Has the tide turned? Your thoughts on the ICU and the TFG

[Libaax-Sankataabte]

Three months ago the ICU success was an eye opener for all and sundry. Within the span of a very short period, the world was witnessing the accidental birth of a new faction, more focused and more willing to put a fresh spin on Somali politics. The bitter defeat of the warlords was explicitly ridiculed by the common folks. Almost every Somali in every country was cheering for the ICU to crush the doomed “Anti-terrorism allianceâ€.

 

The ICU marched on while still drunk on its victory … Balcad was first to be captured, Jowhar was next … Booom … reality struck. Somalis were quickly asking one another, war nimankani maxay yihiin? Halkee u socdaan?. What is going to happen to Marka, Afgooye, Baraawe and all the occupied regions in the South. The ICU marched on … Galgaduud falls. Puntland puts on high alert. Cadde Muuse sends troops to central Mudug. Another bloody clan war was all of sudden closer than we thought. Many Somalis were perplexed by the ICU’s adventurous sprint to test the waters in Puntland when there are more pressing issues on their doorsteps. The Immediate locals saw the ICU move as a plot to undermine their stable region and cause a new turmoil. Somaliland was already talking tough against any ICU attempt to destabilize their region.

 

At that same period, Uncle Yeey refused to bow to the shifting sands of political convenience. Yeey rebuffed call for the TFG to join the ICU, and dismissed the group as just another clan militia trying to stir some trouble. The stubborn man became deaf toned on vital issues such as the emergence of this new military powerhouse; the ICU. Rumors flared that the ICU is about to annex Baidoa. Chaos was soon to befall on Yeey’s fragile government. The TFG orders Ethiopian troops in and boy did they enter in droves … more chaos … resignations, cabinet bickering, militia defections, and soon assassinations followed. Yeey's indecision to quickly grab the moment and work with the ICU brought on a new predicament for the TFG. The old man missed the opportunity, albeit in vaguer terms, to rule in peace.

 

Now, my questions are:

 

1. Without failing to appreciate the ICU’s mission which seems to have marched through few local snares, do you think the TFG, despite its lack of a legitimate base of support, still has the opportunity to unite the Somalis under some sort of a real government banner without a bloodshed?

 

2. Is the ICU, which at the moment has less clan diversity than the TFG, the only option we have for a government?

 

What are your thoughts on the ICU and TFG three months later?

 

Bal Odayaashu afkaartooda ha dhiibteen.

[Abu-Salman]

1. Without failing to appreciate the ICU’s mission which seems to have marched through few local snares, do you think the TFG, despite its lack of a legitimate base of support, still has the opportunity to unite the Somalis under some sort of a real government banner without a bloodshed?

 

Well, one of the biggest challenge awaiting any government is to resolve Somaliland secession issue peacfully.

 

Now, the obvious question is principally within which framework could unity be credibly promoted again given that the "Somalinimo" myth didn't prevent mass murders and inedit atrocities in addition to pernicious injustices accross the country?

 

Is not therefore an Islamic state, comforming to our shared religion, the only relevant political entity able to transcend tribal paranoia and vindictness while appealing to all Somalis accross the artificial colonial borders by appeasing fears of renewed institutionalized nepotism combined with mass killings?

 

How could the warlord-maffia recently defeated by our martyrized people in the capital, headed by an autocrat tribal warlords accused of massive Human rights violations as well as numerous assainations in his own fiefdom inspire the much-needed confidence to Somalis regardless of clanic affiliations?

 

2. Is the ICU, which at the moment has less clan diversity than the TFG, the only option we have for a government?

 

How could be a pseudo-government formed in Kenya through Addis-abeba sponsorship be seriously counsidered by a Somali?

 

Is not locally negociated institutions, without any foreign intervention, the primary lesson of the 15 failed, so-called peace conferences?

 

Why the Tigre gang meddling in Somali affairs as testified by their latest "consulting role" in Baidoa which resulted in "immediate far-reaching accords between the Yusuf-Sharif-Geedi trio" seems justified for the TFG when their criminal "friends" are despised in their own country, especially when we have now our capital entirely serein, even more safe than many crime ridden cities?

 

Was not the Tigre-minority dictatorship the main sponsor for the warlords who terrorized us during the past 15 years, not mentioning their key role in systematically sabotaging any sucessful negociation like that of Arta which included almost entirely civil society's representatives?

 

Last but not least, clanical affiliation is no longer of any relevance when we are facing a concerted plot to undermine Islam, our very raison-d'etre.

In fact, not only did the ICU saved our people from indefinite Cia-funded nightmare and their ingrat Tigre patrons, but they also represent the only viable alternative against widespread sate-sponsored corruption and nepotism, susceptible to alienate again Somalis and thus suscite further genocidal attempts...

[Che -Guevara]

The TFG is an agent of the Tigray regime. The events of the last two months clearly demonstrated who is in charge of the criminal outfit that's residing in the city of Baydhabo. Anyone who still believes Yeey and his ilk will deliver Somalis from our current state is simply decieving themselves.

 

We need a peace process for Somalis and by Somalis, without interference from outside. The last 14 conferences failed simply cuz Somalis were not at the helm of these reconcialations.

 

We also need a new political thinking specially those of us from Pland where Yeey's cohorts still rule supreme. The old guard in the Pland must retire or be forced out. The Courts on its part must address the issue of Indhacadde.

 

The courts and Pland control most of Somalia. A goverment of national unity could be instituted between these two parts , and extended to the areas of the country they don't control. Before any of this could happen, Pland must first decide if they will blindly continue supporting Yeey or if they will stand up for the interest of the Somalia, and reject Yeey's along Tigray masters.

[Xoogsade]

ICU is the only alternative and every other political entity should be dismissed. The TFG should never be allowed to exist anymore and must be denied any claim to somali leadership.

 

I think it is cheap propaganda to say the courts threatened Puntland. Puntland is not Cadde Muse and his rule. Puntland doesn't manage the affairs of other somalis outside its bounderies so Cadde Muse's bellicose response to the courts move to Mudug was naked aggression to which the courts replied wisely.

 

The answer from now on should be a full blown war on the TFG and their sponsors in Baydhabo. There is no TFG worthy of anything so we hope to see their accelerated demise and disappearance from our lives.

[OLOL]

LST, there are some of us who are either still caught in the clan and tribal animosities of the past or are Yeey supporters in the closet but hide behind politically-correct rhetoric which is becoming fashionable these days for the fear of ridicule.

 

To answer your questions in simple terms and concepts, I will try to underline few known facts:

- The TFG is basically an illigitimate foreign(Tigre & Meles Zenawi) backed entity( of warlords, by warlords, for the warlords).

 

- The ICU is a legitimate force supported by majority of Somalis and is based on Islamic and Somali principles.

 

Who could unite Somalis?

 

- A warlord government that follows the despised divisive formula of 4.5 where clannism is more important than merit, qualification, competence?

 

- Or Islamic principles where all are equal and united under the DEEN of ALLAH?

 

 

We all know that the ICU came to power thanks to ALLAH and the popular support it gained in Mogadishu (2 Million Somalis).ICU controls a large territory from Hobyo to Buur Hakaba(that is close to 7.5 million Somalis). What is left is Jubba & Shabelle regions ( which are practically allied with the ICU) and the two fiefdoms Puntland and Somaliland.

 

I think we could all support a real peace conference where these groups coupled with civil society, disapora communities and intellectuals ( just like Arta) could come to the table ( in Somali soil with no foregin meddling, there is no need for warlords anymore ) and where a Somali solution to Somali problem will be discussed. The outcome will be based on our religion and the positive aspects of our customs and traditions. Such solution will form an inclusive government led by competent and qualified Somali intellectuals, professionals, technocrats, not by warlords, not by clan opportunists, not by a religious nut-head.

 

So far the ICU leadership have done miracles. They ousted the ruthless warlords, Mogadishu is pacified, thousands of Somalis are coming back to the city and claiming their properties, airports and ports are being rehabilitated and foreign business is competing for re-construction projects.

 

Somalis in Diasporas are formulating ways to take advantage of these business opportunities. We need wells dug, irrigation projects built, schools and clinics built, roads and infrastructure re-built.

You think the warlord TFG led by uncle Yeey is capable of embarking such huge task? you think the inept PM, Ghedi, Meles cry-baby could even formulate such a vision. So far all Ghedi did was create an inflated cabinet with 102 clan opportunists. He and Jurile were able to milk the few handouts from the international community for personal enrichment ( bought villas in nairobi).

I believe the era of warlord invincibilty is gone. I think Somalis are realizing that Ethiopia itself is in trouble and can't do nothing to Somalis who are determined to take back their country from warlords. I hope we all come to realize that Qabiil cant be the basis for QARAN.For those who follow Qabyaalad,they need to reform, re-think and re-evaluate their whole thinking. We are getting our dignity back thanks to ICU and the West already took a note.

[Rokko]

^^lool. This olol dude xishood waa daayey. Caadi ma tihid saaxiiboow. I get jitters when I see matukadeyaasha at fadhi-ku-dirir bars telling others they're our new saviors. What a clanish bs.

 

LST, I think ya being little too opptimistic about this TFG thang. These boys at Baodioa don't even see all that is important to ya or anyone else: a goverment. Them boyz are busy doing their thang (money, money, money) na'mean. Gheedi is turning into a vicious businessman and a new force to be reckoned with na'mean. He is Ethiopia's man of the hour.

 

I say let every region govern themselves na'mean. Yeey must follow the footsteps of Maxamed Abshir, Haashi and other Puntland leaders and retire in dignity na'mean. If USCland wants to join other Somali regions that is an option for the Somalis my brotha. War and bloodshed is not an option. People are tired of bloodshed and someone should remind this TFG to avoid it na'mean.

 

However, if these USC militias decide to attack Puntland, I say crush them and teach this Indhocadde dude and his godfathers in Dhuusamareeb a historic lesson na'mean.

 

PEACE.

 

Good to see everyone. I was off to Africa, Europe, marriage and many other good thangs. Business ... business ... money money.

[Tahliil]

Today I was reading Ali Gedi's formation of his new government... Think of this, most of these thugs were the people who were running around and getting named for different posts in the last 16 years in like 14 conferences.

 

Ali Mahdi formed a government in 1990 who was in that government?

 

Caydiid formed one right after him and who was in it?

 

Others met and formed a government in Ethiopia and who was in it?

 

Ali Geedi formed one today and I can see same old killers, baby-slayers, rapists, and war-criminals and their stooges. Those who were sending them the money while they were doing the killings and mayhem in our towns and cities and to our families and friends, all sitting there, thinking and devising new ways to exploit the weak.

 

14 times and several governments formed...and did you not see the names of Cato and Yalahow and abshir and yeey and boqor and Shaati-case over and over and over and over again...tell me what a magic formula do they posses now, what magic brains did they develop over the past 16 years that will turn things around today, now. I think these hideous and sickening creatures belong to jails and I think we are stupider than they are by even talking about them. This has become ridiculous, and insult to our intellect…it is like thou they have the license to destroy the country and kill the women and the kids and expect us all to name them posts in every government and thus represent us with more ruins and killing.

 

Every time, I see the names of anyone of these shameless murderers, I swear to god I feel like someone put a fire in my eyes, my whole body recoils at the sight of these killers, I feel pain deep down inside. Go ahead read the names of these horrible individuals and you will find my uncle, sitting right in there, in one of the best seats, in his new suit, representing my tribe… through 4.1285 tribal doctrine meant to destroy the nation. I’ve a good, secure life away from these thugs and have no worries (thank god) but these people are destroying what's most dear to us (our families) and they are getting away with it. In fact, out of this, they are getting their names and prestige to new highs.

 

Shame on us, all of us, by giving them the platform in a manner that is so indifferent of the crimes they have committed against us. We should take a strong stand on these people and call them with what they are: baby-killers … Trust me my closest uncle is a thug among these ministries, in fact, he was named three times for three different posts in three different governments and his lot and prestige is doubling simply because he is a blood sucker. I despise him and to all those who listen to him, to those who talk about him, to those who poll his popularity, to those who still think that he can bring about a lasting peace after 16 years of him causing the death and the rape of thousands of Somali women directly or indirectly. Let's not do this to ourselves. Let's not be the mouthpieces of this horrible people. Let’s not deceive ourselves. I think its time for us all to stop the insanity. Name them as war-criminals and put these thugs where they belong….which is INTO THE PAST

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

boy how we like mislead ourselves. LST, your attempts to seem unbaised and in the middle comes through load and clear but I think Nancy Reagan's "There is no moral middle ground. Indifference is not an option" might help you. For example you ask,

1. Without failing to appreciate the ICU’s mission which seems to have marched through few local snares, do you think the TFG,

despite its lack of a legitimate base of support

, still has the opportunity to unite the Somalis under some sort of a real government banner without a bloodshed?

Why on eart does it not have a legitimate base of support? And how did you come to such a conclusion. I don't know about Somaliland and Southerners but I know very will puntland members of Parliament and goverrnment have puntlanders support, even Asha and King Kong. These questions of the legitimacy of have become trite and your repetition of it is not worthy of thinking person. There are also some here whose admiration and support of factions like ICU can only attributed only of their love or hate of certain Somali clans yet are all to ready to paint those who support their government as clanist. How ludicras is it to support a sub-sub-sub clans occupation of southern Somalia under the cloak of religion yet call others clanist for supporting The only legitimate and most inclusive authority in the country? Better yet, who is not a muslim in Somalia? The ICU is a joke and their qabiilist supporters make one want to rethink freedom of speech because there is nothing worst then motivated iddiots.

[Duufaan]

I can only say. Somalia is either closer war or peace. The real issue here is, will court maintain peace in Moqdisho for long time to come, if they do, at least the life will change those people in that region for the better. The issue of Shabeelada Hoose will overshadow the court future. They cannot ignore if they want make transition from local to national. Why it is important, not only justice for people in Shabeelada hoose but also clan's of overthrown warlods are watching

 

For TNG, I already gave up for them. no money, no support from moqdisho and ethiopia. note! although TNG is more representative in the papper, the court has been more open and transparent so far. The nomination for Bare Hiiraale as defence minister will not lift TNG.

 

if not peace,because it never been closer. I am afraid more wars, factions and self declared regions for ever.

[me]

For me the TFG was born dead, because of the 'Federal structure' & the 4.5 formula.

 

The ICU has done a good job so far and I hope that they continue with their postive influence in Somali. I am very pleased with their call for National reconciliation. This is the first time this has happpend in the past 16 years. I hope that the Somali clans can forgive each other and learnto live with each other. We have learned in the past 16 years that no clan is stronger then the other and that no one will have peace if there is no justice. Its either we live together or we die together.

 

My only wish now is that the ICU wins this totally and that the Somali people support them fully. I also wish that maybe in teh near future we can have a limited democracy in our country.

 

The obstacle to the ICU winning this war and uniting Somalia is not the TFG but Pland and Sland. These mini-states are more dangerous to the Somali unity then anything else at this moment. If the ICU finds a way to get these two entities on board then we may see Somlia once again rising from the ashes.

 

I might be a sucker and an optimist but I am tired of thinking gloomy. I just want to think positive about my nation and I hope that the true Somalis win and not the traitors. Warlords should not be rewarded.

 

This goes for Indhacade&Co and The man that shot the first shot in Somalia's civil war.

[Jacpher]

I think the ICU will accomplish more in three months time and win more hearts and minds, if given the chance. They may not be the only option for the country but they’re certainly the only way out of this qabiil ridden conflict. They just announced the 4.5 formula needs to go. If we judge the TFG and ICU based on results, the ICU will come out a winner. They’ve outsmarted and outsucceeded the TFG. The only option the TFG has now is to make peace with them and learn from them. TFG is not one man show but it’s a whole institution that lives to divide, conquer and rule the country in tribal lines. They better get their act together as there’s a new player in the field. We should give the courts the benefit of the doubt though I still think they need to engage the South occupiers before advancing to other regions.

 

NN, so two members that hail from PL gave TFG legitimacy base support! Just two PL represent all of PL inhabitants? Wanna rethink that sxb. Yeey is not even creditable enough in the streets of Bandar Qasim let alone Banaadir or Burco. The joke is on you.

 

Tahliil, I share the sentiment and agree with the description you gave but I’ve a feeling we are a drop in the bucket. It’s time for maryooley to realize and put their own personal interests before that of their qabiil and warlord. Vote for and fund a bloodsucker warlord that lives to kill? Only happens in Somalia.

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

^^ what two members are speaking of because I don't think you understood? Really, the joke is on you when you say .2 formula of the ICU is better than the 4.5 one of the TFG. Like it or not, Somalia is a nation of clans, the only reasonable way to share power is to divide it equally among its clans. You attack this formula but what are the alternatives? For sure its not the ICU formula of one Sub-sub-sub Clan ruling another country. if when can sure of one thing, and one thing only is that this old formula of the icu will never work in Somalia, hide under what ever fake slogans you like.

[Abu-Salman]

Of course, the courts were founded mainly by people from the capital (though from diverse clans).

Having said that, they constantly stated their eagerness to include every competent Somali and that is why everyone could witness that many proeminent courts officials hail from others regions (military chiefs, advisers ect).

 

Now, the incredible "alternative", for some biaised among us, is a bunch of despised warlords accused of every imaginable crime not only against innocent civilians, but also against the country and the environment with consequences that will lingers for many generations to come, it goes without saying.

 

Who is then tribally motivated and favor trivials matters against our national vital interests, not least our hard-won sovereignity?

 

Yet, even more incoherent, these few vindictive individuals do recognize that the ICU saved the innocent population, restored order as well as security, rehabilitated the infrastructures while protecting our higly damaged environment against suicidal deforestation and the concomitant desertification (for a country already largely desertic and internationally considered as a lost cause!).

 

In fact, the Islamic courts didn't hesitate to make all the required sacrifices for these most noble causes, entirely on a voluntary basis.

No need here for vast amounts of msimanaged foreign money that we never see, the courts do deliver their services free of charge, only hoping for their creator's rewards...

[ElPunto]

Originally posted by Xoogsade:

ICU is the only alternative and every other political entity should be dismissed. The TFG should never be allowed to exist anymore and must be denied any claim to somali leadership.

 

I think it is cheap propaganda to say the courts threatened Puntland. Puntland is not Cadde Muse and his rule. Puntland doesn't manage the affairs of other somalis outside its bounderies so Cadde Muse's bellicose response to the courts move to Mudug was naked aggression to which the courts replied wisely.

 

The answer from now on should be a full blown war on the TFG and their sponsors in Baydhabo. There is no TFG worthy of anything so we hope to see their accelerated demise and disappearance from our lives.

The vast majority of Somalis and Africans in general have had their fill of one party rule. Now we have an advocate for that now. Let every entity stay in its region and do something - and then ppl can choose whom they favour.

[NGONGE]

Too soon to judge, Libbax. Give it a year or two before we tell if the ICU is the real deal or not. People are excited about it and believe that things will easily work out for them. But, to my mind, the ICU need to carry on moving very fast if they have any dreams of government. The longer that bodies such as the TFG, the Puntland and Somaliland government are in place, the less the chances of the ICU to control the whole of Somalia (it’s a pipe dream)!

 

It’s no secret that some people have been muttering about the clannish nature of the ICU from day one. However, most well meaning Somalis choose to ignore such ‘rumours’ and are instead choosing to look at the bright side and be optimistic about it all. But the longer the standoff remains, the weaker the ICU’s position will become. The best we can hope for is that the situation remains as it is and that the TFG gets folds like many other ‘governments’ before it. This will still leave Puntland, the ICU and Somaliland as the three big entities to remain from the ashes of the former Somalia. The TFG’s small fish will each hurry back to their respective sides and the game will carry on with new players.

 

Even within the ICU, one wonders how solid is the alliance and how long will it be before the cracks start to appear! I hope they don’t and hope that peace remains but I have my doubts.

 

At any rate, I don’t think Somali politics is worthy of any analysis. It’s chaotic and follows no set patterns (though, as someone mentioned above, the players and power-brokers are always the same, safe one or two newcomers).