The consequence of Jeyte’s succession dream for HirShabelle and the FGS

[Deeq A.]

Following the Hiiraan crisis it seems like I’m experiencing a change of perspective regarding the Hiiraan commissioner Cali Jeyte. It’s not uncommon for new information or events to shape your opinions. Therefore, in following my earlier article I would like to incorporate these updated views into this article.

Considering recent developments, this article will focus on the significance and implications of Cali Jeyte’s actions regarding the fragile HirShabelle state and the federal government.  

Here are some potential implications to consider:

1. Political instability: Jeyte’s refusal to transfer his position, declaration of himself as head of the so-called Hiiraan state, and involvement in organizing mutiny can contribute to political instability within Somalia. These actions challenge the authority and legitimacy of the national government, leading to divisions and power struggles. This instability hampers the government’s ability to effectively govern and address the numerous challenges the country faces.

2. Fragmentation of power: Jeyte’s declaration of his own state and actions against the government risk fragmenting power within Somalia. This can lead to the emergence of competing factions or regions asserting their autonomy, further weakening the central government’s control and ability to govern the entire country. Fragmentation of power can exacerbate existing conflicts, hinder the delivery of essential services, and impede efforts towards national reconciliation and unity. 

3. Erosion of trust and credibility: Jeyte’s actions may erode trust and credibility in the Somali government both domestically and internationally. The government’s ability to govern effectively depends on the trust and support of its citizens as well as the international community. The defiance and thuggish behaviour exhibited by Jeyte can undermine confidence in the government’s ability to maintain law and order, protect citizens’ rights, and provide stability. This can hinder efforts to attract investment, secure international support, and foster sustainable development. 

4. Security risks: The actions of Jeyte can have security implications for Somalia. Political instability and power struggles can create an environment conducive to increased violence, criminal activities, and the resurgence of extremist groups like Al-Shabaab. These security risks not only threaten the safety and well-being of the Somali people but also impede efforts towards peacebuilding, counterterrorism, and stabilization within the country. 

HirShabelle’s state and federal governments need to address sooner than later the implications and the potential consequences of Jeyte’s actions on the already fragile Somali government.

In addition, the consequences of Cali Jeyte’s secession from the HirShabelle state would be far worse if he were to succeed, and could have significant implications for the HirShabelle state and Somalia as a whole. Here are some potential consequences to consider: 

1. Political fragmentation: Jeyte’s secession would contribute to further political fragmentation within Somalia. It would result in the creation of a new entity outside the established governance structures, potentially leading to the division of the HirShabelle state. This fragmentation can weaken the authority and effectiveness of the central government, as well as undermine efforts towards national unity and reconciliation. 

2. Heightened tensions and conflicts: The secession of Jeyte could escalate tensions and potentially lead to conflicts within the region. It may spark territorial disputes, power struggles, and competition over resources among different groups or factions. These conflicts can exacerbate existing clans, or political divisions, further destabilizing the region and hindering efforts towards peace and stability.

3. Impaired governance and service delivery: The secession of Jeyte and the creation of a separate entity would disrupt governance structures and service delivery in the region. It would create administrative challenges, including issues related to security, law enforcement, infrastructure development, and public service provision. The absence of a coordinated and unified governance framework can result in gaps and inefficiencies in the delivery of essential services to the local population. 

4. International recognition and support: The secession of Jeyte and the establishment of a new state would likely face challenges in terms of international recognition and support. It is unlikely to be recognized by the international community and could face isolation diplomatically and economically. This lack of recognition can impede access to international aid, cooperation, and development assistance, hindering the region’s progress and development. 

5. Precedent for further secessions: Jeyte’s successful secession could set a precedent for other regions or groups within Somalia’s fragile federal system to pursue similar actions. This can create a domino effect, further fragmenting the country and undermining its unity and territorial integrity. The proliferation of secessionist movements can perpetuate instability, hamper state-building efforts, and hinder the prospects for a unified and cohesive Somalia.

Dr. Mohamed Hassan Tifow
Cultural Anthropologist and Development Sociologist.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the official stance of Caasimada Online or its members. 

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