The next prime minister of Ethiopia should be an Affar or Somali....period.

[galbeedi]

If you are seeking news of what is going on in Ethiopia, don;t waste your time on Somali nomad whether he is from Somali Galbeed or the republic.  He will not tell you what is possible or what could happen, but how tghis war in Ethiopia would affect his horse in the Mogadishu contest. Some us had made our mind and desire the victory of Abiy Ahmed for many different reasons.

That is why I always seek to talk to Ethiopians , especially those who have cultural and tradition affinity to us like the Harrari community,  who have long rich history of culture, language  and trade skills . They are similar to our cultured and trades people of Banaadir who lived in the capital for a thousand years. Just like the Banaadiris, they don't brag. Despite their Small numbers they are very visible in any major cities of Ethiopia because of their trade. He is a former intelligenc member under Meles who left Ethiopia dozen or so years ago.

While we were discussing the current Ethiopian conflict, he assured me that unlike 1991, there won't be any public uprising, famine or agitating public for change. In fact, he compared the TPLF JUnta , pushed by the USA,  as Abdulfatah Sisi army trying to crush the people and take over of a public that is backing the elected government of Mursi. He said the American diplomats are witnessing a million people march in maskel square almost every few weeks.

 

I asked him,  what is the man goal of the TPLF at the moment?

He said, " The TPLF doesn't have the man power, military hardware or logistics to enter Addis. THey were relying on chaos theory of certain Oromo groups,  and others to  start shooting within the capital coupled with media campaign to panic everyone. That had failed. Yet, I don't believe that the TPLF is seeking to enter Addis or rule Ethiopia. THeir campaign is to destroy military infrastructure, demoralize the Ethiopian army and at the end control Tigray without fear of any invasion from Ethiopia. In fact, at the moment every Amhara and Oromo will tel you that they  would prefer Ethiopia without Tigray. They even changed the name and use a pejorative word " Chigray" which in Amharic translates " Problem". So, despite the huge causality and suffering, the Tigray region will be independent by default, and no Ethiopia state would dare to force them back. They have their future in their hands, and while these offensive is intended to  trigger the departure of Abiy, their main goal is deffensive to secure all of their boundaries.

Galbeedi:  Tigray are united 100% at the moment, right.?

Harreri man: Yes. There is no more TPLF. They are called TIgray Defense Forces (TDF). For them it is survival or be enslaved by Amhara. Remember this group of people who live in Axum and northern Ethiopia are very unique and historical people. In our Seera of the Prophet ( Salalaahu Calayhi Wasalam) , we learned that our Prophet SCW, was born in the year of the elephant ( Aamul fiil) when, Abyssinian/Yemenis or people from that area invaded southern Arabia, passed Yemen and wanted to conquer the Kabb'a in Makkah. THe Qur'aan narrates in Suuratul Fiil how Allah sent birds with hot stones and defeated them before they reach the Kan'a. So, we are talking about people of unique strange pole of gene. Deep down every Tigrangha believes he could defeat the Amhara any day, it is a very strange ego  that is ingrained in each Tigranga.

 

G: Yet, they can't continue this war against 100 million Ethiopians in eight regions, that will be a suicide.

HM; If you have seen their published secret plan obtained by the Ethiopian government, their plan was to spread chaos in every region and ethnic group  through old contacts, arms smuggling, bribes and other forms. THey wanted to ride others, weaken the moral of other ethnics who are themselves victims and  oppressed by successive Ethiopian  regimes and became the key for disintegration.. So far, other than OLA Shehe, no one is joining. THe Affar were created and nurtured by the TPLF for a long time , but the current leadership is at the forefront of the fighting, Somalis are watching, and others in southern states are in a shock, and are just flowing the orders of the PP leadership. The Amhara are united in their fight to defeat the TPLF,  but at the moment, the Amhara militia has only light weapons, and there is fear that if heavy weapons are given to the militia it might back fire in the long run. The Amhara has the numbers to make the Tigray pay heavy price for if the war continues for a long time.

G; What is next for them?

HM: if there is no significant military gains from the OLA for the next few weeks, they have no choice but to retreat to defensive positions in their region and negotiate.

G; How about Abiy, what is his next move.

HM: The man has to come down from his horse and deal with internal Ethiopia issues before he embarks larger regional issues. He is badly wounded, but he has huge support in Ethiopia at the moment. Everyone assumed that Abiy will be rulling Ethiopia for the next decade, but I don't think he might not finish his term. As soon as the tigray issues settles down and opposition groups come out of the jail, they will demand new elections, mobolize their people and make him one term leader who almost destroyed Ethiopia.

G; His regional integration idea is popular among the horn, who is opposed?

HM: The regional integration on trade and transportation is badly needed. there is almost nothing from Ethiopia to Somalia, from Somalia to Kenya abd vice versa, there is nothing. You are talking about 200 million people devastated by conflict for 40 years. You need $50 billion worth of infrastructure to move goods and people. So, Ethiopia has to decide if it wants these to be done through America led  Build Back Better or by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of China. 

G; No one can deny the man has vision for the region.

HM: Yes. His move to discard the long held Somali issues and force quck unity with Somaliland, Eritrea and others has shaken up the old held theary of the horn being unstable war ravaged area that has to be managed in terms of security and humantarian aide. He thinks, the problem of the region is lack opportunity, trades and isolation from one another. But before he move to his vision , must fix his country.

G. If Abiy couldn't hold raines for too long and change is needed, who should be the next leader.

HM: The next in line Demake Mekonen, the deputy premier who is Amhara. But looking the current ethnic problems, an Amhara leader will have difficulty, although being a Muslim Amhara might  give some currency among Afar, Somali and others. But, I do believe that the next leader of Ethiopia should be either Somali or Afar Ethiopian. 

Remember , credit should be given to late  general Mohamed S. Barre who crushed the Lions of Africa in 1977. He destroyed the most powerful army of Africa and took over Jigjiga, Dire Dhawa, Godey before the Warsaw pact led by Russia, coupled with Cuba, Libya and Yemen came to rescue the Ethiopia on Mengistu. Today, Somalis have the second largest land mass of Ethiopia bordering the Somali republic and Djibouti where most of the trade routes with oil and, livestock go through. Since the Ethiopia of old Abyysinia is over with the demise of the Tigray, a new Ethiopia has to be formed with others being in charge. THe Oromo were in charge under Abiy and it seems things didn't workout as wes supposed, so it is time for chage.

 

G: before the Somalis become in charge of Ethiopia, they must show ambition, and trigger causes that make them indispensable.

HM: They can show resolve, demand more autonomy, confederation and other causes which are just short of seperation. They can even demand independence unless a new Ethiopia is formed. WE have seen Oromo, Tigray and now Oromo. The Affar has shown more resolve to preserve Ethiopia just like the Amhara and others and could be ahead of the Somalis to be prime minister despite their small population. Somalis had paid a high price in terms of changing Abyysinia including the disintegration of the powerful  state of Somalia.

Folks that was the conversation.

I may add that despite the loss of the republic and the formation enclaves for consolation, the next decade could be the Somali decade if we get the right leaders. It was the Somali artists who said, " Jabhada Galbeed iyo Somali Abow guusha way heli". wE dis fine until the evil alphabet nomad rebel went to Mengistu and stabbed as from the back.

Somali regional state leader MUstafe Cagjar is speaking like a leader today.

He said, " We are not waiting the TPLF to come to Addis, get the Tanks, assemble the airplanes and fight us here in Jigjjiga" Hadday Addis imaanayaan nagama Xoog roone anaguna Addis ayyaan tagaynaa". 

That is the sprit.

 

 

Radio Mogadishu did broadcast the first Oromo language programing in historyin 1977.

 

 

 

 

 

[Duufaan]

Rebels are closing in on Ethiopia's capital. Its collapse could bring regional chaos

WWW.NPR.ORG

---

A newly formed rebel alliance led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front is within striking distance of Addis Ababa. A failed state could displace millions of people and stoke more ethnic violence.

The Liberal west media  continue their propaganda. They are talking about war on terror and Somalia. So you can say they are against Abiya vision. The people in the region must to prove them wrong.

[galbeedi]

They don't want to talk about trade and peace among the region. 

THey want the war on terror in Somalia inflamed by Ethiopia. They want Abiy to send soldiers and talk about the danger Somali might cause to the region.

Abiy want to change the channel. Uganda is the the base of the war on terror empire now. Their dictator is his 34th year with no questions asked. If TPLF loses America will leave the horn for good.

[Che -Guevara]

Galbeedi, 

A Somali has no future in Ethiopia and Muslims will not be given authority over historically Christian land. Any Ethiopian state has been and will always be hostile to Somalis.

You are right Tigray does not have the capacity to march to Addis by itself and take over the reins of the state. To his credit, Abiy has put the West in an awkward position, they have a choice between siding with him or watching the disintegrations. Siding with Abiy means there is no one doing their dirty work in the region, in other words, there is no Zenawi, and not siding with him will certainly lead to some sort of confederation with a weak central government, and a strong periphery that will dedicate the center, or simply outright secession. Tigray and in effect other regions will not settle for a very centralized state.

If this conflict showed anything, it is that no one is in a position to fully realize their goals. Ethiopia might turn out to be like Bosnia, an unhappy between people that hate each other.

[Che -Guevara]

Afars are all fired up.

Galbeedi,

An Afar PM will not hesitate to turn his guns on Somalis.

 

 

[galbeedi]

27 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

An Afar PM will not hesitate to turn his guns on Somalis.

Off course, if we keep acting like ugly nomad rebel without a right cause, you create enemies. We shouldn't refuse to be ruled by Affar brothers whom we share culture, custom and tradition. We have been ruled by Amhara, Tigray and other evil Ethiopians like the Derg, why refuse to co-exist with an Affar brother?

[Duufaan]

2 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

Galbeedi, 

A Somali has no future in Ethiopia and Muslims will not be given authority over historically Christian land. Any Ethiopian state has been and will always be hostile to Somalis.

You are right Tigray does not have the capacity to march to Addis by itself and take over the reins of the state. To his credit, Abiy has put the West in an awkward position, they have a choice between siding with him or watching the disintegrations. Siding with Abiy means there is no one doing their dirty work in the region, in other words, there is no Zenawi, and not siding with him will certainly lead to some sort of confederation with a weak central government, and a strong periphery that will dedicate the center, or simply outright secession. Tigray and in effect other regions will not settle for a very centralized state.

If this conflict showed anything, it is that no one is in a position to fully realize their goals. Ethiopia might turn out to be like Bosnia, an unhappy between people that hate each other.

Historically christant? Just only the north

[galbeedi]

5 minutes ago, Duufaan said:

Historically christant? Just only the north

For our grand fathers, it was just yesterday. I did listen to the great Somali composer and playwright Hassan Sheikh Muumin narrating how his father, as a young kid left Harar with his family after Menelik too over  in 1887 and settled Zaylac where he was born. 

Waxa uu odhan jiray laba xadaaradood ayaa iska kay dhalay, Aabahayba Harar buu ku dhashay Hooyadeyna Zaylac.

Che, you raise good points, it either Yugoslavia or unhappy marriage like Bosnia. Either way you need allies.

 

 

[Duufaan]

But the  west will engineer it with outcome they want. That is way they picked up TPLF over the Oromo. So you really know it gone be north. Any change will no be better for Somalis. Do not wish unknown., the guy with Muslim father maybe the better time.

[Arafaat]

Let’s stay with the facts

1. The west doesn’t care about which ethnicity the next PM will be from, they supported Abiy who is an Oromo with a Muslim father. Only Somali’s and some Herreri man Galbeedi had coffee with, seem to care about such nonsense, not understanding Ethiopian political dynamics and what is actually at stake here. 

2. The issue that the West does care about is for Ethiopia not to become a ‘China’ like centralised, autocratic and nationalistic state with a planned economy dominated by state run and dominated companies and private sector, and that Ethiopia neither facilitates or enables the real China to gain greater access and inroad in to the wider region of Africa. 

3.The TPLF have successfully managed to re-brand and sell themselves, to both the West and some opposition forces, as champions of a different vision of Ethiopia, with a ethno-centric decentralised form of governance in which much of the decision making would be on regional level, which logically would find appeal across the country, ethnic states and with opposition forces. 

3. Everyone, including the west, knows that 30 years of brutal centralised and autocratic TPLF rule were quite the opposite of what they are selling us here.

4. But nevertheless do they find appeal and support in the west, and with other states like Egypt, and even support from some opposition forces like the OLA, as the TPLF have the political, military and financial leverage to put a horse in the game and it’s in their interest to challenge the very unappealing political direction of Abiy(see point nr.2), which coincides with the interest of those external and internal actors. 

5. Despite the opportunities for wider political affinity and popular support to a decentralised Ethiopian state with much autonomy for the regions and various ethnic groups, no political forces from the Afar’s, Somali’s, Herrari’s and even Oromo’ have been able to form a force and influence the political discourse and present an alternative to Abiy’s model.

6. Most of the politicians and political parties from the Afar’s, Somali’s, Herrari’s and Oromo have been marked by a lack of a unified political vision or even discussion that could form the basis for a political strategy, or forming political alliances across clans and tribes in order to appeal to the masses. Example, look at Jig Jiga where neither ONLF, Mustafe Cagjar and other opposition can’t seem to change the political narrative beyond the usual and futile Reer Abdulle vs. Reer Abdalle nonsense. 

7. This lack of an alternative political voice and force, made it quite easy for the current regime, to dominate the political landscape through arresting, intimidating, banning and incorporating the few relevant politicians, and selling uncontested its centralised and nationalistic vision that actually only a small minority of Ethiopians seem to support. 

8. Coming back to the subject of the thread, unlike in Somali politics this war and conflict isn’t about the ethnicity of the PM and neither is the solution, it’s about the political direction of Ethiopia. And I am not sure if Somali’s have anything meaningful to contribute to that discussion and direction, as we can’t seem to be able to transcend our usual basic instincts of seeing everything (Ethiopia/Addis) burn (Che), cheerleading  a tribe/clan to loot PM/Presidential seats as if they were camels (Galbeedi), ascribing every outcome to alien or western conspiracies (Duufaan), enjoy the Schadenfreude as the  misfortunes of others gives us a sense of normality in our own failures (MMA), seeing lights and signs of recognition everywhere when there is not even a glimpse in the dark (Xaaji Xunjuf) or be so emotionally scarred to completely lose sight of the current reality and what is actually going today in the here and now (Khadafi).

[Che -Guevara]

Arafaat,

Good arguments, but identity is central to Ethiopia's politics, and different governments since Melenik have found a way to exploit that.  While you and others frame the current situation about the direction of Ethiopian politics and the nature of the future Ethiopian state, the reality is the past, present and the future of Ethiopian politics are the same, an oppressive centralized state that favors one group over others. That has been the case since Melenik. The Derg tried to take the country in a different direction, but eventually, even Mengiste was forced to use identity in order to recruit and fight the Tigrian and Eritrean rebels. This was despite his so-called nationalism.

True, Ethiopians are not as primitive as we are in terms of transcending tribal politics, but the struggle of Tigrians dates back to the 1940s ( May–November 1943 Woyane Rebellion). Selassie sought the help of the British Royal Airforce to put down the rebellion. That rebellion was not necessarily about identity. It was indeed about autonomy. But the rebellion's core support was based on identity. So was the TPLF struggle of the 70s and 80s. In effect, the talk of secession become common those decades hence the formation of deceptive federalism and the inclusion of Article 39. The Tigrians considered themselves as Ethiopian as Amhara, but they understand the share size of their population means their influence will decrease tremendously. This is particularly evident if Ethiopia remains true to its nature of a centralized state favoring one group over others.

We are not talking about a civic-minded citizenry that will elect politicians based on merits. The majority of Ethiopians will vote along tribal lines that is if they are allowed to vote. Either way, Tigrians will come short. The bitter experience of this last year has shown them what is in store.

There is geopolitics in a play, no doubt, but that has its limits. No amount of American influence can stop a hyped ethnic war with so aggravated groups all of whom committed horrific crimes. The best American could hope for a settlement that favors no one and stops the country from exploding. Even then, the core issues will remain unresolved. If you think there is a way that satisfies groups, please share.

Lastly, I wish no harm on anyone especially civilians. I have witnessed war. But horrific crimes have been committed in Ethiopia. These crimes will figure greatly into any settlement. Some nations might not be as forgiving as others. Furthermore, most ethnic groups have empowered extremists among them, from Fano, Oromo Qeerro, etc. Even worse, the PM himself asked the common people to arm themselves and labeled the junta as something to be eliminated. Amharas openly call for the extermination of Oromos and Tigrians. What I wish has no bearing on the reality on the ground.

And I am under no illusion as to what an outright civil war means for the region. It will be a catastrophe of monumental proportion. Somalis will not be spared and we can end up worse than what we are now. All of this does not mean we should ignore the possibility of implosion and brutal ethnic wars.

 

 

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

I don't know about you guys, but I want Abiy Axmed Cali to remain as a Xabashi leader. He is the most Soomaali-friendly Xabashi leader in history, if we are honest about it. Of course, we don't trust him and should not, but anyone who will replace him will be far worse for Soomaaliya and Soomaalis. It is him who practically bahlaha ka jafay maamul goboleedyada ismooday dalal, doing this without being asked much. Occupied Soomaali Galbeed has a Soomaaliya flag, has Soomaaliyeey toosoo as a national anthem. No Tigrey or Xabashi leader would tolerate this.

Abiy Axmed is good for us Soomaalis who want a strong, united Soomaaliya, a weakened one is even better.

[Arafaat]

On 11/9/2021 at 8:39 AM, Che -Guevara said:

 

And I am under no illusion as to what an outright civil war means for the region. It will be a catastrophe of monumental proportion. Somalis will not be spared and we can end up worse than what we are now. All of this does not mean we should ignore the possibility of implosion and brutal ethnic wars.

 

 

The possibility of Ethiopia imploding are indeed real and I have no pretentious of knowing a solution that satisfies all groups, but I think for Somali’s the best course of action is neither to await for Ethiopia’s demise, for a central autocratic state to gain momentum nor hope for a glorious return of the TPLF. But rather pro-actively take a number of steps, irrespective of the civil wars outcome, and to:

-engage in a regional inter-Somali dialogue with all political factions and parties, and to seek consensus  on shared agenda for the Somali region in terms of an advocacy agenda forwards the centre(e.g.bigger share of civil servants in federal institutions, greater budget allocation from key institutions, and other issue’s that Somali need greater autonomy from the centre on(e.g. cross border trade, movement, developing direct diplomatic relations and liaison offices with countries neighbouring the region like Djibouti, Somalia, Somaliland, etc), and for this dialogue to identify pathways to address inter-Somali land disputes and other internal grievances, etc.  this dialogue won’t create immediate solutions but rather prepares Somali region for a common agenda whatever the outcome is in Addis, and also reduces the potential vacuum that could lead to devastating inter-clan wars in the Somali region, and also have a common strategy towards neighbouring regions/tribes as the Oromo and Afar. 

-For Somali elders to enter in to talks with Afar and Oromo elders and traditional leaders to diffuse ethnic tensions, land disputes and violance, this won’t neither lead to immediate agreements but might help to freeze the emerging conflicts along the border and again diffuse any tensions, and prevent bloody violence and attacks.  

-Diplomatically lobby and address with the the Abiy government for greater political, civic space and participation in the Somali region. The local Somali PP branch could try to address grievances by opposition political parties (e.g.ONLF, etc), and make commitments for a greater political participation at local level, and for these parties to participate in municipal and mayoral elections, etc. 

-And lastly, the Somali region seems to be at the moment the most stable region with the least active conflicts, and this gives them leverage to advocate for greater  decentralisation and opportunity to push forward a political agenda that would most serve the Somali’s during this period of uncertainty and fragility in Addis. They could try to seek a political middle ground between TPLF/OLA’s agenda for ‘independence’ from the centre and the PP’s centralised vision. Even if this is not feasible, Somali’s need to keep a cool ahead and try to think few steps ahead and see what is in their interest. We have been in civil wars and instability for so long, surely we should have learned by now one or two things on conflicts as you have rightly stated, as to what war entails and what could be crucial and civil ways to prevent more bloodshed, and a come to a greater political discourse on narrowing the vacuum and preventing vicious cycle of never ending clan and tribal based instability and polarisation. 

[galbeedi]

On 11/8/2021 at 8:22 PM, Arafaat said:

The west doesn’t care about which ethnicity the next PM will be

Look you offer some good analysis on some of the points, but somehow you failed to grasp the foreign intervention of the internal changes in Ethiopia.

 

The TPLF was in disarray sine the unexpected passing of Meles Zanawi in 2012. While Hailemarium Desalyn became premier, open clashes did take place among them. In fact, most of the public finance looting took place from 2012-2017. When the Oromo uprising took place from 2016-2018, the TPLF kept their usual killing of the protesters, executions and mass arrests.

 

The total strike of trade roots, especially trains and highways leading to Addis flowed. The whole country was shut down from Diredhabe to Addis. where 20 million Oromo reside. The ruling party could no longer control every village and town. Then in late 2017, the Oromo regional leadership cooperated with Queero and Jawar Mohamed openly. That is when America and others forced the ruling EPRDF to get another leader within the Oromo Democratic party which was one of the four partners of EPRDF. The chairman of OPD was Lemma Magrassa, but the TPLF and the Americans preferred Abiy who was working with the TPLF since 1991 when he was 15 years old. Even Jawar Mohamed openly objected the coronation of Abiy as a premier. So your idea of foreign powers not having certain ethnic or religious limit tests is invalid.

The TPLF expected Abiy to be a puppet just like the one before him. He was their son who decided to be a leader rather than a puppet. The same thing is happening with America and others.He can not develop or build the needed infrastructure for future growth without the billions the Chines BRI offers Ethiopia. He offered to privirize the national telecom, banks, construction industry and even the national airline, but refused to abandon China. The TPLF could had secured their land, seek independence and negotiate, but decided to march, mostly by the instructions the received  for regime change  and sensing the weakness of the Ethiopian army.

The Idea of Somalis coming to the power corridors of Ethiopia is not far fetched as you assume. None of us had thought the Abyssinian highlanders would lose power and Ethiopia will be led by an Oromo man who has a Muslim heritage. The Oromo Queero not only toppled Tigray power, but also an old empire. When we talk about Somalis coming to Addis, I don't mean the tribal oriented Jigjiga based leadership, absolutely not. There are capable Somalis within the federal government or outside Jigjiga.

 

Furthermore, the Amhara has shown to be incapable of stopping the TPLF advance. Not only last month, but since August when they pushed through historical  town of Lalibella and Waldiya. Abiy Ahmed should have realized this long ago. Even today as we speak, the talk in Addis is to involve Otomo, Affar and others to stop the TPLF. As I said before, the biggest changes of all come through war and the victors set the stage. If Somalis ally themselves with Abiy and punch their weight and become decisive in this war, certainly they will enter the Ethiopian political establishment , but also members of the military establishment of Ethiopia.

 

Today, the Somali tone are set by those who want to replace Mustafe Cagjar, the ONLF, Faisal Rooble and others in Somalia who cheer for the demise of Abiy Ahmed because they see Farmaajo as his allied . WE know who they are against , but they don't say what they want or who they want to replace Abiy with. A member of the ONLF , Mohamuid Ugaas went to Washington and before the American national media said" we want to  throw him by force if he doesn't leave". The national press was shocked. A person with real agenda would have said: " we don't want Ethiopia to implode, and we believe the only way to avoid bloodshed and humanitarian disaster is to find a cease fire and form a transitional government". These are the Somalis who frame their agenda only to their opposition. 

Faisal Rooble who doesn't know anything about military says, half million Ethiopian soldiers went to the Dessie front and 100,000 of them had dies. You can't deploy half million in a mountain train. On the other hand we oppose the corrupt Jigjiga rule for their clan based rule and their backwardness to build anything meaningful. 

Waxaanu u aragnaa qaadicu dariiq shaadh dawlad soo xidhay oo daka magac dawladeed ku dhaca.

 

We all try to adhere with the universal pan Somalism that exist among the diaspora while advocating for our own regions and towns while hoping that Somali anchor state which is the glue that holds everyone together. Yet, deep down, I do believe that the corrupt and useless Somali state of Ethiopia could only exist as long as the federal government of Ethiopia is standing. If Ethiopia goes down, the disintegration of the Somali  state could be similar or even worse of what took place in Somalia. There are almost zero institutions other than clansmen carrying guns and extorting money from innocent civilians.

On 11/8/2021 at 8:22 PM, Arafaat said:

The issue that the West does care about is for Ethiopia not to become a ‘China’ like centralised, autocratic and nationalistic state

This point and this one below are to the point .

On 11/10/2021 at 6:13 PM, Arafaat said:

For Somali elders to enter in to talks with Afar and Oromo elders and traditional leaders to diffuse ethnic tensions, land disputes and violance

AS you mentioned, even Joe Biden himself openly said there is competition between autocracies and democracies. Ethiopia, combined with Somalia, Eritrea and Djibouti with 150 million people,  economic integration and leaders with similar thinking would be a great power in east Africa, the Red Sea and beyond. Usually, nations with 100 million people or more become their own civilizations and huge economic market. So, this war is beyond water carrier TPLF.

On the Somali elders entering talks with neighbors, I totally agree. Besides, the Affar war has showed us that the Somali Liyu police is incapable of fighting real soldiers or those who could match them in terms of fire power. They can certainly kill and abuse unarmed Somali civilians , but not soldiers.  

[Arafaat]

I think we are saying the same, that you need  the sell right kind of political narrative, and in this current state even a Somali could be propelled to the highest office in Ethiopia and gain support from both domestic elites and international powers. 
 

the question however is, what would that narrative be, e.g. something like? 

-We (Somali’s) have for decades put up an armed struggle against the Ethiopian state, but this has lead to the demise of our people, economic and social underdevelopment and to communal disintegration, and rather then advocating for full independence we have adopted an agenda that is better for our people and for Ethiopia, which is to have greater regional autonomy and greater decentralisation of Key government tasks, with the regions having a greater say in the centre and federal government only performing minimum key tasks that can’t be done on regional level such as external policies like foreign, international trade and mobility, inter-regional infrastructure. 

-We(Somali’s) have experienced decades of marginalisation, discrimination and ethnic profiling by the federal government, and our aim is not to strive for an Ethiopia that respects the dignity, diversity, equality, and where no tribe dominates the others and where social justice is adhered. 

-We (Somali’s) have little to no stakes at federal level and will strive towards economic equality and won’t favour Amhara’s, Oromo’s or Tigrays above the others.

-We(Somali’s) are traditional traders and have an entrepreneurial spirits and want Ethiopia to become a real free market that is conducive for  trade, entrepreneurial initiative that will create massive employment and income opportunities for the masses, rather then the current socialistic, planned and government dominated economy that promotes competition between tribes and political corruption with a winner takes all mentality. 
 

-We (Somali’s) want Ethiopia to trade with everyone, not just China. And we don’t want government dominated monopolies but free enterprise, open markets and trade with many countries. 

something like that might work, but it’s not only the message, one would need to have a collective campaign targeting both the international community and the various elites across the tribes and regions of Ethiopia. I am not sure if Somali’s are capable of that nor if they can put a internal differences aside for a common goal, or at least come together for a common goal despite having some political and clan related differences/disputes.