Maxaa sababay in 20 sano kadib ay isku qiimo noqdaan lacagaha dollar-ka iyo Euro?

[Deeq A.]

Doolarka ayaa sii xoogeysanaya marka loo eego  lacagaha waaweyn  ee lixda ah (6) ee looga qiyaas qaato qiimihiisa, waxa uu kor u kacay 108.50, isaga oo gaadhay heerkii ugu sarreeyey muddo 20 sano ah, maalgashadayaashuna  lacagta doolarka u arkaan lacagta keliya ee la isku haleyn karo waqti-xaadirkaan, lacagta Euro’da oo kamid ah lixdaas lacagood hoos u dhaceeda wuu sii socdo; Isu-dheellitirka Euro-Dollar ayaa hoos u dhacay ilaa heerka 1.0000, taas oo kadhigan in labada lacagood ee Euro iyo dollarka ay isku qiimo noqdeen 20 sano kadib. Arinkaan oo kale waxa uu dhacay December 2002 wakhtigaas oo labada lacagood isku qiimo noqdeen, halka wixii waqtigaas ka dambeeyay ay Euro’du ka awood badneed Dolarka.

Lixda (6) lacagood ee uu doolarku ku saleysanyahay ama loo fiiriyo waa kuwaan soo socda.

1. Lacagta Japan
2. Lacagta Euro
3. Lacagta Canada,
4. Lacagta Ingriiska
5. Lacagta Sweden
6. Lacagta Switzerland

Hadii lixdaan lacagood dolarku ka awood bato waxa ay ka dhigantahay qiimaha doolarka aduunka oo dhan sare ayuu u kacay.

Waa maxay sababaha keenay in ay isku qiimo noqdaan labada lacagadood.

Waxaan halkaan kusoo koobeynaa ilaa iyo afar sabab (4) oo horseeday in qiimaha lacagta Euro’da ay hoos u dhacdo qiimaha lacgata Dollar’kana sare u kaco;

1. Maraykanka oo si xowli ah kor ugu qaadaya heerka dul-saarka.

Bankiga dhexe ee Maraykanka (Fed) wuxuu kor u qaaday heerarka dulsaarka bishi la soo dhaafay ee Jun 75 dhibcood taas oo heerka dulsaarka ka dhigtay 1.75%. kororkaas  oo noqday kii ugu sareeyay 28-kii sano ee la soo dhaafay sidaas oo kale bishaan aan ku jirno ee July waxaa la filayaa in bankiga dhexe ee Maraykanka (Fed) markale go’aan kasoo baxo.  Halka dhanka Euro dulsaarka uu yahay mid Minus ah (-) sidaas darteed labada dal farqiga dhanka dulsaarka ah ayaa keenay in dolarku xoogeysto lacagta Euroda ah ne ay hoos u dhacdo. Waayo maalgashadayaasha reer-galbeedka ah iyo kuwa dunida kale ku nool ee aan muslimka aheyn waxa ay faa’ido u arkaan  dulsaare sare, sidaas darteed wadanka uu dulsaarkiisa sareeyo bankiyadiisa iyo suuqyadiisa saamiga ayey lacagahooda u leexinayaan iyagoo lagahooda dollar u bedelanaya iskana iibinaya lacagaha kale.

2. Cabsida iyo walalka laga qabo hoos u dhac dhaqaale (Economic Recession)

Yurub marka loo eego Maraykanka waxay uga dhawdahay in uu ku dhaco hoos udhaca dhaqaale (Economic Recession). Waxaana loo sababeynayaa walalka laga qabo hoos udhaca dhaqaalee ee ku imaada dagaalka u dhaxeeya Ruushka iyo Ukraine. Marki uu bilowday dagaalka Ruushka iyo Ukraine, waxaa koror ku imaaday  qiimaha shidaalka aduunka oo dhan kaas oo si xun u saameeyay Midowga Yurub. Dhanka kale waxaa la aaminsanyahay in Maraykanku uu san la kulmi doonin hoos udhac dhaqaale hadii uu la kulmana uu si degdeg ah uga soo kabsan karo marka loo eego dalalka kale ee aduunka oo ay kamid tahay Yurub, taas ayaa ah sababta labaad ee uu qiimo u yeeshay lacgata dolarka looguna kalsooni badanyahay waqti xaadirkaan.

3. Dhibaatooyin ay gaar latahay qaarada Yurub

Sida lawada ogyahay waqooyiga yurub waxaa kuyaal dalal dhaqaale ahaan adag sida Jarmarlka, Holland, Faransa iwm, halka dhanka koofurta ay ku yalaan dalal dhibaato dhaqaale lasoo kulmay welina qaarkood ay la daalaa dhacayaan dhibaatdaaas dhaqaale sida wadamo ay kamid yihiin Gariiga, Spain, Talyaaniga taas oo keentay in dulsaarka Euroda sare loo qaadi waayo iyadoo laga cabsi qabo in hadii dulsaarka kor loo qaado ay dalalkaan koofurta Yurub ay ku adkaato in ay deyn qaataan maadama dulsaarka sareeyo, hadii ay qaataana ay galaan dhibaato deymeed maadaama ay yihiin dalal dhibaato dhaqaale la soo kulmay welina dareemaya.

Sidaas darteed in bankiga dhexe ee Yurub uu ku dhiiran waayo in uu sare u qaado heerka dulsaarka ayaa kalsooni dare siisay lacagta Euro’da halka lacagta dollar’ka kalsooni lagu qabo ay sare u qaaday ugu dambeytiina sababtay in Euro’du hoos u soo dhaco ilaa ay la qiimo noqoto lacagta Dollarka.

4. Walwalka laga qabo in Ruuska uu gaaska ka jarto Yurub

Ruushka ayaa  jaray tubada gaaska dabiiciga ah geysa Jarmalka isla markaasna marta kanaalka Nord Stream-1 sababtana ku sheegay in uu dayactir ku sameynayo kanaalkaas ilaa 21 bishaan July. Waxa jira walaac ay reer Yurub ka qabaan in mudada dayactirka ay ka badato waqtigi loogu talagalay isla markaasne keeni karta in ay saameyso warshadaha Yurub iyo wax soosaarkooda horseedi kartana dhibaato dhaqaale iyo kalsooni daro laga muujiyo dhaqaalaha Yurub taas oo ugu dambeyn sii xoojineysa walwalka laga qabo lacagta Euroda awoodne siineysa lacagta Dollar’ka oo maalmahaan ka awood badisay lacaga lixda ah ee aduunka ugu saameynta badan isla makaasne  ah kuwa lagu qiyaaso qiimaha dollar’ka.

W/Q: Dr. Saadaq Mohamud Hassan (Ph.D Economics)
saadaqyare0120@hotmail.com

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