Al-shbaab has been deployed to Ethiopia, Finally.

[galbeedi]

The long awaited deployment of Al-shbaab to Ethiopia has finally happened.

THere is a big war going, but we don't have any media who has the capacity to get there and file some serious news. All we got is Youtubers in dark rooms showing us pictures and fake news. So, let us ret to analyze the info we are getting from the Somali regional security leaders.

 

Since the rise of Al-shbaab in Somalia  around 2006, they never attacked inside Ethhiopia despite the easy  access to  penetrate the border.  Najib Gardaad, a Nairobi based Kenyan journalist had written a long essay few years ago  to shed some light on how Al-shabaab selects its targets. He investigated how Al-shabaab refused to target Ethiopia despite the major wars that took place between the extremist movement and TPLF led Ethiopian army and the atrocities the Ethiopian forces had committed inside Somalia,

 

He debunked the false narrative which  had described the strength of the Ethiopian  army as the main reasons Al-shbaab avoided to engage or attack Ethiopia. He argued that a suicide bomber willing to die doesn't care whether he targets a hotel, military checkpoints or army barracks. Furthermore, the border between Ethiopia and Somalia doesn't have barb wires, walls or rivers to discourage those willing to cross. THe Ethiopian army and the Somali Liyu police forces only control roads that cross the border and sometimes make random patrols in some  area to intercept vehicles carrying contraband.

 

Mr. Najiib attributed the Al-shbaab attacks which reached as far as Kampala, Uganda and even Burundi as Ethiopian strategy to destabilize the economies of east Africa while they were growing to double digits. The Ethiopian economy was among the fastest in the world reaching 10% which was huge achievement. Mr. Najiib was lamenting about the constant Al-shbaab attacks inside Kenya which went from border towns to big commercial malls inside Nairobi. He even mentioned a local Somali owned airlines blown by a suicide bomber i his own seat which miraculously landed safely. He discussed the deep connections between former Al-shbaab leaders including Ahmed madoobe, Mahad Karatey and other who were in soome cases were captured and released from Ethiopian jails.

 

With Al-Shabaab controlling border districts within Gedo, Bakool, Hiiraan and Galmudug, why they never bothered to attack Ethiopia.? They have every excuse on the books to target Ethiopia, especially when their forces were inside Somalia. Yet, Al-shbaab seemed to direct their forces only to Kenya and Somalia. 

 

. If you are 17 or 18 years old  destitute and poor  kid in Bakool, Diinsoor, Qoryoolay, Jalaqsi or Dhuusamareeb, you will be delighted to be fed, clothed, trained and even offered a wife and get paid while they  brain wash you  as a  holly warriors. In fact, it is like joining the marines or national army.  THese young men do not decide who to kill or where to be deployed, they are blind mouse or a mad dog let loose among the targets chosen by their bosses just like mafia soldiers who are told to pull the trigger.

 

By now, anyone with two-digit IQ knows that these Wahabi mad dogs are deployed by foreign intelligence while carrying the name of Islam. Since the American people will not accept the deployment of their soldiers to these unknown places where they can't even find in the map, these crazy terrorists will do the job. Some are called YPG, TPLF, Boko Haram, Al Nusra or Al-shbaab in the case of east Africa. So, the deployment of Al-shbaab to Ethiopia has begun.

 

According to a colonel of Somali LIyu forces in Af Dheer and Liibaan of the Somali region of Ethiopia, this new Al-shbaab plans of attacks inside the region had started some two years ago when the war between the TPLF and Ethiopian forces started in the fall of 2020. They had already made the necessary contacts with the elders of the region, recruited foot soldiers and trained them in Jilib and Saakow in the Middle Jubba region which  is controlled by Al-shbaab. Just like the way  foreign intelligence operates, they transported their weapons deep inside the region and  buried them trenches. The boys were already inside after they concluded their training.

 

Sources inside Somali Galbeed describe these Al-shbaab attacks and movements as well calculated deployment that will last months if not years. Most of the people recruited are from Liibaan, Jarar and AfDheer regions. They belong to the sub clans of Ahmed Madoobe and the Gare community of Liibaan. These were the former allies of the TPLF regime that was deposed by Abiy Ahmed few years ago. According to these sources these forces are two groups. The main Al-shbaab forces with battle wagons and technicals had came from JUbbaland regions while the others were cells that was activated from Ceel Kari and Jarar.  This wasn't an ambush or hit and run clashes. The Al-shbaab force that crossed from Bakool area had descended upon a Liyu police chewing Qat all night and unaware of the situation. Close to 200 of those were overun and their weapons taken. Those who came from behind the Liyu police line had cut the highway connecting Godey to Afdheer, and as we speak while the border to Bakool is secure, Al-shbaab is already inside Afdheer region. After the conclusion of  war in Caato and Yeed, the LIyu crossed to Bakool and killed more than a dozen of civilians for revenge and accused them of harboring   terrorist group. If this is the attitude the Liyu to kill innocents, they will definitely face a long insurgency and hostile populace.

 

THere are two reasons that makes these Al-shbaab attacks deadly for Ethiopia. First the Liyu police traditionally is a paramilitary force trained by the TPLF to target the Somali people and mainly civilians. Few years back they achieved some success against the Oromo, but lately they couldn't stand a chance to similar forces with the same strength as the war between the Affar and Somalis had shown. THese kind of forces doesn't have any chances against Al-shbaab. The second dilemma, Ethiopia doesn't have a well-trained cohesive force anymore. The Amhara are concentrated in their region to fend of the TPLF attacks and save Amhara civilians from Oromia while provoking both Abiy, Oromo, TPLF and everyone else. If reports of Al-shbaab reaching west Hararghe are true, the Oromo itself will explode and Abiy might not have huge forces to deploy  over two thousand kilometers he shares with Somalia.

 

President Mutafe Cumar must build better forces and rely on his own strength than wait the Ethiopian army. Also, the ONLF who were trying to take over the Somali region had been sidelined by Mustafe. They don't have any chances of taking over, and must wait the next election in 2026. We don't know yet, but even the ONLF itself could be part of these groups since their bosses in Nairobi support the deployment of Al-shbaab from Kenya to Ethiopia.

 

Now, this new war could be very dangerous for some while it might bode well for others. Some of my friends believe that this deployment of Al-shbaab  to Ethiopia could be good news for Somalia and Kenya, and both of them might facilitate the movements of Al-shbaab from Jubbaland to Ethiopia. Others believe that the flat lands of JUbba can't protect Al-shbaab if the Somali forces and those from Jubbaland attack them and the mountain regions of Afdheer and Liibaan will be their new bases. Personally, I do believe that Al-shbaab can't survive inside Ethiopia and the only way they could move there is because of logistical support from Kenya, Jubbaland and the Americans. 

 

Here are some of the major reasons Al-shbaab had deployed to Ethiopia.

 

There are no concrete evidence to indicate one way or another , but there are political and economic reasons that point to certain directions.. The energy prices are going to the roof, and that false theory of climate change has been discarded by almost everyone. Both Kenya and Somalia want to extract natural gas and oil from the Indian ocean as soon as possible. In order to attract that investment, Jubba area must be secured. There were extensive meeting between Ahmed Madoobe and the British and American ambassadors for the last few months. I don't believe these guys are meeting him for drought relieve or building democracy. Madoobe had handpicked  the prime minister and will be moving to major regional moves.

 

Among those moves are to completely stop two major development projects from China to the region. The first is to stop the construction of the gas pipeline China wants to connect from Godey to Djibouti. Both Berbera and Garacad are shorter distances, but the Chines want to deal with someone like Omar Ghelle whom they have strong relations. The Americans want to stop this with help of Al-shbaab and ONLF. The later had already attacked the project and killed some Chinese and Malesian workers in 2006/07.

 

Second, the Americans don't want the Belt and Rood Investment (BRI) which will soon cross the Persian gulf port of Gowdar, Pakistan to the Indian Ocean and to Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan and deep inside landlocked African countries. Theses are involved couple of Somali ports, railways and roads. America want to shut down this now.

 

Abiy Ahmed might have survived the TPLF war, Ahmara non stop complaints and Oromo skirmishes, but will not survive this new geopolitical chess.

 

While we don't wish Al-shbaab or terrorist groups even to our worst enemies, if those who supply Al-shbaab with money, weapons, bombs, uniforms and other logistical help, want to  take them away from us and move to other places, we would welcome it. But if the move is to create another proxy war between Ethiopia and Somalia on behalf Egypt and other evil Arabs, may God help us.

The reactions of Ethiopia could be deadly as well. 

Nimankan dadkii inoo keenyay hadday ina dhafinanayaan waan soo dhaweynaynaa. 

 

[Khadafi]

3 hours ago, galbeedi said:

The long awaited deployment of Al-shbaab to Ethiopia has finally happened.

THere is a big war going, but we don't have any media who has the capacity to get there and file some serious news. All we got is Youtubers in dark rooms showing us pictures and fake news. So, let us ret to analyze the info we are getting from the Somali regional security leaders.

 

Since the rise of Al-shbaab in Somalia  around 2006, they never attacked inside Ethhiopia despite the easy  access to  penetrate the border.  Najib Gardaad, a Nairobi based Kenyan journalist had written a long essay few years ago  to shed some light on how Al-shabaab selects its targets. He investigated how Al-shabaab refused to target Ethiopia despite the major wars that took place between the extremist movement and TPLF led Ethiopian army and the atrocities the Ethiopian forces had committed inside Somalia,

 

He debunked the false narrative which  had described the strength of the Ethiopian  army as the main reasons Al-shbaab avoided to engage or attack Ethiopia. He argued that a suicide bomber willing to die doesn't care whether he targets a hotel, military checkpoints or army barracks. Furthermore, the border between Ethiopia and Somalia doesn't have barb wires, walls or rivers to discourage those willing to cross. THe Ethiopian army and the Somali Liyu police forces only control roads that cross the border and sometimes make random patrols in some  area to intercept vehicles carrying contraband.

 

Mr. Najiib attributed the Al-shbaab attacks which reached as far as Kampala, Uganda and even Burundi as Ethiopian strategy to destabilize the economies of east Africa while they were growing to double digits. The Ethiopian economy was among the fastest in the world reaching 10% which was huge achievement. Mr. Najiib was lamenting about the constant Al-shbaab attacks inside Kenya which went from border towns to big commercial malls inside Nairobi. He even mentioned a local Somali owned airlines blown by a suicide bomber i his own seat which miraculously landed safely. He discussed the deep connections between former Al-shbaab leaders including Ahmed madoobe, Mahad Karatey and other who were in soome cases were captured and released from Ethiopian jails.

 

With Al-Shabaab controlling border districts within Gedo, Bakool, Hiiraan and Galmudug, why they never bothered to attack Ethiopia.? They have every excuse on the books to target Ethiopia, especially when their forces were inside Somalia. Yet, Al-shbaab seemed to direct their forces only to Kenya and Somalia. 

 

. If you are 17 or 18 years old  destitute and poor  kid in Bakool, Diinsoor, Qoryoolay, Jalaqsi or Dhuusamareeb, you will be delighted to be fed, clothed, trained and even offered a wife and get paid while they  brain wash you  as a  holly warriors. In fact, it is like joining the marines or national army.  THese young men do not decide who to kill or where to be deployed, they are blind mouse or a mad dog let loose among the targets chosen by their bosses just like mafia soldiers who are told to pull the trigger.

 

By now, anyone with two-digit IQ knows that these Wahabi mad dogs are deployed by foreign intelligence while carrying the name of Islam. Since the American people will not accept the deployment of their soldiers to these unknown places where they can't even find in the map, these crazy terrorists will do the job. Some are called YPG, TPLF, Boko Haram, Al Nusra or Al-shbaab in the case of east Africa. So, the deployment of Al-shbaab to Ethiopia has begun.

 

According to a colonel of Somali LIyu forces in Af Dheer and Liibaan of the Somali region of Ethiopia, this new Al-shbaab plans of attacks inside the region had started some two years ago when the war between the TPLF and Ethiopian forces started in the fall of 2020. They had already made the necessary contacts with the elders of the region, recruited foot soldiers and trained them in Jilib and Saakow in the Middle Jubba region which  is controlled by Al-shbaab. Just like the way  foreign intelligence operates, they transported their weapons deep inside the region and  buried them trenches. The boys were already inside after they concluded their training.

 

Sources inside Somali Galbeed describe these Al-shbaab attacks and movements as well calculated deployment that will last months if not years. Most of the people recruited are from Liibaan, Jarar and AfDheer regions. They belong to the sub clans of Ahmed Madoobe and the Gare community of Liibaan. These were the former allies of the TPLF regime that was deposed by Abiy Ahmed few years ago. According to these sources these forces are two groups. The main Al-shbaab forces with battle wagons and technicals had came from JUbbaland regions while the others were cells that was activated from Ceel Kari and Jarar.  This wasn't an ambush or hit and run clashes. The Al-shbaab force that crossed from Bakool area had descended upon a Liyu police chewing Qat all night and unaware of the situation. Close to 200 of those were overun and their weapons taken. Those who came from behind the Liyu police line had cut the highway connecting Godey to Afdheer, and as we speak while the border to Bakool is secure, Al-shbaab is already inside Afdheer region. After the conclusion of  war in Caato and Yeed, the LIyu crossed to Bakool and killed more than a dozen of civilians for revenge and accused them of harboring   terrorist group. If this is the attitude the Liyu to kill innocents, they will definitely face a long insurgency and hostile populace.

 

THere are two reasons that makes these Al-shbaab attacks deadly for Ethiopia. First the Liyu police traditionally is a paramilitary force trained by the TPLF to target the Somali people and mainly civilians. Few years back they achieved some success against the Oromo, but lately they couldn't stand a chance to similar forces with the same strength as the war between the Affar and Somalis had shown. THese kind of forces doesn't have any chances against Al-shbaab. The second dilemma, Ethiopia doesn't have a well-trained cohesive force anymore. The Amhara are concentrated in their region to fend of the TPLF attacks and save Amhara civilians from Oromia while provoking both Abiy, Oromo, TPLF and everyone else. If reports of Al-shbaab reaching west Hararghe are true, the Oromo itself will explode and Abiy might not have huge forces to deploy  over two thousand kilometers he shares with Somalia.

 

President Mutafe Cumar must build better forces and rely on his own strength than wait the Ethiopian army. Also, the ONLF who were trying to take over the Somali region had been sidelined by Mustafe. They don't have any chances of taking over, and must wait the next election in 2026. We don't know yet, but even the ONLF itself could be part of these groups since their bosses in Nairobi support the deployment of Al-shbaab from Kenya to Ethiopia.

 

Now, this new war could be very dangerous for some while it might bode well for others. Some of my friends believe that this deployment of Al-shbaab  to Ethiopia could be good news for Somalia and Kenya, and both of them might facilitate the movements of Al-shbaab from Jubbaland to Ethiopia. Others believe that the flat lands of JUbba can't protect Al-shbaab if the Somali forces and those from Jubbaland attack them and the mountain regions of Afdheer and Liibaan will be their new bases. Personally, I do believe that Al-shbaab can't survive inside Ethiopia and the only way they could move there is because of logistical support from Kenya, Jubbaland and the Americans. 

 

Here are some of the major reasons Al-shbaab had deployed to Ethiopia.

 

There are no concrete evidence to indicate one way or another , but there are political and economic reasons that point to certain directions.. The energy prices are going to the roof, and that false theory of climate change has been discarded by almost everyone. Both Kenya and Somalia want to extract natural gas and oil from the Indian ocean as soon as possible. In order to attract that investment, Jubba area must be secured. There were extensive meeting between Ahmed Madoobe and the British and American ambassadors for the last few months. I don't believe these guys are meeting him for drought relieve or building democracy. Madoobe had handpicked  the prime minister and will be moving to major regional moves.

 

Among those moves are to completely stop two major development projects from China to the region. The first is to stop the construction of the gas pipeline China wants to connect from Godey to Djibouti. Both Berbera and Garacad are shorter distances, but the Chines want to deal with someone like Omar Ghelle whom they have strong relations. The Americans want to stop this with help of Al-shbaab and ONLF. The later had already attacked the project and killed some Chinese and Malesian workers in 2006/07.

 

Second, the Americans don't want the Belt and Rood Investment (BRI) which will soon cross the Persian gulf port of Gowdar, Pakistan to the Indian Ocean and to Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan and deep inside landlocked African countries. Theses are involved couple of Somali ports, railways and roads. America want to shut down this now.

 

Abiy Ahmed might have survived the TPLF war, Ahmara non stop complaints and Oromo skirmishes, but will not survive this new geopolitical chess.

 

While we don't wish Al-shbaab or terrorist groups even to our worst enemies, if those who supply Al-shbaab with money, weapons, bombs, uniforms and other logistical help, want to  take them away from us and move to other places, we would welcome it. But if the move is to create another proxy war between Ethiopia and Somalia on behalf Egypt and other evil Arabs, may God help us.

The reactions of Ethiopia could be deadly as well. 

Nimankan dadkii inoo keenyay hadday ina dhafinanayaan waan soo dhaweynaynaa. 

 

A good analysis on what might be happening. We are all in the dark. But one thing  thing is for sure, their is something breweing in a hot pot.   I will yet call it Al-Al-shabaab and I will tell you so.  Abtigis, aka Mudane Cagjar is probably a good guy but do not ever forget that he was directyly appointed by  whom I have ever called the biggest neftegna (amhara colonial settler) Abey Ahmed.  Before that, the monster was Cabdi Iley.  I beg you to  question. Have their happended anything else since then?

 

If bush soldiers of ONLF who bravely I might say stayed in the Bush during the Cabdi Iey and AUN  martyrs like Nuur Huure Ciraqi  and nafte u hure the martyr and the intellectual Doolaad who went from European life to semi-deserts to Soomali-galbeed. When the Somalis rose and ONLF speeded up it attacks in 2007, aljazeera noticed it. The shrewd and vicous TPLF chose a man an tree electrcian who used to be called and then be asked to  climb up trees. He was chosed becouse of his absolute loyalty to a degree that even we Somalis with our culture we shocked. They launched a propoganda channel and made the whole area a no go area. Al-shabaab became the cow milk for TPLF. Diverse attacks by ALFR and OLF ONLF and 20 other various groups were blamed on Al-shabaab.

 

Galbeedi, Al-shabaabs strategy was been wellknown, they made calculated decision to withdraw from Mogadisu after a vicious campaign of liberation. They isolated themselves in the fertile regions and shifted their strategy to win the peoples hearts and brain wash the youth with toxic non islamic whabism. Why would they now venture in Ethiopia? Somethings doesnt add upp here. According my sources the IC with Turkey Told Mudane XSM "either to eliminate Al-shabaab or its you who will be eliminated by them, amisom will not stay forever". XSM told openly the people to brace them for war.  Hence why the many international trips. Turkish drones are landing in Somalia.   Farmaajo said the same thing but he was populist and lacked the backing of IC.  The IC strategt then was lets to contain them. They do not have sea port hence are not so dangerous. That changed with Afghanistan.

Alternative theories? Might it be die-hard ONLF soldiers  U-WSLF staging last ditch attacks and Cagjar who doesnt want aknowlidge that using the al-shabaab game to unite Ethiopia as the orders given to him?.

 

Rabbi ba og xadiiqda

 

 

 

 

[Duufaan]

Khadafi

Your analysis makes sense first time because this time you added the role of IC and the new geopolitics. It wasn’t long time ago when Sahan for first time purposed peace deal with Al shabaab. I also believe Mahad Salad and some other galmudug boys are involved as well to facilitate the whole plan where Deni was dropped the last minute.

 

However I do believe Alshabaab will loose this adventure. First they do not get numbers and have hard time to recruit beyond  deep south  and west Somalia.

Secondly the Liyuu police outnumber them although not armed well.  And Finally the aggressive and the die hard Liyuu police with some help from Ethiopian military will clear Alshabaab no more than three weeks more.