Has Western Influence in the Horn waned?

[Che -Guevara]

""He is a son of bitch but he is our son of a bitch."

It has been the policy of the West to find and support a local sheriff to do their bidding in any particular region. They financed him handsomely, trained his troops, and more importantly ignore his brutality despite their professed support for human rights. The sheriff in the context of the Horn was Zenawi or broadly the TPLF. The natural progression of continued oppression is the local population will one day rise, no longer fearful, and overthrow the oppressor.

Then came the day Ethiopians were no longer afraid of the TPLF and the result was Abiy Ahmed. Unlike the TPLF, it seems Abiy did not play the West's game. I personally think Abiy had a falling out with the West not because he was anti-West, but simply because the West still had a soft spot for the TPLF, the very organization that frustrated Abiy at every turn. It had him in shackles. Abiy was so afraid of what the TPLF might do,  he had to send his family abroad. It only made sense for the West to prefer TPLF over Abiy. The TPLF terrorized the Horn into submission. It was one place that Americans did not have to worry about as they rampage through the Muslim world.

Everything came crashing down when the TPLF attacked the Northern Command. The TPLF's justification was Abiy was already massing troops near Tigray. They also argued Abiy's dalliance with Afwerki had more to do with destroying Tigray than it was to bring peace to the region. As they say, the rest was history. Despite the TPLF's best effort and the West's tacit support, today TPLF is confined to Tigray.

Abiy is now selling himself as anti-imperialist and Pan-Africanist. As it stands today, the West does not have much influence, over Abiy and of course Aferwki. They have a lot of influence over IOG as Djibouti serves as their base of operation. Kenya was always the West's ugly child in the region since the days when Jomo Kenyatta pushed Jaramogi Odinga (Raile Odinga's father] of out the post-independence government. Jaramogi was pro-east, and Jomo was pro-west. Since then, the West never had to worry about where Kenya stands on any given issue.

That leaves Somalia. The country is the weakest link but Farmaajo allied himself with Abiy and Aferwki, but the West has the most influence over Somalia as they pay the country's bills. In today's current political situation, the West has been accused of being inconsistent. Some accused the West of supporting Farmaajo, while others say it has too much control over Somalia's politics. The famous Zenawi coach is replaced by 'fruitful discussions with Kate Foster in Xalane compound.'

During Abdullahi Yusuf's reign, the West pressured Yusuf to resign, and many are expecting the West to do the same thing by forcing Farmajo to step down. So far, no such happened, and Farmaajo survived many events from prior September 19, 2020 events to the supposed coup. Farmaajo is different Abdullahi Yusuf in some ways. Unlike Yusuf, Farmaajo's support political base [regional presidents] is from non-D Block regions. The public around the country generally likes him, and the opposition is generally weak and disunited. The only thing the opposition agrees on is their disdain for Farmaajo. 

Like Ethiopia, the West did not come out and say Farmaajo should leave. Their harshest statement stated is that they will take action against spoilers. After five years, Farmaajo is still in Villa Somalia.

So, has the West's influence waned? 

 

[galbeedi]

10 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

So, has the West's influence waned? 

Che, it isn't only waned, but the American diplomatic establishment has lost both its prestiege and ears on the ground. Public opinioun is the foundation of foreign policy. THey have zero idea of what is going on in other countries.

Have you seen Anthony Blienken, the secratary of state asking Kenya to help both the Ethiopian civil war and Somali elections?

Yesterday, Dina Mufti, the Ethiopian foreign ministery spokesman said" “Instead of taking matters that concern Ethiopia to third parties, we invite the U.S. and other countries to engage with us directly.

 

[galbeedi]

5 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

During Abdullahi Yusuf's reign, the West pressured Yusuf to resign, and many are expecting the West to do the same thing by forcing Farmajo to step down

What these people don't understand is that president Farmaajo isn't in a trsnsitional government. He is the elected leader of the federal government of Somalia. He will leave office if he loses the election. No other ways.

In fact, it is Farmaajo who is sending UN envoys, undesirable Amisom officer and others to their homes packing. He is the one forcing others to leave Somalia.

WE all know that the hungry kid, Rooble was disptached from Djibouti to create new crises to open the door for Americans and others to create chaos as usual. 

News flash for all spoilers including USA:

Farmaajo is ready for the election win or lose. Are you guys ready to face him?

Biixi is barking from Hargeisa, Omar Geelle is desperate, and Kenya is worried. 

[Duufaan]

The world has changed fast for last two decades and the pandemic increased the speed of change. The white population( White European) was 25% in 1960 but end of this decade it will be be around 5%. Why this is important?. The skilled white population are dying without transferring their skills to next generation as they did for centuries. For next decades you have minority becoming majority without skills.  That will basically end the dominance of western civilizations in the world any way. In addition, the western liberal system was free of corruption for centuries but that is no longer true in political system and media. There are no independent political class anymore, specially in U.S.A. America congress can not pass as ingle domestic bill but a foreign bill passes 99%. Empires collapses inside.

For Africa, they never allowed to share technology skills transfers, even simple things like modern farming techniques. The only thing they were interesting was raw materials. Now there are others who are willing to do business with Africa, offering deals. For eastern Africa, the western interest has been security issue because it's strategical location, bordering middle east. With population growing alarming speed and urbanization, East Africa need rapid economic development and that requires political changes. People are asking changes and no one can maintain the status queue. It does not seem western countries are willing to help the African to move the next level, they  rather want to maintain the status que. 

In Somalia the Zenawi group(damaljadiid, Aarjaan and Jeegaan) are fighting for their survival and hoping the West will save them from Farmaajo and his supporters. This election is a historic and will decide which direction Somalia will go. Forward with Farmaajo team or backward with Faroole and Hassan Shiekh. I do not see anything between

[Duufaan]

A Tale of Two Anti-Somalia Conflict Entrepreneurs – Puntland Post

PUNTLANDPOST.NET

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It is the predicament of Africa that some Western expatriates can summon the courage to claim expertise on problems in… Sii akhri

Has Western Influence in the Horn waned?

Of course if you hire people like these two to report and betray nations with more than 1000 years existence. 

I wonderful article written by By Mulugeta Adematu

[Arafaat]

Don’t focus on personalities, and playing the nationalistic cards but try to counter arguments. Matt Brydens last article on Somalia was quite interesting and presented a unique perspective, and have not read a single piece presenting counter arguments. 

[Duufaan]

1 hour ago, Arafaat said:

Don’t focus on personalities, and playing the nationalistic cards but try to counter arguments. Matt Brydens last article on Somalia was quite interesting and presented a unique perspective, and have not read a single piece presenting counter arguments. 

 Matt Bryden has no business talking about Somalia  politics rather setting up the political agenda. Those who need Math Brydens support to lead Somalia are failed politicians. For first time Somali has  options to take advantage of the new geopolitics without choosing sides.

[galbeedi]

4 hours ago, Arafaat said:

Don’t focus on personalities, and playing the nationalistic cards but try to counter arguments

Have you seen the constant tweets of those two (Rashid Abdi and Matt Bryden) during the Tigray war?. Rashis said Ethiopian cabinet ministers were booking flight to escape from Addis.

THese paid hacks will be unemployed if Somalia becomes stable. 

On 12/31/2021 at 6:15 PM, Duufaan said:

I wonderful article written by By Mulugeta Adematu

I think this writer summed up everything with few words. That is real indebt unalysis that should put these guys out work.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

14 hours ago, Arafaat said:

Don’t focus on personalities, and playing the nationalistic cards but try to counter arguments. Matt Brydens last article on Somalia was quite interesting and presented a unique perspective, and have not read a single piece presenting counter arguments. 

The personalities are not inseparable from their lies, widaay.

For a long time, these deceptive grifters used their pens and institutions (International Crisis Group among them) against Soomaali state. International organs like the U.N. and Western media repeated their lies. Some still do. Plus, they are wanted in Soomaaliya and sentence in absentia. They cannot stand seeing a strong and united Soomaaliya.

[maakhiri1]

Jaajuuskani ma quusto miyaa? There are few others including Haruun macruuf who desperately want to bring down Somalia 

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

16 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:

Jaajuuskani ma quusto miyaa? There are few others including Haruun macruuf who desperately want to bring down Somalia 

Haaruun, in addition being a paid reporter of U.S. mouthpiece news agency, was a paid informer/analyze of a private intelligence agency based in U.S. His name, among many, including C/raxmaan Ceynte of Heritage Institute, was exposed a few years ago online. He was also investigated by hay'adda Nabadsugidda two years ago.

Here pictured with him is that anti-Soomaaliya, secessionist-paid lobbyist neocon, the infamous Peter Pham:

[Che -Guevara]