Hassan Sheikh could be the first president to fail before he is out of the gate.

[galbeedi]

In his first speech when he won the election, he said" there will not be a political revenge". 

Folks, this is the first lie this president has openly said by doing the opposite. Today, goons ordered by Mahad Salaad raided the home of  former NISA chief Fahad Yaasin by taking security details including bullet proof cars and computers from his home while he is away. I know many among the opposition were mesmerized by the former intelligence chief while seeing every thing under the rock as a serpent trying to kill them.., it is a government protocol to keep safe former intelligence directors who have the knowledge of big state secrets. Since these people always flow the money, they are probably targeting Fahad Yaasin for the interest of foreign groups like UAE. This is not the first time Fahad was targeted including the attempt kidnaping in Djibouti while he was on board of Turkish airlines.

Yesterday morning , bulldozers and heavy equipment attacked makeshift homes and residents in " Kaxda" district early in the morning by claiming to be enforcing by laws. These are Fahad Yaasin community district in Mogadishu. How about those in Shiircole and others places?.

THere are scenarios that president Hassan Sheikh might not govern as last presidents, but he might be even impeached before the first year due to his tribal actions and greed.

The news from Baidoa is Hassan Sheikh is trying to create new boundaries while abandoning the agreed upon regions.

First, he is trying to create the Banadir state coupled with Lower Shabeelle which is part of South West region. That move is unacceptable to the people of KG and the indigenous population of Shabeelaha Hoose. By the way, this isn't the first time Hassan has waged war in lowers Shabeelle and even Hiiraan against the D...r community. A clan dominated national army militia attacked people in Janaale, KM 50, Marka and other places to uproot the locals. The locals resisted and repulsed that effort. Under Farmaajo and Laftagareen , Lower Shabbelle was calm and peaceful due to control of KG. 

Both the people of Lower Shabeele and Laftagreen will not allow to take away their ports and one of the most important regions which compliments the whole KG. Unlike Shariif Sakiin, C/caziiz Lafta is former RRA member who knows one or two things about the greed of those the president is backing. He told Hassan Sheikh that he will be taxing any vehicle that is leaving or entering Afgooye.

This delusional president had the nerve to take Saransoor, the would be future leader of KG,  and his HAG henchmen to Baidoa and expect flowers. C/caziiz has refused the entrance of these people to the lunch banquet or even the Badoia palace. The problem about Somali clans is that they are their own eco chambers, living in clan bubble and not even realizing the mood of the public. There are reasons why we have friends outside our sub clan circles or leaders hire outside their tribe for counsel and advice. It is like Farmaajo taking Barre Hiiraale to kismaayo, how would Ahmed Madobe react?.

Now, this scenario of pulling Gedo from Jubba and joining Lower Shabeele to Banaadir is none starter. The D...r community from north, central and south Somalia will not allow this. Hassan Sheikh will only create more wars and strive.

If that is the case, how about the other corrupt and greedy group called the D block? do they object these moves? . I don't know, but I heard, C/laahi Dani was promised to create a H...art state from Sool and easter Sanaag as one and half state. Some observers say that the corrupt Puntland elite will never let the Sool& Sanaag people go as independent states for fear they might flow their own interest and even vote against vthe wishes of Garoowe. Somaliland will see this as destabilizing and will join among those opposing Hassan Sheikh. 

Folks, while we are talking about Al-shbaab, security and state building this man is busy creating more tribal homelands for his clan. He might only rule from Galmudug to Mogadishu while everyone else is either objected him or stays away.

If he flows this route, he will be probably be  impeached or worst could create a civil war. Laftagareen isn't alone. He already objected the rumored presence of Egyptian intelligence in Mogadishu. He also has friends in higher places. Even the Americans are talking about integration KG to Ethiopian trade by building roads and trade routes to off set the Chinese presence in the region.

Ahmed Modoobe want to get rid of Gedo from his domain , but that is impossible.

Fear is already griping the Mogadishu. A friend of mine told me that military men with civilian clothes are robing cell phones from the people at night. Gangs are rooming free and so on. I hope he is wrong.

Hassan Sheikh is out of touch. He appoints a dozen clan members and rushes to Baidoa where the wounds of the elections are still not healed. Traveling there is a good move, but why take with you with those who are political enemies of Laftagareen?

One big thing that I would like to state is Hassan Sheikh should know from the beginning that he isn't supported by the public. Have you seen any spontaneous public support from Burco, Borama or Boosaaso? no. There were zero public supoort in Baidoa, Kismaayo, Garoowe, Laascaanood or even in Mogadishu, except those who were spraying bullets at night to the wary neighborhoods of Mogadishu, and we know who thoise people are.

We thought that reclusive and quite man Farmaajo has to wait another four years before he rides back because of public cry ( Tolow waa halkii C/laahi Dani e dadka miyuu sixray) for his return. When I saw Joe Biden and company welcoming Hassan Sheikh, I knew he won't succeed, because if America supports you , it usually means the public doesn't.

Waxa ka sii daran, ninkii Farmaajo lacag la'aani ma hayso, hase yeeshee N&N waxay tidhi shacabkaa guri u dhisaye. How can you you stop that kind of movement. We are building house for the poor and honest president who is renting a house means the guy who flowed him is a theif with half dozen mansions. Bal adba ka jawaab.

I knew the selection was the most corrupt " Saylad" market ever taken place in Somalia, but I didn't know it might take down the whole system down this time around. WE might not even get a corium to approve the prime minister or even a secession of the parliament. Everyone feels to be a " false witness" and would like to either disappear or hide. Last two years of Hassan Sheikh was terrifying for members of the parliament with dozens who spoke out being murdered in a day light. You were either hide in your hotel or be killed. With Mahad Salaad it could be worse.

At the moment , we are waiting his third acceptance speech. The first one was the night of the election, another one took place when Farmaajo handed him the presidency, and now we are waiting a third one for inauguration which might take place in an empty parliament chambers.

Tighten your seat belt is the slogan of the new gang. Watch and and learn.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[baala xoofto]

1 hour ago, galbeedi said:

If that is the case, how about the other corrupt and greedy group called the D block? do they object these moves? . I don't know, but I heard, C/laahi Dani was promised to create a H...art state from Sool and easter Sanaag as one and half state. Some observers say that the corrupt Puntland elite will never let the Sool& Sanaag people go as independent states for fear they might flow their own interest and even vote against vthe wishes of Garoowe. Somaliland will see this as destabilizing and will join among those opposing Hassan Sheikh.

  That is just a pipedream. 

[baala xoofto]

1 hour ago, galbeedi said:

There were zero public supoort in Baidoa, Kismaayo, Garoowe, Laascaanood or even in Mogadishu, except those who were spraying bullets at night to the wary neighborhoods of Mogadishu, and we know who thoise people are.

Having few lost souls shouting your name in Laascaanood or Boorama couldn't save Farmaajo's sinking ship. A life lesson for any cunning politician, invest your effort in places that can lend you a life line in your day of need. 

HSM only needs to consolidate Mogadishu and surrounding regions. As Mogadishu alone can sustain his gov't expenses including army pay roll. Also If he manages to consolidate other HAG regions like GalMudug and HirShabeele, he will be in a much more powerful position come 2026. 

JL's Ahmed Madoobe is the weakest link, not only is he in his 10th year in power, and has a lot of opposition inside his own region. But also Kenya will not be as the solid foreign power that was sustaining him as it where during Farmaajo's days.  Ahmed Madoobe himself understands that fact and will try to keep a low profile as much as he can. 

All these leaves Said Deni in a very difficult position. 

[Che -Guevara]

5 minutes ago, baala xoofto said:

HSM only needs to consolidate Mogadishu and surrounding regions. As Mogadishu alone can sustain his gov't expenses including army pay roll. Also If he manages to consolidate other HAG regions like GalMudug and HirShabeele, he will be in a much more powerful position come 2026. 

You haven't figured out Southern politics.  It's these regions that will turn on him much like Deni and Madoobe turned on Farmaajo.

Alliances come and go, and the clan is not always determining factor.

[Che -Guevara]

Galbeedi;

I gave up on HSM the moment he appointed Mahad Salad as the head of NISA. And he seems to lack the ability to control his clan folk head honchos.

[baala xoofto]

48 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

You haven't figured out Southern politics.  It's these regions that will turn on him much like Deni and Madoobe turned on Farmaajo.

Alliances come and go, and the clan is not always determining factor.

I think a lot of HAG politicians understand how naked they were in the face of Farmaajo's onslaught without solid regional entities that they can use as a fall back. 

I think HSM understands this more than anyone else. In fact, these are the sort of issues that had to talk about during their days holed up inside Jazeera Hotel. 

With a 1 Billion dollar budget (70% of which is foreign donations) under his control and the 5,000 soldiers that are trained in Eritrea that he could use which ever way he likes. I think he can put in place an effective administration in the HAG regions that could sustain themselves. 

 

[Samafal]

3 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

Galbeedi;

I gave up on HSM the moment he appointed Mahad Salad as the head of NISA. And he seems to lack the ability to control his clan folk head honchos.

Why NISA is so important to you? How many of the Farmajo's appointed heads increased your confidence in him?? Did you gave up on him when he made Sanboleeshe the head of NISA as well?

Galbeedi, all these years you have been writing you predict things and sometimes tell us your dreamed up stories but none of them were realised. Isn't time you give up old man ?

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

8 hours ago, galbeedi said:

First, he is trying to create the Banadir state coupled with Lower Shabeelle which is part of South West region. That move is unacceptable to the people of KG and the indigenous population of Shabeelaha Hoose. By the way, this isn't the first time Hassan has waged war in lowers Shabeelle and even Hiiraan against the D...r community. A clan dominated national army militia attacked people in Janaale, KM 50, Marka and other places to uproot the locals. The locals resisted and repulsed that effort. Under Farmaajo and Laftagareen , Lower Shabbelle was calm and peaceful due to control of KG. 

Shabeellaha Hoose dhan ma rabo markaan. Under the misguided advice from his neo-qabyaaladists, he wants to create a new Greater Banaadir region, an expanded Banaadir, created from carved deegaano from Shabeellaha regions.

The map below shows what he and his neo-qabyaaladist delusionally think they can get. He wants to create a new Banaadir state for Xaayoow speakers from as far as Warsheekh in the east, as far as Balcad in the northeast, as far as Lambar Konton and Bariire to the southwest and as far as Afgooye to north. They think this is the 'historical' Banaadir that was created by gumeystihii Talyaaniga. What a delusion.

He failed in 2014 wanting to separate Shabeellaha Hoose from KG and he will fail again miserably.

[Che -Guevara]

7 hours ago, baala xoofto said:

I think a lot of HAG politicians understand how naked they were in the face of Farmaajo's onslaught without solid regional entities that they can use as a fall back. 

I think HSM understands this more than anyone else. In fact, these are the sort of issues that had to talk about during their days holed up inside Jazeera Hotel. 

With a 1 Billion dollar budget (70% of which is foreign donations) under his control and the 5,000 soldiers that are trained in Eritrea that he could use which ever way he likes. I think he can put in place an effective administration in the HAG regions that could sustain themselves. 

 

Effective regional admins HirShabeele and Galmudug will be a welcome change. That said, one needs more than his clan and regions to gain or stay in power.

So far the troops, the Somali troops are diverse than ever. It's not personal army but he has more remaking NISA into a personal force.

[Che -Guevara]

2 hours ago, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:

Shabeellaha Hoose dhan ma rabo markaan. Under the misguided advice from his neo-qabyaaladists, he wants to create a new Greater Banaadir region, an expanded Banaadir, created from carved deegaano from Shabeellaha regions.

The map below shows what he and his neo-qabyaaladist delusionally think they can get. He wants to create a new Banaadir state for Xaayoow speakers from as far as Warsheekh in the east, as far as Balcad in the northeast, as far as Lambar Konton and Bariire to the southwest and as far as Afgooye to north. They think this is the 'historical' Banaadir that was created by gumeystihii Talyaaniga. What a delusion.

He failed in 2014 wanting to separate Shabeellaha Hoose from KG and he will fail again miserably.

He will have a bigger problem in Hiiraan if he starts changing borders.

[Che -Guevara]

7 hours ago, Samafal said:

Why NISA is so important to you? How many of the Farmajo's appointed heads increased your confidence in him?? Did you gave up on him when he made Sanboleeshe the head of NISA as well?

The country's intelligence service  is always key. Fahad was competent than the rest. How he deployed this resource is another matter. I don't object anyone leading the agency as long as they are competent enough. We can all agree Mahad Salad is not. I  hope he does a good job for the sake of the country.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

1 hour ago, Che -Guevara said:

He will have a bigger problem in Hiiraan if he starts changing borders.

Reer Hiiraan actually like one-gobol maamul goboleed, reasoning Hiiraan has always been the only intact undivided gobol from 1960.They always wanted that oo madaxweyne, xarunta maamul goboleedka isku helaayaan. Xasan Sh. ayaa ku qasbay inay ku biiraan Shabeellaha Dhexe. 

[galbeedi]

Samafal, why you acting dumb? 
you know a country where people assassinated without notice and bombs blowing markets , you need a competent director not a political hack deployed to insult and agitate inside parliament. 
the top five executives of NiSa came from different backgrounds regardless of clan. The young officers value the prestige their title carries and the salary. If you immersed with clan litmus test we will all fall?.

 

This is the most important job of all in country where insurgency is active. We don’t need dogs that supposed to bark or campaign operatives fir the dear leader. 

By the way, your boy Dani is out of the race to be prime minister. It is confirmed 

[galbeedi]

This HSM has been tribal since day one. The temporary constitution says two or more Gobol would make a region, yet he made Galmudug which was one and half. 
 

if some of you think the internal security and governance of Somalia could be fixed by Magda Salaad and Sanblookshe, be my guest. 

[Samafal]

1 hour ago, Che -Guevara said:

The country's intelligence service  is always key. Fahad was competent than the rest. How he deployed this resource is another matter. I don't object anyone leading the agency as long as they are competent enough. We can all agree Mahad Salad is not. I  hope he does a good job for the sake of the country.

But you did not know Sanbalooshe or Fahad could be competent as they did not have any security background or had any meaningful managerial job so what makes you think Mahad can not be competent?