America's candidate in Egypt's presidential elections

[Jacaylbaro]

He is not the regular kind of oppositionist that you can throw into prison with a snap of the fingers, of whom there are thousands in Egypt, locked away, forgotten about, without being charged or brought to trial. For having criticized the rigid control of the political system, the former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA,) Mohamed ElBaradei, has become the regime`s nightmare. But he also embodies the hopes of many Egyptians, who would like to see “their” Nobel Peace Prize winner (in 2005, with the IAEA) join the presidential contest. For an Egyptian leadership class that has always been confident of its rights and prerogatives, any candidacy has always been an act of insolence. Are those days gone? Be that as it may, the post-Mubarak question now arises.

 

The failing health of the head of state, the octogenarian Husni Mubarak, who has been in power since 1981 and who was admitted to hospital in Germany in March, makes the situation uncertain. And the “ElBaradei effect” all the more powerful. In fact the man in question became a phenomenon in his own country almost without his knowledge, via the Facebook social network and various other websites. This even happened in his absence, as the senior international official, now retired, was travelling abroad when the movement developed.

 

“What ElBaradei says is nothing new. We ourselves have long criticized the negligence and bottlenecks of the Egyptian system,” Mounir Fakhry Abdel Nur (name as published), secretary general of the opposition Wafd Party, said. But this time “it is as though a bombshell had hit the political landscape,” the leader of the former nationalist party said. Whether or not it lasts, this disruption is “a good thing,” Mounir Abdel Nur added.

 

So what did the former IAEA chief say? Nothing shocking -- at least for a country governed by the rule of law. That he could perhaps stand as a candidate in the presidential election scheduled for September 2011. As long as, he specified, the election is “free and honest.” This entails a “revision of the Constitution,” he also warned, and in particular a repeal of the notorious Articles 76 and 77.

 

According to existing legislation, in order to contest a presidential election you must not only belong to a political party legally represented in Parliament for the past five years, but must also have the support of at least 250 members of the People`s Assembly, the Consultative Council, and the Regional Governorate Councils. However, all these bodies are overwhelmingly dominated by the ruling Democratic National Party and its associates.

 

Though intended to exclude the Muslim Brotherhood -- officially banned but in practice tolerated in Parliament -- these constitutional barriers exclude all independent candidates from the electoral contest. As for the state or emergency, decreed in 1981 following President Anwar al-Sadat`s assassination, it still makes it possible to ban demonstrations or public meetings deemed undesirable.

 

Loudly deploring, mainly on talk-shows, these obsolete repressive traps, but also the corruption, incompetence, and social injustice that paralyze Egypt, the untouchable Mohamed ElBaradei has above all rejected the idea of joining a legal party -- which the Constitution requires as a condition for standing as a candidate. “It is unusual to hear such things said by someone such as ElBaradei. He belongs to the establishment, after all! He is a major figure...,” was the comment from academic Madhia Doss (name as published), a member of the secular left, with reference to Mohammed ElBaradei`s first television appearance, a year ago. This, because, though the blaze started suddenly, the embers of opposition have been smoldering for a long time.

 

“Mohammed ElBaradei has arrived at the right time. Not as a savior, no. As a man of integrity. As a sage. He`s not handsome? He lacks charisma? If so, so much the better: we don`t need a Che Guevara!” Alaa al-Aswany said. The author of “The Yacoubian Building” (published by Actes Sud 12006,) a dentist by profession, receives visitors at his modest practice near the banks of the Nile, which he attends twice a week. Like many Egyptians who have joined the pro-ElBaradei movement, the novelist is not very enthusiastic about parties in general, and particularly about the so-called official opposition parties. This has not prevented him from attending all the protest demonstrations of recent years, like the Kafiya (literally “Enough!”) group led by George Ishaq.

 

ElBaradei`s supporters are thirsty for politics! The poet, Abd al-Rahman Yusuf, who launched the website

 

http://www.elbaradei2011.com www.elbaradei2011.com in January, readily admits it. “In principle, true, we should go via the parties. We need them, just as we need shoes to walk in. But, you know, a human being can walk even without shoes!” this forty-something said with a smile, at a table in the Riche cafe in the center of Old Cairo. Like him, most pro-ElBaradei Internet users are apparently aged 35-40. Like him, they belong to the middle classes and are well off.

 

How many people are “marching” against the regime? According to Alaa al-Aswany, almost 160,000 people have already expressed their support for Mohammed ElBaradei on the Facebook network. “We will reach a million,” the novelist predicted. “We will succeed in creating a genuine popular movement; this is our challenge,” Abd al-Rahman Yusuf added.

 

This impetus of opposition, still largely virtual, does not impress the chairman of the Wafd Party, Deputy Mahmud Abaza. “However much steam you produce, it will not make the machine run,” he quipped. More detached, the spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood group in Parliament, Muhammad Saad al-Katatni, welcomes Mohamed ElBaradei`s initiative. He has no problem with the fact that it comes from a secular liberal. “We are in favor of anything that can help to loosen the grip of oppression. Though we realize that there is a long road ahead,” the Islamist leader said.

 

The Muslim Brotherhood, which, despite vote rigging, has 86 members of Parliament (out of a total of 454 deputies,) is a major force on the Egyptian scene. It is often said to be the only opposition force worthy of the name in Egypt. According to Muhammad Saad al-Katatni, there are at any given time “400-500” members in prison. Mohamed ElBaradei is under no illusions. The 30 people that the former UN diplomat invited to his home on the outskirts of Cairo in February of course included the spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood`s deputies, who sat alongside politicians and artists of different tendencies.

 

Can this heterogeneous grouping, this “rejection coalition,” as its detractors call it, act as the lever for change? Can it eventually impose a new mode of government, fairer and more transparent, that can extricate Egypt from its quagmire? Unless, that is, this agitation dies down as quickly as it has emerged? One thing is certain: Mohamed ElBaradei has caused a surprise -- even in his own camp. “He was not regarded as a political leader. In fact, he was not considered at all: apart from the Muslim Brotherhood, who are brandished as a bugbear, people did not imagine that any alternative to the regime was possible,” Madhia Doss observed. Earlier protest movements “lacked a figurehead,” Islamist deputy al-Katatni said. This gap has now been filled. But for how long?

 

“What unites us is the battle for civil rights, to break down the constitutional barriers that prevent free elections -- nothing more. Apart from that, each has his own vision of Egypt! Mohamed ElBaradei is smart enough not to impose his own,” Alaa al-Aswany said. According to the writer, the fact that the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize winner has spent most of his life away from Cairo is a plus point: “His hands are clean!” Mr al-Aswany smiled. Together with academic Hassan Nafaa and Dr Abu al-Ghar, he is a member of Mohamed ElBaradei`s inner circle.

 

However there can be no question of going, as in February, to Cairo airport to grant a hero`s welcome to the man who is doing his utmost not to be one. On Saturday 20 March, on his return from a foreign tour, Egypt`s outsider will engage in a discreet test of strength with the regime. A major press campaign against the “unacceptable” ElBaradei, as one pro-government newspaper called him, has little chance of stopping him. No more than the intransigent posture adopted by government representatives, who keep saying that there can be no question of amending the Constitution. This, because the former IAEA chief has already changed the situation. The political parties, whatever posture they adopt, have all aged considerably during the past six months. As for the candidacy of Gamal Mubarak, the head of state`s son, considered the “natural” successor to the rais, it now seems to lack supporters. His is whispered to offer an unfortunate counter-example to some countries of the region.

 

“If there is a problem, it will come from the regime, not from us,” Alaa al-Aswany warned. In fact an initial “problem” has already emerged, in Al Fayum province, southeast of Cairo: a doctor, a supporter of ElBaradei, had to be admitted to hospital following a night during which he was held by state security forces. He had been humiliated and beaten black and blue, before being thrown naked onto the city streets in the early morning. “This is the start of a campaign of repression against Mohamed ElBaradei`s supporters,” the victim`s attorney said. Egypt has indeed entered a turbulent period.

[Jacaylbaro]