Where are the heavyweights?

[Captain Xalane]

To submit themselves is the only alternative they have lest they wish to Perish.No one is begging no one this time , the involved pple know it too.The only way forward is a militray solution for Somalia.

[Fabregas]

Originally posted by Paragon:

quote: Advice to Islamists...embrace the negotiated settlement proposal, use the IC gathering in cairo and issue statement via Sherif renouncing the use of violence as political tool to reach the party's political objectives. Demand more involvement of this group in the transition period. Declare UIC as a political party, name "moderates" as the exucative slate, and define its political platform and issue a document detailing how they think we should manage the country during the transition period as well as post-conlict era. They gotta undertsand how the game is played and played it like a pro. Khidca is allowed in times of war! Just do it!

This is an advice? It is a call to surrender all hopes.

It isn't advice it is a surrender call.......

[Ana_Juwa2]

Exactly

 

Very Disappointing but suffice to say predictible anaylsis which i might add fails to take into account that the dynamic's of any future political process inclusive or not will be dictated by the likes of AY Gheedi and the ethopians.

 

Do you convinantly forget what has occured over teh past week or so, what is still occuring with further deployment of troops to other defactor Ethopian towns?

[Emperor]

War anagaa wax aragnay, oday Baashi cid ha is dhiibtay ma uusan oran ee wax la isugu imaan karo oo feasible ah, Kuwa dowlada taageersan waxa uu kuyiri eega balse intaaba idinku inaad qaadataan ma ahan khasab ee Fikirkiina soo daaya sida Baashi intaad calaacalaysaan... taasu waa hala is dhiibo kuhaysaan.

 

Baashi good read and well thought piece of writing, looking forward to challenge and expose weak points.. laakiin waa inaan usoo fakaraa LOL

[N.O.R.F]

Gents

 

Baashi has proposed a get out of this mess card. Does anyone else have any such cards?

[Fabregas]

Baashi meesha wuxu so dhigay talo fican, lakin wax cusub maha oo boqol jeer oo hore ba arimaha laga hadlay. His proposals assume that all parties concerned are rational beings, who are willing to sacrifice their political/religious: assumptions,principles and beliefs. Of course in the real world such things are not as straighforward.

 

Firstly, his suggestion that Sheikh Shariff should go to Cairo and "renounce" violence, whilst asking for more political involvement, is nothing short of a surrender in my books. He refused their proposals way before the war. When they came to him in Yemen, Djibouti and Khartoum. He declined to " renounce terrorism" and "violence", when the U.S came to him in Nairobi. Judging from his interview on Aljazeera, he still holds firmly to his original position, which is that: he and his supporters will resist Ethiopain troops as long as they are inside their own territory. To suggest that he will all of a sudden go back and renounce his previous positions thus claim to be a pacifist, is extremely wishful thinking. The political proposals proposed by Ethiopia to him and other like minded people have always being unacceptable. The EthiopianS simply want them to:

 

Disarm and hand their weapons to the T.F.G, renounce the "extremists" or perhaps even hand them over and drop all suggestions of claims of the Somali inhabited region inside Ethiopia.

 

One could say the third could be a political reality, after all, previous Somali political groups have dropped their claims over this region. However, the first and the second are unacceptable to them for obvious reasons. They cannot disarm and hand in their weapons over to the T.F.G, whilst their are thousands of Ethiopian troops inside Somali soil, whom are hunting their own members. The second is unacceptable because they see the "extremists" as freedom fighters and patriotic people, whom are defending their land.

 

On the other hand the T.F.G is also unlikely to negotiate directly with the Islamists. Just as it is unacceptable to the Islamists that they hand over their weapons, whilst their are Ethiopian troops inside Somalia, it is equally unacceptable to the T.F.G that they( Islamists) demand the withdrawl of Ethiopian troops, because they believe they are within their legitimate rights to invite whoever they like to Somalia. Moreover, the T.F.G and Ethiopians cannot and do not want to be seen to be negotiating with the "Extremists". Ali Geedi, has already proclaimed that Sheikh Shariff and other members will be "treated" as criminals and brought before a Somali Court. Also, the Ethiopians and T.F.G want to be seen to be capturing extremists and terrorists on behalf of America.Otherwise, the money will run dry, they say fighting Alqaeda is big money these days.

 

It is also highly unlikely that the more ideoligically orientated people such as Hassan Dahir Aweys and Ceyrow(Al Shabab) will not be "renouncing violence" and are intent on resisting the Ethiopian to the Death. Even if Sheikh Shariff renounces violence, what will it mean for his own men, who are being hunted? Thus there will not be a shortfall of like minded ideologists who are willing to carry out: ambushes, Suicide operations and other acts against the Ethiopian troops. We have already seen one man lunge his car packed with explosives into their army base. Again, it is highly unlikely that these groups will renounce violence, whilst there are Ethiopian troops on Somali soil, and vice versa for the Ethiopian troops, who have vowed to crush and chase the Extremists inside Somalia. I also hear that Unlce Sam has given them, the greenlight for them to continue doing so, for the time being.

 

I will be back with more, sometime in the near future inshallah!

[Fiqikhayre]

Our most respected resident and elder has spoken and proposed a very good solution on top of that. Well done Baashi.

 

However I have my doubts, that your well thought over proposal will fall on any ears because the sub-clan movement has other objectives and thus will fall deaf to your advice and recommendation.

 

For them it is an 'appeal to surrender' but in fact it's a proposal for them to change their ways and tactics that will get them no were but further isolated. I believe the government is ready and willing to talk but until now, the elders of that sub clan refused to even engage in talks with the TFG.

 

The other thing is that the radicals and extremists who only know how to kill and wage futile revolutions cannot be talked to because they're not intend for peace. This extremists will not except any negotiations and talks because of the simple fact that they're religious extremists, who have nothing on the sunnah nor do they follow the righteous Salafs but only their misguided ideology of creating futile 'Islamic revolutions' and fighting futile wars, in which they claim 'success' after bombing civilians, setting up road bombs in which again only civilians will get hurt and firing RPG’s from civilian neighbourhoods therefore exposing them (the civilians and their fragile houses) to be subjected to heavy shelling.

 

Is that Islamic? They will be brought in front of Allah to be answerable for their crimes because they brought this on the civilians.

 

Baashi was right when he questioned the tactics used here, what is the logic of vacating the city in the claim of saving lives and protecting the innocent, when in fact, you only moved into specific neighbourhoods to use as a military base where you can launch your ill-prepared 'clan-jihaad' on a legitimate government you acknowledged before, but you now fight because of you claiming that you want to get the 'Ethiopians' out of Somalia, so how do you get them out?

 

You left the town and said you will fight in more strategic and remote areas because you were defeated really badly and you cannot afford to fight a conventional war, that's why you switched to fighting a classic guerrilla war in the intend/pretend that you want to save lives and therefore you vacated the city of millions to prevent fighting a urban war which will only kill many more innocent lives.

 

So, where's the guerrilla war? Non existent, that's why you are now engaged in an urban face to face war in the city of millions which you intended to prevent in order to save lives, where's the logic?

[Fiqikhayre]

This people are not fighting a real cause as we can now see that a local sub-clan movement has emerged from the local based clan court movements after all the ICU was a local clan based court system and the new sub-clan movement existed before and now that sub-clan is expressing it's grievances that they felt left out of the new political reality and process on the ground because they backed the wrong horse in the first place and now they shout the H-clan name in vain because they know they have lost all their powers and that now their brethren in North Mogadishu suburbs such as Kaaraan and Madina have now the upperhand as they supported the TFG from its interception when Cali Maxamed Gheedi was made Prime minister of Somalia.

 

Baashi was right to see this as a political power struggle of who controls Benadir add to the ingredient that the clan movement is rivaling their fellow clan brethren, who themselves now think, the city of Mogadishu has finally fallen into their hands because they think of themselves as the original owners of that city. I'm talking about the Karaan, Shibis and Madina districts clans plus other historical rivalries the clans who are behind this new clan intifada now, the former advocators for the clan courts had with their so-called 'enemies' the D-Clan, who they thought they had liberated themselves from their rule along time ago and now they're thinking 'was that all for vain, all the years of struggling'?

 

Combine that to what I said earlier the so much talked about 'lootings', which they want to protect but they would give up the 'loot' and return it to their proper and rightful owners but they want guarantees, that they will not lose power over Benadir district or Mogadishu at large and that is their biggest fear by far.

 

The clan intifada that is now being played out is intended for all those purposes and it focuses on how the clan can get a bigger voice in the political process and power struggle over Mogadishu, Benadir and Somalia at large because they lost their voice, when they were defeated and now they feel that they are being further subjugated by being asked to fully disarm without being given anything in return and that's why they are pursuing forceful settlement by actually taking 'the clans share of political power' by force. This hostilities however would ironically stop and cease, the day, the Premier would change and one of their choosing would become the new Prime Minister however that move would in turn make the peaceful and pro-government residents of North Mogadishu start opposing the government and fight in their districts because they would now themselves feel betrayed, used and subjugated and that they are now the 'target' and that they're losing the grip on the city which they historically dominated as they view that clan, that is now fighting the government as invaders from the central regions of Somalia.

 

So everyone is fighting for their interests now and I also see now that the clan intifada has ejected the extremist elements out of their midst, which could only be welcomed because the extremists would have never accepted any peace dealings or negotiations because they're extremists, who want to drive out the so-called 'invaders' by force. However their tactics are wrong and were wrong from the start and Al-Qaeda and Khwarij minded folks have never brought anything good to society apart from bloodshed, displacement and killing and their claim to glory and fame is that they fired one mortar from a civilian neighbourhood and that they're fighting in densely populated urban areas, in where they killed 'twelve invaders' at the expense of five hundred innocent lives. They cannot win this war and the longer they fight on, the longer the people will suffer and the nation will bleed, so we need to eject such extremism and futile would-be 'jihadists' from amongst our midst and the sub-clan fighters need to be disarmed willingly or unwillingly and their fight is only to get a political voice, keep their monopoly and domination in terms of business and political power they once enjoyed in Mogadishu and to keep the looted properties and keep alive the 'independency' of the clan from the much hated D-clan who they think came to rule them again in their own backyard and make them a 'second-class citizen' again.

 

That is their fear and the only way to appease them or calm down their fears is a political settlement they could live with, especially a promotion to the Prime minister position or if this fails favourably something which will give them a driving seat in the affairs of Mogadishu and Benadir however this would take them into discourse and disagreement and possible physical fight with their brethren who seem now to have the advantage over both Mogadishu and Benadir affairs as well as national affairs as they hold the PM position.

[Fiqikhayre]

So I propose the following:

 

1. The extremists minority have left and vacated the areas where they fighting took place and I believe that they did not have any other choice but to vacate the city and they wouldn't have been talked to anyway as they wouldn't accept any talks and negotiations by themselves. They inflicted great harm on the people by their stubbornness and extremism and their immoral fighting amongst civilians and in civilian populated areas. They're out of the window. This people can never bring about a real Islamic revolution as they're truly misguided. Anyhow they were a minority anyway and together with their 'foreign friends' they left and vacated a couple days ago.

 

2. The moderates and their elements were and are being welcomed and they should be talked to but they're in a minority anyway.

 

3. The vast majority who is the subclan and the clan movement who are behind this 'clan intifada' need to be brought in to the political process for their own good and the nations good but how do we do that?

 

First of all this people and their leaders, the clan warriors need to be condemned because they're using their own people as some kind of political bargaining in the disguise of 'forcing out the Ethiopian invaders who came to us to occupy our country'.

 

They're after a political voice, that will give them some muscle's in order to participate in the political process, which they lost when they sided and backed the wrong horse, which sadly lost and their brethren the residents of North Mogadishu (Gheedi’s and Mahdi’s sub-clan) are now in a good position both on national and regional level to dominate the agenda of the political process and what goes on both nationally and regionally which very much angers the sub-clan behind the 'clan intifada'.

 

So will giving them the prime minister position solve the problem?

 

Yes and No I believe, Yes because I can only hope that the residents of North Mogadishu see the wisdom behind this move (I know it's silly thing to say) but somehow they have to accept it and won't make life to difficult for the government, which they supported and invested into so much. But I doubt it and I would find it a extremely unwise move (I know live isn't fair and it would sound naive for me to say I find it totally unfair but I will say and add that 'I would find it a unfair move as well).

 

The No parts stems directly from the Yes, in which I only reiterated my 'hope' that the sub-clan of North Mogadishu (Ali Mahdi's and Gheedi's clan) will accept their demotion of what they invested and worked so hard for. But that is only a hope and I see that not happening.

 

Conclusion:

 

So I see no way out except of course, the sub-clan behind the clan intifada accepts a 'minor role' and consolation as some kind force that leads regional affairs but again I would find that extremely unlikely as well and the residents of North Mogadishu (Ali Mahdi's and Gheedi's clan would not accept it either I believe) so what is the solution?

 

Force is never a solution but I believe for the good of the city, region and country the 'invaders' from the central region have to be disarmed and accept the political reality on the ground and accept the defeat and reality that, their backed horse lost and therefore they have only themselves to play, when they feel subjugated and when they feel that they lost their business monopoly and a say in both regional and national politics.

 

At least until next time, when elections will be held inshallah and then they can challenge for national and regional political dominance but they have to accept that others have invested now in the TFG and that they now have the monopoly because they backed the TFG, the winners whilst they backed their local sub-clan based court system/movement.

 

So the residents and people of North Mogadishu are in the driving seat both on National and regional affairs and there's nothing there can be done about until 2009 when fresh elections are scheduled inshallah.

 

That's my conclusion and Sakhar is always real and always tells how it is.

 

If I would reveal too much, this site wouldn’t function properly anymore so I will leave it at that.

 

Sakhar.

[xiinfaniin]

Geeljirow, Baashi waa taliyey!

 

There is no reason to resort to violence if Ethiopians are withdrawn. If the Ethiopians are still on Somali soil, however, violence will remain a legitimate tool to resist and oppose their presence. Now what Baashi is saying, if I read him right, is that the muqaawamah needs to state that in principle violence is not their preferred means to achieve political goals; that they understand and appreciate Somalis are tired of wars and need peace and the return of governance; that they are willing to allow a compromised deal in the interim to get this country out of its current state; and that, provided that Ethiopia withdraws, they are ready to swallow their pride and concede for the common good. That’s how I read him. And with that, I agree.

 

There is no contradiction in renouncing violence, on a one hand, as a means to reach your goals if there are other recourses to attain the same exact objectives, and insisting on the continuation of armed insurgency if certain conditions are not met, on the other hand.

 

As a side note let me say this: I hate waxing eloquent on the brutal clarity of war, but if Ethiopian forces continue to remain on Somali soil nothing short of violence, I hold, will secure their abrupt withdrawal. War, more war, and more war is the only logical answer to such a naked aggression of Ethiopia and its backers to subdue a genuine movement that not only enjoyed, and still enjoys, an unprecedented popular support from wide spectrum of Somalis, but also succeeded in returning a large portion of Somalia’s troubled south to normalcy and peace. Death, mass and forced exodus, and other human sufferings are the virtues of war but if the alternative is living under Ethiopia's brutal occupation, fighting and resisting becomes a legitimate tool to make one’s own point.

[Faarax-Brawn]

The saddest thing of all is the fact that this TFG seems to lack the authority to make commitment on political deal without the consent of its sponsor. That's a deal breaker if you ask me.

Advice to Islamists...embrace the negotiated settlement proposal, use the IC gathering in cairo and issue statement via Sherif renouncing the use of violence as political tool to reach the party's political objectives. Demand more involvement of this group in the transition period. Declare UIC as a political party, name "moderates" as the exucative slate, and define its political platform and issue a document detailing how they think we should manage the country during the transition period as well as post-conlict era. They gotta undertsand how the game is played and played it like a pro. Khidca is allowed in times of war! Just do it!

Baashi, I chose to quote these two seemingly contradictory passages for a reason. First, How do you expect to go into a political dialogue with a group that is unable to make any independent decision? Secondly, sitting down with an invading army is not dialogue,its surrendering and accepting an illegal occupation.

 

If,as you said, The TFG cannot make any tangible decisions on the impasse right now, then how in the world would anyone have a meaningful discussion for the way forward for Somalia? At best,they should be disbanded completely!

 

If you are saying that the wadaads should wave a white flag & accept the TFG propped ethiopian government,then i am afraid you are proposal is a recipe for disaster[As is the case right now]. For if that was an option,they would have done this the first time the Tigre invaded and killed all those brave somalis, but more importantly,its the IUC's core belief to keep the Tigre christian orthodox nation off Somali Soil.(Thought i should remind you this is what got us in here first).

 

Adeer,frankly speaking, on this side of the aisle, There is only one way out of this: Complete withdrawal of ethiopian forces & then dialogue with an Independent TFG is acceptable. The sooner the TFG accepts this FACT,the better their chance of governing Somalia better.

 

May allah have mercy on the innocent.

[Fabregas]

Xiin, the solution being offered in Somalia today is simply: " we have Ethipians tanks surrender or else". This was the solution offered before the war to Shariff and is still being offered today. The Government, said on the first day that they would disarm the population of Muqdisho by force. They have still not being able to do this, infact there are more and more weapons flooding Muqdisho today. The government was and still is being carried away with the new power they have achieved thanks to Ethiopian tanks. This indoctrination of power was also the downfall of the Islamic Courts. Even with all the weaponry and tanks, the Ethiopians were fought to a standstill by people with little sophisticated weaponry. My prediction is that the Ethiopians will stay in Somali for some while.As a result of this the people who oppose them will increase day by day. Their actions over the last few days will make more people join the ranks of those that resist Ethiopian troops. Despite the bravado of some T.F.G members on here, the Ethiopain tanks are actually damaging the legitimacy of the Somali Government. Just as the indicriminate bombardment of people in Waziristan and Helamand, has swelled the ranks of the Taliban. The presence of Ethiopian troops will prolong and attract violence in Somalia. Of course, people say the solution is their withdrawl, but something tells me,they are not going anywhere soon!