The Current Reality of Mogadishu at this moment.

[Fiqikhayre]

The Current Reality of Mogadishu at this moment.

 

This is a detailed understanding of the situation by me:

 

Al-Shabaab and Hisbul Islaam already lost and miscalculated.

 

The situation at present is very bad. Now for four days, they were supposed to be in the courtyard of Villa Somalia’s Presidential Palace and one thousand steps away from decapitating the Shariif‘s and PM‘s ‘western-backed‘ government with no gain of yet.

 

I will answer a few questions now in order to understand the complexities behind this latest infighting

 

1. What let to these latest hostilities?

 

It is clear, that the newly composed umbrella organisation of Hisbul Islaam, which has many components in it, let to this latest upsurge in Violence.

 

Al-Shabab joined the cause, together with other important but not key elements of Hisbul Islaam, mainly those from Gedo, lower Shabelle and Jubba regions.

 

Hisbul Islaam and Al-Shabaab alone could not mastermind such an ambitious mutiny, without a certain factor, in other words, the Key component of the war.

 

They tried it before, a couple of months ago, but were lacking a crucial ingredient, thus they were in limbo and therefore failed miserably. Hassan Dahir Aweys arrival was a key moment as he rallied them together, promising his full support and working with them to help them and him achieve their overall goals in Somalia.

 

It was a alliance of convenience of sorts, as both needed each other in order to get rid of the Shariif’s government in Somalia on one hand and re-console and thus rehabilitate ina Dahir Awey’s sub-clan on the other hand.

[Fiqikhayre]

2. Why did Hisbul Islaam and Al-Shabab so easily capture the majority of the city of Mogadishu?

 

That is a very easy question to answer.

 

a. The militias of Al-Shabab and Hisbul Islaam are very disciplined as to the Propaganda and beliefs compared to those of the government

 

b. They have a working, clear and functioning command structure in place, which is not the case for the bulk of the government soldiers and clan militias supporting the army

 

c. They’re united in their ideology, goals and visions and hence fight as One synonymous unit (the government on the other hand, had problems in uniting its different components of their army and militias due to the merger)

 

d. The realisation and fact, that Shariif’s Maxakiim were in fact a toothless body and the lie that he had an army, that could merge with the TFG, which was a fraudulent lie by the west and Ahmedou Walad Abdalla, to make the Shariif seem like an authority and make him seat on the Presidents chair.

 

e. Hassan Dahir Aweys cunning plan and preparation of the war, which was to dupe the Shariif to believe he had an militia or army from Hassan Dahir Aweys clan. He was paying militias loyal to Hassan Dahir Aweys at the expense of his own clan militia. Which resulted in them deserting and easily vacating or letting through, the enemy, and the other government loyal militias disperse due to demoralisation and the deceit by the militias Shariif Ahmed was paying who were now undermining the already forgotten, scatterd and demoralised loyal government militias and soldiers. It was a brilliant plan that worked out good in the initial days with great success and land taking by the fox and mastermind by the name of Hassan Dahir Aweys.

 

f. The idiocy and foolishness of Shariif Ahmed, who is very ineffective and really a novice to the complexities of the deceit employed by Hassan Dahir Aweys and his sub clan.

[Fiqikhayre]

3. How will events unfold i.e develop, what will be the next step?

 

There are already signs that the back-clash has begun. The Shariif is not lacking firepower nor manpower but what he’s lacking is a clue, experience and real comprehension of the situation right now. But this will be compensated by the acknowledged of him to that home truth.

 

Now here comes in his predecessor Abdullaahi Yusuf Ahmed, who he will have a lot to thank for because unlike 2006, the clan of Hassan Dahir Aweys, is not as strong in manpower as they were back then. The coordinated attacks then, were spearheaded by a certain sub clan. Contrary to some claims in this forum, the sub-clan has been severely damaged and many of them have been killed in the two years Abdullahi Yusuf was at the helm of the TFG.

 

It is true that others fought in the battles raging in Mogadishu in the last two years but they, the sub clan did their share as well and thus were collectively damaged as a formidable unit. This could be the greatest accomplishment Abdullahi Yusuf and the Ethiopians did for the Shariif.

 

This can be witnessed by the fighting’s in the Central regions of Somalia, mainly Dhuusamareeb and Guriceel, were the mainly fighting alliance was the ‘Ahlu Sunnah wal Jamaacah’, which after some realisation, and they found themselves in charge of Dhuusamareeb after defeating the Al-sShabaab, they found to their amusement, that almost all of their components and militias were made up of neighbouring rival clans, such as those from Cabudwaaq and Xaraale. He has indeed a lot to thank for Abdullaahi Yusuf.

 

What is a key problem to the infighting now is, that Hassan Dahir Aweys, who live in the south side of the city of Mogadishu and which is now in the hands of Hisbul Islaam and Al-Shabab, that has experienced so much destruction and shelling in the last two years and which has been the liveable part of that city in the past two decades, with upmarket private owned housing, businesses and schools.

 

Due to the war in Mogadishu in the last two years, the district has been reduced to rubble and much has been lost, as to the northern half, of which the President Shariif himself is from has emerged as the new upmarket place at town now, the war is much more designed to reshape the contribution of wealth to its original core, whereby the south of the city reigned over the northern part of the city of Mogadishu, thus they want to interrupt and destroy the peace and success of the north, as they accuse the north of the city of having harboured and being in the cohorts of former President Abdullahi Yusuf and the Ethiopian mercineries.

 

Thus the underlying message of my writing and understanding of the situation is, that now has come the end of that said sub-clans betrayl and lunching of futile wars and refusal of effective governance taking shape and therefore an large understanding by all Somalis, who the real obstacles were in the formation of Nation Building and thus a new dawn has emerged for Somalia.

 

The new dawn is sidelining the bad elements within those sub-clan and largely they have been exterminated so far, from the central regions they’re no more formidable and in Mogadishu they’re coming to a close as well.

 

They cannot hide behind Al-Shabab anymore as this shirt and card has been over-used by them. Intelligent men like Goobaale understand the dire situation of now and the side-lining of Siciid Dheere for the moment is also a intelligent move as the clan card cannot be used anymore as well. So there’s nothing left except capitulation. Shariif has got what Abdullahi Yusuf didn’t have and that’s a clan pressence inside Mogadishu and with that believe that Shariifka together with his clan, the Somali army and militias at disposal, the sane and peace loving Somalis ‘Inay soo afjari doonaan dhawaanahan waalidan dhamaadka lahayn’, if they don’t, then they’re worse than a dead donkey.

 

Good riddance.

[Duufaan]

Was not Nur Cade from Moqdisho northern clan? The last man who defeated A/Yusuf out of Somali politics, not even motioning Geedi. What really makes different from north clan? Historically they have been pro colonial. In Somalia always pro colonial tribes loses.

 

No doubt Sh.away is a brave Muslim and Somali man, even Washington can tell.