Grand Conference for reer Awdal in Ottawa

[galbeedi]

The plan is not clear, but Omar Geelle is worried what could happen if the project was disintegrated. On the other hand the two jeegaan want to preserve their businesses , trade deals and everything else and buy time. HJ accepted the possible narrative that if the war among the Habro continues from Gacan LIbaax, the next bullet could be fired within Hargeisa.. They are the richest clan now. Not only the business people like Dahabshiil and Indha deero, even the richest politicians in Hargeisa are Hersi Gaab and Ina Hashi.  The Sand Dwellers and some HY clans based in Hargeisa doesn't want any war within Hargeisa no matter what, but if the conflict continues it could take on the wrong turn. The killing of 10 RRU officers had shaken Biixi and the HJ groups. If the war heats up, the rebels could cut Burco from Hargeisa and Berbera from Hargeisa. HJ will be a by standers who could lose a lot.

You and I know that in Somaliland most of the import and trade monopolies are controlled by Jeegaan and those who will lose is them, so they decided to make a deal that the GX can't refuse. THey told them " Cidna idinlama tartamayso". I don't know how that could happen. To rule you have to win the election, that means Mohamed Kaahin and Kulmiye candidates have to stand down. It is complicated.

I could tell you that a well placed guy who is based in Halane told me last month that after Omar Geelle complicated the rapprochement of Abiy to make a deal between Biixi and Farmaajo, the Ethiopian premier changed course and agreed a transition plan with Waddani chairman Cirro. This information is 100% correct and Cirro was supposed to be the premier to manage the government while Farmaajo had agreed to be ceremonial. The TPLF war delayed the plan and Farmaajo was asked to add his rule two more years which was thawrted by HAG and Puntland leaders. After  Biixi found out the deal, he  made a move and rather than hold the presidential elections on time,  tried to weaken Waddani and hold party elections instead.

Since Djibouti intelligence and others are aware of this they are probably trying to move before a GX leadership takes over in December 2024.Furthermore, if the plan is to give power, why not prepare in 6 months and transfer power to the elected government. Omar Geelle is planning to do his power transfer to Mogadishu before things change by either bringing the wrong people to power or disintegrate. That deal in Mogadishu supplanted by the marriage of mob in Djibouti is still on. THe new Awdal governor who is agitating against us is brought by Geelle himself. One other thing I have learned in Somali political tradition is clans do not open the door for others for fear of losing influence, unless you are insignificant enitity.

That is what I heard. Now Mr. Carafaat, tell us the plan to transfer power to GX.

I know lately the GX is flexing their muscle and calling to defend the project. Even their tunes in social media has changed, but for us Awdal State movement nothing has changed and we want out of this fake project.

[Arafaat]

I am not up to date on the under currents of the politics can cant really speak on, for that I have to take your insights in to this. However, I know that the political deal is shaky, with so far no concrete legal pathways to support elections as agreed in this political deal. And as you also stated, the current elites might put own individual ambitions above any compromise or common interest if that would mean transferring power. 

Additional factor complicating things is that it’s not all about politics, but above all about economic interest and we have not seen any indication that one is ready to address the discourse, inequalities that have fueled the bleak economic future outlook and thus much of the tension, polarization and discontent. 

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

How did it go so wrong in 9 months? I remember Galbeedi saying Sool will be a frozen conflict.

There are several apparent things now:

GX lacks sophisticated leaders. This is unfortunate considering this community has produced so many in the past. 

Jeegaanta will take the path that will help keep their ill-gotten riches as stated by Galbeedi.

Geelle and HSM bet on the wrong horse and are recalibrating their moves. Puntland has became a persistent annoyance that won't roll over.

Sool surprised everyone, even military leadership to be honest. The attack on Maraaga and Goocajade was supposed to last weeks and produce many casualties on either side. Despite all the faano after SL's defeat, the commanders expected a long battle.

Reer Awdal were astonished at the illusion of military might and lack of political competency in Somaliland. They now have decided to determine their own future within Somalia.

Muse is amassing militias in Oog, but mistrust is growing considering the persistent conflict in Ceelweyn and the new conflict in Cali Saahid.

The Garaads have also kept their word. They have no desire to march into another's clan territory. They are settling for something akin to Galkacayo where the agreement between Aidid and Abdullahi held for decades, not ideal but it ensured peace apart some skirmishes every now and then.

[Arafaat]

18 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

How did it go so wrong in 9 months? 

What we have been seeing in the last months are rather the effects, the causation started much earlier with the assumptions, calculations and actions that have shaped and driven SL governments directions over the last years which have come to a blown not caused but rather ignited by the SSC uprising. 

And the main factor in this causality I would say is the following wrong assumption one has made;

The social contract on which Somaliland governments authority and stability is outdated, as the government is now all powerfully and can control the country, and does not need to strive towards inclusion and equity between the clans. And also along this line of thinking one assumed that SSC community can’t go nowhere as they don’t want to join Puntland and can’t become a federal state, and with military force you can keep control of the region, and thus there is no need to give special consideration and enter in to a political agreement with the community. Remember on the 8th January 2018 when Somaliland forces took control of Tukaraq and thereby reaching the ‘border’, well this was just a month after this government took office, and this further reinforced that military force was sufficient to control region and there is no need for a genuine political agreement with the community. 

So this thinking started much earlier and were expressed in all actions of the regime, while the patience expressed by the people and different communities, was not taken at face value but rather seen as a reinforcement of the own assumptions, thinking, further confirming the above mentioned narratives. And it’s also this self constructed false belief of the own power that led to further elite capture in the economy, nepotism, oligopolisation and thus concentration of wealth in the hands of few. Further leading to loss of trust, economic stagnation and political/communal polarisation, of which we seeing now the full extends. 

 

[Arafaat]

18 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

The Garaads have also kept their word. They have no desire to march into another's clan territory. They are settling for something akin to Galkacayo where the agreement between Aidid and Abdullahi held for decades, not ideal but it ensured peace apart some skirmishes every now and then.

So far the Garaads leadership have shown to act as a real authority, keeping their intentions and objections clear and consistent. We can’t say the same from the SL leadership, it’s still not clear where they stand and what their intentions and directions are. Not only with regards to SSC but the rest of the country. Those committing murders in Gacan Libaax, Ali Sahid and Elafweyn are enjoying impunity, while the on the other hand one swears revenge for Las Anod. It doesn’t add up. 

[galbeedi]

21 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

I remember Galbeedi saying Sool will be a frozen conflict.

I thought Biixi will relocate 30km from Laascannos and put his forces at Adhi Cadeeye. That intensive could have effected some of those leaning to stalemate or negotiations.

They were not in Tukaraq, Taleex, Boocame and between, yet they decided to bomb the city and siege the population. Actually, later I said they will be defeated sooner or later if they do not relocate.. Anyway, it was difficult to predict what took place in Maraaga and Goojacade.

Once Puntland put their muscle and efforts behind the liberation of Sool, things had changed quickly. While SL was sitting like a duck, SSC military leadership was maneuvering and consulting many different experts including modern commanders educated in Turkey and other old guard senior leaders. Furthermore, in Somaliland, the overall commander General Nuux Taani isn't up to the job. For the last twenty years he was chasing lightly armed clan militia and few technical from Puntland trying to assist SSC. Back in Somalia in late seventies , he used to be a cook. The name Nuux Baasto was thrown  first by late president C/laahi Yusuf. In early 2004, when they told him that  Nuux is the general in charge of SL army , he said, " Waar nikaasi ninkii qaybta 66aad joogayey ee baastada macaanaa ee Nuux miyaa" Modern armies need new leadership and new blood to face new challenges, yet they have this guy in charge for 25 years. How can a 70 years old former cook could face the experts that gathered in Laascaanood.

Furthermore, like closed communist society there are no real debate  within Somaliland. Even if the king had no clothes who could say it loudly. I saw a drone made out of wood and carboard being paraded in Hargeisa like a real drone, or Suldaans wearing military gear, just like the talk of Xuduudaan tagaynaa by Faysal Waraabe who got rich of talking from his rear.

I did talk to a friend this morning from Borama and he said there is deception among the Habro leadership and everyone's plans are in the open including the political war in Ceel Af Weyn which is created by Kulmiye to create hostility among the eastern clans HY/HJ. He told me that  there is a talk in Hargeisa to crown Cali Warancade as the chairman of Kulmiye and their candidate to face C/rahman Cirro. The Jeegaan want a boot licker like Waracade who was the last intelligence supervisor of the Villa Somalia the night before Macalinkii Kacaanka, the late Jaale siyaad left. Also, in the old days he  used to test tea and food for former Somali intelligence director and interior minister Saleebaan Daffle. Either way the delusion continues. 

THere is no debate to fight the rampant inflation  and economic hardship that is gripping Somaliland. The exchange for the paper money is 11,000 for one single dollar.

Despite this I do believe the key oligarch that must be removed for the sake of the people of the north and Somalis in general to have genuine peace is to remove that  fat and old guard Omar Geelle. Most of pro French despots in west and central Africa are dead or overthrown, and it is high time to remove this despot from the scene.

Furthermore, Puntland should be there as a focal defender of the future and the rule of law ( Constitution) to fend off these gathering hyenas who don't no one except their own political survival.  

 

 

 

[Arafaat]

8 hours ago, galbeedi said:

Furthermore, Puntland should be there as a focal defender of the future and the rule of law ( Constitution) to fend off these gathering hyenas who don't no one except their own political survival.  

 

 

 

You will need to explain that one, Puntland as defender of the rule of law.  

[Arafaat]

https://www.facebook.com/GuuleedCunnaabi/videos/668975338517484/?app=fbl
 

Galbeedi, Whats going on with the Professor? 

[galbeedi]

Carafaat,

The good proff. is eating a crow. He has been lecturing us since 2022 to get onboard and form a political party. He didn't realize he was being played by Muuse Biixi to sideline the opposition. 

When Biixi went to Washington he faced the typical talk of one clan masquerading as a national while controlling the three political parties. Proff. Samatar and Bashiir Goth arranged a meeting between Biixi and the Awdal elite from USA in Washington.

While putting down the Ged...rsi elite he said, " sidoodii ayuun bay cabasho bilaabeen, markaass ayuu Muuse yidhu, " Waar Xisbiyadii waa la furayaaye kaalaye oo siyaasada ka qeyb gala, Awdalna waa meesha Soomali odhani u soo nolol doonanaysee".

So, as a naïve or an astray dog looking for shelter he jumped up and formed his party. He told us in a conference call that if you guys want to challenge the system and get the power support my party and will run for the next presidency.

Some of us including the current leader of Awdal State Movement, Dr. Cali Bahar told not to waste his time about the Habro games, but didn't listen.

Now without consulting to him the Habro made a deal and said this is the time for GX to preserve the wealth of East Burco and the trade routes for HA. Waagii baa ku baryay. Even if his party joins the chosen three he has to wait until 2030 to run for president. . The Jeegaan are  trying to bail out and make a deal , the long prediction proff. Samatar had made long ago about Somaliland clans raising to Mogadishu and each one seeking his own deal.

Waa Halkii Allah ha u naxariistee Khaliif Sheikh Mohamuud, " Markaanu ka soo degno malkada Haeowo, Allahayow Waxaanu maaganahay yaa maslixi Doona". I want the good Proff. Samatar to call our cause to be just and hit the airwaves. 

Waxaan sugnaaba waa isagoo leh, " Maxaan sheegayey ayaa dhacay goboladii galbeedku way baxayaan mar haddii hawshii qabaa'il ku noqotay".

I sorry our GX friends will be holding empty bags.

 

 

 

 

[galbeedi]

Carafaat on the issue Puntland defending the constitution, I will get back to you soon. I want to make a well founded argument. stay tuned/

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Arafaat]

20 hours ago, galbeedi said:

Carafaat,

The good proff. is eating a crow. He has been lecturing us since 2022 to get onboard and form a political party. He didn't realize he was being played by Muuse Biixi to sideline the opposition. 

When Biixi went to Washington he faced the typical talk of one clan masquerading as a national while controlling the three political parties. Proff. Samatar and Bashiir Goth arranged a meeting between Biixi and the Awdal elite from USA in Washington.

While putting down the Ged...rsi elite he said, " sidoodii ayuun bay cabasho bilaabeen, markaass ayuu Muuse yidhu, " Waar Xisbiyadii waa la furayaaye kaalaye oo siyaasada ka qeyb gala, Awdalna waa meesha Soomali odhani u soo nolol doonanaysee".

So, as a naïve or an astray dog looking for shelter he jumped up and formed his party. He told us in a conference call that if you guys want to challenge the system and get the power support my party and will run for the next presidency.

Some of us including the current leader of Awdal State Movement, Dr. Cali Bahar told not to waste his time about the Habro games, but didn't listen.

Now without consulting to him the Habro made a deal and said this is the time for GX to preserve the wealth of East Burco and the trade routes for HA. Waagii baa ku baryay. Even if his party joins the chosen three he has to wait until 2030 to run for president. . The Jeegaan are  trying to bail out and make a deal , the long prediction proff. Samatar had made long ago about Somaliland clans raising to Mogadishu and each one seeking his own deal.

Waa Halkii Allah ha u naxariistee Khaliif Sheikh Mohamuud, " Markaanu ka soo degno malkada Haeowo, Allahayow Waxaanu maaganahay yaa maslixi Doona". I want the good Proff. Samatar to call our cause to be just and hit the airwaves. 

Waxaan sugnaaba waa isagoo leh, " Maxaan sheegayey ayaa dhacay goboladii galbeedku way baxayaan mar haddii hawshii qabaa'il ku noqotay".

I sorry our GX friends will be holding empty bags.

 

 

 

 

I understand he has been led on, thinking that he could have his party elected and within a year run for President. But this was not according to the original timetable where first the Presidential would take place and then the political parties, which would have meant he would have anyway waited years to get to the Presidency and now that both elections are taking place simultaneously one is back to that same  schedule with a delay. So his objections at this stage are not even legally or politically justifiable. He should have complained last year when the elections for the Presidency were being extended without any justification, and messing up the complete political machine incl delaying the politics parties for another two years.

Furthermore, it seems he is so focussed on the Presidency that he is forgetting that his party has an actual good chance of getting elected to become part of the party system. He came this far, and thus should focus on getting his party elected and pushing Kulmiye and UCID out of the system who both fear his party. But it seems he is being incited or letting himself to be detracted, in order for him to throw away the baby with the bathwater. Not very smart 

[galbeedi]

4 hours ago, Arafaat said:

He should have complained last year when the elections for the Presidency were being extended without any justification, and messing up the complete political machine incl delaying the politics parties for another two years.

I agree. Just one month after  the municipal and parliamentary elections were  concluded,  Muuse Biixi pulled unexpected one from his rear end and said political parties will expire next year December 2022. The opposition had planned to contest the election in November 2022 before the so called expire date. 

Yet, I understand why Proff. Samater is angry. He was led to believe that since the courts, the Guurti, and election commission all agreed that the parties will contest first and then the presidency. He spent his energy, money and efforts and now all that was in a vain. Everything is overruled by a single clan protecting its interest.

Furthermore, he knows that since SSC has left the stage, the Habro would focus on reforming the system and bring the other clan in the west to the power table and address the economic issues mostly the blocked ports and denying of development money, but they decided to to focus on themselves like nothing had happened. Also, his maternal cousins, the corrupt HA had privately promised him to help him elected.

Anyway, it is end of the journey.

One more thing. Early this morning , we got a message from Djibouti about the where abouts of Ina Biixi.  Days ago he left Hargeisa with a an NGO car went to Bebera and boarded a small plane. In Djibouti, he met HSM and OMar Geelle. THe news is Geelle, American defense secretary Lloyd Austin had signed to give the Americans a base in Bebera. This true report said that Mr. Austin never met Biixi, but singned with HSM, and later president HSM asked Biixi to sign a separate later.

It is strange a Somali president needs a Don or head of the mafia to sign contracts with a foreign leader. THere is no governments or cabinet anymore. Biixi was hiding this from the foreign minister of the enclave Mr. Kayd. Same thing goes with HSM , no one from the cabinet was there.

 

[maakhiri1]

Feel sorry for Professor ka, I honestly believe he believed this SL thing, he thought he had a chance, he is a very smart man, but somehow fooled by secessionists. it was never a fair game.

 

[Arafaat]

On 9/29/2023 at 11:16 AM, maakhiri1 said:

Feel sorry for Professor ka, I honestly believe he believed this SL thing, he thought he had a chance, he is a very smart man, but somehow fooled by secessionists. it was never a fair game.

 

He still has a chance, but needs to put his tower high ego aside that is blocking him from seeing potential political discourse.

The pathway to the Presidency is no easy pathway, and specially in Somaliland it’s not a matter of being crowned by a kingmaker or special interest group as the Professor initially thought. He needs to build coalitions and make deals, and take risks. It’s not the same as Mogadishu where you can fly in from the States and be crowned a day later because you rubbed the right kingmakers, no he needs to work for it and let go of the idea of seeking approval and applauses for that will break him, as he has seen by now.