A Quick Guide to Somalia in 2026: Business as Usual

[Deeq A.]

The political and developmental challenges confronting Somalia are entrenched and unlikely to change significantly over the next five years. This is notably so for the transfer of security and policing responsibilities from international organizations to Somali authorities. Consequently, seeking to distinguish between Somalia’s current and future challenges is an artificial exercise that has more to do with the aspirations of the international community than with local realities. Change will undoubtedly occur, but while the strategic issues dominating the international agenda in 2026 will be different from those prioritized in 2021, the underlying trends and issues influencing the goals and behavior of Somalia’s powerbrokers and significant security actors will be much the same as they are today: the security marketplace will continue to reflect the primacy of clan-based calculations and internecine rivalries. In other words, it will be business as usual. Read more here

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