PM Abiy announces he will go to the frontlines to lead the army

[Arafaat]

5 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

I don't subscribe to that, but I am saying there is no other way of holding Ethiopia together. I don't see a scenario that accommodates different linguistic groups who are demanding greater autonomy and diverse political parties with diverging interests. PP will simply replace EPRDF should Abiy and his Amhara base succeed in subduing Oromos and Tigrians,

I don’t think that will happen for three reasons;

1. All groups regions and ethnicities are armed, and the country won’t have energy nor the financial resources to continue waging more destructive wars against ethnic insurgents, that the next time might have more genuine sympathy from other ethnic groups or forge real alliances. 

2. the one common political aspirations all regions and groups share is that they wamt greater self-determination and say in their regions and affairs. In the last three years the regional governments and leaders have had a taste of gaining more political operating space independently from the centre without fear of direct repercussions. Just look at the Oromo, Afar and Somali states utilising the regional state security machinery for disputes of boundaries with neighbouring regions. The centre won’t be able to put the hated puppets in place that only take directions from the centre, Ethiopia won’t be able to turn the clock back. 

3. Ethiopia has many foreign adversaries within the region and outside, that gladly would take up the opportunity to further support insurgencies, rebel movements that further destabilise the country to the edge of collapse. 

But you do have a point, it Abiy wins his war against the TPLF/OLA, that it will set some kind of an example or signal to regional rebels and groups that they can’t their fight to far as TPLF/OLA have done by aspiring to dismember Ethiopia or vying for succession from Ethiopia. But this will only take off the sharper edges  from potential opposition groups, rather then completely subdue political opposition that is vying for regional autonomy or greater democracy. Which will force opposition groups to operate more savvy within the boundaries of the reasonable avenues. I am assuming Abiy will be rationele and the war victory won’t further feed his hubris. 
 

[Che -Guevara]

Arafat,

I hope you are right. This will spare the region a great deal of misery.

[Che -Guevara]

Video has sub-titles. His emphasis on Amhara is telling.

[Che -Guevara]

TPLF leadership is selling the war as an existential event.

 

[Arafaat]

3 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

TPLF leadership is selling the war as an existential event.

Sounds as if they are trying to justify the purpose of this futile war and the tremendous cost for the Tigray people, and that the leadership seem to fearing their own people rather Abiy. 

[Che -Guevara]

On 12/6/2021 at 2:11 AM, Arafaat said:

Sounds as if they are trying to justify the purpose of this futile war and the tremendous cost for the Tigray people, and that the leadership seem to fearing their own people rather Abiy. 

They have to sell it as such considering people are going hungry and young people are asked to sacrifice themselves. For the time being, it is an easy sell as Abiy and Amhara extremists are using genocidal language. 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

Fagfagtii Tigrey saan maa u dambeysay? They thought this was 1991 again miyaa. Iyagoo afar milyan ah ayee rabaan dad shan jibaarkooda ah ciribtiraan. 

[galbeedi]

On 12/8/2021 at 10:30 AM, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:

Fagfagtii Tigrey saan maa u dambeysay? They thought this was 1991 again miyaa. Iyagoo afar milyan ah ayee rabaan dad shan jibaarkooda ah ciribtiraan. 

It seems the TPLF is just lives for the moment. They had zero strategy when they were in power other than prolong their rule. THey attacked anyone who would have helped them for their future. THey never learn.

They attacked both Eritrea and Somalia, the two nations that helped them. Now they attacked the Affar who supposed to be their ally. Why attack the Afar? Even if they cut the highway from MIlle, the Djibouti-Dire dhabe-Addis railaway could the job of delivering goods to Ethiopia.

Since the proxy war failed, what would the Americans do?

Let us see. For them the war and the regime change polivy isn't over yet. I could be wrong, but I think the Americans will change their target from Ethiopia to Ertirea. They will use both Sudan and Egypt to depose Asias Afwork, and if they succeed doing that then the TPLF might wage another war from the north. 

It was very strage war. The only think I predicted correctly was the fake Oromo Liberation Army whowanted to ride the TPLF caravan. THey were useless from the start.

[Che -Guevara]

54 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

What would the Americans do?

Staying with the message, security continues to deteriorate

. 

 

[Che -Guevara]

Dec 8

 

[galbeedi]

THey are certainly keeping the same messege. 

I guess no American citizen  is leaving sunny and cheap Addis for Kentucky, frgid MInesota or loud New york. They are even offering loans for travel.

On the other hand , the EU is restiring payments to the Kenyan army to stay in Somalia, while Muasaveni is lamenting the defeat of the TPLF. 

It should be clear for all of us now where everyone is standing in the horn of Africa and east Africa. The next battle will be between the next Somali president whether it is Farmaajo , Deni or Hassan Sheikh and Ugandan leader MUsaveni who want to keep his forces in Somalia even if the Somali army is capable of securing the nation.

It is clear Abiy Ahmed wants free, save and independent Somalia. The next threat is from the Sawahilis whether we like or not.

[galbeedi]

Abiy is even talking like Erdogan by demanding changes in the security council. He wants the horn of Africa to have a permenant member. 

THe next president of Somalia whom even he is,  will join the horn of Africa alliance. If  Geelle of Djibouti refuses, he will be easily deposed by the Afar who are at the gates.

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]