Social debate:The real roots of the Somali conflict

[Positive]

Toosiye Scale ( Cabirka Toosiye )

 

This Scale offers an easy way to look and understand the intricate means our social, religious and political aspects are webbed together. It is an illustrative tool which simplifies and makes the challenges we are facing intellectually understandable. Honestly it came to me in a dream state.

 

A) Description of the Scale

 

1. The scale is like a stick or line in horizontal position which has two ends and

marked middle.

2. It has color codes of blue which becomes stronger as it goes from the middle

of the line to the right; green which becomes stronger as it goes from the

middle to the left; and in the middle you find superimposition of the two colors I named and a

third one which is red.

3. The red in the middle quickly loses its strong tone as it mixes with blue to the right and green to

the left. That area of mixed colors is the largest compared to the green area or the blue area.

 

B) Further explanation of the scale.

 

1. The green color is representative for the Islamic sub-culture.

2. Blue for the western sub-culture.

3. The red and the area of the superimpositions is representative of traditional sub-culture and allied

members from the blue and green.

 

C) Characteristics of the Scale.

 

1. The Scale is dynamic in nature. The west end is always trying to tip the scale to its side and the east is

doing the same while the middle shows tendency to relatively slope to the tipping side.

2. The scale works best in equilibrium;

3. The extreme poles of the stick resist sudden tipping of the Scale.

 

D) Examples of Practical applications of the Scale.

 

• About Sharia governed state versus secular state.

 

The green (Islamic minded) want to implement Sharia, and some in the blue

(western minded) want to resist this and instead prefer Secular State.

 

One can say that the scale is already tipped to sharia because the middle, the color superimposed area, prefer Sharia instead of Secular State.

 

•National Somali State versus Global Islamic State

 

Again the blue are promoting the first and green the second.

 

The promoting of Global Islamic State in Somalia is new phenomena and the middle is not buying. The blue seem to have the upper hand in this.

 

• Federal States versus strong National Somali State.

 

It is the red (traditional minded) who are promoting the idea of a federal system; the blue and green want centralized system of government.

 

The traditionalists and their sympathetic allies make up the majority therefore there is nothing which can stand in their way in this.

 

• Somalis of other faiths can’t live inside Islamic Somali State versus religious people will be hunted

down if they do not take over the power in Somalia.

 

Again it is the blue and green that are circulating these ideas.

 

According to the Scale in both cases this could only happen if unkind and cruel elements of the far right or far left took over the power. Hunting of religious people or/and excommunicating of somalis of other faiths are unlikely to happen since the majority of the Somali people are in the middle; the traditionalists just won’t let these to happen in significant numbers..

 

The Scale is wonderful tool. Use it if you will, make it your own if you will but the least I demand is that you call it its birth name which I mentioned above.

 

PS I know this is dry and difficult stuff but it is the best I could offer.

 

The Awakener2

[burahadeer]

what prolonged the crisis is lack of traditional leadership in that part(beletweyn to kismayo).Look at puntland & somaliland both stabilised by the somali xeer.We looking elsewhere for our solutions!

what catapulted the notorious islamists around Mogadishu is the long running conflict there;No leadership & erosion of somali xeer & traditionalists.The somali crisis is" Mogadishu crisis "& we should demand they follow the otha 2(SL/PT).I see no otha solution.No western or Islamic gov't in that part;they have to take an example of wat others succeeded in...GURTI..and then the 3 regions will come together & talk..by then atleast they have peace if they disagree.

No one is going to die of lack of somaliweyn; because people in SL/PL live very good with the meager resources they have;PEACE..that's wat matters. 99.9% of people were not dependent on gov't when we had one,but there was peace, & in such atmosphere u can build & grow even if painfull, and atleast not worrying about gun trotting gangsters.

[Positive]

Thanks for your input Burahadeer.

 

Although the traditional elders excell in peacemaking still their way of thinking is divisive in national level and it lends itself poorly to preserve or emancipate a nation state; theirs in a way is a form of lethargy which the majority of us who share their mindsett have a hard time shaking off.

 

Even so it is the traditional elders who are best qualified to a peacemaking role now but then they should be willing to share the responsibility of the affairs of the nation with the other two elites. The best interest of the people can be served in that way otherwise without compromise it would be about conflict of interest and possibly continuation of the war with all it entails.

 

 

The Awakener2

[Alderman]

The real roots of the Somali conflict

 

Tribalism, high birthrate and to some extend religion.

[burahadeer]

Positive;743439 wrote:

Thanks for your input Burahadeer.

 

Although the traditional elders excell in peacemaking still their way of thinking is divisive in national level and it lends itself poorly to preserve or emancipate a nation state; theirs in a way is a form of lethargy which the majority of us who share their mindsett have a hard time shaking off.

 

Even so it is the traditional elders who are best qualified to a peacemaking role now but then they should be willing to share the responsibility of the affairs of the nation with the other two elites. The best interest of the people can be served in that way otherwise without compromise it would be about conflict of interest and possibly continuation of the war with all it entails.

 

 

The Awakener2

Traditional elders don't lead, they work behind the scenes in mostly consultation & peace making.They don't understand int'l relations.What I meant is they stabilise & then mostly educated ones,business people jump to the wagon.It's sharing...look at silaanyo & his cabinet ...they all highly educated.His chief of staff represent the religious elite as well very close to Dahabshiil.

[Centurion]

I can envisage the political input of clan elders limited largely to an upper house in a future bicameral Somali political system -not unlike the 'House of Elders' of Somaliland- where they are responsible for ensuring legislation drafted is within religious and cultural norms and interests of the nation.

Clan elders, and clan politics full stop - should have no place in government; the Somali consititution should stipulate clearly that clan politics within government establishments is unnaceptable and unconstitutional.

[Carafaat]

Centurion;743861 wrote:

I can envisage the political input of clan elders limited largely to an upper house in a future bicameral Somali political system -not unlike the 'House of Elders' of Somaliland- where they are responsible for ensuring legislation drafted is within religious and cultural norms and interests of the nation.

Clan elders, and clan politics full stop - should have no place in government; the Somali consititution should stipulate clearly that clan politics within government establishments is unnaceptable and unconstitutional.

In the Somali situation Clan is everything and everywhere, denial of it's existence is denial of the reality.

 

The Somaliland constitution doesnt mention anywhere clan or clan formula's nor representation. But still the Guurti holds it to account that all clans are participating and represented. Having said that, I agree with you that clan should not be institutionalized nor mentioned antwhere, still you have to give it a place in society even if it where for the puspose of its sympolic value to many. if you dont, you risk clan politics dominating everything like back in the '60's.

 

Je moet je ogen niet willen sluiten voor de realiteit, maar het lelijke van de realiteit proberen wel zover mogelijk weg te stoppen en een plaats te geven.

 

Positive;685953 wrote:

(This is the last important piece of this series)

 

Proposals for solutions

 

1.Guiding principles.

 

It is better to have guiding principles regardless of what solution type we choose; it is my opinion that it is paramount thus that the following guiding principles which are basic for our existence as a national state should not be diluted, changed or in any other way modified.

 

The principles are:

 

• Somalia is a state with its own flag, with its defined land, ocean and sea, and people.

• Somalis are the people who inhabit Somalia and as people they alone have undisputed right to

determine their fate.

• Islam is the religion of the Somali State and Somali people.

•

The highest national body that has highest authority of the nation is its people, the Somali people,

or their representatives who are elected through a lawful process.

• Somalia is a country where human rights are respected, which lives in peace with itself, with its

neighbors and world in general.

 

2.Outside interventions.

Regardless of the intensity of foreign interference and invasions it is ultimately the responsibility of the Somali people to:

 

• Find solution to their problems.

• Look after their national interests.

• Become united under adverse conditions.

• Realize that no person or group of individuals can be subjugated against his or their will in

extended period of time.

 

We are all capable to notice that our main problem is not the presence of AMISOM or other foreign actors but

it is the absence of national government which came to power on the mandate of the people.

The formation of such a national government which has the mandate of the people should be first priority.

 

3.The leaders of the elites

 

Our Islamic teaching and our country, Somalia, do not belong to any particular group or particular authority but rather their safeguarding is the responsibility of all and every one of us. Therefore the leaders of the elites ought as collective body:

 

1) Reaffirm that they are brothers and sisters of common faith, land and cultural heritage and hence

unity of purpose and action is a requirement.

2)

Work to re-establish a strong functioning national government which has the support of all the

elites.

3) work together so that the wounds of the war could heal.

 

4. Solutions.

 

In order to reach a peaceful resolution for the conflict the following three scenarios, and/ or others, can be explored.

 

• An agreement between the warring factions facilitated and guided among others by traditional

elders. This is preferable by far the best way to go in this stage.

• New national reconciliation meeting of Nairobi style which should be held inside Somalia. This

would not be a new approach but it is worth trying.

 

Alternatively if the above suggestion would not work or could not work the TFG could choose to take a drastic step by considering transferring the power to Somaliland!

 

The TFG before its mandate is finished could choose to hand the power over to Somaliland without preconditions. Although this solution is a radical one still it is worth to be contemplated with. If the legal groundwork could be done by the parliament in Mogadishu and power could be transferred to Somaliland it could force Somaliland to accept it. Such an action would immediately bring at least two major benefits; it would stop the dismembering of the country; and Somaliland would be compelled to whole heartedly contribute to bring peace to the South through every means in its disposal. It would also save the country from more foreign military occupations, death, destruction and all the ills of the war and stop further pouring of foreign jihadists to the country.

 

The End.

Positive,

 

I agree with most of your analysis on the socio-cultural causes and roots of the conflict. However on the solution I doubt if its possible in the Somali case to re-establish a strong functioning national government without having the local, regional dialogue's and reconcialation and structures in place. You have analyzed that most of the 'power' or atleast the initiative is back with the 'tradtionalist' on local level. And without the participation of these local actors or their mandate you risk that any outcome of such a national reconcialation meeting or goverment is not carried nor has the popular support in the country. Which happened with most of the national reconcialation initiatives and goverments launched in the past twenty years. After the Burco Conference in 1991 and Borama in 1993, there were hundrends of local and regional reconcialation meetings in Somaliland. Sanaag and Erigavo alone had 17 traditional 'shir's' in the begin of the 90's between the diffrent clans living in the region, this made it possible that people live in peace and there is governance, in some parts even with the presence of both Puntland and Somaliland.

 

I would recommend reading Mark Bradbury's book, who wrote extensively on bottem up peace building, with focus on Sanaag. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65039/mark-bradbury-ioan-lewis/becoming-somaliland

 

So why not have first local, then regional reconcialation meetings before a national goverment is reinstated? In some places this is already happening, like with ASWJ held area's, Galmudug, there was meeting a month ago in Cadaado organised by Ximan iyo Xeeb, with more then 10 representives of "maamuls" or clan sections from Hiiraan, Shabble's and galgaduud.

[Positive]

Carafaat;769385 wrote:

 

So why not have first local, then regional reconcialation meetings before a national goverment is reinstated? In some places this is already happening, like with ASWJ held area's, Galmudug, there was meeting a month ago in Cadaado organised by Ximan iyo Xeeb, with more then 10 representives of "maamuls" or clan sections from Hiiraan, Shabble's and galgaduud.

That would be an ideal approach!

 

But practically regional and local reconciliations need facilitators who provide resources of man power, money, intellectual and administrative know how; it needs the participation of conscientious grassroots who share common intention for local, regional and national goals;

 

It also needs a trans-regional co-ordinating body which pieces together all the local and regional aspirations into a whole so that it can function in national level as one body. This is not an easy task as you may feel! Besides for many locals and regions, to bring those resources together, is not an easy task for obvious reasons; we have also the pressing need to reconstitute the Nation State without delay.

 

It is thus my contention that the present Somali approach which aims to adopt a National Constitution, as quickly as possible, might be a productive one if it guarantees a decentralized (bottom up) decision making mechanisms. Conversely a Grand National Reconciliation Meeting could be convened inside Somalia preferable for the South first (Somalia); and then when the South is properly settled could the South and North meet. My other suggestions in this thread and in other threads could be valid.

 

The future of Somali Nation State looks bright when the Somalis show willingness to compromise

 

The Awakener2

[Carafaat]

Centurion;743861 wrote:

I can envisage the political input of clan elders limited largely to an upper house in a future bicameral Somali political system -not unlike the 'House of Elders' of Somaliland- where they are responsible for ensuring legislation drafted is within religious and cultural norms and interests of the nation.

Clan elders, and clan politics full stop - should have no place in government; the Somali consititution should stipulate clearly that clan politics within government establishments is unnaceptable and unconstitutional.

I agree with the idea that there should be stric seperation between State and Clan. But still if you don't create a platform(seperate from Parliament and administration) for clan elders and clan politics you risk that the clan focuses and becomes dominant factor in goverment, risking a total infection. S

 

 

So what I imagine is a Guurti not like the Somaliland one making legislation, but one that has complete mandate on clan and cultural issue's. Which doesn't intervere with goverment issue's and goverment doesn't intervere in clan related issue's. This way you creat a distraction for the clan politics played in the Guurti instead of the goverment.