Faroole man in Djibouti, HSM is losing, Dani will be back and Biixi is waiting for miracle.

[galbeedi]

With almost zero opposition and with the blessings of the sixth community (Beesha Lixaad), the stars seemed to be aligned for  Hassan Sheikh Mohamuud. We all jumped about the bandwagon of the war declared on Al-shabaab. We watched his globetrotting travels to gain support for his war plans and wished him for success.

 

All he needed was to stay on the message and seek the support and the goodwill of the Somali people. Yet, in this part of the world , the former leader is always better than the last one and HSM 2.0 is really worse than the first HSM of  2012-2016.He defeated a popular president and sidelined a dark horse from Puntland hell bent to take the whole thing without apologies. Some people would even insist that the man that was defeated in May 15 2022 election wasn't  Farmaajo but C/laahi Dani.

 

Two regional presidents from Jubbaland and Putland teamed up to defeat a fellow D block member. Many commentators in this forum had argued that that contest between Farmaajo and Deni and HSM wasn't about tribal groupings. It was pure power struggle. HSM with the work of Mohamed H. Rooble, Galmudug, Jubbaland, SNM Habro and others came on the top. Some had wrongly thought that HSM would rule with common sense and reach out others. To the surprise of everyone he had other plans.

 

I knew HSM was bitter before the elections due to the humiliations done to him by the Farmaajo lieutenants. They disbanded his demonstrations and even shot at him, they denied boarding planes at airports and so on. In return he spoke like a gangster who has no hope of becoming leader again. He disparaged the Eritrean government and their efforts to train soldiers, he called his sub clan for help, he encouraged regional leaders to reject the federal government. Lo and be hold he suddenly became the king again.

 

Rather than heal the wounds of the election, he put salt on it. here are some of the moves that results or will result in his future demise:

 

1- He created a rubber stamp cabinet and delegated their jobs to unelected allies. He hired his family members and clans for most of the pressing issues of day. His own daughter is not only the  senior adviser to the president, but almost every meeting with  foreign leader can't not take place without her presence. She might have even replaced the hapless foreign minister.

2- He went to Djibouti and formed an illegal tribal grouping without realizing  the consequences it might lead to . While the Somali tribal energy is a fuel that must be kept away from flammables, he ignited it with deadly results. If You were born and raised in southern Somalia it is difficult to gage the plots and conspiracies of people like Omar Geelle.

3- He declared war on Al-shabaab by relying to tribal muscle and empowered Sanbloolshe and company to take charge while sidelining the army leadership.

4-He hired Dahir Calasow as his adviser on tribal issues and even security matters.  To add insult to injury, he hired a small time Youtuber and political hacker as the auditor general of the nation in charge of government oversight and the financial control of the government.

5- He embarked record setting global travel landing four or five times in world capitals including Washington, Djibouti, Abu Dhabi, Kampala and other places, always his bowl in hand and begging.

 

His actions or inactions results small victories , but far more disasters for many regions across the country.

 

When the war in Hiiraan was progressing in the fall of 2022, I thought, I said that if this thing doesn't conclude in the new year expect big problems. We are well ware that  tribal energy can only be bushed as far as possible while the money is flowing and emotions are high. Consistency, discipline and ridding for the long haul isn't one of them. They have already exhausted and with no money in the pipeline , expect stalemate. There are even rumors that Mahad Salaad had made a clandestine agreements with Al-shbaab leadership to hold off bombing campaigns in the capital and offered them un return  to stop the offensive in Hiiraan and Shabeelle.

 

By joining Omar Geele and his corrupt family, HSM had put the country in a dangerous path. By cozying up with separatists and empowering the meddling of Omar Geelle in Somali affaires, he bitted more than he could chew. The war raging in Laascaanood is the result of the Djibouti meeting. By hiring a known gangster like Dahir Calsow who extorts money from people by illegally recording them through his gangs in Nairobi and other places, while inciting tribal, HSM had passed all decency. The desperate Hargeisa Maamul of Muuse Biixi even sent money for Calasow to arrange a fake grouping called Ir. Sa..le to help fend off the SSC campaign in Laascaanood with zero results other than few free loaders rooming Hargeisa for few days.

His record setting travel hasn't brought any meaningful support. He is jumping from one frying pan to another, from Dubai to Doha, from Kampala to Asmara with mixed results. Furthermore, the world bank had threatened to with hold money for future programs unless he fires the Youtuber he sent to deal international financial institutions.

 

His latest moves  to borrow money  from the world bank was put on conditions that require consensus among regional leaders. By acting as the leader of Banadir, HSM didn't expected any push backs from others. Long ago he decided to ignore anything north of Gaalkacayo to lowyacado. Since there is zero opposition in Mogadishu he ruled with decree while his daughter is supervising his moves. If I may, I have seen before leaders who surround themselves with family members. Usually it is two reasons: either for paranoia like Omar Geelle or illness. When Ahmed Siilaanyo suffered stroke in July 2010, he was sideline and all operations were transferred to close family friends. Hersi Gaab, his son in law Cawil Morgan and his wife took over. After he took power last summer HSM was seen with some bruises in his eye which some people said he might have fallen due to undisclosed decease. I am just wondering.

 

Laascaanood had changed the landscape.

 

War is always the great equalizer. Nothing will be the same after this. Few months ago the political landscape was deferent. C/laahi Dani was the loser and many people in Puntland were lining up to not only replace him but also humiliate him. The Puntland clan dynamics were simmering under the water and everyone kept their weapons just in case someone might move against them. Biixi was shooting peaceful demonstrations left and right in Hargeisa with deadly results. The opposition was beaten with bullets and intimidated. Rather than keep demonstrating until election is held, they gave up trying to fight another day. Who knows that might even come sooner than we expect. Both the opposition and the parliament had refused to find a way to prepare for a new leadership to tackle this life changing issue. This week he came and talked and talked like small dictator while women and free loaders were clubbing in the chamber. He didn't say anything that could bring peace or change the status quo.

 

After Laascaanood.

 

AS we speak the Somaliland army is pinned in Goojacade. The SSC is working to isolate and cut the supply line. No one understands the Somaliland goals anymore. The so-called British border is no longer attainable. They are not  in Tukaraq, Boocame, Talleex or in between. So why are they sieging a city that doesn't want anything to do  with Somaliland project. I used to watch in war movies about a general sacrificing his soldiers for defending a very small hill. Insiders told us that Biixi is waiting for  two things.

 

First , a third-party group to interfere and move his soldiers to a save place without threat coming from SSC. The East Burco community is refusing to accept this deal for fear of being attacked from the east.

 

The second option  is that since Puntland is the base and behind the scene backer of SSC it must be targeted. This plan is the brainchild of Omar Geelle  to replace Dani. Two results are expected from this move against C/laahi Dani. First,  to create chaos due to conflict among those who support Dani and a small group agitators  from Garoowe. A family member of the Faroole family was the guest of Omar Geelle last week and our Djiboutian friends had observed him in Kempeski Hotel in Djibouti. The second result is that if the first one is successful,the  plan is to finance the Faroole clan which is favorable with secessionists. The bullet fired from the Villa Somalia Masjid during Friday Qudba is part of the plot, but also had some personal interest from HSM government. Whatever the intension of HSM was, he failed miserably. On one hand he is begging Puntland to sign off to get the badly needed loan money from the world bank while trying to interfere with the Puntland election by backing the Faroole group horses..

 

By speaking the same language as the president, prime minister Hamza Barre had empowered Puntland as the biggest opposition of his government and a great obstacle than cannot be overcome. I don't blame premier Hamza for fully supporting his president, but he could have spoken in different tone. Sometimes, it is strategic to speak like a good cop and bad cop. He should have used a conciliatory language and then embark a trip to Garoowe to mend fences. This Hamza guy needs good advisers to find some balance in his office and that of the president. 

 

 C/laahi Dani was a lame duck and loser six months ago, but today he is not only  the  only leader capable of checking the unlimited power HSM had accumulated in Mogadishu, but the future challenger of the Damujaddid group. People in Puntland might not like Dani, but they hate like most of us the unholy evil alliance concocted in Djibouti which is totally against the interest of Somali people everywhere including Somaliland. The hapless secessionists do not realize that the biggest game in town in Djibouti is the port, and sidelining Berbera is the biggest one among them. 

 

Also, elections in Puntland means elections in Somalia within three years. The first year is gone, the next one probably will finish while chasing Al-shbaab in Hiiraan, and the fourth year is nothing but electioneering. What we have is two more years. By judging the outlook of the Somali people including those in Mogadishu, HSM and company couldn't win any election by one person one vote. Thus, Puntland could refuse the old ways election where elders choose members. HSM has a big dilemma. Yet, he has options. 

 

Dani should have pushed the democracy thing when he started in his first year before embarking his national campaign, yet most people in Puntland thing that getting rid of the system where 66 men selected by the elders must be retired for good. Besides, while first time elections are always challenge, the results fair and lead to enthusiasm among the public which is priceless. The best elections of Somaliland were the ones held in 2003 and 2005.  Mudug is on board, so is Bari and more than half of Garoowe. The only group agitating is the new " Unaka Leh" in Garoowe led by Faroole. I saw the Shire Abgaal fellow double talking. What he doesn't understand is that the prince can not be a king while the king is alive and kicking. He was close aid of Dani through the years, and his only chance is if Dani leaves the scene. I don't want to be unfair or anything but these guys from Garoowe , both Shire Abgaal and Cawad seem to be orphans or people that do not command good image. Besides, I never liked Faroole and company.

Folks, Laascaanood had changed a lot including Awdal. 

We are not willing to create a new Somaliland when SSC is out. This project is dead. It was dead man walking when they crowned the unrepentant warlord Muuse Biixi.

[Illyria]

1 hour ago, galbeedi said:

With almost zero opposition and with the blessings of the sixth community (Beesha Lixaad), the stars seemed to be aligned for  Hassan Sheikh Mohamuud. We all jumped about the bandwagon of the war declared on Al-shabaab. We watched his globetrotting travels to gain support for his war plans and wished him for success.

 

All he needed was to stay on the message and seek the support and the goodwill of the Somali people. Yet, in this part of the world , the former leader is always better than the last one and HSM 2.0 is really worse than the first HSM of  2012-2016.He defeated a popular president and sidelined a dark horse from Puntland hell bent to take the whole thing without apologies. Some people would even insist that the man that was defeated in May 15 2022 election wasn't  Farmaajo but C/laahi Dani.

 

Two regional presidents from Jubbaland and Putland teamed up to defeat a fellow D block member. Many commentators in this forum had argued that that contest between Farmaajo and Deni and HSM wasn't about tribal groupings. It was pure power struggle. HSM with the work of Mohamed H. Rooble, Galmudug, Jubbaland, SNM Habro and others came on the top. Some had wrongly thought that HSM would rule with common sense and reach out others. To the surprise of everyone he had other plans.

 

I knew HSM was bitter before the elections due to the humiliations done to him by the Farmaajo lieutenants. They disbanded his demonstrations and even shot at him, they denied boarding planes at airports and so on. In return he spoke like a gangster who has no hope of becoming leader again. He disparaged the Eritrean government and their efforts to train soldiers, he called his sub clan for help, he encouraged regional leaders to reject the federal government. Lo and be hold he suddenly became the king again.

 

Rather than heal the wounds of the election, he put salt on it. here are some of the moves that results or will result in his future demise:

 

1- He created a rubber stamp cabinet and delegated their jobs to unelected allies. He hired his family members and clans for most of the pressing issues of day. His own daughter is not only the  senior adviser to the president, but almost every meeting with  foreign leader can't not take place without her presence. She might have even replaced the hapless foreign minister.

2- He went to Djibouti and formed an illegal tribal grouping without realizing  the consequences it might lead to . While the Somali tribal energy is a fuel that must be kept away from flammables, he ignited it with deadly results. If You were born and raised in southern Somalia it is difficult to gage the plots and conspiracies of people like Omar Geelle.

3- He declared war on Al-shabaab by relying to tribal muscle and empowered Sanbloolshe and company to take charge while sidelining the army leadership.

4-He hired Dahir Calasow as his adviser on tribal issues and even security matters.  To add insult to injury, he hired a small time Youtuber and political hacker as the auditor general of the nation in charge of government oversight and the financial control of the government.

5- He embarked record setting global travel landing four or five times in world capitals including Washington, Djibouti, Abu Dhabi, Kampala and other places, always his bowl in hand and begging.

 

His actions or inactions results small victories , but far more disasters for many regions across the country.

 

When the war in Hiiraan was progressing in the fall of 2022, I thought, I said that if this thing doesn't conclude in the new year expect big problems. We are well ware that  tribal energy can only be bushed as far as possible while the money is flowing and emotions are high. Consistency, discipline and ridding for the long haul isn't one of them. They have already exhausted and with no money in the pipeline , expect stalemate. There are even rumors that Mahad Salaad had made a clandestine agreements with Al-shbaab leadership to hold off bombing campaigns in the capital and offered them un return  to stop the offensive in Hiiraan and Shabeelle.

 

By joining Omar Geele and his corrupt family, HSM had put the country in a dangerous path. By cozying up with separatists and empowering the meddling of Omar Geelle in Somali affaires, he bitted more than he could chew. The war raging in Laascaanood is the result of the Djibouti meeting. By hiring a known gangster like Dahir Calsow who extorts money from people by illegally recording them through his gangs in Nairobi and other places, while inciting tribal, HSM had passed all decency. The desperate Hargeisa Maamul of Muuse Biixi even sent money for Calasow to arrange a fake grouping called Ir. Sa..le to help fend off the SSC campaign in Laascaanood with zero results other than few free loaders rooming Hargeisa for few days.

His record setting travel hasn't brought any meaningful support. He is jumping from one frying pan to another, from Dubai to Doha, from Kampala to Asmara with mixed results. Furthermore, the world bank had threatened to with hold money for future programs unless he fires the Youtuber he sent to deal international financial institutions.

 

His latest moves  to borrow money  from the world bank was put on conditions that require consensus among regional leaders. By acting as the leader of Banadir, HSM didn't expected any push backs from others. Long ago he decided to ignore anything north of Gaalkacayo to lowyacado. Since there is zero opposition in Mogadishu he ruled with decree while his daughter is supervising his moves. If I may, I have seen before leaders who surround themselves with family members. Usually it is two reasons: either for paranoia like Omar Geelle or illness. When Ahmed Siilaanyo suffered stroke in July 2010, he was sideline and all operations were transferred to close family friends. Hersi Gaab, his son in law Cawil Morgan and his wife took over. After he took power last summer HSM was seen with some bruises in his eye which some people said he might have fallen due to undisclosed decease. I am just wondering.

 

Laascaanood had changed the landscape.

 

War is always the great equalizer. Nothing will be the same after this. Few months ago the political landscape was deferent. C/laahi Dani was the loser and many people in Puntland were lining up to not only replace him but also humiliate him. The Puntland clan dynamics were simmering under the water and everyone kept their weapons just in case someone might move against them. Biixi was shooting peaceful demonstrations left and right in Hargeisa with deadly results. The opposition was beaten with bullets and intimidated. Rather than keep demonstrating until election is held, they gave up trying to fight another day. Who knows that might even come sooner than we expect. Both the opposition and the parliament had refused to find a way to prepare for a new leadership to tackle this life changing issue. This week he came and talked and talked like small dictator while women and free loaders were clubbing in the chamber. He didn't say anything that could bring peace or change the status quo.

 

After Laascaanood.

 

AS we speak the Somaliland army is pinned in Goojacade. The SSC is working to isolate and cut the supply line. No one understands the Somaliland goals anymore. The so-called British border is no longer attainable. They are not  in Tukaraq, Boocame, Talleex or in between. So why are they sieging a city that doesn't want anything to do  with Somaliland project. I used to watch in war movies about a general sacrificing his soldiers for defending a very small hill. Insiders told us that Biixi is waiting for  two things.

 

First , a third-party group to interfere and move his soldiers to a save place without threat coming from SSC. The East Burco community is refusing to accept this deal for fear of being attacked from the east.

 

The second option  is that since Puntland is the base and behind the scene backer of SSC it must be targeted. This plan is the brainchild of Omar Geelle  to replace Dani. Two results are expected from this move against C/laahi Dani. First,  to create chaos due to conflict among those who support Dani and a small group agitators  from Garoowe. A family member of the Faroole family was the guest of Omar Geelle last week and our Djiboutian friends had observed him in Kempeski Hotel in Djibouti. The second result is that if the first one is successful,the  plan is to finance the Faroole clan which is favorable with secessionists. The bullet fired from the Villa Somalia Masjid during Friday Qudba is part of the plot, but also had some personal interest from HSM government. Whatever the intension of HSM was, he failed miserably. On one hand he is begging Puntland to sign off to get the badly needed loan money from the world bank while trying to interfere with the Puntland election by backing the Faroole group horses..

 

By speaking the same language as the president, prime minister Hamza Barre had empowered Puntland as the biggest opposition of his government and a great obstacle than cannot be overcome. I don't blame premier Hamza for fully supporting his president, but he could have spoken in different tone. Sometimes, it is strategic to speak like a good cop and bad cop. He should have used a conciliatory language and then embark a trip to Garoowe to mend fences. This Hamza guy needs good advisers to find some balance in his office and that of the president. 

 

 C/laahi Dani was a lame duck and loser six months ago, but today he is not only  the  only leader capable of checking the unlimited power HSM had accumulated in Mogadishu, but the future challenger of the Damujaddid group. People in Puntland might not like Dani, but they hate like most of us the unholy evil alliance concocted in Djibouti which is totally against the interest of Somali people everywhere including Somaliland. The hapless secessionists do not realize that the biggest game in town in Djibouti is the port, and sidelining Berbera is the biggest one among them. 

 

Also, elections in Puntland means elections in Somalia within three years. The first year is gone, the next one probably will finish while chasing Al-shbaab in Hiiraan, and the fourth year is nothing but electioneering. What we have is two more years. By judging the outlook of the Somali people including those in Mogadishu, HSM and company couldn't win any election by one person one vote. Thus, Puntland could refuse the old ways election where elders choose members. HSM has a big dilemma. Yet, he has options. 

 

Dani should have pushed the democracy thing when he started in his first year before embarking his national campaign, yet most people in Puntland thing that getting rid of the system where 66 men selected by the elders must be retired for good. Besides, while first time elections are always challenge, the results fair and lead to enthusiasm among the public which is priceless. The best elections of Somaliland were the ones held in 2003 and 2005.  Mudug is on board, so is Bari and more than half of Garoowe. The only group agitating is the new " Unaka Leh" in Garoowe led by Faroole. I saw the Shire Abgaal fellow double talking. What he doesn't understand is that the prince can not be a king while the king is alive and kicking. He was close aid of Dani through the years, and his only chance is if Dani leaves the scene. I don't want to be unfair or anything but these guys from Garoowe , both Shire Abgaal and Cawad seem to be orphans or people that do not command good image. Besides, I never liked Faroole and company.

Folks, Laascaanood had changed a lot including Awdal. 

We are not willing to create a new Somaliland when SSC is out. This project is dead. It was dead man walking when they crowned the unrepentant warlord Muuse Biixi.

Good analyses. While I ruminate, could you reflect on what is brewing in Ceerigaabo?

[galbeedi]

Ceerigaabo is a stronghold e between the Maakhiri and West Burco. They bitterly fought early nineteens. Today somehow both of them belong to the opposition, and it seems they are joining forces. If that is the case, Sanaag or most of Sanaag will leave the regime.

[galbeedi]

Sanaag is  40% Maakhiri, 35% West Burco, 15% East Burco and 5 % Garaad community.

If the first two agree as a coalition, no forces could stop. .By the way Sanaag is the biggest region and could be equal to Awdal, W.Galbeed and Togdheer combined.

[Illyria]

Those percentages are debatable, and I am familiar with how districts are divided, and the city is split, but my point is with conflict brewing all around from Awdal on the Western front to Sool on the South, and now Sanaag on the East, what is in store for the beloved Republic?

[Che -Guevara]

How far are reer Awdal willing to push for their rights and  for governance in local hands. Biixi dispatched Saylici and minions to calm down the youth. Will the youth listen to Hargeisa's yes men or come out in force and challenge heego?

[galbeedi]

Zaylici is in conflict with Biixi. The dispatched minions are no longer listened. The Awdal youth are ready. Judging from the diaspora movements, it has been decided that  negotiations with the regime will not bear any fruits. The late Calu Kjaliif AHN tried every thing. WE believe that a threat force is the only solutions,

I don't expect major conflicts in Borama city in the coming days, but the conflict will move to the countryside and roads connecting to  towns by late summer.

[jamacabdi265]

23 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

How far are reer Awdal willing to push for their rights and  for governance in local hands. Biixi dispatched Saylici and minions to calm down the youth. Will the youth listen to Hargeisa's yes men or come out in force and challenge heego?

Awdal wax weyn kama dhiciyaan, maha umad ama deegaan kacdoon, waxba ha ka dhageysan niicda huunada galbeedka. Kastuumo ama keeshali bluuga waligood Borama wa laga tolan jiray. Unacamleynta wa ka caado, Muusena wee la walaaqaniyeen qaska, boobka iyo baabinta dowladnimada. 

Laakinse beesha dhexe ayaa kaga dhoow oo iminkaba qarka u saaran. Berbera iyo Burco ayaa baryahanba wax ka karkariyeen.