Sheekh XasanTurki oo sheegay in ay xoog ku soo furanayaan Sheekh Max'ed Ismail

[Didi Kong]

Geez there are one too many threats flying around these days. The courts and SL should stay away from each other's throats for the greater good of all, if not that will just sink the rest of us into the depths of chaos and obscurity that they are already accustomed to. I don't know about y'all but I want to be a part of an internationally recognized Somalia. God protect us from the ambitions of people that are lacking in foresight.

[Didi Kong]

Geez there are one too many threats flying around these days. The courts and SL should stay away from each other's throats for the greater good of all, if not that will just sink the rest of us into the depths of chaos and obscurity that they are already accustomed to. I don't know about y'all but I want to be a part of an internationally recognized Somalia. God protect us from the ambitions of people that are lacking in foresight.

[General Duke]

ME. What will the rest do wait, for the uprising, assasination, spliting of the government and so on?

 

The problem for Mogadishu is the perception that they have the millitary power to subdue the whole country.

 

Puntland and Somaliland go beyond just personalities, there are too many stakeholders, beyond Cade, Riyaale in comparison to the warlords and factions that the courts have over taken.

 

I say that the courts are blowing their won trumpet a bit too much. A confrontation withe Puntland will be seen as a clan war on a major scale, say bye to Somalia.

[General Duke]

ME. What will the rest do wait, for the uprising, assasination, spliting of the government and so on?

 

The problem for Mogadishu is the perception that they have the millitary power to subdue the whole country.

 

Puntland and Somaliland go beyond just personalities, there are too many stakeholders, beyond Cade, Riyaale in comparison to the warlords and factions that the courts have over taken.

 

I say that the courts are blowing their won trumpet a bit too much. A confrontation withe Puntland will be seen as a clan war on a major scale, say bye to Somalia.

[Allamagan]

looooooool @ rambo!,

 

With that attitude, ehm, bal orod oo soo furo dheh aanu aagnee bal!

[Allamagan]

looooooool @ rambo!,

 

With that attitude, ehm, bal orod oo soo furo dheh aanu aagnee bal!

[me]

Originally posted by General Duke:

ME. What will the rest do wait, for the uprising, assasination, spliting of the government and so on?

 

The problem for Mogadishu is the perception that they have the millitary power to subdue the whole country.

 

Puntland and Somaliland go beyond just personalities, there are too many stakeholders, beyond Cade, Riyaale in comparison to the warlords and factions that the courts have over taken.

 

I say that the courts are blowing their won trumpet a bit too much. A confrontation withe Puntland will be seen as a clan war on a major scale, say bye to Somalia.

The rest won't do anything. There will be no clan war if the religious groups in PL and SL agree with the ICU. It will be an internal uprising. The people are fed up of the corrupt practices of the SL leadership and the PL leadership. It will be an internal uprising so a qabiil war is out of the question. Don't under estimate the surwaalgaabs. I have some respect for those guys. One thing that they can not be blamed for is inpatience. They control Somalia's business no one can deny that. They are in every city, every village and even the geeljires are with them. They are the docters, the teachers, they stayed in Somalia while we ran away. Its their country now.

 

Who will PL replace Cadde Muse with? PL is shaking and it has been shaking for a long long time. There is mistrust between the clans and sub-clans there. What will happen if A.Y. is assasinated or he just dies, he is not the youngest you know.

 

You asked me what will the rest do? My question is what can the rest do? There is no man stronger then A.Y. in the TFG only A.Y. keeps the TFG together, if he is gone it will crummble, the rest of the ministers are in it for the money. Who will take over from CADDE MUUSE? PL is corrupt and the averadge joe knows that. No one is willing to die for qabiil these days. CADDE MUUSE also devided the people of PL. His actions in Adhicadeeye didn't make him any freinds, his RANGE RECOURCES dealings alianated him the MAAKHIR population. The marginalization of the 'reer garowe'. PL will fall if they do not replace CADE MUUSE and his corrupt clique. No one is willing to die so that him and his likes will continue their corrupt lifestyles.

 

SL is another story.

 

I would advice the PLand SL leaderships to make deals with the ICU, make power sharing deals. Handover power to local wadaads that will do the negotiations with the wadaads in Mogadisho, they should make sure that they get guarantees that ther properties will be protected and that they get amnesty. They can not hold out much longer,they should save us the bloodshed. <<< when I say this I am imagining PL and SL to be independant thinking entities,which they are not. Adis Abeba is where both get their orders from.

[me]

Originally posted by General Duke:

ME. What will the rest do wait, for the uprising, assasination, spliting of the government and so on?

 

The problem for Mogadishu is the perception that they have the millitary power to subdue the whole country.

 

Puntland and Somaliland go beyond just personalities, there are too many stakeholders, beyond Cade, Riyaale in comparison to the warlords and factions that the courts have over taken.

 

I say that the courts are blowing their won trumpet a bit too much. A confrontation withe Puntland will be seen as a clan war on a major scale, say bye to Somalia.

The rest won't do anything. There will be no clan war if the religious groups in PL and SL agree with the ICU. It will be an internal uprising. The people are fed up of the corrupt practices of the SL leadership and the PL leadership. It will be an internal uprising so a qabiil war is out of the question. Don't under estimate the surwaalgaabs. I have some respect for those guys. One thing that they can not be blamed for is inpatience. They control Somalia's business no one can deny that. They are in every city, every village and even the geeljires are with them. They are the docters, the teachers, they stayed in Somalia while we ran away. Its their country now.

 

Who will PL replace Cadde Muse with? PL is shaking and it has been shaking for a long long time. There is mistrust between the clans and sub-clans there. What will happen if A.Y. is assasinated or he just dies, he is not the youngest you know.

 

You asked me what will the rest do? My question is what can the rest do? There is no man stronger then A.Y. in the TFG only A.Y. keeps the TFG together, if he is gone it will crummble, the rest of the ministers are in it for the money. Who will take over from CADDE MUUSE? PL is corrupt and the averadge joe knows that. No one is willing to die for qabiil these days. CADDE MUUSE also devided the people of PL. His actions in Adhicadeeye didn't make him any freinds, his RANGE RECOURCES dealings alianated him the MAAKHIR population. The marginalization of the 'reer garowe'. PL will fall if they do not replace CADE MUUSE and his corrupt clique. No one is willing to die so that him and his likes will continue their corrupt lifestyles.

 

SL is another story.

 

I would advice the PLand SL leaderships to make deals with the ICU, make power sharing deals. Handover power to local wadaads that will do the negotiations with the wadaads in Mogadisho, they should make sure that they get guarantees that ther properties will be protected and that they get amnesty. They can not hold out much longer,they should save us the bloodshed. <<< when I say this I am imagining PL and SL to be independant thinking entities,which they are not. Adis Abeba is where both get their orders from.

[General Duke]

ME. I never took you to be rash.

Brother mark my words these courts will not be able to replicate what happened in Mogadishu for several reaons in both Puntland and Somaliland. There needs to be no panic.

 

The Mogadishu residents have just gained the security that many in these areas have had for more than a decade.

 

Also you forget that the people of those regions, specially Somaliland are very suspecious of anything Mogadishu.

 

Millitarily the courts have only been able to occupy areas which their clans had a hold over. Mogadishu, Beledweyne, Kismayu and so on.

 

Who have they defeated? They cleared their home turf, but they have not faced the other well armed clans of Somalia, including Hiiraales in Battle.

 

If they attack Baidoa then Puntland would be sucked in and thus the clan war can not be avoided. Puntland has many troops in Baidoa and they represent every clan of the state.

 

They have slim hold over the learge araes they control, so any adventure could give them a great set back.

 

We wait and see, but I am feeling that the few victories they have had is like the call of the fake dawn.

 

Right now Mr ME the others are planning just like the courts..The quite before the storm I guess.

[General Duke]

ME. I never took you to be rash.

Brother mark my words these courts will not be able to replicate what happened in Mogadishu for several reaons in both Puntland and Somaliland. There needs to be no panic.

 

The Mogadishu residents have just gained the security that many in these areas have had for more than a decade.

 

Also you forget that the people of those regions, specially Somaliland are very suspecious of anything Mogadishu.

 

Millitarily the courts have only been able to occupy areas which their clans had a hold over. Mogadishu, Beledweyne, Kismayu and so on.

 

Who have they defeated? They cleared their home turf, but they have not faced the other well armed clans of Somalia, including Hiiraales in Battle.

 

If they attack Baidoa then Puntland would be sucked in and thus the clan war can not be avoided. Puntland has many troops in Baidoa and they represent every clan of the state.

 

They have slim hold over the learge araes they control, so any adventure could give them a great set back.

 

We wait and see, but I am feeling that the few victories they have had is like the call of the fake dawn.

 

Right now Mr ME the others are planning just like the courts..The quite before the storm I guess.

[me]

If the leaderships of PL and SL act brave and they try to round up Islamist sympathizers. They will loose the support of the general public. Example: Sheikh Max'ed Sheikh Ismaciil and the wadaads in PL jails. If they kill wadaads in PL and SL, those wadaads have TOL. If they bring in Ethiopian soldiers to support them, they will undermine their own legitimacy, just like the TFG has done, just like PL has done. It’s a no win situation. They will loose every time. Please think of one scenario in which PL and SL survive this intact.

 

Hmmmm maybe if they leave the country and organize a rebellion from Ethiopia, just like the SSDF, SNM and the USC had done. Give the wadaads couple of years. Let the people experience their rule, maybe they will mess it up on their own and loose the support that they have with the general public.

 

They can also perpetrate terrorist acts and blame the ICU? Maybe win support that way.

[me]

If the leaderships of PL and SL act brave and they try to round up Islamist sympathizers. They will loose the support of the general public. Example: Sheikh Max'ed Sheikh Ismaciil and the wadaads in PL jails. If they kill wadaads in PL and SL, those wadaads have TOL. If they bring in Ethiopian soldiers to support them, they will undermine their own legitimacy, just like the TFG has done, just like PL has done. It’s a no win situation. They will loose every time. Please think of one scenario in which PL and SL survive this intact.

 

Hmmmm maybe if they leave the country and organize a rebellion from Ethiopia, just like the SSDF, SNM and the USC had done. Give the wadaads couple of years. Let the people experience their rule, maybe they will mess it up on their own and loose the support that they have with the general public.

 

They can also perpetrate terrorist acts and blame the ICU? Maybe win support that way.

[General Duke]

ME. again you mix up many issues, what rebelion is there in Puntland? None so far, just like there was no rebelion in Kismayu, Marka, Barava and Baidoa. Kismayu was taken over, so if they courts attack Galkacyu they will spark a clan war fare. Its a catch twenty two, noh?

 

They need an internal uprising that might not come, and they cannot invade. So they must wait. The conditions in these areas are not the same as in the south. But that’s one mistake these courts are making.

 

You make a number of invalid assumptions. The most basic is that the ICU has more military power than the TFG, Puntland and so on. And that the people of Puntland are sufficiently dissatisfied with their regime to replace it with the courts.

 

The courts filled a vacuum in Mogadishu, those other areas have been in peace for a while.

 

Do not take Shiekh Rambo's comments literaly, will they attack Hargaysa?

[General Duke]

ME. again you mix up many issues, what rebelion is there in Puntland? None so far, just like there was no rebelion in Kismayu, Marka, Barava and Baidoa. Kismayu was taken over, so if they courts attack Galkacyu they will spark a clan war fare. Its a catch twenty two, noh?

 

They need an internal uprising that might not come, and they cannot invade. So they must wait. The conditions in these areas are not the same as in the south. But that’s one mistake these courts are making.

 

You make a number of invalid assumptions. The most basic is that the ICU has more military power than the TFG, Puntland and so on. And that the people of Puntland are sufficiently dissatisfied with their regime to replace it with the courts.

 

The courts filled a vacuum in Mogadishu, those other areas have been in peace for a while.

 

Do not take Shiekh Rambo's comments literaly, will they attack Hargaysa?

[me]

General Duke there is no panic here. I do not believe that there will be a clan war. The only ones that want a clan war today are the enemies of the Somali people. The Somali people are wiser today. We mistrust each other, but we all want peace.

 

What is happening now is described in Franz Fannon’s wretched of the earth. He stated that:

 

Sometimes colonialism attempts to dislocate or create diversions around the upward thrust of nationalism. Instead of organizing the sheikhs and the chiefs against the ‘revolutionaries’ in the towns, native committees organize the tribes and confraternities into parties. Confronted with the urban party which was beginning to ‘embody the national will’ and to constitute a danger for the colonial regime, splinter groups are born, and tendencies and parties which have their origin in ethnical or regional differences spring up. It is the entire tribe which is turning itself into a political party, closely advised by the colonialists.

 

 

The revolutionary party today is the ICU and it has already begun to embody the national will. The colonialist regime (Anarchists supported by the Ethio’s) will use every tool to their disposal to preserve the status quo. They will try to make this struggle look like a clan struggle. The PL leadership will position itself so that they are seen as the champions of their clan. SL will do the same. They will try to portray the ICU as an alien force that is invading their clans’ land. They will scare the population. They will try to manipulate that fear and translate it into popular support. The ICU is not helping itself; they should communicate with the common man in every Somali city. They should share their vision with the people. The common man is tired of war, he wants peace. PL and SL are entities of the past. The common man does not see them as the future. They have done their work. They have served the people well in the past 16 years. The Somali people living those regions are grateful, but now the time has come that they should work for the greater good of the Somali nation. The people have entrusted them with the power to lead and the people can take that power away if they see that it is misused. Riyaale earning 400.000 Dollars a year while there is 92% unemployment rate in SL is not good leadership. Cade Muuse selling the Mineral and oil wealth of PL for 12 million and some shares is not accountable leadership. The people are fed up with these practices. Either SL and PL will reform or ‘waa lagu kala tagayaa’. It does not seem to me that the leadership of SL and PL care about the common man. Even if they care it seems that the leadership is incompetent. I hope that they see their weakness and that they negotiate with the ICU. The common man deserves it.