Britian makes the final move - governance is here

[General Duke]

Warbixin: Dowlada Ingriiska oo golaha qaramada midoobay hordhigtay qaraar lagu soo afjarayo mashaqada ka taagan Somaliya

Posted to the MOL April 24, 2008, 8:26 am

 

Dowladda Ingriiska, ayaa maanta qaraar aad muhiim u ah u qaybisay golaha Qaramada Midoobay, kaasoo ku wajahan in ay Qaramada Midoobay xafiiskeeda siyaasadeed ee Soomaaliya ka soo rarto wadanka Kenya una soo wareejiso gudaha wadanka Somaliya si beesha caalamku qayb muuqata uga qaadato dadaalada midowga Afrika ee lagu doonayo in in la soo celiyo nabadda iyo kala dambeynta wadanka Somaliya looguna googol xaaro sidii qaramada midoobay ciidamo ka socda ugala wareegi lahaayeen kuwa midowga Afrika howlaha nabad illaalinta.

Qaraarkaan ay soo saartay dowlada Ingriisku ayaa ka dambeeyay xaalada nabadgalyo iyo mida bini'aadaminimo ee wadanka Somaliya oo aad u sii xumaatay bilihii la soo dhaafay.

 

Dowlada Ingriiska ayaa waxay ku baaqday in dowladaha beesha caalamku bixiyaan dhaqaale, ciidamo iyo qalab lagu taageero ciidmada Afrika eek u sugan Somaliya oo howlaha dhaqaale la’aantu waxyeelo u gaystay inay qabtaan howlo wax ku oola.

Qoraarka ay soo saartay dowladu Ingriisku wuxuu kaloo ku baaqayaa QM ay u howlgalaan sidii ay u diyaarin lahaayeen in afti xor ah laga qaado dadka Somaliyeed si loo dhiso dowlad lagu kalsoon yahay iyo in laga caawiyo Somalida in la qoro dastuur cusub.

 

Qaraarkaan oo ah mid dhinacyo taabanaya wuxuu sidoo kale sheegay in golaha qaramada Midoobay ku talo jiro in talaabo laga qaado cidkasta oo doonaysay inay ka hortimaado howlaha ciidamada Midowga Afrika ee ka howlgala Somaliya, howlaha ay’adaha dowlada KMG ah iyo dadaalada beesha caalamka. Waxaana la la soo qori doonaa magacyada shaqsiyaadka hortaagan howlaha dib u heshiisiinta iyo nabadeynta wadanka SOmaliya.

 

Qaraarkaan dowlada Ingriiska ayaa ku soo beegmay xili dhowr dowladood oo waaweyn oo ay ka midyihiin dowlada faransiiska, Maraykanka iyo Spain ay asbuucaan ka baaqeen in wax laga qabto nabadgalyo xumida ka jirta Somalia. Arimahaan oo dhan ayaa muujinaya in beesha caalmku iminka u soo jeesatay inay wax ka qabtaan dhibaatada ka taagan Somaliya ee aadka u daba dheeraatay.

 

Mudugonline.com

[General Duke]

The clan militia and warlords defeat and creation of TFG was the first move.

 

Moving the NGO's and UN agencies into Somalia and out of Nairobi is the final move to restoring the state.

 

Its great news hope the UN security council passes it.

[Baashi]

It is dog eat dog and ya know it. With the Tigre might and unqualified support from the West, TFG personnel are unable to secure Benadir. What's giving them all that headache? Surely, the invisible hand that rendered all these powers ineffective and put them on the defensive are force to be reckon with. Intelligent man would acknowledge the obvious.

 

What you got is a "government" at war with its people. An entity that solicits the protection of the country's historical regional rival (there's a laundry list of unfinished biz btw the two states) in order to survive a day. An entity that needs protection from its own people.

 

Easy with the spin awoowe. The old, polarizing, and unintiated (in the matters of peace and stability) Yussuf needs to understand that you can't humiliate sizable portion of the Somali population into submission.

 

He needs to hear from close quarters that he is part of the problem. He needs to be told that the future and well being of Somalis is bigger than personalities.

 

The man needs some serious councelling not cheerleaders who shout his praises at the top of their lungs. He needs folks who can talk truth to power (relative).

 

What had transpired in Benadir is a tragedy and not a win for one side of the divide. I want you to know that buddy.

[General Duke]

Bashi I disagree entirely with your argument old man. The TFG is facing a great problem because it is trying to rebuild a nation from scratch, nation building has never been easy and even the great powers have never truly mastered it.

 

The TFG is not fighting its “people” I would say the great majority of Somali’s are not at all hostile to governance, they have been robbed of their voice and dignity over the past 17 years by armed groups who through the gun seem to think they speak for everyone.

 

This government greatest enemy was never the Somali armed factions but the powerful rich and resourceful NGO’s who in Nairobi have composed the many songs that the Somali’s sing in their poverty. Combine this with a young nation, unemployed, uneducated and who have no idea what law and order is and its remarkable the road we have traveled.

 

Mogadishu’s militia have defeated many a “transitional government”, even chased out the US and the UN and yet they have been unable to shake this “weak TFG” with the support of the poor Ethiopians and the AU.

 

Now aside from the hype, the government has continued to consolidate its power, even its enemies are now ready to compete in the 2009 elections because they have no other choice. Thus yes the TFG has not disarmed everyone and created a secure, confident government. But it has put in place the foundations for restoring the state.

 

Also Bahsi, when Siyad Barre was defeated and chased out of Mogadishu, did he just disappear? Was it over in a year, did Morgan disappear, or Aydeed defeat of Ali Mahdi make that man history?

 

History highlights that well organized groups tend to decline slowly over time and the armed clan groups of Mogadishu have started to decline their great days are over, like Siyad, Aydeed, Mahdi and their militias so will the fake Abu hebels disappear. Its just a fad, the TFG is not very popular nor fashionable but no government ever is.

[Baashi]

Lieutenant Duke,

The trouble with your argument is that you are assuming nation building is the bone of contention here. I disagree with that line. It is not as if one side of the divide is saying let’s rebuild the country and restore law and order and live again and the other side is tsrongly and violently objecting to jobs and all the pork barrel that comes with the reconstruction. It would be comical outburst to say that all those who oppose TFG do so because they abhor law and order and the normalcy and peace that comes with inaugurating a just government.

 

TFG is fighting its own people and it is doing so with the help of historical enemy. Certainly not the great majority of Somalis are actively campaigning against TFG now but great majority of the region (Benadir) are either undermining TFG quietly by not helping them or sizable of the residents are actively doing what they can to see TFG fail in its endeavor.

 

I don’t see the connection with NGOs. How do the NGOs come into play here young man? I’m sure they are difficult bunch to be silenced by TFG in speaking out the atrocities committed against the civilians in retaliation drills that seem to punish the whole neighborhoods that fail to act as spies for TFG or are unable to bring in the culprits. But other than that I fail to see where you’re going with this NGO thing.

 

Having said that I fully agree with you on the fact that there are handful of personalities and their supporters who see reconciled Somalis -- where looted properties issue are addressed -- as a losing proposition and anathema to their clannish interests. They paid a huge price in both blood and treasure to redistrict Benadir and Lower Shabelle and any effort to undo that campaign is obviously pretty upsetting to them.

 

Well. We are really on the opposite side of the spectrum on this. Government if you wanna call it that is fully dependent on foreign power and allegiance of the coalition of convenience (certain clans). It has broken the back of its competitors in a very big way but other than that it has not forwarded the ball from the goalie corner.

 

You used Barre analogy. Upon losing the control of the National Army (bases, ammunition, arsenal, trained personnel) Siyad knew there was no going back but he also understood that the fighting was not over yet and his head is the price the opposition wanted to have. So he went on the offensive and lost it.

 

The point is the analogy you are drawing here is not applicable. Yes clan militias do fade away over time. Yes it takes time to heal the wounds and soothe the broken spirits. But the trouble with that line is you are not talking about reconciliation and peaceful settlement of the conflict which is the prerequisite of what you are alluding to. You are talking about defeating the other side which has to be total and complete to be successful. I don’t think that would happen any time soon.

 

History highlights that oppression and force don’t bring about lasting peace. History also shows that the armed groups in Bendair has been given new cause in (Islam & nationalism) which to rally the troops around.

 

I leave you with this food of thought: do you by any chance consider the possibility that there are genuine Somalis who deep down believe in the supremacy of Islam and want to compete with other special interest groups in leading the post-conflict Somalia?

 

Has it occur to you that one of the reasons Melez and Neocons support TFG is to prevent that group to seize power in post-conflict Somalia?

 

You see this is a pretty important region (close to oil reserves and part of extremely important international waters -- global trade can be disrupted from Northern Somalia with snap!), Islam has replaced Communism as “the” new ideology West must defeat, Ethiopia is regional power and is very much interested in seeing the post-conflict Somalia controlled by friendly regime that doesn’t threaten its territorial integrity or its interest in the region, and the game is three dimensional game!

 

Awoowe convergence of all these divergent domestic, regional, and international interests is contributing to the Somali conflict in one way or another. It is miracle we have survived this long.

 

Col Yussuf has a choice to make: declare that he is going to step down from the podium with a little caveat and he will have Tigre pack their bags with one strong and firm condition: complete resolution to all outstanding issues paramount among them negotiated peace and negotiated power-sharing scheme.

 

Have him use ‘trust but verify’ as safety net he can fall back on just in case his goodwill gesture is not taken up.

[General Duke]

Bashi, either you ignore reality or don’t understand the facts on the ground.

This government and it is one weak as it may be is not fighting its people.

 

Who are these “people” ?the hired guns of Mogadishu, its mercahant and the former big bosses of lower Shabbele and Kismayu hardly constitute the “people”. As you are aware mayhem can be caused by small arms and trained groups, combine this with naïve or even criminal outsiders and you do have a “resistance” but to say they represent any people is too fool not just outsiders but one self.

 

Indeed this group wants no governenment other than the one they make and the one that represettns the clan interest. Even this Courts group if we look at their actions over the seven months, they never created a single admin, not even in Mogadishu what you had was a constant battle which kept consolidated the clans military power.

 

This courts thing was a single clan movement that wanted to subjugate everyone else using the faith all th while never applying the universal justice of Islam on its own rotten foundation. There is no difference between Xasan dahir, Qaynayre, Ahmed Diriye. They are all benefactors of the 1991 clan war. They do not want a 4.5 formula or any other one that does not give them their “rightful” and militarily earned place at the top of the food chain.

These and to a small extent the secessionist are the groups the government is at war with. Again hardly the “people” of Somalia.

Anyhow what I find amusing is when people actually believe these people are fighting for “Islam” , I love the fact that they saw the light after October 2004 and before then they were happy sharing their spoils with their brothers the warlords.

 

We are indeed in polar positions you and I, I see Yusuf and his actions as temporary need to defuse the power of these groups and end the days of the all “powerful clan militia”. You are talking about power sharing, who does one share power with?

 

Somalia has been through a 17 years civil war period anyone who thought things would become better overnight, is delusional, this is long struggle and the job is part done. You mentioned Ethiopia as a historical enemy, but why should we be held hostage to history, this Ethiopia is as new as the Somalia we are creating. As the adage says beggars can not be choosers, is it not ironic that Melez & Aferwarki were historical allies?

 

Now our interest and that of Somalia is served by restoring governance, Yusuf being the bogeyman for every lazy intellectual or wannabe nationalist has chartered a course that in the end is justified and right. Mandela was a terrorist, Ghandi the "Naked Fhakir" thus history is seldom written in the present.

 

As for the NGO’s, you really don’t understand why they are in the picture? Then my brother you are a mere corporal, a conscript for the Al-Kebaab group.. lol