Laascaanood will be another frozen conflict, says Somaliland analyst.

[galbeedi]

The heavy coverage of the Laascaanood conflict seem to be subsiding these days with no major movements fron the fronts. While we mainly cover the Laascaanod side of the conflict due to the unjust bombardment of Somalialand forces to the civilian infrastructure, it is important to hear from the other side. By that, I don't mean talking to the unhinged and out of touch guys like our own Oodweyne and Xaaji Xanjuf types . but others who are more or less neutral and always side to the peace due to stakes they have in Somaliland,

 

So, I did talk to a guy who hails originally from Awdal, but born and raised in Hargeisa. He had relocated from the diaspora, built a house and moved his family back home. So, I asked him both the conflict, Hargeisa politics and the future according to his personal experience. 

 

Galbeedi: What did you hear from Somaliland about the war in Laascaanood  these days since you have extensive family connection in Hargeisa and beyond?

 

Somaliland Guy: We are at the end of the conflict and within days things will get quiet.

 

Galbeedi: What makes you think like that? today was the 14th day of the war and the guns are still roaring from both sides.

 

Somaliland  guy: Somaliland might claim this to be a war between the state and  Reer Sool, but as most Somali conflicts had shown, it just another clan conflict, and these kinds of wars last mostly four to six weeks maximum. By now the Sool forces might have dwindling stocks of ammunition and soon they might run out of bullets. Furthermore, for the last decades,  most Somali conflicts conclude in a stalemate. No one is defeated completely which is the main reason national governments failed to take real shape of governing.

 

Galbeedi: Most people believe that the only way this war will end could be the relocation of the forces from Laascaanood especially the Somaliland forces. 

 

S.Guy: Despite the importance of the Laascaanood conflict, no major war has taken place so far. Sooner or later these forces will  move away from each other, but it all depends about the actions of Garaad community forces who are loyal to Somaliland.

 

Galbeedi: I thought everyone said that most of the Garaad community forces allied with Somaliland had already moves and joined the local forces.

 

S.Guy: No, that is not totally true. THere are still well armed Garaad community forces led by colonel Mahad Cambaashe and others who are not involved in the shelling of the city, but who are in stand by mood at the moment. Everyone knows that he has the most mechanized units among Somaliland forces in the area.

 

Galbeedi: what do you mean by stand by? are they waiting orders?

 

S.Guy: No, unlike many people,  there is no major confrontations now. The locals try to push the Somaliland forces away as much as possible, yet despite some movements in Some fronts, everyone is around Laascaanood. Colonel Camaashe is waiting how the political moves take place and like everyone he is " Wait and see mood". So, he isn't risking much and he sees the Somaliland side as only defending themselves. What we are hearing from people in Hargeisa is that Somaliland hasn't used its power so far including its allies in Sool.

 

Galbeedi: So, what is the next move? We have seen Muuse Biixi is in disarray by issuing false and conflicting statements?

 

S.Guy: He doesn't have the ears of the Garaads in Laascaanood, and the ministers he sent to Laascaanood had failed to resolve anything. It is the speaker of the parliament who is talking to the Garaads and he is sending conflicting messages to Muuse Biixi in order to score political points. Furthermore, Biixi closed the doors of the elders five years ago and they both don't trust each other.

 

Galbeedi: Do the elders had the capacity to resolve the issue a this moment after the destruction of the city and the bad blood between the two?

 

S.Guy: The Somaliland elders had been sidelined by Muuse for a long time, and the only things these guys have mastered is how to milk cash from the government. They will create an enterprise that will feed both elders from Laascaanood and Hargeisa, they understand each other more than we think  and the  issue is moving to the elders and the back and forth will continue. At the end the Somaliland forces will move away from the city by some distance , we don't know how many kilometers, or permanently move to Adhicadeeye.

 

Galbeedi: After the relocation, what could be next?

 

S.Guy: Well, It will be like any other frozen conflict in the region. The recriminations and the squabbling will move to Laascaanood and Hargeisa. The Sool community will face each other for good and no one knows how their debate will take shape. But the bigger debate will take place in Hargeisa.

 

Galbeedi: Is the opposition demanding elections as usual?

 

S.Guy: Waddani is trying to ride the Laascaanood conflict, but they had already failed big time and the more these things go on,  Biixi will stay and make sure both WAddani and UCID are two parties among the dozen.

 

Galbeedi: Personally, I think Waddani has gained some respect in Sool region and other places by being alternative to Biixi in war and peace.

 

S.Guy: This Cirro guy is always one day late and short one dollar. As soon as the uprising of the city begun, he could have jumped and landed in Laascaanood to reassure people and become the point man by sidelining Biixi and taking charge of the issues, but as usual, he was weak and went hiding. Finally, when he saw the statements of the Americans and international community he decided to come forward and ask few guys (Mohamed Abiib, Ina Galaal, Barkhad Batuun)  to make strong statements. He could aggravate the issue as much as he wants, but the three-party election is finished. The first election will be among all parties.

 

Galbeedi: So , did you the tensions going high in Hargeisa?

 

S.Guy: nothing will be the same after Laascaanood. This whole project has to be re-evaluated totally. Hargeisa seems to be how Mogadishu was in 1988. The corruption is out of bounds, the wrong doing, the injustice, the looting, the clan animosity, the greed has surpassed any limits. The decent people stay away from the government, and only the losers, the swindlers and the worst among society join the government. The millionaire guy who isn't hungry is selling expired medicine, yet he is ahead of you at first line in the Masjid. Furthermore, no one trusts anyone. The good news is still there are some good people in Somaliland who might repair the ship.

 

Galbeedi: Do you see any elections taking place?

 

S.Guy: No at the moment. In this kind of environment elections will create instablity in Somaliland. The opposition is so hungry and in the recent Somali politics, tribes do not give way to others but keep them down until the end. Some will tell you that many projects, including the Somaliland one,  will probably end thanks to the demise of TPLF. With the incoming econmic integration of the horn, it will be difficult to sustain isolation.

 

Galbeedi: Did you see any nig moves from the region lately?

 

S.Guy: The Abiy Ahmed led integration was stalled by the Ethiopian war and by Kenya which had misgivings about Ethiopia. Now Eritrea, Kenya and Ethiopia are the same page. HSM has no choice but to join, and Djibouti couldn't stop the train. 

 

Galbeedi: Did you see HSM winning the war against Al-Shbaab?

 

S.Guy: No. HSM waging war against Al-shbaab is false. After the invasion of Al-shbaab from south west , Ethiopia had realized that these forces havd crossed from Hiiraan and posed a direct threat for the first time. THey called Laftagaren and the governor of Hiiraan, not the Hir-Shabeelle leader. They decided to eliminate the threat from Hiiraan and tapped Cali Jayte and Sanbloolshe to lead the effort. It is an Ethiopian ptoject which asked the Americans for air cover to clear the border area. The munitions were provided by Ethiopia and soon will end. Furthermore, I don't believe that the southern elites don't understand or are willing to pay the sacrifices to build state which is much bigger than money or personal gain. He got 5,000 men from Eritrea, yet he decided to arm clans and that tells me everything.

 

Galbeedi: I see, but they had made some success so far, don't you think?

 

S.Guy: Time will tell, but judging the way things are moving, we will be talking about Hiiraan the same time next year. Also, here we are talking about one clan waging war and taking credit while a large number of other clans  Hiiraan  are either on the fence or fighting with Al-shbaab. Here I see one clan thinking they are Hiiraan and that will end in disaster. Furthermore, that clan will be working soon  to separate Hiiraan from Hir-shabeele peobably insitigated by none other than Sanbloolshe.

 

Let us leave it there.

 

[Che -Guevara]

Galbeedi,

Your friend is mistaken. He, like some secessionists, are under the illusion Biixi is holding back. The truth is he is not. His forces were simply chased out hence they resorted to shelling. More importantly, his forces are losing officers and the youngsters doing the actual fighting are not well trained. Cambaashe is not really sitting on the sidelines. He simply has no forces. His men abandoned him the moment Biixi's boys started shelling the city and as soon as Garaad Jama Garaad Ismail made his views clear.

More and more fighters have been  pouring into Las Anod.  Of course, reer Sool's resources are finite, but so is Hargeisa's. But wars always favor locals in the end.

 

[Che -Guevara]

P.s.

As we speak, another day of heavy fighting has commenced on the outskirts of the city. This is day 16th.

[Illyria]

Your friend might be adorning dim shades with his viewing matters through a prism of doom and gloom.

A couple of differing points:
a) Ina Cambaashe is in poor healthy, and have lost most of his militia to  "Fool-H*wiye" & "Dhegaweyne", who made up the other pillar of the then alliance. Outside of Gooja-cadde & Tukeraq, SL militia is almost non-existent, and once a scheduled wave of SSC militia attacks commence, the threat landscape, and by extension reality on the ground, shall look much different from Hargeysa through the said prism.

The greatest fear of those closest to the inner Sool circle, and the only way the status quo could remain so, is if there is a split amongst the Garaado with ina Garaad Ismaciil doing what he always does, ina Garaad Cali reverting to his old ways, and the rest doing what they usually do. I know that is saying something, and not saying much, but there you have it.  

b) With respect to Xasan Sh, the misguided Al shabab campaign was never his then, and has no plan now. Like the Taliban, Al shabab is doing what they always do: hibernate a little waiting out till the brouhaha subsides, only to return to take over; they have already made a return to districts in Hiran just outside of Beledweyn. From what I have seen in Xamar, life is as good as it could have been, and no one wants, or cares if Al shabab is gone, or not.  In other words, this is just a a rehearsal for a show, which was never intended for the big screen.

[Illyria]

25 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

Galbeedi,

Your friend is mistaken. He, like some secessionists, are under the illusion Biixi is holding back. The truth is he is not. His forces were simply chased out hence they resorted to shelling. More importantly, his forces are losing officers and the youngsters doing the actual fighting are not well trained. Cambaashe is not really sitting on the sidelines. He simply has no forces. His men abandoned him the moment Biixi's boys started shelling the city and as soon as Garaad Jama Garaad Ismail made his views clear.

More and more fighters have been  pouring into Las Anod.  Of course, reer Sool's resources are finite, but so is Hargeisa's. But wars always favor locals in the end.

 

I would concur.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Somaliland military has this morning captured over 22 terrorist as Maxaabis that is the latest.  Things are moving forward really and yes the president is holding down and doesn’t want the city to be destroyed thst is why he is holding back

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

Ciidamadda Somaliland oo saddex jiho ka weeraray magaalada Laascaanood

WWW.JOWHAR.COM

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Feb. 21 (Jowhar.com-Wararka naga soo gaaraya magaalada Laascaanood ee xarunta gobolka Sool ayaa sheegaya inuu halkaasi ka socdo...

 

[baala xoofto]

Frozen conflict LOL

Somaliland's strategy is working just fine. They wanted for Somaliland to go into street fights and cause collateral damage in the process. However, the defensive strategy to exhaust them out and also pound them hard when necessary is just working fine. 

This strategy coupled with the Olive branch on the other hand has taken all the oxygen from the anti-peace elements. 

They are now powerless and becoming irrelevant.

Which is why they are crying for AMISom troops to be deployed. Little do they know that AMISom is not a service you just call up and it comes to you. 

But what this shows is that, they are at the end of their FAAFO cycle. 

 

 

[galbeedi]

2 minutes ago, baala xoofto said:

This strategy coupled with the Olive branch on the other hand has taken all the oxygen from the anti-peace elements

Then why a full attack today?

In fact, today's war was the heaviest ever. Before there were skirmishes and shelling, but today,  close to a brigade from Somaliland attacked Laascaanood to take over the city and overwhelm the defenders. It was a real war with Ak47 and machine with thousands of men participating ( Gacan baa la isla tagay dagaalka maanta). Muuse Biixi wanted to crush the Laascaanood resistance and occupy the city before the visit of the American ambassador to Hargeisa and claim to be fighting terrorists.

Reliable sources say that the Somaliland forces have been repulsed and defeated with heavy loses. I have been told that the Garaad community members from Puntland BSF who left Boosaaso and others who were formerly trained with Danab forces who have higher fighting experience than the usual militia had inflicted the biggest damage to Somaliland.

More than anything Somaliland lost the messaging and the reason they are fighting in Sool. The message of the Laascaanood people is simple, relatable and understandable. They say," We are caucusing to decide for our future; we will negotiate when the gun on our head (Somaliland forces) are removed from our town".

And what Somaliland say. "Laascaanood people are Somaliland but they have been taken over by terrorists; we will resolve the issue with negotiations but we have to shell the town to defend the forces; we are sent elders yesterday, but today will not leave the city". It is confusing and misleading. No wonder the whole Somali world is siding with Laascaanood.

 

 

[maakhiri1]

Galbeedi, no idea , how, or  where they getting ,  SSC, they will not run out ammunition and are very motivated. This was what SL thinking, that they will run out of ammunition . there is large group of SSC, well trained, part of the federal government, who volunteer and taking part

BIIHI and his militia on the other hand, his army is built on fat cats Nuux Taani, mostly chosen by nepotism, not merit based, and majority of them know it is illegal war, 

[maakhiri1]

1 hour ago, galbeedi said:

Then why a full attack today?

In fact, today's war was the heaviest ever. Before there were skirmishes and shelling, but today,  close to a brigade from Somaliland attacked Laascaanood to take over the city and overwhelm the defenders. It was a real war with Ak47 and machine with thousands of men participating ( Gacan baa la isla tagay dagaalka maanta). Muuse Biixi wanted to crush the Laascaanood resistance and occupy the city before the visit of the American ambassador to Hargeisa and claim to be fighting terrorists.

Reliable sources say that the Somaliland forces have been repulsed and defeated with heavy loses. I have been told that the Garaad community members from Puntland BSF who left Boosaaso and others who were formerly trained with Danab forces who have higher fighting experience than the usual militia had inflicted the biggest damage to Somaliland.

More than anything Somaliland lost the messaging and the reason they are fighting in Sool. The message of the Laascaanood people is simple, relatable and understandable. They say," We are caucusing to decide for our future; we will negotiate when the gun on our head (Somaliland forces) are removed from our town".

And what Somaliland say. "Laascaanood people are Somaliland but they have been taken over by terrorists; we will resolve the issue with negotiations but we have to shell the town to defend the forces; we are sent elders yesterday, but today will not leave the city". It is confusing and misleading. No wonder the whole Somali world is siding with Laascaanood.

 

 

Yesterday was worse day for Biihi, not sure how he miscalculated,  war dadkani dhulkoodii bay joogaan, xoog ma soconaayo, he should move his soldiers asap

Massive loss,  xitaa farxadii, Ssc xalay dhan Waa dabaaldegayeen

[Che -Guevara]

The fighting has resumed again this morning.

[Che -Guevara]

Galbeedi,

They can't keep their lies straight. Apparently, Pland was part of the fighting yesterday.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Bugland is sending mercenaries and the sl govt is fighting terrorists that’s why the war will continue until they are completely annihilated and defeated

todsy they have lost over 25 people

and somaliland lost only two soldiers