Next Ethiopian War: Eritrea/Amhara vs Tigray/Abiy

[Che -Guevara]

51 minutes ago, Illyria said:

What is your initial reaction when you read some news like this?

He would like to see the details first

[Che -Guevara]

6 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

First time i see che write more then one sentence hmm interesting  good assessment  and analysis  there and i agree with you. But  i do not believe Amhara their majority leaders and people have given up on Ethiopia or greater Ethiopia.

So where does Abtigis fit in all of this..

 

 

Abtigiis and alike are mid-level managers who are at the mercy of the executive. Only men with principles and willingness to act can tame Abiy.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

3 hours ago, Illyria said:

What is your initial reaction when you read some news like this?

absolutly outrages bad , i have been calling  out the gallas and their expansion agenda for years on here ,  Che  knows this also. the Somali region must be protected  by all costs from these galla invaders

 

[Arafaat]

12 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

 

The best possible outcome is genuine reconciliation and agreement among all warring groups. This will be a difficult task that would require serious men who are sincere in their efforts. With enough pressure from the West and the realization on the elites' part, that they will lose everything might prompt a change in their behavior. This is the most hopeful outcome.

Abiy is the biggest obstacle. Unfortunately, the West believes there is no clear alternative leader that can replace him. The Emirate money and Turkish/Chinese are what keep in power militarily.

Other groups that will hinder any peace process include:

1. Oromo PP, this is the group that surrounds Abiy. Their support for him is strong. This is due to the fact they are now occupying the admin centers of the government and military.  They are amazingly corrupt and are robbing the country blind.

2. OLA. Abiy tried to coopt OLA with the promises of positions within the government. They flatly declined his offer. Their only interest is free Oromia. They are most active in Western Oromia and Borana regions. They ran most of the rural areas and moved as they wished. Abiy tried to suppress with regional forces, ENDF, and drones, but it is winning OLA more fans.

3. Amhara: The Amhara are most aggrieved. They sincerely believe Abiy wouldn't have defeated TPLF without their sacrifice. Their grievances are not only with Abiy. They believe they have unfairly been blamed for everything that went wrong in Ethiopia since the days of Melenik, and as such, every new admin would hit them hard. The Amhara can be divided into three groups, the first group wants to oust Abiy and revive the centralized Ethiopia where they ran everything. The second group has given up on Ethiopia. They come to believe a separate homeland for Amhara is a must.  This group supports the Fano movement. The third group is within PP. They once believed they could change the government within, but that hope has faded and many are leaving PP, and with their departure, PP has essentially an Oromo party.

4. Ethiopian army: The institution is not what used to be. It is highly dependent on conscripts and it is beginning to look an Oromo party. Most generals and colonels are Oromo. It is no longer a reflection of Ethiopia. More and more soldiers are defecting every day.

5. Tigray; The peace process between Abiy and TPLF has not worked out well for Tigray. From TPLF's perspective, their lands are still in the enemy's hands. Aid is barely coming into Tigray. They appealed to the AU to help in implementing the Pretoria Agreement.  TPLF still has two hundred thousand armed forces. Abiy wants them to join the war, but so far, they have wisely decided not.

6. Eritrea: Afwerki feels crossed. He believed in a centralized Ethiopia with no ethnic borders, but he made the mistake of trusting an Ethiopian leader. He was blinded by his hatred for TPLF. I believe he is no longer vested in one Ethiopia whose leaders he can manage.

There are three possible ends. The first and most difficult is what I mentioned above, true peace among all parties with acceptable political settlement. The second is an apocalyptic end to this ailing empire, a war to end all wars where new countries will be born.

The third is a new alliance among Highlanders and Eritrea that can overwhelm Abiy and exile or kill him. The Highlanders and Eritrea are politically savvy enough to put their differences aside in pursuit of a bigger goal. 

I don’t think the west can sufficiently understand this sort of complexity and fluidity in order to play a constructive role. So option nr 1 seems highly unlikely to materialise, which leaves us option 2 or 3, a failed Ethiopia or an Ethiopia reconquered by highland Xabashas. But I don’t see how highlanders would reassert their influence in the current Addis overrun by Oromo’s, surrounded by Oromo’s, and with an Oromo military elites in power. 

[Illyria]

6 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

absolutly outrages bad , i have been calling  out the gallas and their expansion agenda for years on here ,  Che  knows this also. the Somali region must be protected  by all costs from these galla invaders

So, you are a bone fide Somali after all. Well done.

[Che -Guevara]

⁸

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Illyria]

With its main three States (Tigray, Amhara, and Oromo (less extent) ) on fire, and roadblocks popping up outside of Addis, how does Abiy plan to wriggle out of this inferno? I can not wait for the whole bloody thing to blow up in his spotty face.

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

1 hour ago, Illyria said:

With its main three States (Tigray, Amhara, and Oromo (less extent) ) on fire, and roadblocks popping up outside of Addis, how does Abiy plan to wriggle out of this inferno? I can not wait for the whole bloody thing to blow up in his spotty face.

This reminds pre-civil war Xamar where the final days were around the corner.

Even if Ethiopians settle their differences, a serious damage has already been done to their sense of identity. Many people no longer see themselves as Ethiopians.

[maakhiri1]

2 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

This reminds pre-civil war Xamar where the final days were around the corner.

Even if Ethiopians settle their differences, a serious damage has already been done to their sense of identity. Many people no longer see themselves as Ethiopians.

many areas, still it is businesses as usual, and hardly feel what is going on 

Somali Galbeed, seems to be sleeping

[Che -Guevara]

10 minutes ago, maakhiri1 said:

many areas, still it is businesses as usual, and hardly feel what is going on 

Somali Galbeed, seems to be sleeping

Somaligalbeed may actually fare better. They only share border with Afars who are not well-armed and Oromos who will literally be fighting almost everyone else.

[maakhiri1]

what happens Djibouti?, when Ethiopia collapses.

This is where 90% of their revenue comes from

[Che -Guevara]

4 minutes ago, maakhiri1 said:

what happens Djibouti?, when Ethiopia collapses.

This is where 90% of their revenue comes from

It will still be the logical place to get goods from Djibouti ports until Amharas shift to Asseb and the Somaligalbeed shift to Berbera and Garacad. Djibouti needs to think about diversifying their economy. Unfortunately, the country is run like family business.