Complexity of Evil group Shabab

[maakhiri1]

 

[maakhiri1]

it will be extremely difficult to defeat them, the level of penetration is mind boggling.

the Somali people are not ready or serious to take fight to them and have petty unnecessary political fights.

[galbeedi]

This is definitely connected to foreign intelligence. These bombs can't be assembled these nomads. These are army grade improvised explosive device  (IED) that needs only to attach to the vehicle by magnet. Only advanced countries could build this.

The biggest obstacle to defeat them is that these operatives have no any religious or human morality. He probably get paid $100 dollar or less. I have seen the interview of  young killers who went to take pictures or play soccer after killing innocent people.

A few well trained intelligence gathering cadre could easily apprehend these killers.

[Illyria]

Hudson institute, a DoD outlet released its September report. Its conclusion:

Consequently, the situation looks less promising than it did at the end of 2022, and al-Shabaab is unlikely to face a meaningful defeat in the coming months. Instead, the best-case scenario would see this military offensive degrade al-Shabaab over the coming months to the point that the terrorist organization partially fractures and loses some of its popular support, possibly opening up room for the FGS to negotiate with factions of the group. A more likely scenario, however, would see the conflict remain a stalemate, with the government’s current offensive bringing only temporary or superficial gains that do not meaningfully degrade al-Shabaab’s capacity.

Given the improbability of a decisive military victory in the coming months or even years, the previously taboo notion of negotiating with the terrorists has gained traction in certain Somali political circles of late. President Hassan Sheikh has even oscillated between claiming that the objective of the current offensive is al-Shabaab’s complete battlefield defeat and claiming that the offensive aims to push the group into negotiations.

[ ]

In principle there is no reason to prefer an endless and fitful counterinsurgency to negotiations, but in practice it would be difficult to secure anything like an acceptable compromise at this stage. Some Somali security sources with knowledge of the group suggested that while al-Shabaab might enter negotiations with international powers, such as the US and Turkey (likely with mediation by Qatar, whose role in Somalia has proven controversial), it has no interest in speaking to the Somali government, which it sees as illegitimate and weak.

[ ]

At present this looks to be the best-case scenario, though unfortunately not the most likely one. But policymakers would do well to consider scenarios that might be acceptable to their interests rather than buy into unrealistic claims about the impending defeat of Africa’s most powerful jihadist group.

 

Faltering Lion: Analyzing Progress and Setbacks in Somalia’s War against al-Shabaab | Hudson

WWW.HUDSON.ORG

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[deal-me-in]

The disregard for human life is just shocking.  Makes you wonder how it came to this.  What on earth could sway the minds of these young men (note: I said MEN) to find peace?

 

[deal-me-in]

Hopefully a loss of public support does lead to an opening for negotiation. At least it could possibly lead to an end to the violence.

[deal-me-in]

It is also a good point that an acceptable compromise is unlikely. I suppose some kind of progress is better than nothing. What are the other options at this point?

[atlanta-bob]

situation does seem quite hopeless.

[deal-me-in]

You dont see any path forward?

[atlanta-bob]

I think you are correct that it will need to come to negotiation. Getting both parties to communicate is a good enough start that may eventually lead to some resolution.

[deal-me-in]

I wonder if the connection to foreign intelligence is correct and that is where their interests will be made known. At the negotiating table.

[atlanta-bob]

While it is possible that the Shabab may have ties to foreign intelligence agencies, there is no evidence of this at this time. The group's primary focus has been on domestic political goals, including establishing a hardline Islamic state in Somalia.

[deal-me-in]

Who funds their pursuit of those goals? Arms cost money.

[atlanta-bob]

Shabab does not fund its arms pursuits. The government of Somalia provides funding for arms purchases and Shabab exploits this vulnerability to receive support from the government of Somalia.

[deal-me-in]

How on earth do you know that Somalia is funding these efforts?