Somalia: Step carefully now---- The politics of use and abuse.

[Sophist]

The events unfolding in the deep south of our country is indeed not surprising. The fleeing of Bare Hiraale was something that most Somali political analysts knew will happen but we thought he would resist a bit--- did the right thing to avoid any bloodshed. The popular believe that he was a front of what was more powerful than him has been proved to be right.

 

I feel sorry for the old man as he has been used politically.

 

In the meantime, feast your eyes on this refreshing article below;

 

 

----

 

Somalia: Step carefully now!

 

SOMALIA IS RIPER FOR A FUNDAMENTAL change today than any time since the fall of Siad Barre 15 years ago. With a carefully constructed strategy, Igad may yet be able to tip the scales in favour of stability, even with its limited economic and political resources.

 

But if Igad does not change its approach, it may in the near future be forced to participate in an expensive peacemaking or humanitarian relief operation. Pre-emption should thus be the focus of Igad's policy on Somali. Already, there are signs that a major flood of refugees is about to break out of the troubled nation.

 

The UNHCR has reported that its camps in Northern Kenya are receiving refugees at an alarming rate. It is a worrisome trend, because the truth of the matter is that the Igad countries simply do not have the capacity or resources to deal with a major humanitarian relief operation in Somalia.

 

Because of its geostrategic location, Somali can serve as a major agent of destabilisation in the Horn of Africa. However, Igad appears wilfully to be taking the wrong approach, seeking to confront the Islamic Courts Union rather than open channels of communications with a group that currently enjoys huge popular support.

 

Sending armed men into Somalia will simply not work; under the current circumstances, they will run into a popular insurrection worse than that happening in Iraq today. None of the Igad countries promising to contribute troops to a peacekeeping force in Somalia has the military capacity or the resources to deal with a protracted uprising. Igad is also wrong in approaching the Islamic Courts Union as if it were the biggest threat to peace right now. Indeed, the bigger potential risk to peace in the region is a protracted popular insurrection led by the Islamic Courts.

 

It does not make any sense at all to confront the Islamists at this point in time. In its eagerness to install the Baidoa-based Transitional Government, which has no popular base, Igad has failed to appreciate the extent to which Somali opinion has radicalised and how its plans to send troops into Somali have offended nationalistic sentiments. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Islamic Courts do not derive their power from military might alone. This is a popular movement that is riding the crest of a xenophobic wave that has swept the country.

 

The Islamists enjoys wide acceptance and respect, and are viewed as vanguards against Western influence. The second major mistake being made by Igad is to allow Ethiopia to play a prominent role in its policy in Somalia. Currently, perceptions of Ethiopia throughout Somalia verge on the paranoid, with the country seen as directly responsible for many of Somalia's problems. Indeed, one reason why it has been difficult to bring the Islamists and the Transitional Government to the negotiating table is the perception among the Somali people that the Baidoa-based government are surrogates of Ethiopia.

 

Of all the countries in Igad, Kenya has the best credentials to play the neutral arbiter between the Islamic Courts and the government in Baidoa. Nairobi should take the lead in negotiating a power sharing agreement that recognises, on the one hand, the power and influence of the Islamic Courts in the Somali society today, and on the other the international recognition and legitimacy that the Transistional Government in Baidoa commands.

[ScarFace]

^^^Its all a joke the IUC had the support of the whole people before the fiasco in kismayo.. and everyone knows now that they are using allahs sacred religion for their bad deeds. They want to take over somalia like the warlords did. They aint no different same warlords but now dressed in allahs religion.

 

As for barre hiraale that dangerous man will be back...he did what was right and moved out of the city without any bloodshed lets see what happens now...Their true colours will be seen

[OLOL]

the riots in kismaayo by these women qat sellers is not really a riot. people became addicted after chewing those leaves and now want it. the women were drug sellers. they should get other skills and occupoations.

[Gabbal]

^Yes and the people knew what the Courts would do when they started violently opposing them the second they entered the city. :rolleyes:

 

More then anything the Qat and Flag talk are demeaning when the real purpose of the protests are know.

 

Sophist-

 

Why does it seem to me like Barraad u caraysantahay because you believe he should have stayed and fought ..?

 

Barre will fight, but not at the expense of the people calling out daily for his name in Kismaayo. You have my guarantee on that. When and how he plans to not put a scare on the Kismaayo populace is not here for me to tell, but he will be back and more triumphantly, god willing.

[Bakar]

"It does not make any sense at all to confront the Islamists at this point in time. In its eagerness to install the Baidoa-based Transitional Government, which has no popular base, Igad has failed to appreciate the extent to which Somali opinion has radicalised and how its plans to send troops into Somali have offended nationalistic sentiments. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Islamic Courts do not derive their power from military might alone. This is a popular movement that is riding the crest of a xenophobic wave that has swept the country."

 

 

Anigoo politcs waxba ka aqoon baa quote kur qoran fahmay political weight ay heyso.

[Libaax-Sankataabte]

Allow sahal amuuraha.

[NASSIR]

Granted they seize the control of the most parts of Somalia, What would their form of government be? One of our brothers, Hirad, argues, "Islamism, for me, on the other hand, is an ideology—and a radical one—adopted by a group of people of the same faith seeking to dominate all other forms of authority in the land, and perhaps the neighboring entities. "

 

I don't object to their existence but their power sharing method by virtue of their clan base and their pursuit to coerce people into their fold. "You either with us or we will crush you:†That is the frame of mind that these Islamic warlords manifest in public. They deny the elected government and try to prevent it from engaging civil services and providing basic needs to its own people. They wish the government perishes today, and they deride neighboring countries that without their protections to the fragile institutions of the government, they would have conquered Baidhabo and imposed death penalty on the president and his prime minister.

 

Their political orientations in Islamic clothing are to reconfigure Somalia into Taliban-style rule whereby they want to take our society into the dark ages, depriving them of basic liberty and the freedom of expression.

 

 

In addition, in Ayah(s) 159 and 160 of Surah 3: Ali Imran, the Qur’an reads as follows:

 

“It is part of the Mercy of Allah that thou dost deal gently with them. Wert thou severe or harsh-hearted, they would have broken away from about thee: so pass over (their faults) and ask for (Allah’s) forgiveness for them; and consult them on affairs (of the moment). Then, when thou hast taken a decision, put thy trust in Allah. For Allah loves those who put their trust (in Him)â€

 

[OLOL]

it is two years after Yeey and the whole IGAD farce came to "power"? what have they done? except to wander around? ask for handouts? bicker among themselves? two long years of doing nothing? they have never build one school? one clinic? all they did was ask the UNDP for some pennies and travel around the world asking for peace keeping forces to protect them from the same people they are planning to rule..pathetic..they should be disbanded and brought to justice...

[Khayr]

In addition, in Ayah(s) 159 and 160 of Surah 3: Ali Imran, the Qur’an reads as follows:

 

“It is part of the Mercy of Allah that thou dost deal gently with them. Wert thou severe or harsh-hearted, they would have broken away from about thee: so pass over (their faults) and ask for (Allah’s) forgiveness for them; and consult them on affairs (of the moment).

Then, when thou hast taken a decision, put thy trust in Allah. For Allah loves those who put their trust (in Him)â€

 

I believe that the UIC has consulted with people re: Kismayo take over without a bullet fired, and they inshallah will continue to do so. For Wisdom dictates that gentle action towards people is what gains their allegiance and loyalty.

 

Allow sahal amuuraha

Amin

[rudy-Diiriye]

sophist, did u pull this article outta of the clan court teeth! loool... its so one sided, it aint even funny!

 

listen, ultra radicalism will never work with somali ppl, it basically against the culture of nomadic society..! i dont have to spell to u how we resolve problems in our culture..!

 

we will see when the kitab weaving fever ends, everybody is gonna go back to their roots...! then what.. we start again from zero...so we ridding the analog wave! what goes up must come down..!

 

ramadan karim.....all!

[NASSIR]

The world seems to be paying attention to the Somali strife.

 

Specialists urge US to focus on Somali strife

 

Islamist advance seen to threaten a wider conflict

 

By John Donnelly, Globe Staff | September 28, 2006

 

 

The Boston Globe

 

WASHINGTON -- Africa specialists criticized the Bush administration yesterday for not paying more attention to the increasingly volatile situation in Somalia, saying that senior officials were consumed by their efforts to stop the fighting in the Darfur region of Sudan.

 

In Somalia, Islamist militias have taken one town after another in the south-central part of the fractured nation since capturing the de facto capital Mogadishu in June. Now, they appear poised to attack the small town of Baidoa near the country's western border with Ethiopia.

 

Baidoa is the base of the increasingly powerless Somali transitional federal government, which is backed by the United States and Ethiopia. Analysts predict that if the Islamists attack the town, which appears likely, the conflict could evolve into a wider war with Ethiopia.

 

``We're completely distracted by Sudan," said J. Stephen Morrison , director of the Africa program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies and a State Department official during the Clinton administration. ``We should be engaging the Islamists . . . and find out what their intentions are."

 

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice yesterday delivered a major speech on Sudan before the Africa Society of the National Summit on Africa , calling on the government in Khartoum to end hostilities immediately and unconditionally accept a UN peacekeeping force. The fighting in Darfur has led to the deaths of several hundred thousand people and displacing an estimated 2.5 million people since 2002.

 

Rice talked about Somalia only in response to a question from Melvin P. Foote , president of Constituency for Africa , a Washington-based advocacy group, who asked what the administration was doing about problems in nearby Somalia, Ethiopia, and Eritrea.

 

On Somalia, Rice said, ``We have been trying, despite the difficulties there, to support a transitional government that might be able to . . . help the country come together." She said the United States would not negotiate with any group that works with terrorists, a veiled reference to the Islamists who form the Consultative Council of Islamic Courts, the formal name of the extremist militia that is rapidly consolidating its grip on the country.

 

Somalia's interim Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Ghedi earlier this week appealed for outside help, saying it was needed to ``protect the region from the expansion of this Al Qaeda network, these terrorists."

 

It is unclear whether Al Qaeda has recently made serious inroads in Somalia. CIA officials had been traveling extensively to Somalia before June under the protection of warlords, to whom the intelligence officers paid tens of thousands of dollars for information. The warlords are generally rivals of the Islamists. The CIA has been seeking three men in Somalia believed to have organized or participated in the 1998 bombings of US embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

 

Most analysts say that small terror cells exist in the country, but that the chaotic nature of the country -- it hasn't had a functioning government in 15 years -- also poses a risk that Somalis could turn in members of a terror group for a ransom.

 

The question now is whether the Islamists, which appear to be led by members of Al Itihad Al Islamiya , a radical group that is part of the Islamic courts and led by hard-liner Hassan Dahir Aweys , want to provoke a war with Ethiopia, and what would trigger an Ethiopian decision to fight.

 

Among the worrisome factors: Aweys has said his movement aims to take over all historic Somali areas, including those in Ethiopia; Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi , who is ruthless and pro-West, views Somali Islamists as a threat; and the tiny country of Eritrea, which has a recent history of bloody border wars with Ethiopia, is sending arms and money to the Ethiopian opposition movements in Somalia.

 

``My principal worry now is the Islamic hard-liners are creating conditions in which war with Ethiopia is increasingly likely," Kenneth J. Menkhaus , a Somali specialist and professor of political science at Davidson College , said in a telephone interview from Davidson, N.C. ``A war would be bad for everyone -- the Ethiopians, the Somalis, the region, the US. The only people to benefit would be the [islamic] jihadists."

 

Robert I. Rotberg , director of the program on Intrastate Conflict at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government , said Ethiopia is clearly worried about Eritrea's involvement and also wants to ``nip separatism in the bud. If Ethiopia adopted half a Bush [administration] mentality, they would want to strike a blow to maintain their power. Ethiopians would like nothing better than an all-out direct battle for Baidoa."

 

The two countries have frequently been on a war footing since Somalia's independence in 1960. Somalia has claimed that Ethiopia occupies a part of its territory, the ****** region. In 1977, the two countries waged a war over the ******, which Ethiopia held after receiving substantial military assistance from Russia and Cuba.

[Sophist]

Sophist-

 

"Why does it seem to me like Barraad u caraysantahay because you believe he should have stayed and fought ..?"

 

Walaale, where did you get that from? Perhaps you are super imposing your own thoughts on me. Hiiraale, met with his fate. He was used and when his time came he was shown that he has no power base in Kismayu.

 

Now, why would he want to come back and fight because of Kismayo? Why spill the innocent blood of the boys of Gedo? Oh I know, after reaping the economic benefits of this city, he can not bear the thought of going back to Cabudwaq-- or more importantly his inflated position of power gleaned from Kismayo will be altogether lost. Hiraale is not the most singularly intelligent, diligent, brave and patriotic of the sons of S..E. But he emerged the most powerful of all because of his possession (you might argue he was a front man of a show run by powerful directors who later found out he was not needed anymore) of this priced city. Without it he will disappear into the abeyance of Somali political grave—a place littered with one hit wonder leaders. But of course this is not the picture he will paint. This is a loss to his kinsmen! What a tragedy!!!.

 

Now this should not happen, it is affront to the grace of his kinsmen who feel that without Kismayo in their hands they will disappear to oblivion. What an injurious thought indeed.

 

Kismayo has been seen as the jewel of south and a political magic stick of which whoever is in possession of will eventually get a large bite of the national cake— just look at the share of Hiiraale’s kinsmen in the TFG parliament. This is the real issue, nothing more nothing less.

 

Now, why would Hiraale would be willing to shed blood of his fellow kinsmen (multitudes of them will die if there is confrontation in Kismayo)? Of course you might say what a futile question to pose Sophist! You might shout have already highlighted that dimwit!!!!!, but considering of the contemporary history of Kismayo; is it really worth it? Only those with inflated ego may believe that they can withstand the political karma of Kismayo. As long as this continues, Kismayo will elude those who desperately want to court it for their corporeal pleasures.

[Haashim]

Who said Barre couldn't come back to Kismayo?

 

Barre is a Somali man and he can stay and live in any city, town or village in Somalia.

 

UIC never say Barre couldn't come back and they surprised why did he left while his commorades were welcoming the returned Turk's forces (Remember the Turk's forces left Lower Jubba to help IUC in Mogadishu couple of months ago).

 

he should welcome them as his friends did; shouldn't he?

 

if he decided not to welcome them what is the problem?

 

I'm really :confused: ,

 

Why did barre hiiraale escape? was anyone threatned him? please feed me back as i don't understand why all these outcry for someone who left the city voluntarily and no one said you can't come back? :confused:

[Sophist]

Muraad, welcome back. Ramadan Karim.

[Haashim]

Sophist sxb Mahadsanid

 

dadkaan way na waalayaan;

Kismaayaa dagaal ka dhacay,

shimmas dagaal ka dhacay? m

ise wax ayanaan ogeyn baa jira? a

yaamahaan oo dhan waan yaabanahay!

 

cambaarayn, dhaleecayn, bayaanno waa yaab see wax u jiraan, bal adigaa siyaasaadda iiga dhuun daloolaye bal wax igu biiri!