Great expectations in Laascaanood, Biixi must eventually resign, Omar Geele in action and HSM must stop dithering.

[galbeedi]

For Sool, it is now or never.

 

All eyes and ears of the Somali people are tuned these days  to Laascaanood. Everyone is waiting the up coining conference of the Graads, Suldaans, elders, politicians of different stripes, scholars, civil society and members the diaspora. These community are the pioneers of the modern Somali state and nationalism. They were the founders of the oldest independent movement in black Africa at the end of nineteen century. Just little over hundred years ago they were fighting the British colonial forces aided by Indians, Swahili and Somalis in these Plaines of Taleex and Lasanod. 

 

About two weeks ago, I was invited at  Khaatumo event to make a brief speech about the uprising in Lasanod and the massacre's of innocent protesters. I emphasized just two points. One was that how insane it is for the  grandchildren of the  freedom fighters of Somalia to be  fighting to remain free and Somali in 21st century which nothing but the reflection of the Somali state today, and the second point was that  the introduction of unrepentant warlords at the helm of Somaliland administration.

 

There is a anxiety and great expectations from this conference, yet no one can ignore who are the real players. When there is huge public uprising, the politicians are nothing more than a fish in a big ocean, yet due to money, greed and selfishness, disagreements among them could derail the outcome. Here, I am not talking about those the people of Laasanod call " Horgale" or paid stooges. Drunkards like Indho Indho or Saleebaan Koore don't have the prestige or the wisdom to resolve anything, they are there to entertain the man who hiding inside the Morgan house in Hargeisa.

 

The real players are Ahmed Karaash, the deputy president of Puntland  and the speaker of the Somaliland parliament Abdirahman Khaliif. There are tough decisions to be made and hard pills to swallow for the future of the community. THe Graads must breach the gabs between these two camps. THose from Puntland have great advantage in this contest. They could come from Garoowe accept the Khaatumo project and still reside in Garoowe among their kin without any thought of losing anything. They own 25% of Garoowe city, , but those from Hargeisa, it is the end of their titles and the whole project. The weakness of the Sool community to get behind one leader was apparent last time around when they chose three presidents instead of one. Ahmed Karash has 11 months left of his term within Puntland elections which due in January 2024, thus he could be persuaded to accept the project. For Hargeisa the the stakes are high.

Don't make any hasty decisions. In 1991, in Burco while Abdirahman Tuur was waiting his delegation from Mogadishu, armed gun men led probably by Calan Cas put gun on everyone and forced to declare a secession that wasn't endorsed by the leadership. After 32 years that project hasn't gone anywhere.

 

If I were an adviser to the Khaatumo Garaads ,here what  I would have suggested:

1- Rather than declare full fledged " Maamul", it would be prudent to proclaim a temporary caretaker administration.

2-  Assign  for the Garaads to pick the future members of the Khaatumo parliament.

3-Pick and choose the date of the convention to elect the leader by the parliament.

4- make sure the care taker leader shouldn't be among those running to succeed him.

5-Negotiate with the Somaliland Maamul to withdraw 30km from Laascaanood immediately.

 

Muuse Biixi must resign for Somaliland to remain viable for the future.

 

There is probably zero chance to get out of these mess. THere are no elders he could send to resolve Laascaanood or any diplomatic means to talk to anyone. His two main people at the table are Mohamed Kahin and Cali Koore, two people hated by both the Sool community and the majority of Somaliland people. THey took $1.5 million dollars the first week of the uprising, but quickly realized that bribes and buying will not resolve this time around. He is in rock and hard place or as they say dump if you do or don't. Having already killed protesters in both Hargeisa and Buroa and in Laaacaanood , he can't repeat again that or he will face a war crime tribunal. After defeating the hapless opposition led by the weak man called Abdirahman Cirro, by suppressing the the Hargeisa demonstration by bullets and then extending his term with two more years without the blessing of the opposition, Muuse thought he could be another Cumar Geelle in these part of Somalia. 

 

So, what is the next move?

 

THere is no honor among thieves . Rather build state and functioning institution, the SNM Habro politicians decided to loot and build clan hegemony. A small clan surrounding west of Hargeisa decided to ride Muuse Biixi and swallow more than they could chew, and forgot that in a clan inspired project, one must always try to maintain the fragile social contract and not tip the balance. The Khaatumo project will probably damage the Hargeisa project for good or even end it if new solutions are not found.

 

My solution are tough for the eco chambers who always say " Way duushay" it is flying high.

No  one is willing to talk to Muuse Biixi at the moment, and most people in Somaliland even want him to fail  yet,   there are solutions.

The great poet Gaariye said:

 

Markuu Buuxay Doobigu

Nin Danaystay Keligii

Markuu Daatay Kula Dhimo

Dhago Uma Daloolaan.

 

First, Muuse must resign for the well being of the people. His deputy Abdirahman Zaylici should take over and prepare for inclusive elections within six months.

 

The so called constitution should be amended by the parliament by abolishing the three party monopoly and allow everyone to run for president. Let the winner of this election forge a new beginning including peaceful separation of KHaatumo from Somaliland. Since the separatist's project will be dead in the water after the formation of Khaatumo, the new leader must create a totally different future without paranoia, hate of the blue flag and antagonism against their brethren in Somalia. We know that everything based or formed with emotions will not last after reality hits. THe Somaliland future doesn't need a man who is afraid of the old guard, you need someone who could lead and stand up to the losers who were thrown from the system in 1993. 

These " Calan Cas", as they were called in Hargeisa, forgot that the main reason Somalilans succeeded in peace was because we sidelined the warmongers and warlords in 1993 in Borama. Cigaal came and build the system, Faisal Waraabe, despite his loud mouth contributed to the peace. Furthermore, Rayaale, a humble and decent man came and ruled justly which attracted Reer Sool to leave Puntland and join the project in 2007. Ahmed Siilaanyo was an experienced elder, but stroke had stolen his capacity to rule yet he tried to incorporate his old friend, the late Ali Khallif. Without Ahmed Siilaanyo these misfits wouldn't had any chance. No one in Southern Somalia will accept today a former warlord who participated in clan wars to lead the land.

 

The Fat man of Djibouti must stay out of this.

 

OMar  Geelle was flying under the radar from most Somalis, except those of us who know him. He is a very sensitive man who can't take even mild criticism from Southern Somalis. In Hargeisa, you could be arrested if you criticize him, and in the south he bribes most of the Somali news outlets including Hiiraan Online, Universal TV and others. 

 

Last week, he called Ahmed Madoobe, who is becoming a seasoned politician these days. Unconfirmed reports indicate that Geelle wants to keep together the coalition that defeated Farmaajo intact including C/laahi Deni.  That doesn't mean Deni is being offered the top job, but Geelle knows,  that hand shake summit in Djibouti,  which brought the criminal Saddiq John, Biixi and Hassan Sheikh has left sour note among many Somalis who are unionists. When he was greeted in Mogadishu to open a fake academy, Deni snubbed him and remained in his hotel. Since Geelle is fearful being exposed he is working overtime to placate Puntland and others. While Somali leader don't care about their clans or others , they usually use them to reach the power.  in politics,  optics and perceptions could mean something. Some might even say that the Laascaanood uprising is a reaction of the Djibouti hand shake. The jury is still out what will Gelle offer to Puntland to bring them in the coalition.

 

Don't be surprised that in order to save Muuse Biixi, he might push HSM to replace Hamza Bear with someone close to Deni. Also, remember, Deni isn't alone. Ilhan Omar and the democratic party is helping HSM to defeat Al-shbaab thanks mostly to the American support in the sky through drones. Hassan Turki, a former leader of Raaskaambooni once said that during the Ethiopian invasion of Soutern Somalia and the American air campaign, " we were unable to pee outside for four months because of drones in the sky", yet after few months Raaskaambooni guys were paying young men salary, food and logistics.  Geelle controls Jigjiga politics indirectly, Biixi and HSM are his boys, and he have to find ways to bring Puntland to the circle. So, Sool could be the card . IT was the TPLF that instructed successive Puntland leaders to leave Sool under Somaliland and in return they were given some diplomatic and and political cover which allowed them to challenge the federal government in Mogadishu.

 

Yesterday, police chief Hijaar was fired and was replaced by a former body guard of Bashiir Goobe. He is just another name given a fake title and a task he couldn't even understand let alone manage it. He was once accused and briefly arrested for being connected to Al-shbaab, but later it was confirmed that he he was an informer to foreign powers mostly Kenyan intelligence. He is also the maternal nephew of Ahmed madoobe which indicates that HSM is straightening the alliance with madoobe. 

 

President HSM, please stop the ugly dithering and take your side,

He is speaking with both his mouth.  HE invited the Sool Graads to Mogadishu which is big no, yet as a water carrier for Omar Geelle he pushed as far as he could. Now he is talking like Oday Xaad. 

 

" Dadka Somalinimo iyo midnimo doon ayaa naga dhexeeysa laakiin Garoowe, Hargeisa iyo Muqdishu midna laguma xali karo.

 

All he needs to say is let the people of Laascaanood choose their destiny. full stop. The more he opens his mouth, the worst he looks. I heard that he dispatched $5 million dollars through local Sool charity, and two weeks ago a well placed member of the Sool member of the federal parliament told us that HSM, Sheikh Addan Madoobe and premier Hamza had both accepted Khaatumo in a meeting. If that is the case, HSM is in great pressure and maybe trying to thread in fine line..

 

THis will be an interesting year. Our friend Oodweyne and hardliners will stick to their guns no matter what and will sink with the ship.

 

[maakhiri1]

One in generation opportunity for these people, and it has alot of ramifications across the whole region 

The whole SL was built in lie, pure fabrication, no wonder it has  collapsed so fast

[maakhiri1]

 

[jamacabdi265]

Darasaad iyo falanqeyn dhameystiran ayaa so sameysay, laakinse Biixi iyo new-F*qash   si fudud kuma tagiyaan, meesha Somaliland sii burburiniyaan u muuqata.  

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Somaliland lo baqan mayo this is not the 1990s somaliland today has a capable army and institutions every one who goes out of line will be dealt with accordingly.  Calling somaliland somalia will not change anything for u galbeedi.  The Garaad clan cant also form a federal state under the bunker they live in one district in the sool region how can one district become a federal state . Furthermore even in that district somaliland is in full control 

[jamacabdi265]

3 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

Somaliland lo baqan mayo this is not the 1990s somaliland today has a capable army and institutions every one who goes out of line will be dealt with accordingly.  Calling somaliland somalia will not change anything for u galbeedi.  The Garaad clan cant also form a federal state under the bunker they live in one district in the sool region how can one district become a federal state . Furthermore even in that district somaliland is in full control 

xallagu xoog iyo ciidan lee miyaa? 

[jamacabdi265]

 

[Tallaabo]

17 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

Somaliland lo baqan mayo this is not the 1990s somaliland today has a capable army and institutions every one who goes out of line will be dealt with accordingly.  Calling somaliland somalia will not change anything for u galbeedi.  The Garaad clan cant also form a federal state under the bunker they live in one district in the sool region how can one district become a federal state . Furthermore even in that district somaliland is in full control 

Xaaji do you really think Mr Biixi and the ignorant gang around him can keep bullying the civilian population? They had already killed enough people in Hargaysa, Burco, Ceergaabo before doing the same in Laascaanood. I don't think any sane person in Somaliland would accept the continuation of their murderous campaign. If the people of Laascaanood want to go their separate way, why hold them hostage? And who can hold them hostage? The durriyadda subclans are themselves barely together anymore. Today it is Laascaanood, tomorrow it might as well be Burco or Ceergaabo. What will the failed Biixi and his fellow failed Kulmiye politicians do then? Some like the senile Saleebaan Gaal have already washed their hands off the country's problems. In fact, today there is barely any government worth its name in Somaliland. If you become ill, you would either have to go abroad for a basic medical treatment or you get killed by the so called "doctors" in the country. It seems the Horn of Africa's busiest route is the one between Hargeisa and Addis Ababa. And if you asked anyone travelling that route as to why they are going to Addis with their live savings, the only answer you would get is - "hospital". Moreover, if diseases and ill-health don't kill you, starvation will do the job for most people in the country. And yet the warlord president instead of resigning from office in disgrace, has the audacity to demand even more time to mismanage what little Somaliland has. And guess who gave him that unconstitutional extra time? Yes the same senile Saleebaan Gaal who refused even to be reminded of the issues in Laascaanood. Xaajiyoow if you are wondering as to why we still have a "government", the answer is the man and woman on the streets believe that- " dawlad la'aan dawlad xumo ayaa dhaanta". So please stop being delusional. 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Somaliland has its problems but it’s not how you illustrate it there have always been riots and uprise through out the past thirty years in somaliland. It  was during the time of siilaanyo there were riots due to the xaqsoor party.  During ina rayaale there riots in 2009  demonstrations and some casualties. It is no different how it happens now in the times of ina biixi.

 

but things will be solved  one way or the other.

 

i am not saying things are great but to say we are the the edge of destruction is not true.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jamacabdi265]

4 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

but things will be solved  one way or the other.

i am not saying things are great but to say we are the the edge of destruction is not true.

 

Wax kasta xal wee leeyihiin, laakinse kuwii wax xalin lahaa meeyeen??

New-f*qsh isku  dir iyo kala fogeyn uun kasoo shaqeeniyeen, Wax kale ma hayaan kartooyinkii kacaanka lee hayaan. 

[jamacabdi265]

Galbeedi sax buu ahaa iney SL u qeylo tagiso Djibouti faro galiniso, Las canood ma tol bee weyisaa? 

 

 

 

 

[jamacabdi265]

walaa Itoobiyaa ayaa kuu xalin karta arinta Las Canood. Meel kale yaan laga deydeyin xalka Somali gudahood laga rabaa  Iney keento xal siyasadeed umada u dan ah.

Hadii wadamo shiisheeya so  farogaliyaan arintaas wee sii qarxisaa uun, oo Ila Borama, Berbera iyo Bosasso gaadhi kartaa sameynta. Tariikhda hore wa  ina wax ka barano. 

Ha loo daayo local elders iyo local maamul iney xaliyaan. 

[jamacabdi265]

22 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

Somaliland lo baqan mayo this is not the 1990s somaliland today has a capable army and institutions every one who goes out of line will be dealt with accordingly.  Calling somaliland somalia will not change anything for u galbeedi.  The Garaad clan cant also form a federal state under the bunker they live in one district in the sool region how can one district become a federal state . Furthermore even in that district somaliland is in full control 

Dib ugu noqo hadalkaa. 

Garaad clan  wuxu degaa Las Anod, Boocame, Taleh, Xudun iyo Buhoodle districts(5 degmo). Waxana so raaca Erigavo, Aynabo iyo Garadag oo lala dego (3 degmo ). Isku 8 degmo weeyaan, ka badan Galmudug iyo inta degmooyinka ee maamulaan Jubbaland, Southwest, Hirshabbele. waxa  kale oo tolku degaan Badhan, Dhahar iyo Las Qorey (3 degmo) oo isku darsan kara. majority Sool, Sanaag iyo Cayn, kama yara Puntland. 

Dadka ha yareysan. 

[Illyria]

On 1/27/2023 at 10:37 PM, galbeedi said:

For Sool, it is now or never.

If I were an adviser to the Khaatumo Garaads ,here what  I would have suggested:

1- Rather than declare full fledged " Maamul", it would be prudent to proclaim a temporary caretaker administration.

2-  Assign  for the Garaads to pick the future members of the Khaatumo parliament.

3-Pick and choose the date of the convention to elect the leader by the parliament.

4- make sure the care taker leader shouldn't be among those running to succeed him.

5-Negotiate with the Somaliland Maamul to withdraw 30km from Laascaanood immediately.

 

Your analyses is sound, if somewhat idealistic, but let me point out a couple of things:

a)      The SL project was weakened, and indeed on a deathbed, the day HYonis walked away from it, and for good, documented reasons, which I do not wish to revisit. Majority of their elites are found in Xamar, and elsewhere in Somalia with a handful small scale business owners, and their families left in Hargeysa. Again, this was the educated, and the de facto political class, and leaders of SL. That was a clear sign for SSC that SL is now a Hargeysa-centric project with little, if any future of survival. As you put it, there is no honour amongst thieves, and with Bixi, Kahin & Co. at its helm, this rudderless ship is headed ashore. Let us wish it a soft docking.

b)     Wants it, or not, the Federal government will have to accept SSC, if so is the desire, and the outcome of the Las Anod Conference.

c)      PL has no say on the matter, and the only card, and the right one, they can, and should play is to support the desire, and outcome of the Conference, which most likely will end up with an SSC Statehood.

d)     There are ongoing discussions to bring reer Sanaag into the fold, with the expectation of their joining being highly probable more so now than back then when Dr. Galaydh hijacked the Khatumo project, slew, and buried it in a dingy hotel in Hargeysa.

Postscript:

This was by the far the most honest, realistic, if reflective I have seen Oodweyne being in his entire existence. With time, I suppose one matures.

[baala xoofto]

On 1/28/2023 at 3:37 PM, galbeedi said:

For Sool, it is now or never.

 

 

Sool meelna uma socoto. Xaraaradda qabyaaladda ee madax martay caruurta iyo dumarka, wakhtigeeda waa la siinaya.