Spate of attacks cast doubt over Somali forces’ readiness to take over security

[Deeq A.]

Somalia’s international partners and the African Union are expected to move forward with a plan to start the transfer of the security responsibilities of Somalia to the Somali national army next year, part of a bold strategy that raises serious questions about Somalia’s forces readiness and whether they are ready to take over.

The recent attacks, including a devastating double car bombing in the Somali capital and the latest one on a hotel inside the country’s presidential palace zone, have been such worrisome and embarrassing developments that cast doubt on the ability of Somali security forces to protect the public and the state institutions against the ruthless terrorist group. 

Somali officials insisted that the country has enough security personnel to protect institutions and the capital. Still, they expressed concerns over the lack of adequate intelligence information to prevent attacks that continue to blow the country’s battered psyche.

Western and African officials assisting Somalia in training security forces have noted that corruption and nepotism within the intelligence leadership, along with recent unwarranted purges of important officers, have undermined Somalia’s intelligence capacity, but those changes appear to have made little difference. 

Many Somalis find it hard to reconcile such increasing attacks and the extra restrictive security measures in place. Prior to the subsequent attacks, Somali authorities said they were strengthening checkpoints and closing gaps in the perimeter around the hilltop presidential palace, protected by its high walls and heavy fortifications, to prevent attacks.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed was evacuated to safety inside the African Union force’s base, Halane amid the ongoing siege inside Hotel Reys, located roughly 200 meters from his bedroom last week. The complex attacks lasted over 20 hours and prompted emergency evacuations across the state house.

Concerns of potential attacks have grown recently, with the Somali government releasing statements calling for public assistance in preventing attacks. The statements were in response to subsequent security threat alerts widely circulated across the state institutions and social media.

Last week’s attack shattered the illusions of the presidential palace as one of the few remaining safe havens and even raised concerns for the safety of Somalia’s leaders.

The fallout of the latest attacks, especially the brazen one within the state house parameters, appeared to be swift amid reports of foreign diplomats and other foreigners operating in the Somali capital weighing whether they could stay on given the severity of the situation, which has become increasingly perilous for foreigners in recent months, raising fears among Somali officials that the attacks could diminish the already limited presence and roles of the international donors in Mogadishu.

In the coming year, the African Union mission, known as ATMIS, will begin withdrawing troops from Somalia. Though the decrease in troop levels in the short term has been expected, their final withdrawal date remains to be determined. 

But, the latest security setbacks, which experts believe risk reversing security gains made in recent years, created significant doubts over whether Somali forces can stand up against still-potent Al-Shabab militants after foreign forces withdrawal and whether president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government, widely criticized for politicizing the security agencies, will be up to the task.

Amid a growing sense of caution surrounding the ATMIS mission, the frustrated Somali president, concerned over post-withdrawal uncertainty, has reportedly persuaded senior African Union officials to shoot down the withdrawal plans and hence offered to sign their mandate extension by four more years, according to officials privy with the matter who spoke to Caasimada Online on condition of anonymity.

ATMIS officials have started speaking of ‘sound progress’ with the Somali president on the future security transition plans and mandate extension agreement, confirmed by a recent public statement by ATMIS. The Twitter post has since been deleted amid a backlash by Somalis on social media who were hoping for the withdrawal of the foreign forces next year as part of a deal signed with Somalia’s previous government.

President Mohamud’s approval of the foreign forces’ withdrawal deadline by a further four years dealt a major blow to the Somalis, who see their departure as important psychologically, showing eagerness to see Somali forces in charge after 15 years of foreign forces’ presence.

In the aftermath of the deadly hotel attack, one prevailing fear among Somalis and foreigners alike was figuring out how al-Shabab managed to get inside the presidential palace and slipped past multiple security checkpoints, further echoing concerns about the deteriorating situation, especially after the withdrawal of foreign troops.

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