Grand Conference for reer Awdal in Ottawa

[galbeedi]

I am familiar with the Siralanka port . After investing billions on infrastructure the government could not pay the debt and in exchange they took over the port to run 99 years or something. If the Chinese comes to Zaylac by way Ethiopia and build ports and major roads connecting to Ethiopia I would welcome it. In the meantime, if they even take over the port and run for our benefit I would welcome that too. If someone, like the case of Siralanka, someone builds electric grids, roads, airports and ports and in exchange takes over a port it could be a great exchange. from 1960 to 1990 Africa didn’t even know what infrastructure meant and thanks to Chinese and Turks and others they finally noticing the potential. Since the launch of BRI the Chinese GDP had doubled despite the billions spent.
 

If not the Ethiopian who else would built? The bloody UAE? No way. 
 

Anyway everything is academic discussion if don’t take over Awdal administration first. I know Awdal issue is more difficult than SSC. The SSC were a group of people who joined the Somaliland project reluctantly and they always expected to take their and either join their cousins or stay autonomous. Our issue is involving Djibouti, Somaliland and Ethiopia. It is a geopolitical matter that could affect the trade of the region and the ports of Djibouti and Berbera. 
 

Furthermore, we aren’t doing anything different than you guys did in recent history , especially the Puntlanders. So give us a break and see what we bring in the table after we take over of Awdal. I know the Hargeisa Habro whose ideology was based to hate Somalia and anything blue are talking about defending the homeland which a fake tears. If they really want to safe the nation and bring sanity to the issue, why not declare the fake secession dead and negotiate with the rest. Then we could all be  brothers and build our ports modelling Garacad or something. 
 

Another thing is that you guys , the rebels who destroyed our country have bragging for decades about your fake victory against the Somali state not régime because we know the difference between regime change and destruction of the state. You guys have been talking about Siyaad this and Siyaad that and couldn’t establish anything similar to the great Somali state which was weakened in late eighties. We have been watching while you used different kind of political muscle to gain the upper hand and using the unending quarrels . What is happening in Mogadishu is nothing but the extension of the USC anarchy takes different shapes, either as tribe, Maxakamado, Ciimaamad, Reer Galmudug and so on. The Habro had 30 years to build something and the meagre institutions that existed were built by Dahir Rayaale and when he left everything crumbled. 
 

Do guys think the decent Somalis will keep watching this dysfunction and clan excess? Awdal trying a different route is one of the reactions. 
 

Anyway, I am writing in small iPhone screen due to travel, but will discuss extensively about these issues soon.

[Che -Guevara]

Galbeedi,

No reasonable Somali would be opposed to the development of Awdal. Abiy explicitly and implicitly said they want to take ownership (not invest) of a Red Sea port. That's getting out of the frying pan into the fire.

When was this?

 

[Illyria]

On 10/18/2023 at 8:26 AM, galbeedi said:

I am familiar with the Siralanka port . After investing billions on infrastructure the government could not pay the debt and in exchange they took over the port to run 99 years or something. If the Chinese comes to Zaylac by way Ethiopia and build ports and major roads connecting to Ethiopia I would welcome it. In the meantime, if they even take over the port and run for our benefit I would welcome that too. If someone, like the case of Siralanka, someone builds electric grids, roads, airports and ports and in exchange takes over a port it could be a great exchange. from 1960 to 1990 Africa didn’t even know what infrastructure meant and thanks to Chinese and Turks and others they finally noticing the potential. Since the launch of BRI the Chinese GDP had doubled despite the billions spent.
 

If not the Ethiopian who else would built? The bloody UAE? No way. 
 

Anyway everything is academic discussion if don’t take over Awdal administration first. I know Awdal issue is more difficult than SSC. The SSC were a group of people who joined the Somaliland project reluctantly and they always expected to take their and either join their cousins or stay autonomous. Our issue is involving Djibouti, Somaliland and Ethiopia. It is a geopolitical matter that could affect the trade of the region and the ports of Djibouti and Berbera. 
 

Furthermore, we aren’t doing anything different than you guys did in recent history , especially the Puntlanders. So give us a break and see what we bring in the table after we take over of Awdal. I know the Hargeisa Habro whose ideology was based to hate Somalia and anything blue are talking about defending the homeland which a fake tears. If they really want to safe the nation and bring sanity to the issue, why not declare the fake secession dead and negotiate with the rest. Then we could all be  brothers and build our ports modelling Garacad or something. 
 

Another thing is that you guys , the rebels who destroyed our country have bragging for decades about your fake victory against the Somali state not régime because we know the difference between regime change and destruction of the state. You guys have been talking about Siyaad this and Siyaad that and couldn’t establish anything similar to the great Somali state which was weakened in late eighties. We have been watching while you used different kind of political muscle to gain the upper hand and using the unending quarrels . What is happening in Mogadishu is nothing but the extension of the USC anarchy takes different shapes, either as tribe, Maxakamado, Ciimaamad, Reer Galmudug and so on. The Habro had 30 years to build something and the meagre institutions that existed were built by Dahir Rayaale and when he left everything crumbled. 
 

Do guys think the decent Somalis will keep watching this dysfunction and clan excess? Awdal trying a different route is one of the reactions. 
 

Anyway, I am writing in small iPhone screen due to travel, but will discuss extensively about these issues soon.

You all right mate, you come across as if in a foul mood; we all want that which is best for us all. By you guys, I am assuming you mean MMA.

19 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

Galbeedi,

No reasonable Somali would be opposed to the development of Awdal. Abiy explicitly and implicitly said they want to take ownership (not invest) of a Red Sea port. That's getting out of the frying pan into the fire.

When was this?

 

What the hell are Somali traditional elders and women doing meeting with foreign heads of State, and political leaders?

[Arafaat]

On 10/18/2023 at 4:26 PM, galbeedi said:

I am familiar with the Siralanka port . After investing billions on infrastructure the government could not pay the debt and in exchange they took over the port to run 99 years or something. If the Chinese comes to Zaylac by way Ethiopia and build ports and major roads connecting to Ethiopia I would welcome it. In the meantime, if they even take over the port and run for our benefit I would welcome that too. If someone, like the case of Siralanka, someone builds electric grids, roads, airports and ports and in exchange takes over a port it could be a great exchange. from 1960 to 1990 Africa didn’t even know what infrastructure meant and thanks to Chinese and Turks and others they finally noticing the potential. Since the launch of BRI the Chinese GDP had doubled despite the billions spent.
 

If not the Ethiopian who else would built? The bloody UAE? No way. 
 

Anyway everything is academic discussion if don’t take over Awdal administration first. I know Awdal issue is more difficult than SSC. The SSC were a group of people who joined the Somaliland project reluctantly and they always expected to take their and either join their cousins or stay autonomous. Our issue is involving Djibouti, Somaliland and Ethiopia. It is a geopolitical matter that could affect the trade of the region and the ports of Djibouti and Berbera. 
 

Furthermore, we aren’t doing anything different than you guys did in recent history , especially the Puntlanders. So give us a break and see what we bring in the table after we take over of Awdal. I know the Hargeisa Habro whose ideology was based to hate Somalia and anything blue are talking about defending the homeland which a fake tears. If they really want to safe the nation and bring sanity to the issue, why not declare the fake secession dead and negotiate with the rest. Then we could all be  brothers and build our ports modelling Garacad or something. 
 

Another thing is that you guys , the rebels who destroyed our country have bragging for decades about your fake victory against the Somali state not régime because we know the difference between regime change and destruction of the state. You guys have been talking about Siyaad this and Siyaad that and couldn’t establish anything similar to the great Somali state which was weakened in late eighties. We have been watching while you used different kind of political muscle to gain the upper hand and using the unending quarrels . What is happening in Mogadishu is nothing but the extension of the USC anarchy takes different shapes, either as tribe, Maxakamado, Ciimaamad, Reer Galmudug and so on. The Habro had 30 years to build something and the meagre institutions that existed were built by Dahir Rayaale and when he left everything crumbled. 
 

Do guys think the decent Somalis will keep watching this dysfunction and clan excess? Awdal trying a different route is one of the reactions. 
 

Anyway, I am writing in small iPhone screen due to travel, but will discuss extensively about these issues soon.

Galbeedi,

I wasn’t intending to respond, but as you seem quite serieus and adamant on your initial assertion, and the incorrectness of your assumptions here, you have compelled to respond. 

A. The Zeila Ports main trade linkages were with Yemen which have come to halt since the war in Yemen, in which the country faced a maritime blockade that stopped all trade and boats movement between Zeila and Yemen. This blockade went even as far as opening fire on the boats from Zeila that dared to make the crossing, even Yemeni fisherman being targeted. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/17/world/middleeast/yemen-fishing-boats-saudi.html

Possible recommendation would be to start lobbying(via different channels like Hargeisa, Mogadishu, IGAD, etc) to lobby the Saudis to allow trade with Zeila and Yemen to re-open. It could have a good chance of succeeding, specially now in org  Saudi Arabia wanting the war to end and working on a peace initiative in Yemen, it’s more likely for them to accept resumption of maritime linkages specially to Zeila that poses little threat in suppling weapons of any kind.  

B. Somaliland wants to develop the Port as it’s good for its own tax revenues, and don’t assume that it has any sort of deal that prevents developing the Zeila sport. Just like Maydh Port has recently been constructed in SL, and Garacad in Puntland, and nothing would stop it or justify preventing Zeila to develop. The issue challenging the Port of Zeila more so then other Ports, is the development of the road that is quite costly as its going through very rough terrain (mountainous, swamps like and desert like, all the same time) increasing the cost of construction of the road for which already an assessment has been made by Somaliland. Now to make trade with Ethiopia possible, one would need to seek investments specially for the road as that would be in the hundreds of millions.

Possible action, develop small group of technical and project experts (e.g. like Bayle, ex Afdb) to develop a good business case and incl investment plan, and focus on getting support from Ethiopia/Somalia in AfDB to finance or alternatively Islamic Dev Bank. These kind of investments are demand driven, so don’t expect that initiative has to always come from the investor side. But keep in mind nobody will invest if the business case isn’t there, e.g. trade with Yemen, Fish production and trade, opportunities and willingness Ethiopian trade linkages, as example. 

C. If Ethiopia’s intention would be purely to access and lease a Port for commercial purposes, they could have taken the initiative to initiative such a process with Somaliland authorities that has also eagerly welcomed any Ethiopian interest. Next to Ethiopia having plenty of other options in the region to lease, and could even restart using Massawe if the intention is purely commercial. But it seems Abiy’s purpose isn’t only a commercial aim but also a military and political as well. Look at the swift respond from Asmara on the statement, as one has earlier indicated to wanting to become a regional Maritime and Navy power, not on leased ports but rather annexed stretches of coast. And it looks likely that one thinks an annexation would be without impunity, given the shifting international order and trend of ‘regional powers’ violating sovereignties of countries, e.g. Russia in Ukraine, China in South China Sea, India with Kashmir, Azerbaijan with Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkey in Syria, Gulf in Yemen, etc. 

Action; Don’t for a second entertain the idea of Awdal becoming part of Ethiopia or willingness to be annexed, as a way of seeking a position or leverage as the consequences could be fatal for the same community you are seeking positive development for. Just inquire with your Somali-Ethiopian cousins on the other side in Teferi Ber,  Dembel, Lafaciise and Shinile, what they think of Awdal to become co-emerged in Ethiopia, and while you at it also inquire with Prof.Saleebaan on the history of the communities rebellion against Ethiopia with the Horyaal rebels and the long way one has come since in thinking, and that you want a free and Democratic Awdal to join Ethiopia today. 

D. You mentioned Kismayo Port and foreign troops. But perhaps you are not aware but there are no Kenyan civilians in Kismayo intending to settle there, have brought their families to Somalia nor is the country known for intending population displacement. While on the contrary Borama and Hargeysa are already quit filled with Ethiopians who have settled there, so think of what this would mean for future demographical composition in Zeila and Awdal, if your intention of ‘joining’ Ethiopia as its newest ‘Kilinka’ state would materialize? Personally I am in no way against regional integration, divers urban areas, but I am sure you would cry foul when socio-cultural and demographic shifts take place in your native region. 

[maakhiri1]

Although I was a bit disappointed with what happened and that letter from Awdal movement, regarding Saylac

The goal is very very clear for Awdal, Free your land, and territory, and form a FREE state under a federal republic.

 

FREE AWDAL

 

[Che -Guevara]

8 hours ago, Illyria said:

 

What the hell are Somali traditional elders and women doing meeting with foreign heads of State, and political leaders?

That might be an old picture and Ethiopian leaders have in the past met Somali traditional elders, but was to reconcile communities.

 

[galbeedi]

One of the ladies is the wife of theUgaas and the other one is the sister of Abiy Ahmed. 

By the way Xaaji Ahmed Cali the father of Abiy is from H. Cafaan a prominent sub clan of Awdal. So it was a family reunion.

Maakhiri, 

As you said the first priority is to liberate Awdal every thing else is secondary 

[Arafaat]

37 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

One of the ladies is the wife of theUgaas and the other one is the sister of Abiy Ahmed. 

By the way Xaaji Ahmed Cali the father of Abiy is from H. Cafaan a prominent sub clan of Awdal. So it was a family reunion.

Maakhiri, 

As you said the first priority is to liberate Awdal every thing else is secondary 

You’re saying Abiy is from tolka? 

[Che -Guevara]

What's going on here?

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[galbeedi]

6 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

What's going on here?

it is happeining

 

 

[galbeedi]

H

[Che -Guevara]

 

5 hours ago, galbeedi said:

it is happeining

Ugaas Abdirisaaq Ugaas Rooble speaks! SSC paid a huge sacrifice to achieve its goals. How much is Awdal willing to pay or suffer?

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]