Puntland and Mogadishu opposition get their way

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

It looks like Xamze will be the sacrificial lamb not that his presence mattered in the first place.

[maakhiri1]

Kkkk

Omg, what a farce, they will never come together and sign something without PL

Their credibility is gone, Hamse must resign ASAP 

[Che -Guevara]

15 minutes ago, maakhiri1 said:

Kkkk

Omg, what a farce, they will never come together and sign something without PL

Their credibility is gone, Hamse must resign ASAP 

Their attempt at power grab was wild. They swung hard and missed. Hamse will be booted. Ironically, if HSM backs down, the regional leaders come out stronger specifically Laftagareen and Deni.

[galbeedi]

The main issue is basically the process and the players. 

They bite more than they could chew, yet the idea of reforming the system is a good idea. If the presidential terms are changed to five years, it couldn't be retroactive. You can't change the rules during the game. As C/rahman C/shakur said, the agreed upon term changes could  apply only for the next term.

The absence of Puntland and the manner HSM conducts government business, especially his entourage during foreign travels has exasperated any goodwill toward the president. Since the prime minister is the main base of the constitutional charters agreed by large consensus it needs debate within the parliament and the public. 

The argument that certain clan which earned the premier position through 4.5 could lose power sharing  is a weak argument to reject  changes to the presidential system. How about if a D block president is elected the next term and a HAG is the premier? The HAG group  could scream bloody murder and a power grab by the D block and it might even create a civil war( Maantana ma waxay keeneen in ay Raiisul wasaareheeni shaqadiisi baabi'iyaan, Tol beelelayey ninka ha loo gargaaro sidii Rooble) Since the MOgadishu based groups are generally anti state institutions, the D block should be the one accepting these reforms for the future. It is safe to do the reforms during the HSM regime for many reasons.

 

I think Hamza should not be accused of accepting the eliminations of his job. Believe me,  if I were the president,  I would have appreciated greatly if my premier is willing to sacrifice for the future of the country. Cumar Sharmaarke was slow and weak premier during his tenure under HSM, and everyone had accused him of being laky. 

Laba la isku heli maayo. Marna in layidhaado waa marxuun oo waxba magalo, marna la yidhaahdo jagadii beeshayada ayaa Hamza baabi'inayaa.

We have the 12th prime minister since 2004 Empagati government. It is a dysfunctional system that must be discarded for future harmony. I am aware that democracy is a mess, but for the Somali nomads, stability is a priority. If Hamza is willing to sacrifice, it is a welcome news. The debate I missed or the issue I didn't consider was when the changes would be effective, and C/rahman C/shakuur has explained well that changes implemented by the parliament would only affect for the next government not in this term.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Illyria]

Not only was theirs a blatant power grab, but they have been scolded as if rowdy, pugnacious teenagers by their financing overlords, and had it not been for the overlords of the FGS, Hassan & Hamze would have taken the country back to the abyss.

[galbeedi]

2 minutes ago, Illyria said:

Not only was theirs a blatant power grab, but they have been scolded as if rowdy, pugnacious teenagers by their financing overlords, and had it not been for the overlords of the FGS, Hassan & Hamze would have taken the country back to the abyss.

That is probably true. I didn't pay attention to the overloads. History has shown greedy Somalis usually backdown when scolded by the Beesha Lixaad.

[Illyria]

6 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

The main issue is basically the process and the players. 

They bite more than they could chew, yet the idea of reforming the system is a good idea. If the presidential terms are changed to five years, it couldn't be retroactive. You can't change the rules during the game. As C/rahman C/shakur said, the agreed upon term changes could  apply only for the next term.

The absence of Puntland and the manner HSM conducts government business, especially his entourage during foreign travels has exasperated any goodwill toward the president. Since the prime minister is the main base of the constitutional charters agreed by large consensus it needs debate within the parliament and the public. 

The argument that certain clan which earned the premier position through 4.5 could lose power sharing  is a weak argument to reject  changes to the presidential system. How about if a D block president is elected the next term and a HAG is the premier? The HAG group  could scream bloody murder and a power grab by the D block and it might even create a civil war( Maantana ma waxay keeneen in ay Raiisul wasaareheeni shaqadiisi baabi'iyaan, Tol beelelayey ninka ha loo gargaaro sidii Rooble) Since the MOgadishu based groups are generally anti state institutions, the D block should be the one accepting these reforms for the future. It is safe to do the reforms during the HSM regime for many reasons.

 

I think Hamza should not be accused of accepting the eliminations of his job. Believe me,  if I were the president,  I would have appreciated greatly if my premier is willing to sacrifice for the future of the country. Cumar Sharmaarke was slow and weak premier during his tenure under HSM, and everyone had accused him of being laky. 

Laba la isku heli maayo. Marna in layidhaado waa marxuun oo waxba magalo, marna la yidhaahdo jagadii beeshayada ayaa Hamza baabi'inayaa.

We have the 12th prime minister since 2004 Empagati government. It is a dysfunctional system that must be discarded for future harmony. I am aware that democracy is a mess, but for the Somali nomads, stability is a priority. If Hamza is willing to sacrifice, it is a welcome news. The debate I missed or the issue I didn't consider was when the changes would be effective, and C/rahman C/shakuur has explained well that changes implemented by the parliament would only affect for the next government not in this term.

See, your analyses would have been grand, had it been about a stable, harmonious nation, but unfortunately ours is not, therefore the fulcrum of the President vs the PM is still critical.

[Illyria]

30 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

That is probably true. I didn't pay attention to the overloads. History has shown greedy Somalis usually backdown when scolded by the Beesha Lixaad.

I was being gentle, when I said, scolded, actually they had been summoned, and given a dressing-down, as if ground serfs.

[Che -Guevara]

Galbeedi,

The problem with Hamza is being openly hostile to some while failing to explain things. He was mimicking his boss but megaphone.  He should have counseled Prez. HSM, Mind you, the changes that are advocating for requires parliament approval at a minimum. They turned the national council into Kacaan revolutionary council.

[maakhiri1]

It all comes down to credibility.

HSM is not very credible, I honestly welcome Presidential system, provided that person leading the process , should not be HSM, dumb, very corrupt and has zero understanding  of governance

You see, let us have a presidential system like Philippines, or US, with term limit, do you remember ,President Rodrigo Duterte, how he had dictatorship tendencies? where is he? he is gone because of term limit by constitution

can HSM accept that he can not re-run in 2026? because of term limit, and reform the country, I doubt

[maakhiri1]

43 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

Galbeedi,

The problem with Hamza is being openly hostile to some while failing to explain things. He was mimicking his boss but megaphone.  He should have counseled Prez. HSM, Mind you, the changes that are advocating for requires parliament approval at a minimum. They turned the national council into Kacaan revolutionary council.

The biggest problem everywhere, including regional gov, they all act like KACAANKII, parliament has no say

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Arafaat]

On 6/6/2023 at 4:09 AM, maakhiri1 said:

The biggest problem everywhere, including regional gov, they all act like KACAANKII, parliament has no say

Indeed much of the Somali leaders and executive institutions have authoritarians tendencies. And don’t realize why the Somali state collapsed in the first place. 

[Arafaat]

On 6/6/2023 at 4:08 AM, maakhiri1 said:

It all comes down to credibility.

HSM is not very credible, I honestly welcome Presidential system, provided that person leading the process , should not be HSM, dumb, very corrupt and has zero understanding  of governance

You see, let us have a presidential system like Philippines, or US, with term limit, do you remember ,President Rodrigo Duterte, how he had dictatorship tendencies? where is he? he is gone because of term limit by constitution

can HSM accept that he can not re-run in 2026? because of term limit, and reform the country, I doubt

For the said reform to be taken seriously, and for HSM to be given benefit of the doubt against, those changes in Presidential term, system and voting on parties/local elections would start after his term in 2026. 

And meantime the government would focus on local reconciliation, stabilization and building district authorities. 

Government should have prioritized the following steps; 

1. Reconciliation takes place in each and every  local community of different groups, clans and solving 

2. Based on reconciliation come to agreement on shared values and local social contract that ensure inclusivity and shared commons (Meeshan wa wada leenahay). 

3. Ensure formation of inclusive district authorities that are based on communal consultation and participatory approaches(dowlada hoose dadka la tashata oo la shaqeysa).

4. Prioritize training and equipping local police from local communities, that is serving the local peace and local governance (decoupled from Federal/State led militias).

5. Let the local authorities and communities work on concrete basic service deliveries in localities. Ensure transparency and inclusive participation is adhered to. Encourage local communities compete with one another for development, good governance and community participation(incl Diaspora sections). 

6. Ensure FGS/FMS are working closely together and are on the same page on process steps 1-5, and mitigate any spoilers or actor politicizing or polarizing local process for local community reconciliation, and local governance establishment. 

But by attaching at this stage local elections for district councils, with national party formation and national elections, without any reconciliation, stabilization having taken place in localities and without having first put in place cohesive local governance authorities, one is basically turning local districts in to highly politicized, polarized and explosive settings. This might lead to a repeat of what happened in Mogadishu between April-June 2021, but then this time in all Somali districts it could turn to violent standoffs fueled by competition for political stakes. Very unwise to do so.