Just like 1994, America is transferring Somali issues to Ethiopia, thus both SSC Garaads and Somaliland will be dictated for a resolutions.

[galbeedi]

If you refuse to talk to your brother to resolve issues, you will be accorded to the justices of the stranger.

 

Reliable sources indicate that the American government had decided to transfer the Somali problems in the region to Ethiopia just like Bill Clinton did in 1994. I am not talking only the Laascaanod issue, but almost everything. The Laascaanood clashes kept going for two weeks with no meaningful negotiations until the Americans by way of Ethiopia entered the scene. With hundreds of deaths from both sides,  two low level colonels from Ethiopia showed up and everyone jumped up. It was the SSC elders who clamored for outside powers to intervene, yet sometimes, you better be careful for what you wish.

 

The preliminary news coming from Addis Ababa indicate that the Laascaanood issues will be resolved in a way that is not desired by the players of the conflict. THose from SSC want Somaliland forces to vacate their tribal homeland up to Oog and later proclaim a regional state under the federal government. Somaliland want to pull the army in a near village and eventually resolve the Sool issue with Garaads by promising greater autonomy, but always under the umbrella of Somaliland government. None of the will get what they desire.

 

Well, you can't always get what you want.

 

The SSC Garaads would have better served if they have accepted a negotiation through Somalis, either by president Hassan Sheikh or elders. By accepting a foreign power to lead the negotiations, they opened the door for unknown results. 

 

Reliable sources say the idea of a regional state for SSC is non starter for Ethiopia, Somaliland and even the international community. The Ethiopian government had decided that the main reason of the conflict and the resolutions of the Laascaaood issu rests with leadership of Muuse Biixi. They believe that the removal of Muuse Biixi whose term already ended four months ago could be the biggest solution of the problem. Abiy Ahmed has already a grudge against Biixi after the later refused to fulfil the unity promises he made in Addis few years with Farmaajo and Abiy. They believe that a new flexible leadership from Somaliland could be a recipe for the Laascaanood conflict and the future negotiations with Somalia.

 

Five or six different groups had traveled to Addis or are their way to reach there soon.

 

The SSC Garaads.

Speaker C/rashiid Khallif by of Jigjiga to Addis

Somaliland elders who went to Sool.

The Somaliland opposition leadership.

Ugaas C/rashiid of the Greater Awdal community both in Ethiopa/Djibouti and Somaliland.

Boqor Buurmadow and his people.

 

Finally, Biixi will join them.  As I said the outcome of the coming Shir in Addis will be difficult to swallow for all involved. Most Somalis think of conflicts just an angry tribal skirmish that could be ignited without at any moment without thinking the consequences. Yet, after they create misery, death and destruction, they run to Addis or Nairobi to be baby sitted and given what they desired as a candy to children.

 

Here is the the tough pill to swallow for both.

 

For the SSC the Addis pill will very bad to swallow. Here is some:

 

First , the SSC will forget the so-called regional state. The guns will be silent, Somaliland will go some distance, the city will be calm and they will be waiting the outcome of the Somaliland internal change. In the meantime, there won't be any offensive from their side. The truth is after the early skirmishes, most of the offensive came from the SSC side to push back the Somaliland forces. The Ethiopians might send military observers to hold cease fire and the fragile peace. As soon as the guns became silent the booming business from Hargeisa, Bebera, Laascaanood and Garoowe will return. 

 

Second , it will difficult to tell those young men who sacrificed a lot to accept the status quo. In this scenario, there could an uprising between the Garaads and the fighters who are mobilized throughout the region including Puntland. Joining Puntland isn't an option for most of SSC.

 

For Somaliland the poison pill is mostly directed to Biixi.

 

He will be forced to vacate the former house of Morgan. For many in Hargeisa leaving Sool and returning to Oog is a disaster that will finish off Somaliland for good and bring the war to Hargeisa. That scenario will be delayed for now , but Somaliland will not be the same.  Top leadership of the Ethiopian government believe that the future economic development of the region depends infrastructure development, connections and trade in the Horn of Africa and will not accept a small tribe in the north to keep hostage of these future growth. Bebera, on the biggest ports in the region is empty. One might even ask, why the Emirates keep holding this huge port while doing some developments?. If there is no major international trade coming here, why hold it? I think they want to keep these ports for themselves while destabilizing others like Aden in Yemen. 

 

So, asoon as the leadership changes in Somaliland the negotiations with the south will begin in earnest. And that consolation will keep SSC to stay with this project. Remember, most of the demands of Khaatumo, especially from the camp of late leader Cali Khalif were to stay with Somalia and develop a credible system in Somaliland.

 

In conclusion, the guns will be silent, Somaliland will keep away from Laascaaood, Biixi will disappear from the scene, but there won't be any SSC regional government, but a city will be waiting changes from different powers in the region including HSN  and Hamza( Sheikh Cumar and Sheikh Shakir).

[Che -Guevara]

Galbeedi,

You overestimate Ethiopian power and underestimate Somali recklessness. There is no middle ground in this particular situation. Any solution will be temporary. The fundamental issue is secession.

 

[Che -Guevara]

The young men and women who stood up to the secessionists can't forget this.

 

[maakhiri1]

One thing for sure,  and from history,  which is driving Ethiopia and America,  is Somalis do not know how to negotiate. 

 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Galbeedi leaders in somaliland come and go but the somaliland republic remains  and that is sacrosanct. No Ethiopian or Kenyan can change that and president biixi never agreed  to abiye to unite with the koonfurians that’s absurd . Have u not seen the talks in 2020 in jabuuti hosted by the old man geele. One thing ur right the ssc state is a non starter for every one not in somaliland Ethiopia or puntland are interested in it . Though the hand of the Ethiopians is there but what makes u think people will listen to them what makes u think the Gãrââd and their terrorist allies would honer anything the Ethiopians say or demand 

 

[baala xoofto]

Somaliland wanted to meet with the Garaads inside Laascaanood. Or Djibouti. They turned down both options and instead wanted Addis Abeba. As if Addis Abeba is gonna make any difference. But if that is what they wished, so it shall be.

From Hargeisa side, the venue is not as important, what is important is to hold genuine talks with the Garaads with eye on preserving the borders as inherited from Great Britain on 26th June 1960. All other things are negotiable. 

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

1 hour ago, baala xoofto said:

From Hargeisa side, the venue is not as important, what is important is to hold genuine talks with the Garaads with eye on preserving the borders as inherited from Great Britain on 26th June 1960. 

 

I am afraid you are in for rude awakening.

[Illyria]

Too much pontification for my liking. On the SSC side, frogmarching SL militias unto their tribal demarcation shall settle the theorising.

[Tillamook]

3 hours ago, Illyria said:

Too much pontification for my liking. On the SSC side, frogmarching SL militias unto their tribal demarcation shall settle the theorising.

So what is the holdup?

Illyria, as Sool’s rep on this forum, you are beginning to sound like Baalo Xoofto & Co who on a daily basis in here attempt to mask their hopeless political predicament with frequent braggadocio, but yet their results are limited and effeminate.

Tell us when these riffraff h@bro militia will be cleansed from Sool?

[Illyria]

3 hours ago, Tillamook said:

So what is the holdup?

Illyria, as Sool’s rep on this forum, you are beginning to sound like Baalo Xoofto & Co who on a daily basis in here attempt to mask their hopeless political predicament with frequent braggadocio, but yet their results are limited and effeminate.

Tell us when these riffraff h@bro militia will be cleansed from Sool?

I agree, and as you said that, I was reminded of that the old saying 'Dariskaa mar ku diin, mar ku dayo, marna ka darow'. Let us just say, the continuous bravado gets to one. I shall refrain from now on.

On a serious note, Garaado want to minimise damage on both sides, with which I am in agreement, want to give negotiations a chance, whilst Commanders are putting final touches to their battle plan. According to the commanders, they have got more than the necessary muscle to frogmarch what is left of SL militias to Oog, and farther afield, but are listening to Garaado. Without divulging much, they are trying to avoid conflict amongst the ranks, and have the politics, diplomacy, and military efforts in sync.

[Tillamook]

4 hours ago, Illyria said:

I agree, and as you said that, I was reminded of that the old saying 'Dariskaa mar ku diin, mar ku dayo, marna ka darow'. Let us just say, the continuous bravado gets to one. I shall refrain from now on.

On a serious note, Garaado want to minimise damage on both sides, with which I am in agreement, want to give negotiations a chance, whilst Commanders are putting final touches to their battle plan. According to the commanders, they have got more than the necessary muscle to frogmarch what is left of SL militias to Oog, and farther afield, but are listening to Garaado. Without divulging much, they are trying to avoid conflict amongst the ranks, and have the politics, diplomacy, and military efforts in sync.

Forgive the manifestation of my unmistakable signs of impatience.

There is wisdom in that approach and their judgment is well buttressed by the need for strong institutions in SSC.

[Che -Guevara]

26 minutes ago, Tillamook said:

Forgive the manifestation of my unmistakable signs of impatience.

There is wisdom in that approach and their judgment is well buttressed by the need for strong institutions in SSC.

Time is of the essence. Garaads should take advantage of the people's goodwill and support while the iron is hot. Prolonged negotiations will weaken them.

More importantly, it is always a bad idea to have that many well armed young men in one place with nothing to do.

Illyria seems to be in the know

[maakhiri1]

Sun Tzu, the highest victory is defeating the enemy without even fighting.

SSC is winning,  and winning friends as well .

 

[Khadafi]

Galbeedi the analysis would have been good if Ethiopia was in the state of of the Ethiopia we knew. The days when the shrewd murderous Meles and his weyane  would dictate to Somalis and sent invitation to somali factions to sit in his yellow couch. 

 

Those days are gone my friend. Ethiopia is in state of oromisation and dis-integration.  The noble adwa celebration that Ethiopians, mainly amharas would amass to the statue of Menelik is long gone. I dont know if you received news but oromo activists after dividing the orthodox church into a oromo  and amhara one refused to indulge in the adwa celebrations and 4 people died. Even Abey Ahmed in order to appease the growing power thirst of the oromos declined to come to the celebrations. Who would imagine that, an ethiopian ruler silently agreeing with that menelik was indeed a criminal who chopped of the breasts of oromos.  He chose not to  come to the amhara celebration.  

Meles and the TPLF did somalis a favours, by  creating a yuguslavia scenario  with pre-planned ethnic federation  that have somewhat saved Somalis from the fury of a strong Amhara centric nationalistic ethiopia that even refused the existense of muslims in the lands of Habasha. We have saying in the southern heart lands of Somalia. Nin tiiisa haysta too kale ma arko.

[maakhiri1]

Dhegdheer dhimatey!!  Ethiopia of Melez is gone, if Muuse doesn't make quick decision,  and get out 10000 militias will march to Burco