According to Puntland elites the Khaatumo road ahead will be tough.

[galbeedi]

Today I want to address the political reality of the Laascaanood uprising.  According to Puntland analysts, after the dust settles, the political issues surrounding Khatumo could be more difficult than the war itself. To gage the other side of the KHaatumo Vs Somaliland conflict, I had a long discussion with a gentleman from Puntland.

 

While the overwhelming public or I should say almost everyone in Puntland supports the Khaatumo uprising in Laascaanood, The political elite sees things differently.  according to Puntland political insiders,  there are big gabs in terms of the end goal. So, to gage the thinking of the Puntland political class, I had to sit down to this guy and hear it from the horse's mouth.

 

Galbeedi: We all know the Laascaanood uprising had united the Garaad community, but let us discuss where it is heading after guns become silent?

 

Puntland Guy: THere is a difficult road ahead, one that is more difficult than the current war. I am talking about what kind of political form will Khaatumo establish after  the war. 

 

Galbeedi: If they form their own provisional administration, get Defacto recognition from the federal government just like the early stages of Galmudug circa 2011-2012, wouldn't that be enough for starters?

 

Puntland Guy: The federal government under president Hassan Sheikh will not recognize Khaatumo. The first HSM regime in 2012, refused to recognize Jubbaland despite Ahmed Madoobe controlling KIsmaayo and surrounding area with no significant opposition. He relented and accepted due to trhe huge pressure Puntland and others put HSM including protests while he was visiting USA. THat is when HSM started the Galmudug state project. Besides, HSM has to organize Galmudug due to his close association with that community and to avoid pressure and clashes in Mogadishu and central Somalia. But Khaatumo isn't Galmudug.

 

Galbeedi: Is it possible to apply the same pressure to HSM in order to recognize Khaatumo?

 

Puntland Guy: No. That is out of the question. HSM is a tribally minded leader and for him recognizing Khaatumo means welcoming another H..ti or D block region which no no in his book. If the pressure becomes unbearable the best,  he could do is allow Khaatumo under Puntland sphere. In Mogadishu, there is a code of policy to sideline Puntlanders and enhance the JUbbland branch of the D block. 

 

Galbeedi: Are the Khaatumo guys willing to be under the protection of Puntland politically to have their own Maamul?

 

Puntland Guy: Even if Somaliland leaves the area and projects its security forces far away from Laascaanood, they will face uncertainty. If you remember, the Galmudug of president Caalin controlled a district of Baraxley in Gaalkacayo, but president Faroole made them full partners by inviting them the Garoowe 1 and 2 despite their weakness and lack of territory. It was a political move. So, for Khaatumo to survive in the next difficult stage they must come under the Puntland wings and cover. They could access the foreign donor share through Garoowe and so on. But if they believe the fairy tale of the Somali government and became antagonistic to Puntland they will suffer.

 

Galbeedi: I am sensing that you don't have a faith of Khaatumo standing by itself without leaning to no one? Isn't that the typical Puntland political goal of swallowing that region.

 

Puntland Guy: Not at all. There are many people who are bi-lingual in Khaatumo ( Here he doesn't mean about speaking French Ala Canada parlance) and Behind the public uprising there is a deep tension. There is a group among Khaatumo that got rich through Somaliland either with business connections or political patronage and that group isn't fully on board yet. 

 

Galbeedi: There is tension in every region and community today. What is your biggest fear?

 

Puntland Guy: My biggest fear is clashes among them. They must avoid that in order to survive at this difficult time. Also, they must avoid the rise of a warlord among the uprising and the community. Puntland, despite its internal problems had avoided a warlord to rise in their regions. Today February 15, as we speak, I have seen a video clip of a would-be warlord claiming to be in charge.

 

Galbeedi: who are you referring to?

 

Puntland Guy: He is the Qat trader guy called Mohamed Djibuutaawi. Today he publicly said he is in charge and was sending conflicting messages to Muuse Biixi. He might have some money and militia, but he has no capacity to sort these problems. As I said the next two years will be tough and since there is no recognition coming from the federal government, they better establish a good relationship with Puntland. Also, Hargeisa, not the Maamul, but the city itself,  is captivating and many people from Puntland and Garaad community go there for big city life which isn't possible in Garoowe or Boosaaso. Furthermore, it is expensive to maintain the life style of the KHaatumo elite.

 

Galbeedi: Don't you see that 2023 is a different era? . People had paid for the ultimate price and this project and the stakes are higher than usual?

 

Puntlanf Guy:  Of course, they have no choice but to fight, but they have to see now the rough road ahead. 

 

Galbeedi: What could Somaliland do to sideline or damage the Khaatumo project?

 

PUntland Guy: Everyone knows that Somaliland will lose any war no matter what, but their strength is political mechanizations and balkanizing the Khaatumo.  

 

Well folks those are the main points.

 

As we speak, Muuse is sending finally the elders from Somaliland. The meeting will happen in OOg if Khaatumo Garaads accept it. It looks that these elders will be cover for Muuse to accept the order of the international community. The elders will recomend the relocation of the forces which is the minimum Khaatumo will accept. Finally, the guns might become silent.

[Che -Guevara]

People seem to underestimate two things- Muse's arrogance and dictatorial tendencies and the people of Sool's determination to free themselves.

[Duufaan]

Galbeed

The Putland elites never liked Khaatumo  state. But there are some changes Abdiwali from Mudug said lately he does support Khaatumo state. But both Faroole and Deni will try their best to stop formation of khaatumo state and working with Biixi as we speak.

As you pointed out it  is all about International community attitude and for now they will not differentiate  SSC, Awdal, Putland and Somaliland. The lessons they learned Ethiopia. They are supporting and helping Hassan for reason and he only controls  Moqdisho and surrounding area. 

When Khaatumo became free it will receive everything directly. It’s already happening. The Barwaaqo program was already approved to happen in the SSC.

Somaliland was collecting more than 2 million dollars a month from Khaatumo region.The problem will not be about recourses but more likely the luck of culture of governing. But Khaatumo will rather fight each other than having anyone else around.
 

 

[maakhiri1]

1 hour ago, galbeedi said:

Today I want to address the political reality of the Laascaanood uprising.  According to Puntland analysts, after the dust settles, the political issues surrounding Khatumo could be more difficult than the war itself. To gage the other side of the KHaatumo Vs Somaliland conflict, I had a long discussion with a gentleman from Puntland.

 

While the overwhelming public or I should say almost everyone in Puntland supports the Khaatumo uprising in Laascaanood, The political elite sees things differently.  according to Puntland political insiders,  there are big gabs in terms of the end goal. So, to gage the thinking of the Puntland political class, I had to sit down to this guy and hear it from the horse's mouth.

 

Galbeedi: We all know the Laascaanood uprising had united the Garaad community, but let us discuss where it is heading after guns become silent?

 

Puntland Guy: THere is a difficult road ahead, one that is more difficult than the current war. I am talking about what kind of political form will Khaatumo establish after  the war. 

 

Galbeedi: If they form their own provisional administration, get Defacto recognition from the federal government just like the early stages of Galmudug circa 2011-2012, wouldn't that be enough for starters?

 

Puntland Guy: The federal government under president Hassan Sheikh will not recognize Khaatumo. The first HSM regime in 2012, refused to recognize Jubbaland despite Ahmed Madoobe controlling KIsmaayo and surrounding area with no significant opposition. He relented and accepted due to trhe huge pressure Puntland and others put HSM including protests while he was visiting USA. THat is when HSM started the Galmudug state project. Besides, HSM has to organize Galmudug due to his close association with that community and to avoid pressure and clashes in Mogadishu and central Somalia. But Khaatumo isn't Galmudug.

 

Galbeedi: Is it possible to apply the same pressure to HSM in order to recognize Khaatumo?

 

Puntland Guy: No. That is out of the question. HSM is a tribally minded leader and for him recognizing Khaatumo means welcoming another H..ti or D block region which no no in his book. If the pressure becomes unbearable the best,  he could do is allow Khaatumo under Puntland sphere. In Mogadishu, there is a code of policy to sideline Puntlanders and enhance the JUbbland branch of the D block. 

 

Galbeedi: Are the Khaatumo guys willing to be under the protection of Puntland politically to have their own Maamul?

 

Puntland Guy: Even if Somaliland leaves the area and projects its security forces far away from Laascaanood, they will face uncertainty. If you remember, the Galmudug of president Caalin controlled a district of Baraxley in Gaalkacayo, but president Faroole made them full partners by inviting them the Garoowe 1 and 2 despite their weakness and lack of territory. It was a political move. So, for Khaatumo to survive in the next difficult stage they must come under the Puntland wings and cover. They could access the foreign donor share through Garoowe and so on. But if they believe the fairy tale of the Somali government and became antagonistic to Puntland they will suffer.

 

Galbeedi: I am sensing that you don't have a faith of Khaatumo standing by itself without leaning to no one? Isn't that the typical Puntland political goal of swallowing that region.

 

Puntland Guy: Not at all. There are many people who are bi-lingual in Khaatumo ( Here he doesn't mean about speaking French Ala Canada parlance) and Behind the public uprising there is a deep tension. There is a group among Khaatumo that got rich through Somaliland either with business connections or political patronage and that group isn't fully on board yet. 

 

Galbeedi: There is tension in every region and community today. What is your biggest fear?

 

Puntland Guy: My biggest fear is clashes among them. They must avoid that in order to survive at this difficult time. Also, they must avoid the rise of a warlord among the uprising and the community. Puntland, despite its internal problems had avoided a warlord to rise in their regions. Today February 15, as we speak, I have seen a video clip of a would-be warlord claiming to be in charge.

 

Galbeedi: who are you referring to?

 

Puntland Guy: He is the Qat trader guy called Mohamed Djibuutaawi. Today he publicly said he is in charge and was sending conflicting messages to Muuse Biixi. He might have some money and militia, but he has no capacity to sort these problems. As I said the next two years will be tough and since there is no recognition coming from the federal government, they better establish a good relationship with Puntland. Also, Hargeisa, not the Maamul, but the city itself,  is captivating and many people from Puntland and Garaad community go there for big city life which isn't possible in Garoowe or Boosaaso. Furthermore, it is expensive to maintain the life style of the KHaatumo elite.

 

Galbeedi: Don't you see that 2023 is a different era? . People had paid for the ultimate price and this project and the stakes are higher than usual?

 

Puntlanf Guy:  Of course, they have no choice but to fight, but they have to see now the rough road ahead. 

 

Galbeedi: What could Somaliland do to sideline or damage the Khaatumo project?

 

PUntland Guy: Everyone knows that Somaliland will lose any war no matter what, but their strength is political mechanizations and balkanizing the Khaatumo.  

 

Well folks those are the main points.

 

As we speak, Muuse is sending finally the elders from Somaliland. The meeting will happen in OOg if Khaatumo Garaads accept it. It looks that these elders will be cover for Muuse to accept the order of the international community. The elders will recomend the relocation of the forces which is the minimum Khaatumo will accept. Finally, the guns might become silent.

Very good,  I agree many of this guys assessment,  it will be difficult but IA they will succeed. 

I also saw few clips of this new Warlord,  he should let Garaads and chosen people speak for Khaatumo. 

[maakhiri1]

17 minutes ago, Duufaan said:

 

Somaliland was collecting more than 2 million dollars a month from Khaatumo region.The problem will not be about recourses but more likely the luck of culture of governing. But Khaatumo will rather fight each other than having anyone else around.
 

 

Yes , many fat cats, from secessionists and some local SSC , got rich of the misery of these people,  no  more.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Khatumo will have it very difficult for one reason because both puntland and somaliland is against them it will be difficult for them . It’s like iraqi kurdistan both Iraq and Turkey oppose it.  The difference between Galmudug is. Galmudug doesn’t have an enemy to its south with the exception of alshabaab and to the north it made peace with puntland. Also  if puntland can’t claim sool and sanaag  lacagtay ku qaatan qadaan kari mayaan and as for somaliland it isn’t going to leave any part of sool any time soon and that it self is also a problem for them. then there is a also internal Gãrââd clan division amongst themselves  clan divisions different interests the subclans from taleex and  tukaraq b. Are always at odds with each other with the other clans from yagoori and adhicadeeya  this will not change any time soon

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

They spelled the city again. It doesn't matter who Muse sends, he will always violate everything.

[Illyria]

Dear Galbeedi,
Is your PL friend by any chance a resident of Nairobi? Or a fat cat suckling unto a padded tit adorned with glossy lipstick? I ask, for he comes across as a darn revisionist in his thinking, a sentiment shared by others of his leanings including some of SSC folk. His analyses is stale, if left-leaning, and is speaking from a position of expired logic, if mental retardation. Today's SSC is not quite that of Galaydh's Khaatumo, is led by Garaado, and is harder to break their will, and resolution.

PL is weakened with pychopathic Deni, alienating regions, at its helm, and so is SL with schizopherenic Bihi killing its people one region at  time, and managing to keep HYonis out of its sphere, both of which play to SSC's advantage.

PL admin has a single role: that of supporting SSC, and if unable, PL people & Issims shall step in, as they are doing at the moment, to usher SSC in out from the cold.

The future if SSC is no longer at the mercy of villa Garowe or Xamar, but at Las Anod, something your PL friend failed to consider, and whilst their support is of value, it is no longer as critical as it perhaps once were.

The campaign to recognise SSC as a polity on its own merit, has already begun with Issims and political classes elsewhere receptive to the idea, where if the needed support is being secured, softer landing at its desired destination is expected.

Tough indeed the goings shall be, but  lessons from the recent past shall help sail the SSC ship to a safe ground.

The most viable option for SSC is that of a provisional Federal State similar to those satellite admins in Jawhar & Beledweyn. Short of that is unacceptable. GalMudug, carved out of S Mudug is a State for a reason, and so is Delaware.

As for Jabutawi's bellowings post lengthy  khat-induced late night sessions, he is merely speaking to his former Yardie  bosses in the blunt language they understand, which is not a concern for SSC folk.

[Che -Guevara]

 

[galbeedi]

Illyria,

My Puntland  friend is in the diaspora just like me sucking Latte, and among the Puntlanders I met, he is more of right wing than left in terms his thinkinf.

Having said that you really raised two very good points. One is the deep state in Puntland: Isimada, traders and the people are on board and no leader could derail their support. The other one is:

1 hour ago, Illyria said:

The most viable option for SSC is that of a provisional Federal State similar to those satellite admins in Jawhar & Beledweyn. Short of that is unacceptable. GalMudug, carved out of S Mudug is a State for a reason, and so is Delaware.

If Hirshabele whose leader resides in Mogadishu with almost zero institutions other than armed militia could pull off a provisional state in name only so does Khaatumo.

I think the main takeaway from him is that the next KHaatumo should avoid those who have the political thinking of the late Ali Khaliif, may Allah bless his soul. Blessing of the PUntland leadership is crucial in the short term.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

 Galbeedi The million dollar question is how can two districts of one region be a federal state under the bunker if that was the case hiiraan would have been a federal state . Doesn’t it say u need to have two or more regions . Based on the former 18 regions of the Somali republic which ceased to exist in in 1991..

[jamacabdi265]

8 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

 Galbeedi The million dollar question is how can two districts of one region be a federal state under the bunker if that was the case hiiraan would have been a federal state . Doesn’t it say u need to have two or more regions . Based on the former 18 regions of the Somali republic which ceased to exist in in 1991..

SSC waa 2 goboo iyo badh, mee ka liidataa gobolada kale oo qaar hal degmo ka taliyaan. 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Sanaag afka uun bay ka sheegtan xita labba tuulo kama degan. That said even if they  include the eastern sanaag community. That would mean they would have only region. It’s still not enough  . Because easterns sanaag hal district bay ka imanayan which is badhan but they did not even convince their own kin in eastern sanaag .

 

what does that leave them with the laascanood district which they share with the fqsn group . And taleex districts. One could also include the buhoodle district  but they dont entirely own the buhoodle district but share it also. All in  all they would come short still and they would only have  three districts  not even a fulll region  if they include eastern sanaag they would have one region and a shared district of buhoodle . Still come short. Sinaba mamuul goboleed kuma noqonaysa. Cayn is not a region it’s a district of sool where they only live in the buhoodle town. They have only two towns in that district horurfadhi and buhoodle . Where as the habar love group have qorilugud and coodanle . That’s the whole districts . Marka tana ku darso xisaabta 

[jamacabdi265]

Macaa 30 sano hadey qadato intey SSC ka heliso aqoonsi dowlada Somalia, sida adigu ku adkeysatay reer kaga mowqifkoods go’iitaanka ayee tolkuna ku adkeysaniyaan mawqifkooda.  

Hadaa ma SNM ayaa qorshe siyadeed leheed shalaybmarkey go’iyeen ila maanta wax qorshe heynin. Oo ku qanacsantihiin ina substation jabuuti ahaatiin, meesha sodonsano aqoonsi afka uun ka leedihid. Sidaas oo kale ayee SSC dantooda iyo ayahooda raaciyaan. 

[jamacabdi265]

Xasan Sheick sax buu ku yahay, SL cidna ma kuma khasbi karto sidoo kale SSC cidna ma khasbi karto.