PM Abiy announces he will go to the frontlines to lead the army

[Duufaan]

 

[Che -Guevara]

They have been advancing forever. 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Arafaat]

4 hours ago, Duufaan said:

The Tigray will force to negotiate. They are also losing in Adis Ababa front.  Now Amharo farmers marching like Mililik time with the government support, the Tigray has limit choices. Next three weeks they will probably lose much of territory they captured and forced to defend their region.

Irrelevant of the Tigray fighters fate, the Ethiopian conflict isn’t over, the political issue of centralised power vs regional autonomy hasn’t been resolved on the battlefield. As all those people and fighters from the Afar, Somali, Amhara did not fight for a centralised Ethiopia, they fought against the return of a vicious regime that has haunted and tormented the nations of Ethiopia for decades. 

Hopefully genuine political forces can now pursue an agenda for greater regional autonomy through more genuine and constructive avenues, and hopefully Somali’s will play a front role in the advocacy for an alternative discourse for Ethiopia. 
 

Furthermore, I am not certain of Abiy’s political future, he will need to justify the high cost of the civil war and thus create political space for alternative political ideas   and allow greater freedom and decentralisation in the regions. If he tries to cash in any ‘victory’ on the battlefield as political support for his version of a centralised Ethiopia, he risks ending up like the former Ethiopia despots overthrown through military coups and guerrillas. 

Ethiopia’s fate will not be decided by military victories in the rural fields and villages. 

[Che -Guevara]

Arafaat,

One thing is sure the likes of Afars didn't die so Abiy can sit on Melenik's throne.

Amharas and Tigrians are between calaacal and faan depending he has the upper hand on that. Amharas are jubilant and speaking of marching to Mekelle.

[galbeedi]

Folks, the coup has failed completely. The American false alarm couldn't chase Abiy out of Ethiopia. They issues alarm after alarm: airliner could fall from the sky due to anti-aircraft, bombs will go off in Addis, and Ethiopia could be Afghanistan. All failed. If the Americans have any brain left, they would lick their wound and change course.

WE knew the TPLF can't sustain the war that long. THe OLA that supposed to take Addis was nothing but a paper tiger created by the TPLF. The TPLF leadership just send an SOS to US and EU to stop Ethiopian army from entering Tigray. 

 

Before the war, Abiy and company despised the ethnic federalism created by the TPLF, yet despite what people say there won't be any return of centralized power. Abiy will ride the war victory for a while and could probably rule the next 10 years. 

The victors are the Afar, Muslims and Abiy. Last weekend Abiy promoted five Affar officers as generals. THey saved him.

The opposition is fragmented, and it will take time and huge efforts to find a broad based opposition to unseat him. At the moment, the Oromo parties are mostly regionally based and doesn't appeal anyone else, so does the Amhara parties. If Abiy had allowed the real opposition to run last election, he could still had won the majority of votes. 

The position of the Somali region will be weaker than before the war. Mustafe Cagjar was sitting on the side lines. Other than few pronouncements to denounce the TPLF, he hasn't done much to the war effort to defeat the TPLF. 

ONLF, the only well known opposition had joined openly the American campaign against Abiy Ahmed and will be a weak entity with load microphone.

Somaliland will also lose with Abiy led Ethiopia. Both Djibouti and Somaliland had smuggled weapons to the region to create more chaos. Kenya also doesn't look good either. THey became the American brokers with no solutions. Abiy shot down all of his messages.

Certainly it will be a new and different Ethiopia, but you need the federal government to hold together the dysfunctional ethnics .

Che, the TDF are done. last week and this week are crucial. 

 

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

Galbeedi,

They have a month to make something happen, otherwise,  they would have to retreat to Tigray and hope the world would pressure Abiy not to enter Tigray.

If Abiy does win this war, I assure you it will go to his head. Ethiopia always needs an emperor who eventually gets deposed. 

[galbeedi]

22 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

they would have to retreat to Tigray and hope the world would pressure Abiy not to enter Tigray.

Abiy might not rush to enter Tigray at the moment, but the Americans and others have no  way to help the TPLF. Sudan tried to smuggle Tigray forces through Al-Faqasha last weekend and they were ambushed by the Amhara special forces. A dozen Sudanese were killed.

Also, the TPLF might not get back the Amhara inhabited land back. The Amhara have suffered in this war the most , but it seems they will come out as winners. THey have mobilized millions which would overwhelm the the Tigray forces.

The TPLF had devised a very clever strategy to capture few major towns while their sponsors would sound the alarm and the Oromo to make the siege of Addis. They did their duty, but the OLA are no where to be seen. 

In my observations, the Oromo leadership and their masses are not only very smart, but very diligent in their moves. While some had fought, they mostly just sat on the sidelines. Even those who despise Abiy Ahmed were very careful not to create division among them. THey need more time and space to build the Oromo establishment both in the military and bureaucracy. I hope Abiy has realized that his moves to arrest Oromo leadership cost him almost  to lose.

 

 

[Duufaan]

Afar and Amhara will come out of the winners of ethnic groups. Oromo and the Somalis biggest losers because of their division. A great number of them were believing regime change will happen. Overall the Tigray will lose militarily but win politically with the size of their population. 
 

Ethiopia as Christian nation became also false. Muslims are not only east but also north. The world saw the colors of ethiopia. 
 

 

[Che -Guevara]

Duufaan, Galbeedi,

In the end, battles might be won and lost, but the war will persist in one form or another. Ethiopia is a country of contradictions that can't be reconciled organically. It will always require some force to hold it together.

Duufaan,

When you euphoria dies down, and let's assume Abiy wins. If he is again faced with the same problems, this time it will be a well armed Amhara itching to reimpose their hegemony. 

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Arafaat]

15 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

Duufaan, Galbeedi,

In the end, battles might be won and lost, but the war will persist in one form or another. Ethiopia is a country of contradictions that can't be reconciled organically. It will always require some force to hold it together.

Duufaan,

When you euphoria dies down, and let's assume Abiy wins. If he is again faced with the same problems, this time it will be a well armed Amhara itching to reimpose their hegemony. 

 

Che,

I can’t help to sense that you are following the same rationale as those who favor a return to the previous political state of holding a country together by force. It seems your political views aren’t that far away removed from those that you oppose.

 

[Duufaan]

I was in Ethiopia during Mingeste time and visited many times since than. Abiya is much better alternative for majority of people. Haile Salase used to say Muslims are guest in Ethiopia, a country where at least 40% are Muslim if not more. During that time, you would never see a Oromo, Afar and Somali government worker. Last month Ethiopia was training the first Somalia Air force pilot. Ethiopia could be the next Nigeria. Somalis in general see Kenya more positive compare to Ethiopia. The Kenyan bantu scare me but not Ethiopian anymore. The threat of highlanders is fading but Kenyan's bantu and the white man behind them should scare Somalis. They already marginalized Muslim minority population in cost area and their government refusing locals for land rights. NFD people are more danger than ever.

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

On 12/2/2021 at 2:49 PM, Arafaat said:

Che,

I can’t help to sense that you are following the same rationale as those who favor a return to the previous political state of holding a country together by force. It seems your political views aren’t that far away removed from those that you oppose.

 

I don't subscribe to that, but I am saying there is no other way of holding Ethiopia together. I don't see a scenario that accommodates different linguistic groups who are demanding greater autonomy and diverse political parties with diverging interests. PP will simply replace EPRDF should Abiy and his Amhara base succeed in subduing Oromos and Tigrians,