"No extension, election on Jan 8th, and honourable transfer of power" Said A/llahi Deni

[Illyria]

On 8/2/2023 at 11:05 PM, galbeedi said:

So, for C/laahi Dani to claim to hold everything within the next five moths is a ploy to mislead the public and put the opposition in emergency mood. The best option is due it slowly and do it right.

If they were able to organise Local District elections from Jan - May, you do not think they could manage the Parliamentary and Presidential from Jul - Dec?

On 8/2/2023 at 11:05 PM, galbeedi said:

Also, avoid the so called three qualifying parties which destroyed Somaliland and monopolized political parties.

There are no limitations as to the number of political parties, nor is there a  term expiration.

On 8/3/2023 at 1:02 AM, maakhiri1 said:

It is not perfect, There is no system better than democracy, in terms of instability, success, economic development, transfer of power, succession, human rights protections  etc

Tell us one other system,  in the last 100 years that produced the same level of stability. 

Markaa GEELJIRE ha ka hadlin waxaad garaneeyn!

Agreed, of all the systems of governance tried, and tested, thus far there has not been any system better than Democracy with the main reason being: it has an embedded self-adjusting mechanism, where if a leader abuses, debases, and/or sulls it, the next leader could redress, as has been observed in the US with Drumpf. That is not to say it is perfect.

On 8/3/2023 at 4:42 AM, Game changer said:

Democracy has too many varieties ,  this particular one we tested in somaliland.  Is a total disaster , it brings more problems than good.  I am completely against empowering the ordinary Somali  peaple.   The public  should have the rights to elect their MPs and councillors .  That's it ,  no ordinary faarax should be asked to choose  the president. 

It is actually the opposite, what you want is let the general public elect their representatives, and leaders in that if a rep., or a leader is found unwanting, it is no else's fault, but the public. The alternative, as is found in Islam, is allowing 'a3yan - technocrats and elites' lead, and govern.  Alternatively, China's system of governance might be desirable, a variant of democracy with a twist, where eight political parties compete, elect their representative to the Central Body, which in turn elects the Chairman of the Central Party, the CCP, who is the Leader, or President of the nation. This ushers in stability, coherence, and sustainability. Of course there are ills to consider.

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Arafaat]

Che, It seems Deni is continuing on a path fraught with danger and only 3 months left of his term and with the electoral issues and concerns regarding credibility raised earlier not being addressed. How do you think this will unfold?  

[Illyria]

He is bold, might be blinded by his own ability and popularity, and might be underestimating opposition forces congregating at Ligle in the outskirts of Garowe.

In the State Constitution, Article 48 section (6) provides:

- PEC determines Election date(s), however it must NOT be:
    a) Less than 2 months, or
    b) More than 4 months AFTER term expiration of the current Parliament, and Local district councils.

Sub-section (b) grants PEC till March to hold elections. Let us wait for PEC to release the election schedule and timelines.

-------------------------------------

Here is the opposition press release right after his speech.

 

Puntland Political Forum:
Press Release : Response to Speech by President Deni

Garowe, Puntland – October 13, 2023

The Puntland Political Forum stands committed to protecting the stability, unity and sovereignty of Puntland, as outlined in the 2012 Puntland Constitution – specifically Articles 2.1, 7.2, 12.1, and 40.1.t.

The Forum has repeatedly “express concerns about” outgoing President Saeed Abdullahi Deni’s tyrannical rule and unconstitutional attempts to extend his term, threatening Puntland’s governance.

The Forum denounces President Deni’s irresponsible proposed changes to Puntland’s social contract, which undermine unity and governance.

The Puntland Political Forum declares it does not recognize any amendments made to the Puntland Constitution, nor does it recognize the establishment of the Puntland Electoral Commission (PEC) which is inconsistent with the constitution and rules of the Puntland elections. Therefore, any work or decisions issued by the PEC are illegal.

The Forum declares that President Deni alone bears responsibility for violating the social contract, as stated in his speech tonight and will face those consequences.

The Forum calls on the international community and stakeholders not to support actions that undermine Puntland’s security and stability.

Finally, the Forum again calls on Puntland’s traditional leaders, scholars, politicians and intellectuals to consult urgently to prevent institutional collapse and a constitutional crisis.

Unity and rule of law remain the Forum’s guiding principles during this difficult period.

 

[maakhiri1]

Point of no return, it is one man one vote 

[maakhiri1]

Faroole and sons are extreme reckless danger to PL

[Arafaat]

 

17 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:

Faroole and sons are extreme reckless danger to PL

Garowe elites might played a role in the ignition of the simmering crisis, but think issue is bigger then personalities involved and very much a crisis of the social contract and political arrangements, of which Puntland is a limit test for other states in Somalia.

And Federal Government of Somalia better keep a close check on developments without choosing sides but maintaining a third party role, perhaps have someone in Garowe as observer and dedicate a team of the FGS Executive and Parliament to monitor things. As a blown-out crisis in Puntland could tear down the legitimacy of the federal government itself and spell out similar crisis in other regions, which could lead to both Mogadishu and regional capitals becoming engulfed in political elites infighting leading to collapse of the already fragile and weak Somali State. 

AS is only one of the factors in the equation preventing Somali state building, the other is political elites power competition and infighting for power without having a last resort for mediation and dispute solving. And the political crisis in Puntland may perhaps be the first ’constitutional crisis’ on state level, in which dispute is about the basic rules of the social contract (the constitution). 

[Qurac&qansax]

 

[Qurac&qansax]

On 10/15/2023 at 8:15 AM, Arafaat said:

And Federal Government of Somalia better keep a close check on developments without choosing sides but maintaining a third party role, perhaps have someone in Garowe as observer and dedicate a team of the FGS Executive and Parliament to monitor thing

Arafat, what happened to you. Do you think XSM the most qabiilayste president Somalia ever seen will do those or want to do or care Puntland, he thinks the more Puntland away the better for him because he can do whatever he want to do. XSM created issue with Deni because he knew after 2 years there will be Puntland election and Deni might not come back. Deni was the reason XSM was re-elected we all know that, he owed a lot to Deni or Puntland, instead, XSM refused the three reasonable things Deni asked in return for his support and they are

• financial support, Garacad to Goldogob road, (Garacad Port corridor ), which XSM promised in his first visit to puntland as he was given the honour to cut the reborn for Garacad port.
• Financial Support for Puntland election, 1q1c
• Puntland fare share in his government 

XSM is in dhuusamareeb as we speak, and gust what, there is tribal fighting between Mudug and Hobyo community, and the mudug tribes took federal government solders hostages that come with XSM. Last time these community fought each other was the last time XSM was president when he come to dhuusamareeb, is it coincident, no.

 

[Arafaat]

I am not saying HSM cares about Puntland, but that a crisis in Puntland is not in his benefit even though he might think that and could lead to a chain reaction in other federal states and could mean a crisis for federalism and thus for the federal government. 

[Illyria]

 

[Arafaat]

Ilyria, how do u see the role of SSC-Khaatumo representations and participation in Puntland’s elections? 

[Illyria]

2 hours ago, Arafaat said:

Ilyria, how do u see the role of SSC-Khaatumo representations and participation in Puntland’s elections? 

It is pending deliberation, and H@rti Issims scheduled to meet in Las Anod in the coming weeks shall determine. I hear loud voices including Sadiq Garaad, one of the most Sr MPs, that SSC's 17 MPs shall be represented as before, but will not participate in the forthcoming elections. Then, I also hear Deni & Karaash are brewing a crooked plan of their own, but I do not see their plan working if the opposition has a say. In a nutshell, to be determined.

[Arafaat]

I get it, decision making is under deliberations. And what do u think personally would be the best or ideal course of action for SSC-Khaatuma trajectory? 

[Illyria]

12 hours ago, Arafaat said:

I get it, decision making is under deliberations. And what do u think personally would be the best or ideal course of action for SSC-Khaatuma trajectory? 

For me, 'cos I am familiar with this historical timeline of the SSC project dating back to the original Khusuusi, and I have been on the project from the days of SSHdA in early 2000s, SSC in 2007 onwards, Khatumo later, and SSC-Khatumo now, I am rooting for a Federal Member State in its own right. Of course, there shall be challenges, and opportunities. At the grand Issims conference, I am expecting there shall be a set of recommendations where people of neighbouring regions incl. Nugaal, Mudug, and Sanaag (Maakhir) shall have representation in the SSC Administration whilst people of SSC shall have representation in PL.