Meet Ethiopia's new Prime Minister- Dr. Tewodros Adhanom

[Abtigiis]

It is increasingly looking like Meles will quit in 2010 along all of what he says 'the old guard'. He is a smart guy and wants to give the facade of a real change while still continuing his reign as the chairman of the ruling EPRDF party.

 

Insiders say Meles is busy picking loyalists and one name is coming up again and again. It is not a surprise that he will pick a Tigre as a successor but many people thought that man will be the former Addis Ababa mayor and current minister of public works - the young and handsome Arkebe Equabay. It now looks Meles is set to annoint the equally handsom current Minister of health, Dr. Tewodros Adhenom, who got most of his eduaction in Asmara.

 

This rules out speculations that Meles might go for other partner parties in the EPRDF, and not for the TPLF to pick very much a stooge. If from the Oromo parnters in the form of the Oromo People Democratic Party, the front runner would have been Girma Birru. If from the Amhara Nation Democractic Movement, it would have been the either the ailing Addis Legesse, the current deputy PM (a former Sport teacher in Asebe Taferi -200 Kms west of Dire dawa) or the demagogue Tafara Walwa, a powerful minister in the current government.

 

If this information, which is what insider's leaked to the media turns out to be true, then it will be intersting to see how much it will fuel the already fever-high hatred and disgust to the minority Tigre's who basically have taken every key position in the current government. Many people believe that even among the Tigre's, Meles's choice of Dr. Tewodros (a more academic than political person) ahead of the highly rated intellectual and politician Arkebe has to do with the latter's known degree of autonomous thinking. Such mentality of going his way put Arkebe in collision course with Meles when the former was the mayor of Addis Ababam, leading to his unceremonious 're-assigning'.

 

In any case, nothing will really change as long as the EPRDF is in place and we can very much expect the continuation of the policies and adventures of Meles after 2010, whoever comes to face the camera's as the new face.

[me]

Thanks for the update A&T.

[Dhubad.]

Salaan sare Jaale Abtigiis $ Tolka

 

Interesting, horta is it true that Zanaawi and his Tigre government is better for the Somali people in Ethiopia when compared to other groups like Amhara Nation Democractic Movement?

[Abtigiis]

Dhubad,

 

That falsehood had been spread like a wild fire that it almost is difficult to race after it. But, nothing could be further from the truth. Infact, no one has done mORE HARM and damage to the somali people than the Tigre's have done. I give you a comparative synopsis of what the succesive regimes had done to the somali people.

 

Under his imperial majesty, lion of Judah, Teferi Mekonin also knows as Hailesellasie, the somali's in Ethiopia were very much were oppressed just like the rest of other communities in Ethiopia were. The king appointed governors from the Axmaaro or other ethnic groups but mostly these people were supported by local Somali elders given different titles and material benefits. Save for some killings in Degahbour, Cayshaca and other areas, there were no large scale massacres. As far as governace is concerned, the whole country was semi-feudal state and the somali region lived the same fate as well. No development, no civil service and no much persecution as well.

 

The military Derg regime came to power and immediately went to war with Somalia. The people of the region were fighting along side their fellow somali's. Interstingly, after the war ended, the local populations by and large lived peacefully because most of their elites went to somalia and never wanted to continue a war of liberation. Maybe that has reduced the tension on the part of the regime, but there were no systematic killings. But there were many instances were people were killed simply because they were associated with Somalia. Much worse, most somali's did not have any opportunity, but this was also for most of the people in the country. In fact, somali's were spared from the bloody 'red terror' campaign where millions of other ethnic groups were killed.This time, governance was through appointed somali and non-somali officials, but local elders were at times consulted.

 

The Tigre's came and in 1991-1993, they promised all kinds of things, and relatively gave some powers to the somali's, but when the ONLF-led parliament decided to go one step ahead and asked for full independence all hell broke loose. They started to inplement a policy of dividing the somali's into "O" and "non-O" groups, effectively used Dr. Abdimajid to do this. Since then, the region is red by "Somali- faces" but real power is with "advisors" who are all Tigre's. There is no Self-governance at all, and in fact, save for Jigiga, all other districts are run by military commanders who are the final decision makers. Not much has changed beyond rethoric and symoblism.

 

Where things changed is that there are many somali's who are working as civil servants and to some extent people are getting education opportunities. This again is a windfall that has come for all people in Ethiopia in which the somali's are comparatively still on the disadavantaged side. Now, this slight improvement pales to insignificiance against the litany of injustice and massacre meted out against the people of ******, who are seen as campaigners of Somalia's 'expansionism'. Since 1994, over 20,000 people have been killed, more than 50,000 have been arrested,hundreds of thousands fled their homes and many villages were burnt. rape was used as a weapon and the sight of hunged youngesters in the streets of wardher , Dhagaxbuur, fiiq and other areas is common.

 

Now you tell me, or you ask any expert, and who has killed as much somali's.

 

The notion of "kuwanaa noo dhaama kuwii hore" is spread with people who clearly see the war as being fought between the TPLF and the Ogad.en people. Cheif among these tribalists is Mohamud Dirir who is a minister in the federal government. He is on record for saying "dawladani ******'ka unbay laysaa oo iyadaa noo roon". So, that assertion is correct or incorrect depending which definition of somalinimo we follow and depending on one's scope of thinking.

[Abtigiis]

Sorry for missing this part of the question. The Amhara Nation Democratic Movement is nothing but a condom of Meles. In case you didn't know, the ruling EPRDF is composed of

- TPLF (tigre)

- ANDM (supposedly Amhara's -laakin waa moahmed dheere iyo Cabdi qaybdiid style- ay Tigregu samaysteen si ay u yidhaahdaan qoomiyada kale ayaa nala haya talada

-OPDO ( led by a former prisnoer of war who is not a real Oromo - He is the current Oromia region president Abadula Gamada (whose real name is Minase Woldesamayat- a typical tigre name). He admits that Abdaulla is his name de gurre, but says he is still an Oromo.

- South Nations and Nationalities Democratic Party (led by Kassu Elala, a Gurage- these are from the various communities who live in the South, but still loyal to the Tigre's and not to their communities.)

 

I was talking about those. But if your question is will the real Axmaro oppoition in the form of CUD, Ginbot 7, EPPF and others do us more harm if they were to come to power, I think yes they could, although I think they probably can't do more harm than the Tigre's did. Thet are the same. But it is unlikely that the Axmaaro will come back to rule again if the Tigre's fall. They tigre's know what they did to them and will most likely let the Oromo's take Addis Ababa. I don't think the axmaaro can fight as one group because they are not organsied as the Tigre's and they also are disperesed. But they can mount a fight under the name of 'ethiopian unity' and given that most are fearful of the Oromos might be able to put up a fight. I think the oromo's will take Addis this time around. if so, the issue will be not about fighting oromo hegemony, but how to deal with them as they will try to annex somali areas that borer oromo lands. It is a different challenge, but the oromo's will keep the watch on bigger adversaries. I think we can than stand by the side and watch.

 

The end of the balkanization in Ethiopia, which will continue for some time, will usher the start of the unification of the Somali's with the motherland.

[Dhagax-Tuur]

It's like what Putin has done in Russian. Relinquished power, but not really. Running affairs behind the curtain. Clever.

[SayidSomal]

Mr Frequent name changer.

 

i agree Tigre's have commited henious crimes against the somalis in that region. and they are probably worst than any other regimes to have passed. but i felt reading that revisionist little history of yours - that you somewhat sugar coated the evils perpuptated by the regimes of the derg and the imperiliest - from uprooted whole sections of the area and settled with highlanders from the north - to actually enslaving the somali the communities.

 

we agree on none is better than the other - or more importantly nothing less the total freedom of our people.

[Dhubad.]

Thanks Abitigiis for the clarifications, its clear that Ethiopia is falling a part and I hope this time around ONLF will put together some sort of plan to fill the vacuum!

 

Ilaahay ha sahlo amuuraha

[BiLaaL]

AT, quite informative. Thank you.

 

Apart from the challenges posed by the mainstream parties you've highlighted above, do you have much info on the influence of guerilla / insurgent groups from the various ethnicities on Ethiopian politics. Apparently the increase in sophistication and tactics of these groups is the real reason behind Meles' call to change the old-guard. Do you share this view?

[Abtigiis]

Unfortunately the strength of the insurgent groups is not something that threatens the regime at least in the short run. The most organised is ONLF, followed by OLF. OLF are not causing any problems yet but can do so potentially. ONLF's issue is more or less a periphery nuisiance to the regime. The amxaara's has a small group of people fighting in the North called Ethiopian people's Patriotic Front (EPPF). There is even a gurilla group from the Tigray region, the Tigre People's Democratic Movement. TPDM is armed and supported by Eritrea and have ben aquite active on small scale. These are supporters of the splinter group from the TPLF after the end of Ethio-Eritrea war when several of the key party leaders were dismissed and arrested by Meles. There is also a tribal issue as most of the TPDM are from South Tigray and they oppose the domination of Adwa region (meles) and Adigrat (Siyoum Mesfin). Jilib jilib ayey isu haystaan, and the enemity is enormous. I mean the one-eyed hero of the Tigre liberationa nd the supreme ideologue Towlde (who basically used to give Meles letters so that he can read as a Prime minister) is still in prison. Former Tigary region president Gebru Asrat is in exile.

 

So, what really threatens the regime is not so much armed groups for now, but the division within the army, police and security forces. All are not Tigre's and most of those who came from the amhara and oromo nationalities are not loyal to the system. So if riots are to start in one area, fighting can erupt in Addis over night. This time, the fight will not be a protracted gurilla war where the rebels will gradually march to the capital.

 

Moreoover, it is becoming virtually impossible to rule the country for the Tigre's without instilling fear and without repression. The more they do so, the more others are getting fed up and the latest development is the call for arms by Ginbot 7 ( this is led by a gurage professor/who is an associate professor in one of the universities in America/)- Dr. Birhanu Nega. A unionist and from a super-rich family in Addis, his party CUD (which is outlawed now) won the elections in 2005, and he was elected mayor of Addis. Only to be arrested and charged with treason. He was later pardoned and fled abroad. He has a huge following, and the Amhara's love him.

 

By the way in terms of population size look here:

 

- Oromo - nearly 34 million

- Amhara - 28 million

- Gurage - 4 million

- Tigre - 3.5 million

- Somali - 4.5 million

 

The South region (where 45 various ethnic groups live) has a population of 13 million.

 

Political alliances:

- Oromos - with no one (kaligood)

- Amhara are very much allied with gurage and 75% of the southern people nearly 9 million will vote for Amhara's if free elections are conducted. Only Sidama's will not. Because Amhara's inter-marry and are assimilative, most Southererns who are christianised are in favor of them.

- Somali's - divided (Ogda.den fighting, the rest waxay iska ilaalinayaan Ogad.en hegemony)

- Tigre: are surviving because Amahra's and Oromos's are watching each other.

 

Ironically, despite being the undisputed majority, if free and fair elections were to be held in ETHIOPIA, I am sure the AMHARA willl win comfortably. They will get votes from Amhara,Gurage, Most of the Southern regions, Even Some Oromo's (the Shewa oromo -whoare all but Amharized), and some from each region by virute of assimilation. Only Dire Dawa town will give them more than 200,000 votes.

[BiLaaL]

AT, thanks for the follow-up. Fascinating review.

 

Our arch enemy has enumerable internal problems which any state can exploit. Our old leaders exploited this weakness in different ways but none did so to the extent they should have. Any future state of ours should pay more attention to the inner workings of this vast, weak, ungovernable state.

 

Instead of engaging in two wars with it ( one of which was unnecessary), we should have armed and supported the oppressed ethnic groups within - much like Eritrea has done to great affect.

 

Sure, it will take a long while before the desired effects materialize but it is less costly and more strategic. Over time, once we've built enough alliances within Ethiopia, we might even find ourselves with a friendly regime (or even better - one controlled from Mogadishu!) willing to work cooperatively with us on an equitable outcome to the Ogad'en issue.

[Duufaan]

The Oromo is two group which hate each other. The muslims which is about 70% do not have any power or influence and they will remain that way for long time to come. the suffering for muslim community will continue what ever political change in ethiopia and the ONLF luck of political skills will contribute.