Yey: the chickens are coming home to roost.

[xiinfaniin]

As xin sees it.

 

 

I have never questioned Ina Yey’s intention to rule a united Somalia, that’s free from foreign hegemony with her sovereignty intact. That I believe is what he wanted then, and what he longs today. But in my mind his efforts were always akin to a prayer without dhahaarah who also missed to face the direction of qiblah…

 

In 1978, following his natural instincts of yaan laga badin , he defected to Ethiopia, the same enemy he commanded his men to fight against, and faced it in the trenches of 1977 war in opposition to Siyad’s rule. How could he ever reconcile the unbridgeable gaps and the clear conflict of interest between Ethiopia’s resolve to keep the loots of colonial era, and the Somali ambitions to gather whatever it can trace of its parts and unite its people has never been considered in Ina Yey’s political calculations.

 

Five years latter, his bold moves to do whatever it takes to oppose In Barre came back to haunt him. When his militia backed by Ethiopian tanks roundly defeated Somali army at number of border towns, the question of sovereignty rose, and the conflict of interest he previously ignored forced itself into the discussion of how to proceed from there. Ina Yey, though ambitious and bold, was never a strategic thinker. His colonel like tactics and skills could not match with that of Mingeste’s---utilizing Ethiopian government machinations, Mingeste put Ina Yey in prison. Though it’s not fair to blame him the consequence of Ina Barre’s dictatorial rule, Ina Yey’s treacherous act then without doubt broke the virginity of Somali innocence and opened the door for others with varying political motivations to do the same.

 

Fast forward.

 

After he single-handedly succeeded to establish PL as a political entity that allowed him to participate in shaping the Somali affairs, Ina Yusuf finally secured the top seat on the Somali political pyramid. Considering the political realities that were cemented by the long civil war, his succession to power was in many ways a game changer. It even shocked good Yalahow of Xamar as he watched with intrigue as to how the political shoe as it were nicely fitted Yey’s foot. But it was clear from the get go that Ina Yey secured Ethiopia’s backing before he even started competing for the top post---a fact that spoiled what could have other wise been a political genius. How could he marry his ambition to rule a free Somalia with that of Ethiopia’s agenda of wanting a fragile and divided mini states in Somalia then? Quite characteristically, he conveniently ignored this how .

 

When the real challenge confronted him in 2006 in the form of a legitimate opposition that come into being as a result of genuine uprising against the rule of Mogadishu warlords, Ethiopia forced itself into the issue and ultimately invaded the south in the disguise of fighting Islamic extremism. The invasion was a day of infamy, and the pictures of Ethiopian tanks rolling into the Mogadishu and Kismayo shores were depressing. The wound on the national Somali psychic was apparent. For those who were watching the developing stories at that time could notice how clueless the man came across as Ethiopian generals seemed in control of every bit of national power.

 

Today, Ethiopia feels the need to withdraw after it achieved its goals and political objectives, and once again when Ina Yey’s desires clash with that of Ethiopia as it happened before, the colonel come short. But the consequences for him are much dire now since Ethiopia’s latest maneuverings utilizing regional machinations give this colonel two alternatives. The first option is for him to stay on his post, which is reduced to a ceremonial post, and welcome the official arrival of Jabbuuti peace caravan.

 

Well, lets say the second is not palatable to the colonel. It involves retirement. But whether he survives this one or not, one thing is clear: the very power he used to subdue his political enemies is now being used against him.

 

And in that context, the chickens have indeed come home to roost for him.

[ElPunto]

I don't know. I've never seen a more wily politician who has had more comebacks than A/Y. I will count him out when he's in the grave.

[Gabbal]

the very power he used to subdue his political enemies is now being used against him.

Interesting conclusion.

 

What do you think Xiin? Will Yeey retire, accept ceremonial position, or achieve a political coup in the 11th hour?

[Koora-Tuunshe]

This is like a spin of the Tamrat Nega's political conspiracy, an exclusive and ananymous contributor of WardheerNews. This is my response to him.

 

It's political conspiracy but shall we be kind enough to grant it a grain of truth into its content, i would say the exclusion of 30 or so members of *** from the Northwestern Somalia defies the formula of 4.5 rule and the implementation of a federal Somalia as a solution shall be dead. It will take a new movement for this end of centralized government ; the closest group being the convergence of the various Islamic groups as a robust front once again.

 

The bogus content the article champions also seems to suggest two incompatible and conflicting proposed amendments of the constitution.

Rendering the executive power of Abdullahi Yusuf as a ceremonial to be replaced by the current prime minister is invalidated by his suggestion

that it's the deputy prime minister that the ultimate power of the new government will rest on based on his sub-clan, wrongly believed to have mounted the biggest bulk of the resistance to Ethiopia's occupation and thus their compensation for a failing policy. Face Saving!

 

Another TNG of AbdiQaasim? I cachinnated

 

--------------------

[xiinfaniin]

Ikhyaarta, we will reflect insha Allah all those you raised but first let us watch :

 

Ina Yey doing what he does best...

[xiinfaniin]

wpost.

[Jacaylbaro]

Aha ....

[Libaax-Sankataabte]

Xiinoow, If you look around or read the news lately, it all looks as if in the midst of a ferocious political warfare, the iron man of Somali politics has been unexpectedly knocked off his throne. I am truly aware that an imagined world of reality, in the normal fadhi-ku-dirir sense, can sometimes offer a passing comfort that the acidic and always bitter world of guileless truth cannot provide. But unless we literally live in Baashi’s famous Waxa-la-yidhi universe, it is imperative for the esteemed political enthusiast to scour through the details and separate facts from fiction before any political obituary is penned down.

 

It is quite accurate that the recent internal strife within the TFG has created a rather risky matrix which may become menacing to Yeey’s political foothold in the South. Having said that, the physical underpinnings which Yeey’s political clout relied on during his rise to power, appear to be undamaged at the moment. Yeey still commands strong support from the weak TFG military. He enjoys rather healthy margin of majority support among the Baidoa MP’s. Zenawi’s still perceives Yeey as the best hope for Somalia, as do by all IGAD leaders except Guuleh. These are the few central matrices I utilize as a yardstick to get a sense of the old man’s political footing. Having said that, the aforementioned facts don't suggest Yeey is forever shielded and not vulnerable in the broadest sense. Yeey still faces few obstacles, and there are few challenges to note. Yeey’s well-publicized friction with certain personalities within the Ethiopian government may well pose a threat to his political survival, if not resolved soon. His somewhat intricate relationship with Mefsin, Ethiopia’s foreign minister, who is said to harbour strong antipathy towards Yeey for his role in the Gheedi standoff, needs not be overlooked. Another catalyst in the political mix is General Gabre whose repute was recently blemished by accusations of bribery and sleaze, and was politically relegated by Zenawi as per Yeey’s angry request. The road is still full of snakes, and the old man is by no means wearing any shoes, but let us stay in the real world and stick with the few facts so far available.

 

We shall see how things turn out in the next few weeks. As of now, I don't see anything more than another TFG squabbling.

[xiinfaniin]

LSK,

 

Available facts in the public domain suggest a degree of falling out between Yey and the current Ethiopian direction toward Somalia. Putting that in the context of Yey’s long political journey need not be seen as penning down a premature political obituary. Yey’s perseverance and grit to survive, and at times triumph, may be admirable to some but the means he consistently chose and foolish, and easily imitable, tactics he employed are certainly unpardonable to me.

 

I do believe the powers that be see current TFG as a useful political arrangement that still has considerable value. And if available facts are anything to go by, there is no plan to unseat Yey. It’s Yey himself who after surveying the coming political landscape saw unmistakable writings on the wall as it were and decided to make a stance now. If he goes along with his natural instincts of yaan lagaa badin as he did before, his political fate is quite predictable. And that’s what I was on when I penned this thread.

 

Kor waayeel waa wado indho , Libaaxow, and Yey himself today seems to understand the clearly recognizable signs before him. Having said that, I do not particularly see any benefit in the current squabble within the tfg. I think this will be settled rather quickly in the favor of Jabbuuti Peace Process.

 

This little drama will pass Inshaa Allah. I am not sure however if old Yey will come out of it with his stature within the tfg intact. Time will tell…

[NGONGE]

Reminds me of this ! With the usual suspects here too!

 

It is too soon to judge really. Yusuf is buying time and that is an accepted move in politics. Now the ball is on the other side and we wait to see if they drop it (which is highly likely in Somali politics).

[Gabbal]

Yeey's time is over. Ahmed Abdisalaan seems to be heading towards the presidential seat.

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

They say hindsight is 20/20 but apparently, Somalis are an exception to this.

Xiin:

How could he marry his ambition to rule a free Somalia with that of Ethiopia’s agenda of wanting a fragile and divided mini states in Somalia then? Quite characteristically, he conveniently ignored this how

The convenient fact that some of us like to ignore is that Somalia is weak and divided. We will be that way for quite some time and the only way get out through careful, selfless hands to steer this ship. So,if it is as you say, Ethiopia needs no agenda to make Somalia what it already is and will most likely continue to do so for some time. What is more likely is, that the old man and ethio leaders have a common goal of a peaceful horn of Africa. In such a case, not only is plausible, but the only sane thing to do.

When the real challenge confronted him in 2006 in the form of a legitimate opposition that come into being as a result of genuine uprising against the rule of Mogadishu warlords, Ethiopia forced itself into the issue and ultimately invaded the south in the disguise of fighting Islamic extremism.

Legitimate? How So, we must have different understanding of the word. Legitimate, in my opinion and understanding of the ward, would have been for that group to accept the existing frame work and to advance their goals and agenda through parliament, not though the gun.

Furthermore, Ethiopia did not push it self in to the situation. Some here willfully forget that the government was the first to congratulate the courts takeover of the capital, tried ways to find to work with, sent its most senior members to negotiate only to receive some low level members whose sole objective was to stall for time while some silly ambition of taking over the entire country was being pursued on the ground. In return for all the government has done, these crazy mullahs threatened every entity in the country from the northern regions to the government base in baidoa, jowhar, hiiraan, jubba... while some of you cheered them on. Declared jihad on everybody almost on a daily bases and when they got their as.. whopped in every front, oh ethiopia, ah ethiopia this and ethiopia that. Only for them now except that framework they have almost destroyed what was left of that already destroyed country and splinter into a hundred abu hebel groups.

But the consequences for him are much dire now since Ethiopia’s latest maneuverings utilizing regional machinations give this colonel two alternatives. The first option is for him to stay on his post, which is reduced to a ceremonial post, and welcome the official arrival of Jabbuuti peace caravan.

How nice, all that ish about Ethiopia, now you want Ethiopia do your bidding for you and get rid of the old man for once and all. People, get real! Abdullahi Yusuf has few more months to go and the first option requires a change in the charter of the TFG.

That change, am afraid, lacks both time and the will of the parliament which supports the president. It will require a little more then the unholy alliance your your suggesting, nur, ethiopia and the courts. Nur will eventually go the way of all Prime Ministers before him, he will listen to the man who appointed or get to walkin.

[Gabbal]

Oodweyne-

 

It has nothing to do with Tolka. That is strictly from the corridors of the State Department.

 

The presidency and prime ministership will change hands. I have it on word come the next change Ahmed Abdisalaan will call himself president and his prime minister will be from the Gedo region.

[Xidigo]

^^ From Gedo? Lets nominate Hiiraale for Prime minster.He is your hero sax?

[Suldaanka]

Originally posted by HornAfrique:

Oodweyne-

 

It has nothing to do with Tolka. That is strictly from the corridors of the State Department.

 

The presidency and prime ministership will change hands. I have it on word come the next change Ahmed Abdisalaan will call himself president and his prime minister will be from the Gedo region.

If that is true, then I hate to say it, but Puntland's real chickens are about to come home to roost.

 

I can just, already, imagine the battles that will rage on SOL and Duke/Allpuntland going crazy.

 

Ma sii hub guratay Hornow,,, I am sure you will need "hubka kiisa fudud iyo kiisa culus".