Djibouti project seems like another fake dawn.

[General Duke]

Djibouti project seems like another fake dawn.

 

The djibouti meetings of 1991 which produced Ali Mahdi and 1999 which created the Abdiqasin led Arta project both where welcomed by the government starved people of Somalia, both were ill thought out and both failed.

 

This new project of Walid Abdalla and the NGO's seems to be going the same route, a bloated congress , and a rushed job combining the federal institutions to the so called "Islamists" using the same formula which the opposition used to object to which is the 4.5 clan distribution.

 

The problem with this group is who names the 275MP's that is given to the opposition, its clear these men are named by Sharif Ahmed and his group, thus not from their clans and not from their regions. Thus what authority will they carry if their legitimate position is even less credibal than the previous 275 who were named by their clans and regions.

 

The Somali's will again welcome a new government for the state, but what will be their fate, will they try to impose order or will they at the top level eat the donations and sit in their holes like Abdiqasin waiting for the next reconciliation conference?

 

This is a donors project led by the UN and their NGO's in Nairobi, the Somali's have found no solution to this deadly group [NGO's] and we must try ti overcome them with time.

[Juje]

Originally posted by General Duke:

The problem with this group is who names the 275MP's that is given to the opposition, its clear these men are named by Sharif Ahmed and his group, thus not from their clans and not from their regions. Thus what authority will they carry if their legitimate position is even less credibal than the previous 275 who were named by their clans and regions.

Indeed! Their legitimacy will be the same as the previous 275 who were named by Ethiopians and their allies in the Somali political world.

"Wareegta waa silsiilaade" ma maqli jirtey sxb.

[General Duke]

Adeer Juje, lets even take your comments a little seriously, thus they [new group] will face even more problems than the other group before them, considering their pay, their accommodation and even their coherence as a governing body.

 

My dear lad we have moved on and are working on real progress, grassroots developmental change while they photo copy a failed system..

[Twisted_Logic]

Political Algebra 101

 

Core argument in this Topic:

 

''My Uncle is humiliated and defeated by the Jabuti agreement and has been chased out to Yemen by fears for the Islamic groups...Jabuti conference will fail,,,because my uncle is not in it''

 

 

Act though when your team is doing well in the game...but cry foul when your team is humiliated and defeated utterly in their own dirty game.

[Chimera]

2006 changed everything, there is no need to look back at the ancient past, the path to reconciliation started from that year on.

 

- The year when the population finally grew tired of the warlords and gave birth to a grass roots movement that obliterated the warlords and their petty chiefdoms and despite with all their foreign support they are still unable to return to their previous positions

 

- The year 6 months of nabad was delivered to a population that had forgotten the joy of stability and peace and this period is an era the people on the ground will never forget, it's this yearning of ''returning to this era of nabad'' that has completely destroyed the psychological stumble block that is so common in peoples that have experienced years of war - which is the loss of hope

 

- The year when the invisible hands that instigated conflicts and shipped arms to different sections over the last decade were forced to show themselves out in the open after witnessing all these positive changes. Today they are all naked, cold and confused with all their sinister plans thrown in the bin, all they have been left with is a bitter shamefull defeat.

 

Somalia Ha noolaato!

[Twisted_Logic]

^^

 

Very well put.

 

2006 was a turning point indeed. It was as significant as 1991, a year which changed everything we knew thusfar.

 

Post-2006:

 

- Warlord era is gone: at least the known warlords who behaved in the known ways.

 

There is a chance of religious warlodism to arise though, so we should be really carefull for this.

 

- Ethiopian direct involvement is gone: at least they do not dare to come at the centre of Somali politics and economy: Mogadishu, and have resorted back to their old tactics of arming Somali factions and operating from the border-region.

 

- Most importantly, Mogadishu society has changed dramatically.

 

The people of Mogadishu have seen many things that are possible and not only limited to daydreams:

 

- Defeat of the infamous Mogadishu warlords: SInce 1991 the people of Mogadishu fantasized about a society free of warlordism and criminals roaming the streets. They could not imagine the defeat of the warlords and the restoration of peace and stability, and all changed in 2006!

 

Warlords were defeated utterly and chased out of the city, 6 months of GLORIOUS PEACE AND STABILITY.

 

Again, in 2009 after 2-3 years of bloody Ethiopian occupation and the displacement of 1 million people, and the massacre of 17.000 persons, Mogadishu society witnessed again another miracle: The defeat of this bloody occupation and the resilience of Mogadishu society.

 

Mass demonstration in which the people of Mogadishu propagated for PEACE AND STABILITY.

 

Now, Mogadishu society is never as united as it is today. They are united in a COMMON DEEP HUNGER FOR PEACE AND STABILITY.

 

They do not care for the dirty game of politics and different factions fighting in the city: they want all one thing: PEACE AND STABILITY, and today they are ready to die for those ideals. Mogadishu society is united in fighting ruthlessly against any faction that denies the city and its people those two things: PEACE AND STABILITY. Hence why Alshabaab has heeded the signs on the wall, and changed tactics from fighting with no regard for the people to doing community works.

 

Mogadishu society has indeed come stronger out of the brutal nightmare of 2004-2009.

 

Despite the wishes and forecasts of outsiders, Mogadishu society came stronger and not weaker out of the countless conflicts since 2004.

 

Unity of Purpose: PEACE AND STABILITY. Mogadishu citizens all want those 2 things.

 

 

PEACE AND STABILITY 2 Mogadishu= the foundation for a strong SOMALIA.

[Jacaylbaro]

Originally posted by Twisted_Logic:

Political Algebra 101

 

Core argument in this Topic:

 

''My Uncle is humiliated and defeated by the Jabuti agreement and has been chased out to Yemen by fears for the Islamic groups...Jabuti conference will fail,,,because my uncle is not in it''

 

 

Act though when your team is doing well in the game...but cry foul when your team is humiliated and defeated utterly in their own dirty game.

[Fabregas]

Even faraxz in London are reportedly trying to bid for places. lol.

[NASSIR]

Gen. Duke has raised good points. Through the policy disaster of Mr. Bush and the recession time, The D-jibouti peace accord is in conformity with the United States' shift of foreign policy from its unilateral and aggressive engagement with the Islamist it deems as a threat to its national security - in the sense of economic security. America's critical interest as clearly outlined in her National Security report is to protect its key interests, allies, regions. Somalia is not her ally in the region thus its active navigation of D-jibouti deal defies this principle since Somalia's independence. Even when Ethiopia fully embraced communism, it was still favored over Somalia. A regime that sits on huge reserves of untapped oil and minerals and which's hostile or unwilling to partner with the way business is done is usually met with absolute and unrestrained force and subsequent defiance of its viable existence. I remember listening to a western educated young lady from Venezuela (perhaps under secret contract) speaking to a BBC news anchor. She appeared calculated, voracious and vehement in her criticism of Venezuela's president and his handling of the private sector and human rights violations. When asked to explain the overwhelming approval rating Chavez enjoys in his country, she stammered and started dancing around the Q.

 

It's difficult to forge unity and a coherent national policy that is in tandem with the sentiment and needs of the public or any positive course of action that reflect their needs. As far as the Evangelical TFG is concerned, whatever formed will be desperately short of addressing the real issues because they are not properly framed. Winners and losers emerge out of a grand design and they vanish once the structural deficit of the plan is feigned to be known. How long it takes, the sheer devastation that it may result, matter not.

What you have in D-Jibouti is a bunch of power-hungary, discomfitted, and self-styled clan representives who unabashedly behave the same way and enviously crowd out and place surveillance of their next move.

The D-jibouti accord might not unchart a transitional government hamstrung by limited capacity and control and internal division. How it plans to reverse the death spiral has not been explained in a clear and unambiguous means.

Shariif Ahmed had a wider and mass appeal within his UIC establishment. Ever since his self-induced exile and failure to partake the resistance on the ground or adhere to the principles of "no foreign troops," he lost respect, trust and the leadership mantle and he has been transformed into a puppet on string. From day one, he was accused of having secret ties with U.S as they stamped him with labels which relatively distinguished him as admirable, good, moderate and flexible. Whereas his friend, Aweis and by extension the core nucleus of the movement against warlordism, Ethiopianism, Secessionism , was put on the most wanted list.

 

As I have said before, the prisoner's dilemma card has been employed here. Shariif collaborated after he was promised a lesser punishment and future rewards.

 

As Duke said, Shariif has already secured 275 votes in the first round. He is slated to be the undisputed winner of the new TFG.

[General Duke]

Camir, as always thoughtful and to the point, to the naysayer your point is invalid and shortsighted. My uncle served his term and then resigned, the onus is now on those who said he was an obstacle to peace. Consider that there was no peace before him and since we have had hundreds dead from central regions to today’s suicide attack, nothing has changed.

 

Lets survey the Somali landscape of today, Puntland and Somaliland seem to be secure and moving foreword they have their own inherent issues but are spared from the mindless violence of the south.

 

The southern cities of Marka, Kismayu, are in complete control of the Al Shabaab and Raskamboni groups who are not part of the Djibouti farce, they have continued their fighting and now strangle hold the city of Baidoa. Sharif Ahmed and his group who now want to profit from the 4.5 neither have the clout nor the military muscle to retake this areas. If one hears Goodane’s speech and the replies of Ahmed Diriye and Janagow, it seems there is not only a political difference but also a religious ideological gab that can not be filled by the Djibouti agreement and the rushed proceedings taking place.

 

What is the answer? Obviously blaming Yusuf is no longer an option, the Ethiopians are no longer an excuse, thus who is behind this rushed job. Why are those who used to insult the 4.5 formula now want to employ it, what about the Al Shabaab, Turki and his group and those in Asmara? Should they also be given 275MP’s as this is the new solution and should after a few years failure the parliament be increased again?

 

The solution was simple, build up national institutions, police military and then secure the country piece meal and at incremental steps.

This NGO program was aimed at toppling an existing government and not aimed at creating another one.

 

Again the naysayer, add your view points, attacking Abdullahi Yusuf is meaningless, he served his time defeated all his enemies and it took the great powers of the world to deal with him and sickness, he went to Garowe oversaw an election and then went out in style. If that’s a humiliation we should all be humiliated..

[LayZie G.]

^

Again the naysayer, add your view points, attacking Abdullahi Yusuf is meaningless, he served his time defeated all his enemies and it took the great powers of the world to deal with him and sickness, he went to Garowe oversaw an election and then went out in style. If that’s a humiliation we should all be humiliated..

Oscar worthy performance there ya dukey.

[General Duke]

^^^ Thanks for that, but I wanted a BAFTA..

[RedSea]

Looks like Embaghati sequel. I agree the part where you said those who use to insult the 4.5 are now taking advantage of that same divisive formula. Which is not only hypocritical but also shows how weak these people's religious convictions are. They were against it when it did not serve their purpose but are now for it, because they know they can get same amount of attention from the International community as the exile warlord in the hiding. Very weak people.

[General Duke]

Its not a matter of weakness. The Kenyan agreement was transitional, thus the issue is not the 4.5 formula, but why the need for 550MP’s.

 

If the international community which did not support the 275MP’s of the previous regime how will they support 550MP’s. It makes little sense whatsoever, and why rush the process so much that you have not spoken to the armed wings who are now controlling vast areas?

 

Sharif Ahmed will be President, but he has dug a deep hole, he needed a small parliament maybe about 100 with a small cabinet and overtures to his old allies.

 

Now he has a bloated regime, with little support from an international community that has little appetite and money.

[RedSea]

"laf cad ayey toobin ku hayaan" somali proverb.