A message to the Hargeisa regime.

[galbeedi]

In June, the Laascaanood conflict will be six months.

Since the start of the demonstrations up to today, Somaliland forces are losing ground, and despite the propaganda from Hargeisa things are getting from bad to worse. The Somaliland forces had abandoned the so called British border area long ago. The SSC forces control Tukaraq which about 75 KM to Garoowe. They control the historical town of  Taleex to the south, Boocame and between. SL forces had left these towns for the last few months and the chances of return are almost nil.

In any apprising where local people want to control their destiny, the only way to deny their aspirations is to overwhelm them by brute force for a while until.. The other option is  been expelled as history has shown. There are logical conclusion that indicate the eventual defeat of Somaliland forces.

1-The war is taking place within the homes of SSC forces.

This is a huge advantage when the battle is taking place at the backyard of the locals fighting for their freedom. The country side is hostile to Somaliland forces. Two days ago when the war broke in Tuulo Samakaab which happen at the supply line 50 KM from Laascaanood, the locals took up arms and fought the SL forces from behind. Another deadly factor is unlike other clans, every sub clan of the Garaad community are armed to the teeth to defend from their own clans just in case. When it comes dark at night the locals are coming from under the ground, and no knows if these are nomads or the SSC forces.

2-Both forces have almost equal amount of arms.

While Somaliland forces have some long range artillery fire and rockets, there ae limits to that. Traditionally, wars among Somalis usually lasts few months with each group exhausting their bullets and rockets. The SSC forces also have mobile technicals and other heavy weapons, especially the latest additions from Puntland clans. Furthermore, in Puntland every tribe has the right to import weapons and pick up trucks for their own protections. The Garoowe based government might control politics and the purse, but they do not interfere with trade and weapons procurements among clans. Every one has the right to bear arms. These actions might weaken the power of the government, yet everyone understands that despite their pronouncements, these governments are in transition and do not represent real Somali government. We all know that  the last real government of Somalia was in 1991. Kacaankii barakeysnaa dawladi kama dambeyn ilaa maanta 2023. Reer vPuntland arintaas wey ogyihiin, waana sobota Qabaa'ilku hubkiisa u haysto, just in case

3- Their supply line are almost equal.

Somaliland had 20 years to arm, build and stockpile arms, and has some capacity to supply fuel and other logistics, but the SSC also has a supply line from Puntland and the H..rti. heartland. A group called Si.wa..ron from the other side of the Indian Ocean, who had never participated in  any conflict, had brought hundreds of guns, armored cars and men. THese are not landlocked communities which you could block their supply.

Furthermore, in terms of man power, there are 15,000 men in Laascaanood. Everyone is trying to make his mark. The arrival of military veterans from the diaspora and other places have already changed military strategy. Despite what Youtubers and others seeking publicity say, these commanders no longer worry about about Goojacade. They are taking their time. They are targeting Tuulo Samakaab, Yagoori and even the outskirts of OOG. These mobile units pass through their own countryside and rural people for information, food and more. Goojacade forces are considered sitting ducks and soon will be seeking way out.

So, if you can't overwhelm the locals, can't deny them supply and with thousands of manpower, the coming results will be nothing but defeat.

I did listen today the failed warlord Muuse Biixi revisiting those events that took place 35 years ago. Like most failed politicians he has to find someone to blame. His perfect target seems to be Morgan who retired from military activity 25 years ago. He lives Morgan's house and that is probably making him uncomfortable at night. He declared that those who bombed Hargeisa were all Puntlanders. Like a suicider,  he even declared that " If Somaliland borders are not respected, then there will be wars targeting other parts of the five Somali regions". Is he going to attack Ethiopia or hire Dahir Calasow and company to bomb Nairobi? I don't know, but I would advise neighboring countries to be very careful.

This week the Ethiopian intelligence had removed some wounded SL officers from hospitals in Addis after doctors informed that men with bullet wounds had arrived and cared in their hospital. The doctors were inquiring whether these men were wounded in Oromia area or in DDS. The Ethiopian Intelligence were upset that officers from SL were brought to Addis whiteout their knowledge.

Since this was a message to Hargeisa let me spell out.

Stop killing your youth for a war  that can't be won in someone else's homeland.  Are you waiting until the war comes to OOG? The battles of the last three days were not about capturing Laascaanood, but opening and securing the supply line with deadly results.

I know Muuse Biixi is delusional, but where are the others? Is this about chest bumping and hubris?

This war is already been lost. Please save your kids from destruction and save the meagre resources for water and health care.

Qoom markuu dumayo, balaayaa loo bidhbidhiyaa.

Ragow kibirka waa lagu kufaaye Kaa Ha la Ogaado.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Illyria]

1 hour ago, galbeedi said:

In June, the Laascaanood conflict will be six months.

Since the start of the demonstrations up to today, Somaliland forces are losing ground, and despite the propaganda from Hargeisa things are getting from bad to worse. The Somaliland forces had abandoned the so called British border area long ago. The SSC forces control Tukaraq which about 75 KM to Garoowe. They control the historical town of  Taleex to the south, Boocame and between. SL forces had left these towns for the last few months and the chances of return are almost nil.

In any apprising where local people want to control their destiny, the only way to deny their aspirations is to overwhelm them by brute force for a while until.. The other option is  been expelled as history has shown. There are logical conclusion that indicate the eventual defeat of Somaliland forces.

1-The war is taking place within the homes of SSC forces.

This is a huge advantage when the battle is taking place at the backyard of the locals fighting for their freedom. The country side is hostile to Somaliland forces. Two days ago when the war broke in Tuulo Samakaab which happen at the supply line 50 KM from Laascaanood, the locals took up arms and fought the SL forces from behind. Another deadly factor is unlike other clans, every sub clan of the Garaad community are armed to the teeth to defend from their own clans just in case. When it comes dark at night the locals are coming from under the ground, and no knows if these are nomads or the SSC forces.

2-Both forces have almost equal amount of arms.

While Somaliland forces have some long range artillery fire and rockets, there ae limits to that. Traditionally, wars among Somalis usually lasts few months with each group exhausting their bullets and rockets. The SSC forces also have mobile technicals and other heavy weapons, especially the latest additions from Puntland clans. Furthermore, in Puntland every tribe has the right to import weapons and pick up trucks for their own protections. The Garoowe based government might control politics and the purse, but they do not interfere with trade and weapons procurements among clans. Every one has the right to bear arms. These actions might weaken the power of the government, yet everyone understands that despite their pronouncements, these governments are in transition and do not represent real Somali government. We all know that  the last real government of Somalia was in 1991. Kacaankii barakeysnaa dawladi kama dambeyn ilaa maanta 2023. Reer vPuntland arintaas wey ogyihiin, waana sobota Qabaa'ilku hubkiisa u haysto, just in case

3- Their supply line are almost equal.

Somaliland had 20 years to arm, build and stockpile arms, and has some capacity to supply fuel and other logistics, but the SSC also has a supply line from Puntland and the H..rti. heartland. A group called Si.wa..ron from the other side of the Indian Ocean, who had never participated in  any conflict, had brought hundreds of guns, armored cars and men. THese are not landlocked communities which you could block their supply.

Furthermore, in terms of man power, there are 15,000 men in Laascaanood. Everyone is trying to make his mark. The arrival of military veterans from the diaspora and other places have already changed military strategy. Despite what Youtubers and others seeking publicity say, these commanders no longer worry about about Goojacade. They are taking their time. They are targeting Tuulo Samakaab, Yagoori and even the outskirts of OOG. These mobile units pass through their own countryside and rural people for information, food and more. Goojacade forces are considered sitting ducks and soon will be seeking way out.

So, if you can't overwhelm the locals, can't deny them supply and with thousands of manpower, the coming results will be nothing but defeat.

I did listen today the failed warlord Muuse Biixi revisiting those events that took place 35 years ago. Like most failed politicians he has to find someone to blame. His perfect target seems to be Morgan who retired from military activity 25 years ago. He lives Morgan's house and that is probably making him uncomfortable at night. He declared that those who bombed Hargeisa were all Puntlanders. Like a suicider,  he even declared that " If Somaliland borders are not respected, then there will be wars targeting other parts of the five Somali regions". Is he going to attack Ethiopia or hire Dahir Calasow and company to bomb Nairobi? I don't know, but I would advise neighboring countries to be very careful.

This week the Ethiopian intelligence had removed some wounded SL officers from hospitals in Addis after doctors informed that men with bullet wounds had arrived and cared in their hospital. The doctors were inquiring whether these men were wounded in Oromia area or in DDS. The Ethiopian Intelligence were upset that officers from SL were brought to Addis whiteout their knowledge.

Since this was a message to Hargeisa let me spell out.

Stop killing your youth for a war  that can't be won in someone else's homeland.  Are you waiting until the war comes to OOG? The battles of the last three days were not about capturing Laascaanood, but opening and securing the supply line with deadly results.

I know Muuse Biixi is delusional, but where are the others? Is this about chest bumping and hubris?

This war is already been lost. Please save your kids from destruction and save the meagre resources for water and health care.

Qoom markuu dumayo, balaayaa loo bidhbidhiyaa.

Ragow kibirka waa lagu kufaaye Kaa Ha la Ogaado.

Good analyses. To emphasise the point you raised re: locals and the terrain, according to generals of war, if the locals are against you, so is the terrain, then, you could not possibly hope to protect your soldiers, wounded or otherwise, or salvage hardware, let alone win the battle.

Let me add, this map is where the battle is taking place. Most action was in and around Laasa Daar yesterday, and Tuula Samakaab today, both of which are now SSC bases. Huftira & Wad are now the target, then Yagoori, and Guumays.

Dhoodida is the only accessible route, which is now being watched from NW.

Trouble is SL's reinforcement can no longer reach the front, and their injured are perishing in the wilderness.

 

[maakhiri1]

Very good analysis,  it is very simple, if locals are not with you, you can not win.

And no clan can rule another clan, that happen to Aidid and his militias in Bay and Bakool

[Che -Guevara]

The below video purportedly from Borama encapsulates Biixi's monumental failure as leader.

It's time for other clans to plan for post-Somaliland so they can live together peacefully and perhaps unite under one entity that's palatable to everybody so they can negotiate with Mogadishu on better terms.

 

[Game changer]

It's funny  galbeeedi and maakhiri are planning  to bring the war into their home regions, even though  it's not needed.   And here they are lecturing muuse biixi to stop the war in laascaanood.    I don't think somaliland can be defeated in Sool.  And eventually this is turning into full scale qabiil war .   

Galbeeedi   don't worry about us , worry about zeila and lughaya.  The djibouti based community are coming for their land while you are busy on backstabbing us.

Maakhiri, you overstayed erigavo.  Let's see if you have the balls to defend yourself.  

[maakhiri1]

52 minutes ago, Game changer said:

 

Maakhiri, you overstayed erigavo.  Let's see if you have the balls to defend yourself.  

What do you know about Erigavo? Go and check,  the blue flag flying high

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

what u gonne tell me puntland controls ceerigaabo now and there is a blue flag 

ceerigaabo is a durriyad down and had been for centuries

 

any way  as for laascanood Somaliland is winning this war yesteday the Somaliland army destroyed 30 of these terrorists and send them to their makers. this is the reality , Somaliland cannot be defeated on their own turf and that is for sure , muse is doing the right thing  he knows how to handle this situation the only losers are the garaad clan they allowd their land to be a battlefield and their homes to be destroyed, While bugland is buidlign their own land at the expense of the foolish garaad clan.

 

 

[Game changer]

Let's discuss about the reality.  When the problem reaches in your region beesha dhexe has  nothing to loose but  you will certainly loose parts of your land.  It's very predictable.   For your friend galbeedi   if he thinks he owns awdal I think he should think twice.   I understand sometimes peace is boring and he is looking for some trouble. I am sure he will get the trouble he is looking for .  But not  from the beesha dhexe !  Galbeedi can end up landlocked . 

1 hour ago, maakhiri1 said:

What do you know about Erigavo? Go and check,  the blue flag flying high

[Illyria]

4 hours ago, Game changer said:

Let's discuss about the reality.  When the problem reaches in your region beesha dhexe has  nothing to loose but  you will certainly loose parts of your land.  It's very predictable. 

In a nutshell, waxay meeraystaba, the beloved republic rests its rather cushy derriere, and hopes upon ' beesha dhexe has  nothing to loose '. Could we send a telegram to the old man Oodweyne to brief the urchins and eunuchs before they drag [it] down the drain to oblivion?

[Game changer]

2 hours ago, Illyria said:

In a nutshell, waxay meeraystaba, the beloved republic pegs rests its rather cushy derriere, and hopes upon ' beesha dhexe has  nothing to loose '. Could we send a telegram to the old man Oodweyne to brief the urchins and eunuchs before they drag [it] down the drain to oblivion?

We have absolutely nothing to loose , for years we have been protecting the minorities and empowering them, just to build an inclusive and progressive society.   From now on we Will take a different approach one that is based on the reality.   For example we won't try to keep the peace in sanaag in fact We are encouraging beesha dhexe to  take the  necessary steps against beesha maakhir.

Same Goes to galbeeed if needed.  Djiboutian visa requirements will be lifted.  We pay them to move in with  their AK47s  and they should never return.   Meanwhile in laascaanood  the war will continue for as long as we want.    we are fully turning into offensive  And this is More effective than what we have been doing for the last 3 decades.   In addition to that  Mogadishu is no longer an enemy state for us.  We are willing to cooperate with them against our common enemies. 

[Illyria]

56 minutes ago, Game changer said:

We have absolutely nothing to loose , for years we have been protecting the minorities and empowering them, just to build an inclusive and progressive society.   From now on we Will take a different approach one that is based on the reality.   For example we won't try to keep the peace in sanaag in fact We are encouraging beesha dhexe to  take the  necessary steps against beesha maakhir.

Same Goes to galbeeed if needed.  Djiboutian visa requirements will be lifted.  We pay them to move in with  their AK47s  and they should never return.   Meanwhile in laascaanood  the war will continue for as long as we want.    we are fully turning into offensive  And this is More effective than what we have been doing for the last 3 decades.   In addition to that  Mogadishu is no longer an enemy state for us.  We are willing to cooperate with them against our common enemies. 

Brilliant, I like your honesty, haddaad saaxiga keenteen. Now, we could discuss that which is in the best interest of Somalis. Since you are a bit behind the curve, with quite a bit of catching up to do in Somali politics, do bear in mind, your wishes are not always going to align with those of other groups, and when you come to that realisation, then you will have reached a pleasant plateau to engage your contemporaries in the theatre of politics. A giant step forward for our brethren in the beloved republic.

[Che -Guevara]

4 minutes ago, Illyria said:

Brilliant, I like your honesty, haddaad saaxiga keenteen. Now, we could discuss that which is in the best interest of Somalis. Since you are a bit behind the curve, with quite a bit of catching up to do in Somali politics, do bear in mind, your wishes are not always going to align with those if other groups, and when you come to that realisation, then you will have reached a pleasant plateau to engage your contemporaries in the theatre of politics. A giant step forward for our brethren in the beloved republic.

He thinks Xabadda only kills one group. It will take time for them to reach a comfortable conclusion just as Aidid did when his miscalculated attacks on Galkacayo failed. MJ and HG learned to live together though somewhat uneasily.

 

[Game changer]

23 minutes ago, Illyria said:

Brilliant, I like your honesty, haddaad saaxiga keenteen. Now, we could discuss that which is in the best interest of Somalis. Since you are a bit behind the curve, with quite a bit of catching up to do in Somali politics, do bear in mind, your wishes are not always going to align with those if other groups, and when you come to that realisation, then you will have reached a pleasant plateau to engage your contemporaries in the theatre of politics. A giant step forward for our brethren in the beloved republic.

Unlike other Somalis our intentions have always been clear , and transparent.  We are not good at hypocrisy.  And we don't pretend like we are doing good for Somalis.  When I say we can cooperate with Mogadishu it doesn't mean we are bringing somaliland back to xamar.  I actually mean we can work with calasaw and janaqaw just to prevent  qarjab and diini  to use Somalia resources against me.    Don't forget that we already have our 4.5 representatives , those will do the job. 

Western Sool is a  battlefield ,  sanaag capital will be exclusively for beesha dhexe , and the rest of the region will remain disputed.  Same like Somalia and puntland,  We can keep claiming places we Don't actually control.  The real somaliland is the   Beesha dhexe regions plus awdal.  The republic will grow stronger than  ever before and it will keep it's de facto status with Iron fist.  

[Game changer]

50 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

He thinks Xabadda only kills one group. It will take time for them to reach a comfortable conclusion just as Aidid did when his miscalculated attacks on Galkacayo failed. MJ and HG learned to live together though somewhat uneasily.

 

Those guys were both tired and broke.     But we have something called ciidanka qaranka.   A well organised, well funded  institution  that can wage war for ever.   We only  use the clans for Dirt works that we don't want our army to get involved.  In erigavo we will definitely use the clans.    In awdal it depends on galbeedi,  if he keep backstabbing beesha barakaysan.  We have  hyenas for him . If he behaves well so do we.   

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Dont worry about galbeedi ,, galbeedi and his folk will fall in line i am not worried about them   muj Abduramaan tuur approach was better in 1991 and muj Ahmed Mire , punish these remnants of afweyne ,  its bad that we took the appraoch of siilaanyo. No more koolkoolin hala kala baxo ,,  Karbaashka dhaco walaga sheekeyn doona the next coming decades. I am also glad that Somaliland is in the hands today  of the snm soldiers Brigrade  ,  the Militant leaders Ina kahin and ina biixi. And they will not take this issues lightly dagaalku ha socdo