President HSM must be allowed to flow his own foreign policy without interference.

[galbeedi]

For the last 100 days, we all have been watching president Hassan Sheikh in action or missing in action for  certain serious  matters. For those who oppose him, almost everything he had touched resulted in disaster, while others see a mixed bag of good and bad moves. During his term as the leading opposition to Farmaajo regime, HSM was not only unhinged, but immersed himself to respond on  every move Farmaajo and company did. Presidents or those who were in power before should always measure their statements for they could find themselves in the same situation.  The YouTube archives are full of his current and former statements contradicting each other on every major issue.

 

Many supporters of the former regime seem to be delighted about the political stumbles and the contradictions of HSM. Within 100 days, a major war had exploded between Al-shabaab and Ethiopia, a well known Mogadishu hotel was bombed and stormed by the terrorists while no one has confirmed even the death of the men who entered the hotel. Emergency efforts to engage the terrorists and save the civilians took almost over two hours. Ethiopian military leaders had landed in Garoowe, Baidoa  and Hiiraan without consulting the national government. Targeted killings and assassinations are back not only in Mogadish, but other southern towns like Marka and Baidoa.  

 

Although targeted killings and hotel bombings were reduced in major ways during Farmaajo government,  in scheme of things in Mogadishu, these insecurities are expected to happen regardless of which government is in power, because, the principle causes of these insecurities still exist . Fahad Yassin had deployed many under cover officer in the streets to reduce hit and run targeted killings, but their base, safe houses and operations including tax collections and capacity is intact, as always during Farmaajo years and now.

 

In this article my focus is not about Mogadishu or the stumbles of Hassan Sheikh, but how we the outsiders who comment and analyze the moves of the president and the prime minister. We are all jumping up and down about what we perceive to be the wrong political moves  or other pronouncements of the regime, especially in regard to the neighboring countries like Ethiopia and Kenya.. Other than motion pictures and few statements from the government and others, we don't have any real grasp of what are the foreign policies of the HSM''s regime  or what was discussed with foreign leaders. In this country, and even around the world today, major things are done behind the scene. Furthermore, elected leaders like the president has the privilege of conducting their own foreign policy without the interference of the public or others. 

 

Many of us,  including me,  are blindsided by our regional biases, our loyalties to the last regime or our antipathy of the current president and those he surrounded himself with. Many had already concluded HSM as nothing but a corrupt oligarch using his office to enrich himself and his backers, while others consider Farmaajo as saint who is infallible just like the Ayatullahs of Iran. Yet, the logic and the truth are in the grey area which is difficult to measure if you have'nt already made your mind.

 

Personally, sometimes I try to measure things and evaluate my positions. In fact, the biggest beef I and many others have with president HSM is his foreigner policy.  We thought His trip to Egypt and involvement of the Nile river quarrel was unnecessary and reckless. A neutral foreign policy or zero problems with neighbors would be the right approach , so we thought,

 

But, despite what we see or think, leaders have more in depth information and political goals that is sometimes difficult to understand with  the naked eye. in other words, HSM is aware like most of us about these Nile river conflicts or the geopolitical issues of the region.  His trip to Egypt and other places are calculated political strategy that differ from the Farmaajo administration.  While the Farmaajo and Abiy Ahmed relationship eliminated the Addis Ababa Hajj for many regional leaders, it didn't help much to defeat  Al-shbaab or enhance national security. HSM might have seen a different Ethiopia than the one Farmaajo courted four or five years ago.

 

The Ethiopia of 2022/2023 is totally different than the Ethiopia of 2018. The country has been weakened by real civil. The real civil war we had in Somalia was from 1988-1994. After that period,  what we had was nothing but tribal greed, petrol dollar fueled Islamic movements, foreign meddling and disfunction. In Ethiopia, hundreds of civilians are killed by ethnic militia almost daily.  Unarmed civilians are killed within towns, roadways and villages, some even burned alive. The federal government doesn't have any power to intervene or bring peace to the locals.  Abiy Ahmed had failed in almost everything he touches. He could not win wars to the end, and couldn't bring peace to end the war. At the moment he is toothless tiger. And don't even try to read their blogs where genocide and exterminations are pronounced openly.

 

If the president of the republic decides to change the policy of the former government, he has every right to do so.  We should know that elections have consequences . Being a leader means making tough decisions and owning the responsibilities. HSM had decided to have strong relationships with many nations that Ethiopia might dislike for their own reasons. That doesn't mean he hates Abiy or doesn't desire good relationship with Ethiopia. While we might disagree with him , we shouldn't condone or welcome the disastrous moves of regional leaders to make the Hajj to Addis.  Laftagareen have every right to fear and prevent the land grabbing policies of HAG politicians in Lower Shabbelle, but he shouldn't undermine the foreign policy of the national government. He should be condemned as such.

 

When Al-shbaab attacked Ethiopia few weeks , we were all shocked. No one could exactly pin point the main reasons of this attack. I thought it was a campaign to undermine Abiy or move the extremists from JUbbaland to Ethiopia proper. Others had pointed to different directions. Yet, one of the most intriguing issue about that border was the way Al-shbaab commanders forsaken those young Somali kids to the slaughter house. Don't get me wrong those foot soldiers have only themselves to blame for their adventures of joining a murderous movement, but the majority of these are poor country side kids looking a meal and a shelter.  As soon as they reached the Ethiopian side of the base , the commanders have burned all the trucks that brought the foot soldiers including the motorbikes during the night. When the war concluded, the foot soldiers were unable to even evacuate their wounded comrades. They were either dead or captured. The intension was to push them inside without even viable logistics.

 

If you ask the criminal leaders of Al-shbaab, they would quote Tariq Bin Zayd who burned his boats while conquering Andalusia. There is nothing to compare here with Tariq Zayd, other than make a headline for their Ethiopian incursion.  Prime minister Hamza Barre called those young men who stormed AlHayat hotel as the childeren of "{ Jahanaba) hell, but I would rather focus on the crime bosses who lead these kids. Some are even promoted as ministers while those they used as foot soldiers used as firewood.

 

What I am getting is that we have no real intelligence to evaluate or have access for internal government deliberations, as such , those who have the responsibility to govern must make their call for better or worse. Thus HSM must be given the opportunity to flow his designs.  If he thinks joining the western led group of Kenya, Egypt and others, so be it. If he thinks Abiy Ahmed led Ethiopia is a corrupt and outdated fake dictatorship that should be avoided , he has every right. Besides, the ugly Amhara will not stop until they are crushed for good, and if HSM thinks to avoid that ugly quarrel , we should support him.

 

Finally, I have come to the conclusion that we can't pick and choose the foreign policies of the national government, and we can't condone the ugly moves of the regional leaders to cozy up with  the military leaders of the dying empire that can't even defeat a landlocked TPLF. Ethiopia doesn't have any capacity to threaten Somalia today. During the border war, most of the fighting was between Somalis ( Al-shbaab and Liyu police ).

 

And one more thing. Mustafe Cagjar should stop worrying about the highlander wars in Ethiopia and must seal his region from the Oromo and Afar. He should stop sending soldiers to north and defend his own region. As our friend Khadaafi used to say, let the empire destroy itself and free our people.

 

 

[Qurac&qansax]

well done galbeedi. Well analysed article. Very balanced

[Qurac&qansax]