Next Ethiopian War: Eritrea/Amhara vs Tigray/Abiy

[Che -Guevara]

The next phase will start soon if Abiy doesn't resign.

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Arafaat]

Che, I have told you before eventually Amhara and Tigray will gang up, they will set their difference aside to maintain a Habasha hegemony over Ethiopia and all other nations.

Somali’s need to set their differences aside, work together with Mustafe Cagjar, Ahmed Abiy and build bridges with Oromo, Harreri’s and others part of former Southern-Nations.

But even though I am ignorant in the politics and matters of the Western Somali’s, but feel there is an extreme divisive politics build on paranoia, xenophobia and blatant ignorance that’s having a hold on the westerns-Somali’s collectively. 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

who are these western somalis u keep talking about are those somalis that live in the west 

or somali galbeed folks

 

Amhara will triump eventually over Abiye ahmed and is tigrayan friends and the eritreans are shortsighted the amharas will screw them over eventually

 

[Arafaat]

Somali galbeed /Kilinka folks.

Amhara won’t triumph over Abiy, unless Oromo, Somali’s and Afars somehow overcome their petty disputes and recurring issue over border villages and who is majority in which villages. Completely unnecessary and shouldn’t be to difficult to solve, specially if some their leaders somehow had a bigger ambition or agenda. 

I assume you hope for a Tigray return and Che is routing for Amhara’s? 

[Che -Guevara]

Arafaat,

I am not rooting for any particular group. Ethiopia as a state will always be hostile to Somalis regardless of who is running the government, whether be Oromo, Amhara, or Tigray.

Having said that, I do believe Ethiopia is slowly descending to tribal warfare which is very consequential for the region. No particular group has enough resources and military power to subdue the whole country. Temporary alliances are bound to fail. These alliances are not based on idealogy or any higher purpose. As soon as Tigrains were defeated, I knew Amhara and Abiy will turn on each other.

And for the first time, Amharas are contemplating a country of their own. The best possible solution is Ethiopia with true autonomous regional governments whose border issues are resolved and genuine reconciliation initiated at regional and subsequently federal levels. 

You are right about Abiy. The only way he can stay in power is to reconcile Oromo, Afar, and Somalis. It would also be helpful for him if he allows more nations from Southern regions to form their own regions like Sidama.  The Gurage Zone, Wolayita Zone, and many zones in the  Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' Region want to become their own autonomous regions. Abiy can facilitate that and can count on their support. 

 

[galbeedi]

Guys, the main instigators are the Amhara. They are jumping from one alliance to the other to reach their goal. They allied themselves with the Oromo to depose the TPLF and crown Abiy Ahmed whom they celebrated like their long awaited king and set the stage for the war with TPLF. They did the same thing and with Mustafe Cagjar, they even proposed him as the next premier to use Somalis against Oromo.

For Amhara , peace in Ethiopia is a danger for them. Who even says no to their agenda is their enemy. As Carafaat said, Somali/Cafar and Oromo should be natural alliance against the evil highlanders who will never submit with their leadership. 80% of the Ethiopian population is south of the Tigray/Amhara region.

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Arafaat]

On 7/8/2023 at 1:49 AM, Che -Guevara said:

Arafaat,

I am not rooting for any particular group. Ethiopia as a state will always be hostile to Somalis regardless of who is running the government, whether be Oromo, Amhara, or Tigray.

Having said that, I do believe Ethiopia is slowly descending to tribal warfare which is very consequential for the region. No particular group has enough resources and military power to subdue the whole country. Temporary alliances are bound to fail. These alliances are not based on idealogy or any higher purpose. As soon as Tigrains were defeated, I knew Amhara and Abiy will turn on each other.

And for the first time, Amharas are contemplating a country of their own. The best possible solution is Ethiopia with true autonomous regional governments whose border issues are resolved and genuine reconciliation initiated at regional and subsequently federal levels. 

You are right about Abiy. The only way he can stay in power is to reconcile Oromo, Afar, and Somalis. It would also be helpful for him if he allows more nations from Southern regions to form their own regions like Sidama.  The Gurage Zone, Wolayita Zone, and many zones in the  Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' Region want to become their own autonomous regions. Abiy can facilitate that and can count on their support. 

 

Why do you think an Oromo led Federal government in coalition with Afar, Somali would be still be hostile to Somali’s?

Is this because Somali’s wouldn’t be able to negotiate their interest because they are to divided and would undermine eachother or Somali interest would be diametrically opposed to what Oromo, Afar and Southern Nations want? 

I note the imperialistic tendencies in the history of the Ethiopian state, and also note your assertion that Ethiopian rulers inclination towards centralism and seeking a unified cultural hegemony. But wonder if and how this discourse could be changed, specially when the call from most nations and peoples seems to gravitate towards the same agenda as Somali’s want, which is more autonomy, decentralized decision making, basic freedoms and rights and socio-economic-political and cultural equity. 

It other words if an Ethiopian State will always be hostile towards Somali’s, wouldn’t it also be hostile towards Oromo, Afar and other Southern Nations? 

[Che -Guevara]

News: Amhara Regional President highlights devastating impact of road blockades, urges peaceful resolution in conflict-ridden region - Addis Standard

ADDISSTANDARD.COM

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(Photo: ameco.et) Addis Abeba – Yilekal Kefale (PhD), President of Amhara Regional State, has emphasized the detrimental effects of road blockades and restrictions on people's movements, citing significant...

 

[Che -Guevara]

On 7/17/2023 at 11:25 AM, Arafaat said:

Why do you think an Oromo led Federal government in coalition with Afar, Somali would be still be hostile to Somali’s?

Is this because Somali’s wouldn’t be able to negotiate their interest because they are to divided and would undermine eachother or Somali interest would be diametrically opposed to what Oromo, Afar and Southern Nations want? 

I note the imperialistic tendencies in the history of the Ethiopian state, and also note your assertion that Ethiopian rulers inclination towards centralism and seeking a unified cultural hegemony. But wonder if and how this discourse could be changed, specially when the call from most nations and peoples seems to gravitate towards the same agenda as Somali’s want, which is more autonomy, decentralized decision making, basic freedoms and rights and socio-economic-political and cultural equity. 

It other words if an Ethiopian State will always be hostile towards Somali’s, wouldn’t it also be hostile towards Oromo, Afar and other Southern Nations? 

Somalis are not seen and will never be seen as Ethiopians even if they try to assimilate. Yes, Oromos and Afar would ideally be their natural allies, but even they see Somalis as outsiders. It doesn't help Somalis don't have a leadership that can stand on its own and negotiates without fear. What Somalis have are yes men appointed by Addis Abeba. I can't say definitively, but I think the Somali Region is the only major region where its leader is appointed by the Central government. The Somali MPs and ministers in the Federal Government are also a docile bunch.

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]