Yey: the chickens are coming home to roost.

[Sir-Qalbi-Adeyg]

If the president is not another reer puntland or the next transitional government does not adequately represent reer puntland, I doubt puntlanders will be supporting it. If it turns out to be another useless government like the TNG, then it will not have any support from puntland.

 

Yey's departure could be a blessing in disguise for puntland and the people can concentrate on the work and development that needs to be done in puntland instead of worrying about mogadisho and the south.

[Gabbal]

Xiddigo Hiiraale is not in the running. It has been made clear the position is only available to technocrats.

 

Oodweyne, Abdi Guled Fargayah is one of the candidates that will be vetted.

[Gabbal]

Originally posted by Suldaanka:

quote:Originally posted by HornAfrique:

Oodweyne-

 

It has nothing to do with Tolka. That is strictly from the corridors of the State Department.

 

The presidency and prime ministership will change hands. I have it on word come the next change Ahmed Abdisalaan will call himself president and his prime minister will be from the Gedo region.

If that is true, then I hate to say it, but

Puntland's real chickens are about to come home to roost

.

 

I can just, already, imagine the battles that will rage on SOL and Duke/Allpuntland going crazy.

 

Ma sii hub guratay Hornow,,, I am sure you will need "hubka kiisa fudud iyo kiisa culus".

I trust you understand the era of sub-clannish maneuvering is forever over in southern Somalia.

[Koora-Tuunshe]

Originally posted by Libaax-Sankataabte:

 

It is quite accurate that the recent internal strife within the TFG has created a rather risky matrix which may become menacing to Yeey’s political foothold in the South. Having said that, the physical underpinnings which Yeey’s political clout relied on during his rise to power, appear to be undamaged at the moment. Yeey still commands strong support from the weak TFG military. He enjoys rather healthy margin of majority support among the Baidoa MP’s. Zenawi’s still perceives Yeey as the best hope for Somalia, as do by all IGAD leaders except Guuleh. These are the few central matrices I utilize as a yardstick to get a sense of the old man’s political footing. Having said that, the aforementioned facts don't suggest Yeey is forever shielded and not vulnerable in the broadest sense. Yeey still faces few obstacles, and there are few challenges to note. Yeey’s well-publicized friction with certain personalities within the Ethiopian government may well pose a threat to his political survival, if not resolved soon. His somewhat intricate relationship with Mefsin, Ethiopia’s foreign minister, who is said to harbour strong antipathy towards Yeey for his role in the Gheedi standoff, needs not be overlooked. Another catalyst in the political mix is General Gabre whose repute was recently blemished by accusations of bribery and sleaze, and was politically relegated by Zenawi as per Yeey’s angry request. The road is still full of snakes, and the old man is by no means wearing any shoes, but

let us stay in the real world and stick with the few facts so far available.

 

We shall see how things turn out in the next few weeks. As of now, I don't see anything more than another TFG squabbling.

LSK, I hold that same view but you articulated much better than I did. Excellent analysis

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

Ikhyaarta, we will reflect insha Allah all those you raised but first let us watch :

 

Ina Yey doing what he does best...

Can you please attempt a very short look at the responsibilities of the members of the Government? Clearly, the president must sign in to law and accept any appointments from the parliament. Thats basically his job man.

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

Oodka, forgive my cringe worth political blindness but I have to say, if my perception its naive, yours is speculative, conspiratorial and unreasonable. What do have to go on to ascertain why you say to be the truth? On top of that, it doesn't even sound plausible. You think the the competing interest of Igad member could come to a consensus or that Americans are involved to the point telling Somalis who to make prime minister or president. and what person would seek the Somali presidency, know the conditions that come with that office only to let a neighbor tell him what to do?

Peeps, you hatred of the man is deep but get real.

[Poker]

Originally posted by Naxar Nugaaleed:

quote:Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

Ikhyaarta, we will reflect insha Allah all those you raised but first let us watch :

 

Ina Yey doing what he does best...

Can you please attempt a very short look at the responsibilities of the members of the Government? Clearly, the president must sign in to law and accept any appointments from the parliament. Thats basically his job man.

I thought he Yey) said the TFG doesn't exist?

 

Am I crazy or someone is singing in CADAN?

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

Dowlada and Xukumada are not the same. Basically he was saying the cabinet no longer exist= Ministers including prime minister.

[Gabbal]

Originally posted by Oodweyne:

quote:

Originally Posted By Mr. HornAfrique

,

 

I trust you understand the era of sub-clannish maneuvering is forever over in southern Somalia.

If I were you,

dear horn

; I would

not

bet my house in

Seattle

that to be the case, by a long shot, in any case...

 

In other words, the look of things could be decieving, mind you, dear friend..

 

But, then, again, if I am on the winning side of the Somalis political struggle, I would

not

wished anybody to accused me of any

clannish agenda

; just as I believe our

Dukey

of this world will try to move heaven and earth to convinced us that

Col. Yey

genuinely represented the

"most idealistic version"

of that noble idea call

"Somalinimo"

, when he was the head of the

TFG

.

 

Similarly, I am sure of it, that you soon will tell us that any new formation of

post-TFG

arrangement for Somalia, represent the most highly hoped-for

"Islamic creedal governance"

at it's best; particularly, if some fellow from

Gedo Region

happens to have anything to do with it's larger political offices of power, through the formation of "Islamically-tinged"

post-TFG

government for Somalia,... heh,

dear lad

...

On the contrary; no.

 

Do not make the mistake of misunderstanding my response Oodweynow. I said naught about such future legitimization of any TFG/post-TFG Western-formed solution for Somalia. Rather I meant if what I hinted actually transpired then the desired result, at least in so far as subclannish maneuvering is concerned, would not be along the lines of what Suldaanka is hoping it to be.

 

Essentially the response of the sub-clans would not occur in the original pre-ICU subclannish fashion which was but a trademark of the by-gone warlord era. That time is past and such a response as the one postulated by Suldaanka has a slime to none chance of occurring. That was what I meant.

 

Also, such a post-TFG institution would be forced to tow the same lines currently towed by the present TFG and such an organization is not one I personally could support.

 

I dislike the TFG and I abhor the ICU pre-Al Shabaab. A perceived amalgamation of the two, such as you are forecasting, is enough to irk my sensibilities let alone give me any incentive to look at them with new eyes were the prime minister, presidency, as well as the parliament all allocated for the Gedo region.

 

I am an Al Shabaab man though sense and logic leads me to conclude never will such an organization be allowed to consolidate control over Somalia in peace!

[xiinfaniin]

Naxar is missing the point few miles iyo hodhodho...

 

 

This thread exposes the fundamental flaws of Yey's political calculus adeer...whether he survives or not is periphery to that larger point.