The sea is ours, and the ship is ours: Ethiopian (Oromo) nationalism on steriods

[Che -Guevara]

Ethiopian soldiers chanting, the sea is ours, the ship is ours.

 

Anyone who thinks Ethiopia wants commercial access to the sea is deluding himself.

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Arafaat]

This is a scenario that very few of the narrow minded Somali leaders have held for possible, that a day might come in which external military could pose a threat against their sovereignty. 

As they made it quite easy for Ethiopia to potential capture without effort any part of the country. As they have welcomed Ethiopia military bases and presence across the country, and worst of all they have created a politics of enmity between one another, making it very difficult to come together as they have started seeing eachother as political enemies instead of political opponents that can set their differences aside under certain circumstances.  

Abiy’s call might be a wake up call for Somalis and their leaders, and so we reverse this politics of enmity and extreme polarisation, for tomorrow might come a day one might need on another. 

[Arafaat]

Che, as SOLs Ethiopian whisperer or Expert, how would different Ethiopian communities stand if the choice was between fighting, annexing and gaining sea access if choice is between Eritrea vs Somali Lands. Do you think Oromos would be more inclined for gaining access to the Sea in Somali Lands rather then Eritrea, and how about Tigray and Amhara’s?

I know a lot of factors would play a role, but just curious to understand where communal motivations and potential drivers lay in terms of regions. 

[Che -Guevara]

56 minutes ago, Arafaat said:

Che, as SOLs Ethiopian whisperer or Expert, how would different Ethiopian communities stand if the choice was between fighting, annexing and gaining sea access if choice is between Eritrea vs Somali Lands. Do you think Oromos would be more inclined for gaining access to the Sea in Somali Lands rather then Eritrea, and how about Tigray and Amhara’s?

I know a lot of factors would play a role, but just curious to understand where communal motivations and potential drivers lay in terms of regions. 

Oromo are more inclined to capture Somali territories and eventually access the Somali seas. They have actually been successful in dispossessing lands from Somalis. Many Somali districts were transferred to the Oromo region under dubious circumstances, first under the TPLF and now Oromo Prosperity Party. Of course, all this was facilitated by the so-called Somali leaders beginning with Diridhabe which was declared as a shared city. The same thing is happening in Jigjiga now. It too could one day be a shared city considering the influx of Oromo and Amhara.

Since Abiy came to power, Somalis were either violently pushed out or Oromo moved in slowly and laid a claim, A case in point, Moyale which was entirely Somali town. It is now evenly divided, and that's only because the local Somali clans put up stiff resistance. 

There's a talk of dividing the Somali regional state into three separate states/administrations. Only one region will be purely Somali with Godey as its capital, and the other two states will be predominantly Somali.

The Somali State Government is useless. The success of the plan will depend on how Somali clans and their elders react.

Amharas and Tigrians are inclined to invade Eritrea, especially Asseb which is primarily an Afar town if given the opportunity and the might. 

The problem for Abiy, Shimelis (Oromo regional president), and other Oromo leaders is they will eventually find themselves at war with every region in Ethiopia and now their neighbors.  Their ambition is not limited to the Somali region. They have been at war with every neighboring region including Afar and Amhara who saved them from the return of the TPLF.

Everyone is now realizing what a huge mistake it was to help Abiy and his minions. Abiy will either destroy Ethiopia for good or establish an Oromo empire, nothing in between.

[Arafaat]

21 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

There's a talk of dividing the Somali regional state into three separate states/administrations. Only one region will be purely Somali with Godey as its capital, and the other two states will be predominantly Somali.

I assume that this is discussed under some sort of  devolution reform or re-organisation of lower levels of governance. Moving from provincial regions to counties, as Kenya has done, and that also other regions would be split in to sub-regions and not only Somali region? 

Either way,  for the Somalis this would be a disaster as no lower level sub-regions could ever maintain or advocate for the socio, cultural and identity concerns that are distinct for the Somali nation in Ethiopia. 

 

21 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

The Somali State Government is useless. The success of the plan will depend on how Somali clans and their elders react.

I think some clans might welcome the proposition, as they have felt abused and mistreated initially under Abdi Ileey and now many might feel marginalised under O-folks bickering and competition. Under O-folks this plan should trigger alarm bells as they have the most to loose and would make it easier to counter their political influence in smaller regional units, even though  some narrrow thinkers might look at the ‘state’ fragmentation in Somalia as an example to emulate, and think this plan would be in their benefit.

The Somali region really needs to pre-emptively counter this. I think we said before that Cagjar needs to create or support space that gives academics, thinkers and progressive leaders (independent and outside of the party and state structures) a platform to discuss, reflect and strategize on the future of the region and Somali people in Ethiopia. This would need to have a strong and divers O-folk contingency with other clans also represented, irrelevant of their political association and opposition views.

Perhaps this plan for fragmentation of the Somali nation might be the right impetus or prequisite for such a discourse for thinkers inside and abroad to concern themselves more with the future of the region. 

[Arafaat]

22 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

Everyone is now realizing what a huge mistake it was to help Abiy and his minions. Abiy will either destroy Ethiopia for good or establish an Oromo empire, nothing in between.

An Oromo empire and their political cohesion is only feasible in hostile environs and conflicts with neighbours, so perhaps their leaders want to trigger that structural hostile fault lines with neighbours as a way to ensure that strong and United Oromo nation. 

[maakhiri1]

I am really surprised by the naivety of Somalis, especially from the Slers

They underestimate the level of the program and annexation underway by Ethiopia

I tell you, Ethiopia will come to Saylac, while SLers still shouting and blaming the rest of the Somalis.

But i doubt they will hold

[maakhiri1]

Somalised OROMO is too dangerous, I agree, and has the biggest potential to displace and annex SOMALI lands

They already have done it

[maakhiri1]

On 10/27/2023 at 8:07 AM, Che -Guevara said:

 

The Somali State Government is useless. The success of the plan will depend on how Somali clans and their elders react.

 

The Somali Galbeed are suffering from Stockholm syndrome,  they are really suffering and scared the hell of the Ethiopia government, Most of the brave freedom fighters, are wiped out,  You can see it from Mustafa Cagjar face If Somali Galbeed becomes ever free, it will be because of the Somalis from the FREE Somali Republic.

I had a chat with a few, it is not an exaggeration, they could not understand why Hamas did what they did,  I say, this is how you free yourself, take note.

[Che -Guevara]

Carafaat,

The lack of leadership will be a difficult thing to overcome whether the Somali region stays as one or is divided into bits. The clans that are complaining will not fare any better even if they get their own state. The Oromo leadership will push as far as they can, but there might be a point where they are pushed back but we are not there yet.

 Things will get worse politically and economically. Just this week, the Oromo region demanded that the Somali region should not tax khat that is coming from Oromia. Even revenue streams are being cut off.

Oromo leadership is not yet politically sophisticated, but their goals are clear.

 

[Che -Guevara]

Abiy meeting with Afars, and one of his arguments is Afars have the right use to Asseb since Asseb is an Afar-majority city. He made similar arguments when it comes to reer Somaligalbeed. 

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Arafaat]

13 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:

I am really surprised by the naivety of Somalis, especially from the Slers

They underestimate the level of the program and annexation underway by Ethiopia

I tell you, Ethiopia will come to Saylac, while SLers still shouting and blaming the rest of the Somalis.

But i doubt they will hold

Yes, Somaliland politicians have miscalculated things in their political narratives and thinking, and Abiys remark have led to a political shock wave and fierce debate.  I don’t think Ethiopia will come anytime soon to Zeila or any coastal areas in Somaliland. Besides area between border and Zeila is highly mountainous, making movement very difficult and warfare easier for defending side. 

Also any attempts to take coastal areas will definitely  trigger a United front, supported by Eritrea, Djibouti and perhaps even Egypt. But nevertheless,  the sheer possibility being raised, and Ethiopian PM contemplating on this has already caused a political shock wave.