What’s next for Somaliland and SSC region?

[maakhiri1]

27 minutes ago, Game changer said:

Once we unite our tol under  new leadership ,  study the reasons we failed ,  and set new goals.  We will lead the  the revenge war.    Buurmadaw iyo islaan madaw toona  isma hor taagi karaan wixii isq  isku raaco. Muhiimadu waa in hadaf Ka dagaalku noo cadyahay.  Oo aan caadifadi na qaadin .  Horta maakhiri reer kiisa aakhiranu u dirayna mar ay ahaataba.   Dhirbaaxada 1aad  yagaanu Ku dhufanayna.   Hadhawba yey odhan waa nala gaaday.

Has he become your tol now, after you suck his region dry? Refuse development? Kill his people with impunity? What happened to that officer who was assassinated in Loow Ya Cado? Did he get justice?

Have seen you guys resorting to D1r, Ur Samaale now

 

[Arafaat]

On 8/30/2023 at 6:34 AM, Duufaan said:

They may attack some area with small unit of SSC forces and hope capturing some trucks to present as a victory. Some type of SNM style of fighting to attack one village and  go back home.  I do not see anything else the defeated army capable of doing. They did not fight last week and their moral is very low.

This would be quite petty though, to stage a small attack in order to present as victory for social media crowds. You’re saying SL wouldn’t dare to go all the way to LA? 

 

[Arafaat]

On 8/30/2023 at 5:21 AM, Che -Guevara said:

Sland politicians are in a particularly difficult position politically. They have no one to blame but themselves. Having said that, the Somali public is emotional and these emotions can be muted by a good leader.

The biggest question now is does Muse Biixi wants to use this event as a means to stay in power at the expense of everyone or does he do the honorable thing and resign?

Galbeedi's suggestion of handing the reigns of Zaylici is one way.

 

Think he will try to stay in power even though LA defeat is a big shock and everyone is waiting for some sort of an explanation of what went wrong, and so far no explanation has been given on how things  occurred on the SL side, in terms of command, communication and control there are legitimate public questions that have been unanswered. 

[Game changer]

3 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:

Has he become your tol now, after you suck his region dry? Refuse development? Kill his people with impunity? What happened to that officer who was assassinated in Loow Ya Cado? Did he get justice?

Have seen you guys resorting to D1r, Ur Samaale now

 

Waar anaga  iyo GX baan sheegaya markaanu arimaha yaga isku duba ridano.   Meel kalaad isku qaaday.  Kkkkk     aad haysugu dhex yaaci waad khalkhashee.   

[Arafaat]

8 hours ago, Game changer said:

Once we unite our tol under  new leadership ,  study the reasons we failed ,  and set new goals.  We will lead the  the revenge war.    Buurmadaw iyo islaan madaw toona  isma hor taagi karaan wixii isq  isku raaco. Muhiimadu waa in hadaf Ka dagaalku noo cadyahay.  Oo aan caadifadi na qaadin .  Horta maakhiri reer kiisa aakhiranu u dirayna mar ay ahaataba.   Dhirbaaxada 1aad  yagaanu Ku dhufanayna.   Hadhawba yey odhan waa nala gaaday.

A war needs to have a political purpose and goal, but a military war for purely ‘revenge’ purposes showcases ethnic or clan based revanchism, and that SL is giving up claim on those regions and its claimed colonial borders. The current ‘popular’ sentiment in the streets should not be the guiding the thinking and decision making. 

[Illyria]

On 8/29/2023 at 8:58 PM, Arafaat said:

More and more dark clouds seem to be gathering in the eastern region of Somaliland, and the drum beats of war can be heard from afar. 

And one wonders what’s next for Somaliland and SSC regions? Are we looking at a continuing and vicious cycle of war and suffering, a new catastrophe in the making, with more bloodshed, thousands of deaths instead of hundreds, thousands of wounded and paralysed soldiers, thousands of weeping mothers, thousands of mourning families. 

Are we looking at a repeat or perhaps sequel of the civil war of three decades ago, another path to self destruction, with hundreds of thousands of displaced and refugees, generations of children growing up in refugee and IDP camps, ghost towns, and self created famines?

Allah forbid, is this the new pathway for Somaliland and SSC, or is another discourse possible? Have we exhausted all other options? Where is the cease fire, where are the Peace Ergo’s, mediators, committees, and third party delegations, where are the traditional elders, where are the leaders, the mediators , where are the sound minds and rational heads? Have they all been lost to the waves and motions of inciting and emotionally infectious social media, Facebook and YouTube accounts, clips and comments. Have they all been infected, have they all become terminal? 

Where are the intellectuals, the thinkers, the writers, the poets, that made us reflect, think, analyse and that made us think rationally before we speak, before decide, before we choose and before we act?

 Let us think and consider alternatives before we act.

So long as you consider SSC as Eastern SL, then you are still squatting at square one. As neighbours, we could discuss what is next for the region and its people, once you have accepted the reality, and tampered your tone. Imagine if you started this conversation in Dec. 2022.

What is next steps for SL is entirely up to its people, and does not concern SSC.

[Game changer]

5 hours ago, Arafaat said:

A war needs to have a political purpose and goal, but a military war for purely ‘revenge’ purposes showcases ethnic or clan based revanchism, and that SL is giving up claim on those regions and its claimed colonial borders. The current ‘popular’ sentiment in the streets should not be the guiding the thinking and decision making. 

Dhulka British somaliland Weligiiba waa sheegan karna for political reasons. Laakiin realistically nimankaas hrti Waanu kala xadhig furanay.   Wax isagu kaayo hadhay ma jiraan, keliya waxa noo dhiman inaanu xoogaaga sanaag Nala degan is dhaafino oo aanay Ka sokayn yube iyo fiqifuliye. 

  Dagaalka noocana dawladu ma qaadi karto laakiin anaga qaadayna oo qabiila.  Markaanu karbaashno ,  dawladayada iyo ta puntland ba way Ku khasban yihiin Inay dagaalka soo galaan.   Sidaas baanu Hrti Kaga qaadi karna Dhul cusub.   

Waanu karna inaanu laascaanood dib u qabsano , laakiin faa,iido nooguma jirto , waa dagaal siyaasadeed oo aan dadkayaga dani ugu jirin.   Hadiiba aanu nimankaas la dagaalamayno  waa inaanu  Kula dagaalana meel aanu Ka qaadi karno permanently , oo ay Ka samri karaan.   

Ma aamininsani in tolkay Ku dagaalamo riyo  beena, waa inaanu Ku dagaalana wax rasmiya.  Oo realistically achievable ah .   

[Arafaat]

On 8/31/2023 at 6:33 PM, Illyria said:

So long as you consider SSC as Eastern SL, then you are still squatting at square one. As neighbours, we could discuss what is next for the region and its people, once you have accepted the reality, and tampered your tone. Imagine if you started this conversation in Dec. 2022.

What is next steps for SL is entirely up to its people, and does not concern SSC.

On your first point, SOL is not the only place where conversations take place, as I actually started this conversation with SL politicians back in 2012 during the first Taleex Conference, that I saw as a positive and welcome development for the ‘North’ (if you are okey with that term), that a unified Khaatuma platform and voice would be an opportunity to start a genuine dialogue between Somaliland and Khaatuma. And think that some in Siilanyo circles shared this sentiment back then, and back in 2016 I wrote and appealed to many different actors to support the talks with AUN Ali Khaliif Galeydh’s, and again in 2017/2018 for Somaliland to honour the agreement with Khaatuma and start its implementation, unfortunately without much success. 

Second point, irrelevant if it takes months, years, decades or even a century, there will come a time or period that those who live in close territorial proximity, have shared or inter-connected interest, will need to come together and agree on how to manage their commons. Wether this is SSC and Somaliland, Somaliland and Somalia, Puntland, Makhir or Galgaduud. Nobody is going anywhere,  the people will not move and neither will the land suddenly move, only thing what will change over time is people’s views, perceptions, attitudes, emotions and thus relations. So never say never. 

[Arafaat]

It’s been nearly two weeks since Somaliland’s defeat in Las Anod, even though many sensible voices have spoken out about the mistakes and atrocities SL has committed more recently and also over the years in the region, nevertheless the political leaders have been quite silent on what’s next, except for distracting the people with calls to support and wave the flag for the army and worrying signs they want to take revenge and prepare for a new attack. Which many even doubt if the army is even capable of, nevertheless would serve no purpose other then to attempt to mask the failed leadership and distract the people even further. 

I think on the short term there shouldn’t be any doubt on what SL ought to be doing to descalate, save people from more bloodshed, get back on the track of peace and above all save SL government and social contract from imploding. 

A. Admit publicly its mistakes, offer apologies to the people of Sool and call for peace. 

B. Call all people to refrain from escalations, incitement and animosity while reaffirming the brotherly relationships between and communities. 

 C. Send message of peace to Garaads and offer to come to Las Anod with an peace delegation of traditional leaders (Ergo) waving the white flag to Las Anod, to offer a hand of peace, negotiate over the damages committed, account for the casualties, terms for release of prisoners and guarantee peace and protection to all rural/urban civilians across all regions. I don’t think the Garaads will refuse to receive the peace delegation, but in case they do send an Ergo to Boqor Burhan with request to mediate. 

This is what I think specially SL traditional leaders ought to be doing as soon as possible, with or without Muse’s consent. Learning lessons of true leadership from allah ha u naxariisto Garaad’s Abdiqani’s example, when he in the 1990’s saved whole regions, communities from bloodshed and forged the reconciliation.  

Would this make sense? 

[Game changer]

Only the release of prisoners and and de-escalation of situation in Sool can be discussed at the moment.   We both need a break , to fight an other Day .  We have nothing to apologize and certainly   nothing to compensate each other .  

 

[Khadafi]

Somali politics is all about emtions to ensure that those who are in power stay in power!. Arafat, I assure that Muuse and his cohorts will do  what ever they can do to spread the message to defeat. Not that they like it, but it cements Muuses concept of unity. Sadly It seems, the more hatred the more legitamacy for him and less scrutiny and reckoning by the youth in Hargeysaa why are they being sent to deserts to fight  other somalis. We are the sane voices who should talk about the worst famine that nomads in Somaliland are enduring? The economic problems, inflation?  The monoply of the economy?.

 

Anyways, be it north or the south, its all about emotions!

[maakhiri1]

whether between AIDID/USC vs Siyad Bare last days, or AIDID vs Ali Mahdi,  AIDID vs USA, or Maxakiim vs Abdullahi Yusuf, or SSC vs BIIHI, and list goes on

The issue is the same, lack of conflict resolution, , and followed by many SOMALIS DEAD,  predictable!

I think we may be missing that compartment

 

[Arafaat]

12 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:

whether between AIDID/USC vs Siyad Bare last days, or AIDID vs Ali Mahdi,  AIDID vs USA, or Maxakiim vs Abdullahi Yusuf, or SSC vs BIIHI, and list goes on

The issue is the same, lack of conflict resolution, , and followed by many SOMALIS DEAD,  predictable!

I think we may be missing that compartment

 

Indeed, war’s and conflicts can only be ended through negotiated peace determining a new balance. But Somali conflicts cool down while they continue to simmer below the surface. Even if there isn’t active fighting it doesn’t mean the conflict has ended, there needs to be a formal conflict resolution and settlement, even if it was for the purpose to signal to people a reset and make them aware on the formal peace and give things a place.

I think this also historically how Somali’s use to settle conflicts eventually ending through a formal settlement and reset of issues and relations under a tree. Garta Geed ba lala tagaa. 
 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]