What’s next for Somaliland and SSC region?

[Arafaat]

More and more dark clouds seem to be gathering in the eastern region of Somaliland, and the drum beats of war can be heard from afar. 

And one wonders what’s next for Somaliland and SSC regions? Are we looking at a continuing and vicious cycle of war and suffering, a new catastrophe in the making, with more bloodshed, thousands of deaths instead of hundreds, thousands of wounded and paralysed soldiers, thousands of weeping mothers, thousands of mourning families. 

Are we looking at a repeat or perhaps sequel of the civil war of three decades ago, another path to self destruction, with hundreds of thousands of displaced and refugees, generations of children growing up in refugee and IDP camps, ghost towns, and self created famines?

Allah forbid, is this the new pathway for Somaliland and SSC, or is another discourse possible? Have we exhausted all other options? Where is the cease fire, where are the Peace Ergo’s, mediators, committees, and third party delegations, where are the traditional elders, where are the leaders, the mediators , where are the sound minds and rational heads? Have they all been lost to the waves and motions of inciting and emotionally infectious social media, Facebook and YouTube accounts, clips and comments. Have they all been infected, have they all become terminal? 

Where are the intellectuals, the thinkers, the writers, the poets, that made us reflect, think, analyse and that made us think rationally before we speak, before decide, before we choose and before we act?

 Let us think and consider alternatives before we act. 

 

[Che -Guevara]

It really depends on what a certain few men in Hargeisa decide to do. An all-out war is not sustainable for either side.  Garaads, the new SSC leadership, and their military wing have been clear. They have no intention to fight as long as Sland keeps their forces on their side of the tribal border. They want to coexist peacefully, for commerce to resume, and for the movement of people to start again.

Everybody understands this initial shock of defeat need to cool down. People will vent their anger but reality and acceptance will settle in.

Sland politicians are in a particularly difficult position politically. They have no one to blame but themselves. Having said that, the Somali public is emotional and these emotions can be muted by a good leader.

The biggest question now is does Muse Biixi wants to use this event as a means to stay in power at the expense of everyone or does he do the honorable thing and resign?

Galbeedi's suggestion of handing the reigns of Zaylici is one way.

 

[Duufaan]

The momentum is with united SSC. The front line is 100 km away from Laascaanood. People will come back to city and the live will come back normal.  Remember Somaliland did not come to Laascaanood themselves.

  In fact the two army have distance of between 5 km between Gumays and OOG. Somaliland has not any capacity to attack SSC right now, Even a small successful attack will help them to present something.  Somaliland and SNM do not have a tradition and experience of planning large scale attack. They will not take that risk with speed of SSC forces, they could be overrun again. They may attack some area with small unit of SSC forces and hope capturing some trucks to present as a victory. Some type of SNM style of fighting to attack one village and  go back home.  I do not see anything else the defeated army capable of doing. They did not fight last week and their moral is very low. They lost any advantage they had militarily. Before the last week defeat , you could see they were already exhausted, their formation and attacks were weak compared to the beginning of the war. Where SSC forces were gaining strength and experience. I am not expecting any large scale of attack from Somaliland army. These emotions will die and it will  be a frozen conflict with a define SSC victory.

[maakhiri1]

Either two things will happen

1. The ball is with SL, they think rational, think of what happened? what led to this? To comprehend  this  idea they sold themselves that Harti land  belongs to them is wrong, they realise this , and curve their own territory, and start to live peacefully with their neighbours.
2. The emotions take them over, the war drums, the clan emotions,  the crazy maniac leader Biihi leads them to more fighting,  and they continue to fight and both  continue to lose , but SL has more to lose. eventually peace will come, 

 

[Game changer]

First we will change the leadership  , and improve our unity , economy and military power.     Markaas Wixii Ka danbeeya cidaanu doono baanu Ku duulayna imika  laakiin dagaal Kuma jirno halays dejiyo.     Somaliland waa Dal Aanu dagaal Ku dhisnay , oo xiniinyahayaga Ku taagan .  Marwalba dagaal u joog baanu u Nahay.     Anagu ma haysano sharciyad caalamiya oo  qarankayaga  xaqiisa dhawrtay.   Waxaanu xoog , karti ama caqli Ku helno  uunbaa noo hantiya.    

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Duufaan]

2 hours ago, Arafaat said:

"More and more dark clouds seem to be gathering in the eastern region of Somaliland, and the drum beats of war can be heard from afar."

This term of "eastern region of Somaliland" is misleading. First it is north Somalia if you want to include SSC and Maakhir regions.  If you  do not want to be partial, do not use the terms and  language they use.

 Caynabo from Sool  is in fact the center if you look the map. Buuhoodle is closer Hargeysa or Wajaale than Garoowe where colonial powder is. Nothing east

 

20 minutes ago, Game changer said:

First we will change the leadership  , and improve our unity , economy and military power.     Markaas Wixii Ka danbeeya cidaanu doono baanu Ku duulayna imika  laakiin dagaal Kuma jirno halays dejiyo.     Somaliland waa Dal Aanu dagaal Ku dhisnay , oo xiniinyahayaga Ku taagan .  Marwalba dagaal u joog baanu u Nahay.     Anagu ma haysano sharciyad caalamiya oo  qarankayaga  xaqiisa dhawrtay.   Waxaanu xoog , karti ama caqli Ku helno  uunbaa noo hantiya.   

 

 Waan gartay, sidaasaan filyaa aniguna marka laga reebo inaad Biixi dhakhso ubadeli kartaan. Waxaanse kuusheegayaa waxa kaliya ee aan kuqancin karo Jamaahiirta waa inay nabad helaan, hadii kale waxaad haysato  oo dhan ama kuuhadhay bay rabaan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[maakhiri1]

The radical ideal of secessionist  lead by few, is as dangerous as the idea of shabaab, and if not eliminated, more Somalis will die.. All the people SNM killed since declared session, and now is as result of this unwise decision, This elephant in the room must be addressed.

I don't see any different between Shabab and secessionist

[Tallaabo]

5 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:

The radical ideal of secessionist  lead by few, is as dangerous as the idea of shabaab, and if not eliminated, more Somalis will die.. All the people SNM killed since declared session, and now is as result of this unwise decision, This elephant in the room must be addressed.

I don't see any different between Shabab and secessionist

Any idea how this issue could be addressed? 

[Tallaabo]

5 hours ago, Game changer said:

First we will change the leadership  , and improve our unity , economy and military power.     Markaas Wixii Ka danbeeya cidaanu doono baanu Ku duulayna imika  laakiin dagaal Kuma jirno halays dejiyo.     Somaliland waa Dal Aanu dagaal Ku dhisnay , oo xiniinyahayaga Ku taagan .  Marwalba dagaal u joog baanu u Nahay.     Anagu ma haysano sharciyad caalamiya oo  qarankayaga  xaqiisa dhawrtay.   Waxaanu xoog , karti ama caqli Ku helno  uunbaa noo hantiya.    

 

 

 

 

 

 

No one wants a war in the region. This craziness will hopefully go away when the crazy man in Hargeisa goes away. 

[Tillamook]

4 hours ago, Tallaabo said:

No one wants a war in the region. This craziness will hopefully go away when the crazy man in Hargeisa goes away. 

Muse and his ilk will never go away politically because the two opposition parties that are supposed to be a check on their bad and foolish policies have been co-opted into Biixi’s administration. 

For all intents and purposes; somaliland has three political parties that rule as one. Therefore, there will never be any new ideas to move the H@bros out of the mess they find themselves in at the moment.

[galbeedi]

6 hours ago, Tillamook said:

For all intents and purposes; somaliland has three political parties that rule as one.

That is what I said. Neither Faysal Waraabe nor Cirro would demand the resignation of Muuse bIixi. Not only that , Biixi had co-opted the whole population of Hargeisa and Burco. A friend of mine whose brother is in the local police told me that today in Hargeisa and Burco, everyone, young and old, men and women are all talking about and agreed to take revenge ( Waa in aynu soo aargoosanaa wax aan ahayn kama socdaan labadaa magaalo). 

[galbeedi]

Especially, the south Hargeisa boys are making the waves. The good news is Buurmadow led HJ will not join the fight this time around.

[maakhiri1]

1 hour ago, galbeedi said:

Especially, the south Hargeisa boys are making the waves. The good news is Buurmadow led HJ will not join the fight this time around.

I saw few of Burmadow sub clan among the prisoners, 

[maakhiri1]

15 hours ago, Tallaabo said:

Any idea how this issue could be addressed? 

To address the issue of secession or union, is not for the SSC people but it is for ALL Somali people to look at it

But generally it will be dealt  with similar   in other countries.

1. Incentives, addressing their grievance, more justice, fixing rest of Somalia,  attracting them to the union, Canada, Spain model
2. Letting them go, their enclave , very unlikely 
3. Force them to union, like Tamil Tigers, Kurds, this is also very unlikely now

 

[Game changer]

4 hours ago, galbeedi said:

Especially, the south Hargeisa boys are making the waves. The good news is Buurmadow led HJ will not join the fight this time around.

Once we unite our tol under  new leadership ,  study the reasons we failed ,  and set new goals.  We will lead the  the revenge war.    Buurmadaw iyo islaan madaw toona  isma hor taagi karaan wixii isq  isku raaco. Muhiimadu waa in hadaf Ka dagaalku noo cadyahay.  Oo aan caadifadi na qaadin .  Horta maakhiri reer kiisa aakhiranu u dirayna mar ay ahaataba.   Dhirbaaxada 1aad  yagaanu Ku dhufanayna.   Hadhawba yey odhan waa nala gaaday.