Next Ethiopian War: Eritrea/Amhara vs Tigray/Abiy

[Che -Guevara]

1 hour ago, Illyria said:

This is not looking good,  nor is it going to end well for Somali Galbeed.

 

Everything will end badly for Somalis as long as they don't have a unified political objective.

[Illyria]

42 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

Everything will end badly for Somalis as long as they don't have a unified political objective.

Unfortunately, they do not, and could potentially be in far worse position than other ethnic groups.

[Game changer]

7 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

It seems you know so much about me without knowing me.

You have a strong feeling about Ethiopia. I care about Ethiopia in so far how it affects Somalis who they have treated horribly. If you admire them so much, by all means, hug them and cuddle them. I personally have seen what they have done to Somalis,  the massacres, the rapes, and the torture.

You can side with Oromo or Amhara, but I assure you both will cut your head given the chance. 

Who is "us" you keep on referring to?

I never hated Ethiopia. I lived that country for years ,   I see no difference between Somalis and Ethiopians.  They are all poor peaple  effected by droughts , war and famine.  We all want stability and development . 

[Arafaat]

13 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

Everything will end badly for Somalis as long as they don't have a unified political objective.

O folks unity and directions is crucial in this, not sure how dynamics have changed since Abiy and Cagjar came to power. 

Dhaanto cusub loo baahanyahay iyo Abwaank Abtigiis inu laxanka no saaro. 

 

[Che -Guevara]

2 hours ago, Arafaat said:

O folks unity and directions is crucial in this, not sure how dynamics have changed since Abiy and Cagjar came to power. 

Dhaanto cusub loo baahanyahay iyo Abwaank Abtigiis inu laxanka no saaro. 

 

The difference is Cagjar is Addis's man. He can be dismissed. The only thing that might work for Somalis is Abiy's desperation. Amharas are getting trained and supported by Eritreans. They have border with Sudan where weapons can flow in.

The crop of the cream of Ethiopia’s fighting force perished in the Tigray war.

Ethiopia’s experienced generals are mostly Amhara and Tigray.

[Che -Guevara]

7 hours ago, Game changer said:

I never hated Ethiopia. I lived that country for years ,   I see no difference between Somalis and Ethiopians.  They are all poor peaple  effected by droughts , war and famine.  We all want stability and development . 

I don't hate Ethiopia let alone the poor guy on the street  What I do dislike is the Ethiopian State that always is hostile to Somalis and committed unspeakable crimes.

I am glad your experience was good but not every Somali had the same experience.

Not even Tigray, Oromo and other nations they were oppressed one time or another.

 

[Che -Guevara]

Quote

#Ethiopia: #Amhara region emergency command post chief admits armed groups “took control” of some zones and districts, “released criminals from prison”

 

[Che -Guevara]

Ethiopia's government says it lost control of some areas in the Amhara region to militia fighters - ABC News

ABCNEWS.GO.COM

---

Ethiopia’s federal government says it has lost control of some districts and towns to militia fighters in the country’s Amhara region

 

[Che -Guevara]

Amazing..Amhara supporting a federated Ethiopia.

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Arafaat]

On 8/7/2023 at 7:33 PM, Che -Guevara said:

The difference is Cagjar is Addis's man. He can be dismissed. The only thing that might work for Somalis is Abiy's desperation. Amharas are getting trained and supported by Eritreans. They have border with Sudan where weapons can flow in.

The crop of the cream of Ethiopia’s fighting force perished in the Tigray war.

Ethiopia’s experienced generals are mostly Amhara and Tigray.

Abiy will become desperate very soon if not already feeling the heat. And he would need a Somali partner, as they would offer reliable support and are in no way a treat to him or can challenge the federal state, or in a position to align themselves with Amhara and Tigray, as perhaps Oromo, Afar and others can. 

And when that time comes, Somali leadership need to have a clear and strategic agenda they can demand in return, and be transparant about it. It will be a small price to pay for stable and reliable support from Kilinka as turmoil and turbulent times might engulf the Federal state leadership.  

The question is, how would such an agenda look like? 

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

6 minutes ago, Arafaat said:

 

The question is, how would such an agenda look like? 

 

There needs to be social, military, and political cohesion. That can happen if Cagjar and his administration reconcile Somali clans under the proverbial geed hoostiis. More than anything else, he would need the support of every clan elder. Such support can be gotten through a genuine reconciliation as there are many clans with many grievances.

He would then need to invite Somali political parties including ONLF. The clan elders, the parties, and the administration can formulate an agenda and way forward with the understanding it will be only through political and military unity that can protect their interests.

They should be clear about what they want and how they want to get it. The administration can recruit and train Liyu police from all clans, and mobilize the young and diaspora. And they should keep in mind Abiy is not a reliable partner.

I personally think peace in Ethiopia can't be achieved as long as Abiy is in power and as long as Ethiopia's foundational problems of Ethiopia are fixed.

The very nature of Ethiopia's governance is based on oppression. If Somalis come to power by miracle, they will probably create any Derg, TPLF, and alike.

Ethiopia needs a true federation if it is to be one country.

[Arafaat]

2 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

There needs to be social, military, and political cohesion. That can happen if Cagjar and his administration reconcile Somali clans under the proverbial geed hoostiis. More than anything else, he would need the support of every clan elder. Such support can be gotten through a genuine reconciliation as there are many clans with many grievances.

He would then need to invite Somali political parties including ONLF. The clan elders, the parties, and the administration can formulate an agenda and way forward with the understanding it will be only through political and military unity that can protect their interests.

They should be clear about what they want and how they want to get it. The administration can recruit and train Liyu police from all clans, and mobilize the young and diaspora. And they should keep in mind Abiy is not a reliable partner.

I personally think peace in Ethiopia can't be achieved as long as Abiy is in power and as long as Ethiopia's foundational problems of Ethiopia are fixed.

The very nature of Ethiopia's governance is based on oppression. If Somalis come to power by miracle, they will probably create any Derg, TPLF, and alike.

Ethiopia needs a true federation if it is to be one country.

Agree with you, Somali’s interest lies in a true and equitable federation. But for this to becomes reality, Somali’s need to start aligning themselves closely to the Center amid the chaos, and ensure they are prepared, reconciled and have a common agenda they can advance with Abiy and whoever and whatever comes after him. 

And you are right without this reconciliation and shared common agenda, the risk is there that Abiy will be replaced by another centrist regime continuing the oppression and inequality, with Somalia becoming continuing to be the biggest victims. And one needs to break the cycle by doing things different, and preparing oneself for whatever might come and to influence/steer the federations directions when momentum present itself. 

And I can imagine potential scepticism from many Somali’s, and doubt if one can really assert influence among much more ‘politically advanced’ tribal groups and complex dynamics of Ethiopia. But It’s perhaps in this complex, volatile and violent political and polarised dynamics of Ethiopia, where the simplicity of a Somali driven call and singular ‘agenda’ for true equality and autonomy could thrive and be heard. Whereas on the contrary, the politics and agendas of the Tigray, Amhara, Oromo and Southern Nations are often marred by shifting and opportunistic agendas that are the basis of the clashing interest and alliances. 

Every dog has his day and perhaps the opportuun momentum for Somali’s might be on the horizon. 

[maakhiri1]