

Two things first before I try to educate some of our friends here. First this chant of the Ethiopian army saying the " The Sea is ours" isn't a new, second, it wasn't intended for Zaylac despite playing with emotions of the Somali public.

If you are old enough, you could be familiar the Derg chant of the Amharic word, " Min Ale Dergu Min Ale? Eritrean La Arab Al satin Ale". Which roughly translators ," what did the Derg said, they said we will not give Eritrea to the Arabs".

In this case the chant is and always was about Assab port which ethiopia controlled and owned for more than 70 years. It was Meles Zenawi who gave away the port without nothing to exchange in 1993 Eritrean referendum. Just five years after that decision in 1998, he tried to depose Asias Afework and take it back from Eritrea. With strong and emerging nationalist Eritrea led by former rebels who fought both Haile Salasie and Mengistu that was unacceptable and the war ended with few hamlets changing hands and hundreds of thousands of casualty. Since then from 2000 on Eritrea faced with crippling sanctions and total isolation. Afework, despite the economic hardships he maintained a unified Eritrea and tough grip on power. Thousands of the youth left the country for better economic conditions and for some freedom. Despite all this hardship, Eritrea remains one of the few countries without foreign debt and control.

Yet, cracks are appearing in the country as of lately. Some of you might have seen the riots taking place in foreign capitals between rival groups of pro Afework and the opposition. In our town in Alberta  Canada,  police swat teams intervened when rival groups clashed about who should be holding the national day of Eritrea. Furthermore, the Afars are the predominant population of the city today. Since the Ethiopian trade stopped from 1998, Assab is a ghost town with a population of 20,000 people and with almost zero tourism. 

Furthermore, in the current Ethiopian conflict, Afework is allied with the Amhara against Abiy.  while he helped Abiy defeat the TPLF, If any minor disturbances take place in Eritrea, Assab will be in the hands of Ethiopia. Within Ethiopia today, the talk is Assab not Zaylac. It takes less than 50 miles to cross from Assab to major Ethiopia settlements. Since Aby Ahmed is always embarking new methods to advance his ideas, I agree that both the Tigray and Amhara will support him if moves to take Assab, yet  I don't believe Abiy will take the port through  war, but other means. 

I could tell you that Ethiopia with already Somali Galbeed within Ethiopia, there is no political, geographical or geopolitical reason to take a land within Somalia. Land swabs usually within indigenous populations who have disputes might take place as was proposed with the Israelis and Palestinians. Turkey is trying to connect with Azerbaijan through Armenia by proposing a mutually agreed train and highway infrastructure. Just taking over Zaylac isn't happening. I am glad the Zaylac talk has morphed into a fake nationalist propaganda by the failing Hargeisa entity. Our friend Carafaat is even proposing a war that combines Djibouti and Hargeisa which is nothing but an old alliance against Awdal people in the late eighties, but I can assure we won't be alone if that war comes and this fake despots in Djibouti and Hargeisa would lose. 

News flash boys. My opinion( which is the manifestations of Awdal State Movement) has more weight than most of you here, because it based on facts, figures and the future, and not about emotions and fake Soomaalinimo waged by those who burned the blue flag and prosecuted many Somalis including just by wearing blue. It was Ina Cali Waraabe who said, " A boy from Addis is more close to me than the one in Mogadishu". Furthermore, these Somalis never showed any hostility towards the TPLF for fragmenting Somalia for the last 27 years. 

I am saying that first thing is first. We will be taking over Awdal despite the barking dogs and will reach our destinations. Any thing else is a second thought. If we ride someone else's camel to reach our goal, we will do as many of you guys have done in the past. Also, unlike you guys, we don't consider the Ethiopia of Abiy Ahmed worse than the Derg of Mengistu or the 30 year rule of the TPLF. We believe the new Ethiopia to be different than the TPLF many Somalis served and used willingly including the secessionist entity in Hargeisa.

I will leave there the  Zaylac issue  for now.

Now let us address the so called Somali outfits masquerading as states before their eventual collapse just like the Hargeisa one which doesn't even realize by preparing another wae against SSC which will eliminate them for good. 

The so called Somali run states exist  in name only whether it is Djibouti, Somali galbeed or the Habro project in Hargeisa, or the Madoobe run outfit in Kismaayo or even the HAG (Federal government). Puntland might be different if they survive Deni and will explain later.

None of them is self sustaining and they will collapse sooner or later.

They couldn't function a month without the foreign aid. Djibouti run out of money in the year 2000/2002, and civil servants, teachers and others left for Belgium, Canada and France. It was saved by the so called war on terror and rental of bases to half a dozen countries. There is no work ethics among the ruling clan including the private sector or even those who came to the diaspora, I know many of them receive money from Djibouti while most Somalis send money back home. The moment America and others close their bases,  Djibouti will be out of business and might collapse within or from some minor intervention from outside. There are not even 10% of population who are middle class. A very small number , probably  1% upper class looters control everything, the rest are poor beggars or low wage earners. DEspite their  fake military parades, Djibouti doesn't even have a fighting force. Their youth were destroyed by Khat or idle sitting. Eritrea could overrun them in a day if war breaks out. That is the top food chain nation among the  so called recognized state run by Somalis and few Afars. Here in DDS, the Djibouti run clan has the deputy leadership here and in charge of the Siti zone, yet their leadership doesn't bring any developments except few towns west of Shiniile. They have zero business in Jigjiga, and few even  in Diredhabe. We need experts to study this , but clans who are in power in these parts had lost their work ethics and could only survive through looting to gain un earned material. Others with almost no levers of power within the government are fairings much better in terms trade and other means of earning livelihood. 

Jigjiga is no more a Somali city .

Folks,  take the above statement very seriously because it is coming from an astute observer, yours truly Mr. Galbeedi.

By observing those who are walking the streets of Jigjiga,, more than 50% of the people are either Oromo, Amhara or from southern communities. Every functioning business, shop, bar, restaurant, construction site, mechanical skills ( car mechanic, computer repair shop, smartphone repair, driver of heavy equipment...Etc) and federal government  offices, be the airline ticket offices, banks or airports are run by none Somalis. 

Amhara alone have three districts within Jigjiga with well established schools and businesses. The ruling clan might build a big hotel ( what else would they know) and big glass building with looted money but with little tangible profit and no long term sustainability, even those are run by none Somalis.. The small infrastructure you see  in the city were built by Abdi Illey with iron fist. The small clan that says Unaka Leh Jigjiga might own the plot of lands that surround the city, but Somalis from all walks of life reside here with some communities whose settlement are 20 km.

During the last election, Cagjar said elections of the city council will be monopolized by only this tiny clan and others including the Awdal community rejected that and fielded their own candidates. After the clashes, the federal election commission suspended the election. It is like saying Reer Galmudug or Unaka will only run in Mogadishu elections while denying Reer Daynile, Jareer, Reer Bay or others who live stones throw from the city. The gridlock has parallelized services . Furthermore, the Amhara, Oromo and others want to join the local government and they might get their wish soon. The inability for lower class Somalis to earn a wage and work had disappeared and was replaced by people from Southern communities. Wages in Jigjiga are higher than even in Addis Ababa which attracts many people from Wallo to Sidamo.

As Jigjiga loses its unique Somali character, the  OG leadership doesn't have an answer to either transform the city into a  multicultural booming place or encourage Somalis to settle the place and eliminate the clan thing. As we speak they are    deliberating how to abandon Jigjiga and move the capital to Godey. It will be difficult to create another capital at this stage. In 1991, OG has abandoned Diredhabe, a multicultural city with Somali majority, but those who were in position of leadership felt uncomfortable to the multilingual city. and run away to their village. Unlike Somalis, the Oromo had moved their capital from Adamo to Finfine (Adiis Ababa) relocating the government operation to the federal capital. When I asked a guy how could this be possible, he said, it is the capital of many things: African, Ethiopian and Oromo capital, and we insisted to be our capital too. Go figure.

From the Somali outsiders point of view the Oromo could be characterized as disorganized and unstable due to the clashes with their neighbors, but Oromo state is much better than the Somali state in every metric. Hadamo is a very clean city with well lit street lites, green parks, gardens and beautiful streets. You could see a well dressed police officers with motorbikes, cars and pickups and organized buildings. Their countryside is is green with farms and small towns all in orderly with no garbage in the streets or buildings. They are on the move. Hargeisa , the second biggest city calling it self a capital has no roads with garbage littered in the streets.

Even in Addis, the most disorderly and disorganized place with traffic jam is Bole Mikael. While we are savvy in business and traders, rules don't apply to us.

As I said before, we have been watching this for 30 years or more after you destroyed the Somali state and you created nothing. I can assure you that some of us are determined to build something better than for whay you wasted for 32 years.

A very strange phenomenon that I observer  is that the Geda....si people in DDS will tell you that they want this colonial border to disappear. Very strange indeed.

Carafaat, saaxiib soonka adkeyso hawluhu meel  adag ayey marayaane.

By the way,  some  D block boys will serve the colonial powers as long as they are " The Boy" and put in charge of other Somalis. The Habro are emotional and child like characters and the HAG are anarchists who will murder you for your Iphone.

In nations and in geopolitics it is a phrase called " Fait Accompli", 

Waar maxaa tal ah?

Will tell you soon how they will all collapse.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

galbeedi,

I am aware of all of that. And it does not really matter who the chants are directed at as it leads to further instability. Abiy is a liability to the region as clearly shown by the constant war he inflicted on his population since he came to power. Any war against Eritrea or Somalia will draw in other regional powers and it will be a war of attrition. Despite the shiny toys and parades, the Ethiopian forces are not in a position to fight a proper army. They barely control the Amhara region and only control Tigray region with TPLF's consent.

I share your sentiments about Somali leaders, clans and admins. I do agree Awdal should have its own state be within Somalia proper or as a decentralized region within Somaliland. I personally prefer the former, but the decision is ultimately reer Awdal, Hargeisa, and Mogadishu would have learned to live with it.

[maakhiri1]

Ethiopia capturing Eritrea's port is a pipe dream, and Abiy is delusional.

It is possible Eritrea to take Addis.

 

[Arafaat]

Galbeedi, everyone knows that Ethiopia’s current eyes are on Assab, and strategicly it makes sense. But if Eritrea becomes subjugated to Ethiopia, what do you think this could mean for the region, Djibouti and Somaliland and Ethiopia's further aspirations. Listen here to Abdiqadir Jirde talk about Ethiopia's historic aspiration for coastal areas, from 12.48min on. 

Personally I do hope for a more voluntrary and gradual process of political and economic integration of the Horn of Africa countries, but this far removed from the Empire aspirations and talk of annexation. 

 

 

[Arafaat]

Galbeedi,

I also share your sentiments on the futility of Somalia's so called Federal States and the dominating political tendencies in the different clans. However, aren't you making the same mistakes in your political calculations as the Habro politics have made that you have continuously pointed out.  For example, you are so focussed on moving Awdal away from Somaliland that you are not seeing other potentials risks and dangers in your foreseen pathways, as Somaliland has done by thinking their only adverseries were Somalia and not seeing all the risks and consequences of its trajectory.  Secondly, what makes you think Ethiopia will recongnise Awdal as a separate region equal to Jigjiga and maintain its population demographics as it is? And thirdly, you are so diamensionly thinking in clan, but at the same time not taking in to account that other clans and sub-clans in Awdal might not share your narrow clan viewed political aspirations, specially the sub-clan whose native regions runs along the coast from Zeila all the way to Lughaya? 

I think you should count your blessings and be grateful for all that you have, that every other Somali community could only dream of. Be grateful that you are from a region that has been largely spared from the wars, conflicts, be grateful that you from a community that lives in peace with its neighboring communities, be grateful that your families, community and clan  have not seen displacement nor were uprooted from their homes, be thankful for having political leaders that are wise and sensible and forth thinking, be grateful that your nieces and nephews have enjoyed uninterrupted education over the last decades and belong now to the most literate and educated Somalis. Say Alhamdullilah and count your blessings brother, for what you think isn't good might actually be good for you, and what you think is good that others have might be more of a curse then you are aware off.

[Arafaat]

I want to share a little anecdote with you about the first time I met someone from Awdal. The was back in 2004 when I met this girl, who only came to Europe few years earlier. And as all the Somali kids were sharing their piece of war and refugee stories, she couldn't relate to all those stories and said she didn't understand what others were talking about and she shared that she came from a town (Borama) never seen war, fighting nor had to flee, and had enjoyed education and came straight to Europe, without going through any of the refugee camps in Ethiopia and Kenya. I was young didn't know the different regions but her story stuck with me, as I knew pretty much that all the Somali kids had seen times of fear, suffering, conflict and displacements from their homes and was surprised to hear that a Somali kid coming from the country without those kind of experiences. 

Point of the story, don't compare Awdal's geographical fate and trajectory (past and future) with others and put it in the unique perspective that it deserves. 

[maakhiri1]

 

[maakhiri1]

Arafaat,

Please share with us how Awdalites will get/have a good deal in SL, rather forming their own state, under Federal Republic.

The basic human rights, are dignity, choosing your own elections, fate, being part of something, inclusivity.

While the Somalilanders were  dealing and solving their problems, how could they just dismiss and forget, and not even seek what Awdal wants, it is a good idea to find solution, but it has to be inclusive., is that showing any respect?

is it because of Gacanlibaah? do they get more benefits and their fairer share, representations, aid, development by following  Gacanlibah?

or they just keep quiet and listen what Habro dictate to them?  do you know Awdal is more strategic than SSC, they have access to the sea, and would flourish by having their state. why does Habro want other people lands?

Do you think the FAKE vice president, who has zero powers, just waiting for the president to die, is enough for them?

The SL if handled very fair, would suit them, but they almost get nothing, 17 thousand public servants, they get less than 1000? are you guys chosen one? taking people as fools? and million other problems. Not equals, but third-class citizen!

I want to know why you think Awdal , while being treated this way, would be better off with SL?

[Arafaat]

Somalilands political discourse is in nobody’s interest, and is far away removed from inclusivity, fairness nor provides a sensible future pathways for the youth in Borama, Baki or Burco, as elites are pre-occupied with holding on to power and self enrichment. And there seems to be a consensus that the current discourse isn’t sustainable.

The question arising and that needs to be asked and discussed is, what is then the alternative solution or direction for the people in Somaliland? You say divide the region along clan lines, let every sub-clan rule themselves under Mogadishu. And I think there are other and better pathways possible, but as Somali’s we are hardwired and jump immediately from one bandwagon to another extreme without considering all the options, possibilities and risks, which at the same time makes any debate or consideration of alternative politics impossible as one has already jumped to a conclusion which becomes a ‘fait accompli’. 

My question to you is, in order to construct when do you have to deconstruct  and when do you have to reconstruct? 

[maakhiri1]

I must admit Awdal benefit the stability in SL and this has propelled by keeping security, peace, thousands of students live there and enjoy the peace, they intern reward the city with lots of money spent.

This is possible because of law-and-order through SL admin.

It is better to construct and make it better, yes, than destroy, we have seen this in 1991 on what happen to Somali State.

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

Abiy and his minions are becoming a source of instability in the region. It is not enough there are wars in Amhara and Oromia, now he wants to plunge the whole region into a war.

 

[Che -Guevara]